Q2 业绩承压，期待暑期旺季回暖 长白山(603099) 证券研究报告 教育/ 公司点评 / 2025.09.01 投资评级:增持(维持) | 基本数据 | 2025-08-29 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 44.90 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 2.67 | | 每股净资产(元) | 4.27 | | 总股本(亿股) | 2.67 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -7% 23% 54% 85% 115% 146% 长白山 沪深300 分析师 耿荣晨 SAC 证书编号：S0160525070002 gengrc@ctsec.com 分析师 周诗琪 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060006 zhousq@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《关注公司四季度冰雪游主题催化》 2024-10-29 2. 《冰雪游显著带动业绩，沈白高铁持续推 进》 2024-08-08 3. 《冰雪游带动业绩高增，关注外部交通改 善》 2024-04-27 核心观点 | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for Jiuhua Tourism (603199.SH) [2][7] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in tourism and cultural consumption in China, with a strategic focus on expanding its business through various initiatives [6][7] - The company plans to raise up to 500 million yuan through a private placement to fund projects aimed at enhancing its tourism offerings, including the construction of a new cable car and hotel upgrades [5][6] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - Jiuhua Tourism aims to raise up to 500 million yuan for projects including the construction of the Lion Peak cable car, hotel renovations, and transportation upgrades, which are expected to enhance the visitor experience and increase revenue [5] - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a 12% increase in visitor numbers and a 15% increase in revenue, reaching 5.65 million visitors and 7.65 billion yuan in revenue [6] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 2.01 yuan, 2.27 yuan, and 2.51 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18, 16, and 14 [7][9] - Revenue is expected to grow from 76.4 billion yuan in 2024 to 102.8 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.5% [9][10] Business Strategy - The company is leveraging its resources from the Jiuhua Mountain area to create a comprehensive tourism ecosystem, including health food and local cuisine brands, aiming to establish a tourism complex in the Chizhou region [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that Emei Mountain A's performance in the first half of 2025 is under pressure due to a decline in visitor numbers, but there are future opportunities for expansion in tourist capacity and new business developments [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In 1H25, Emei Mountain A achieved revenue of 460 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 120 million yuan, down 8.5% year-on-year [2]. - The second quarter saw revenue of 230 million yuan, a decline of 9.3% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 7.4% to 60 million yuan [2]. - Visitor numbers to the Emei Mountain scenic area fell to 2.095 million, a decrease of 6.5% year-on-year, primarily attributed to weather factors [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from mountain ticket sales was 122 million yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year; cable car services generated 185 million yuan, down 7.5% [2]. - Hotel revenue decreased by 12.1% to 83 million yuan, impacted by reduced accommodation demand [2]. - Tea sales revenue fell significantly by 33.9% to 27 million yuan, while performance in the performing arts segment grew slightly by 1.4% to 5.4 million yuan [2]. - Travel agency revenue surged by 52.5% to 4.8 million yuan, benefiting from structural optimization and market expansion [2]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 1H25 was 48.1%, a decline of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by reduced margins in key business areas [3]. - The net profit margin improved slightly to 26.5%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to increased interest income and reduced financial expenses [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to enhance its tourist capacity significantly with ongoing infrastructure developments, including the expansion of the cable car system [3]. - New business initiatives in tea, tea beer, and tourism project development are anticipated to provide additional growth opportunities [3]. - Forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 280 million yuan, 300 million yuan, and 320 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 26X, 25X, and 23X [3].