Summary of the Conference Call for Alliance Electronics Company Overview - **Company**: Alliance Electronics - **Industry**: Defense and Electronics Key Points and Arguments 1. **Revenue Projections**: Alliance Electronics expects revenue in 2025 to range between 100 million to 200 million RMB, driven by precision-guided products, data link products, and electronic countermeasure projects. The new network project is anticipated to start validation bidding in the second half of the year, indicating new growth opportunities [2][4]. 2. **Gross Margin Outlook**: The company anticipates a gradual improvement in overall gross margin levels. Although short-term concentration on specific models may impact margins, long-term expansion of single product scales is expected to reduce manufacturing costs. The value of integrated military protection products is also projected to increase, contributing to margin enhancement [2][6]. 3. **Military Trade Focus**: Alliance Electronics is increasing its investment in military trade, with a focus on products that have lower raw material costs and higher gross margins (60%-70% or even higher). The company plans to enhance military trade cooperation to improve overall gross margin levels [2][8]. 4. **Future Revenue and Margin Expectations**: If the industry develops healthily, the company tracks over 100 models that could stabilize revenue between 1 billion to 2 billion RMB in the coming years, with an average gross margin expected to reach 50%-60% due to increased military trade investment and domestic model development [2][9]. 5. **Employee Incentives and Shareholding**: The decision for a small proportion of share transfer is based on employee incentives and team contribution considerations. The company aims to reward shareholders and enhance team cohesion, with no further reduction plans anticipated [2][10]. 6. **Cost Structure**: The main business cost structure indicates that labor costs account for approximately 50%-60% of total costs, with the remainder being fixed costs. Sales, management, and R&D expenses are not included in manufacturing costs [11]. 7. **Military Trade Contribution**: In 2025, military trade exports are expected to account for about 20% of total sales, with signed contracts amounting to approximately 500 million RMB, including military trade-related orders [13]. 8. **Product Line Performance**: In the 700-800 million RMB order range for 2025, countermeasure equipment accounts for over 100 million RMB, while communication and navigation equipment constitutes the majority. The integration of data link and navigation systems is being managed by the communication navigation division [14]. 9. **Inventory Levels**: High inventory levels are attributed to the military industry, with many materials on hold leading to accumulation. Significant reductions in inventory levels are expected this year due to order deliveries [23]. 10. **Impact of Geopolitical Events**: The demand for missile supply chain replenishment is significant, and while the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to some model adjustments or cancellations, the overall impact on the company is limited due to its diverse model coverage and multiple military clients [24]. Additional Important Information - **Smart Ammunition Development**: The company has a broad layout in the smart ammunition sector, including missiles, bombs, and rockets, with a focus on military trade markets in North Africa, the Middle East, and Pakistan, which are expected to yield higher margins [3][25]. - **Future Sales Goals**: The company aims to achieve annual sales of 1 billion to 2 billion RMB within the next two years, specifically between 2026 and 2027 [20]. - **Revenue Recognition**: The revenue recognition process for 2025 is expected to follow historical patterns, with the second half of the year being the peak for deliveries and confirmations [28].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The company plans to achieve a revenue growth of 90% year-on-year in 2025, aiming to turn losses into profits [2][4] - The special equipment sector is expected to become a new growth point, benefiting from the increase in demand for smart ammunition [3][4] - The company is a leader in the ultra-hard materials market and is expected to maintain its market position while benefiting from the growth in demand for photovoltaic diamond wire [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.57 billion yuan, a decrease of 25% year-on-year, and a net profit of -327 million yuan, a decline of 140% [1][4] - The revenue from the special equipment segment was 2.39 billion yuan, down 29% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 9.61%, a decrease of 23.92 percentage points [1] - The ultra-hard materials segment generated 1.76 billion yuan in revenue, down 23% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 25.88%, a decrease of 9.77 percentage points [1] Future Projections - The company forecasts a revenue of 8.72 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 91% increase from 2024 [4] - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 325 million yuan, 422 million yuan, and 527 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 30% and 25% in 2026 and 2027 [4] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 71, 55, and 44 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Market Position - The company is the only publicly listed platform for ammunition under the Weaponry Group and is involved in the production of various munitions [3] - The company’s subsidiary, North Red Sun, has achieved profitability, indicating improvements in core product pricing and internal operations [3] - The demand for long-range rocket artillery is expected to grow due to its significance in modern warfare, particularly highlighted by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The company plans to achieve a revenue growth of 90% year-on-year in 2025, aiming to turn losses into profits [2][4] - The special equipment sector is expected to become a new growth point, benefiting from the increase in demand for smart ammunition [3][4] - The company is a leader in the ultra-hard materials market and is expected to maintain its market position while benefiting from the growth in demand for photovoltaic diamond wire [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.57 billion yuan, a decrease of 25% year-on-year, and a net profit of -327 million yuan, a decline of 140% [1][4] - The revenue from the special equipment segment in 2024 was 2.39 billion yuan, down 29% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 9.61%, a decrease of 23.92 percentage points [1] - The ultra-hard materials segment generated a revenue of 1.764 billion yuan, down 23% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 25.88%, a decline of 9.77 percentage points [1] Future Projections - The company forecasts a revenue of 8.721 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 91% increase from 2024 [4] - Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 325 million yuan, 422 million yuan, and 527 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 30% and 25% in the following years [4] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is estimated to be 71, 55, and 44 respectively [4] Market Position - The company is the only publicly listed platform for ammunition under the Weaponry Group and is involved in the production of various munitions including large-caliber shells and rockets [3] - The company’s subsidiary, North Red Sun, has achieved profitability, indicating improvements in core product pricing and internal operations [3]