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船舶费、稀土管制连环出 中美博弈升温如何影响全球贸易格局?丨夜话
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-10-11 01:17
近期中美经贸博弈持续升温,引发全球市场关注。先是在美国商务部宣布将多家中国实体列入出口管 制"实体清单"后,中国商务部宣布将反无人机技术公司等外国实体列入不可靠实体清单,并会同海关总 署依法对超硬材料、稀土等相关物项实施出口管制措施;接着,针对美国自10月14号起对中国公司拥有 或运营的船舶、中国造船舶、中国籍船舶加收港口服务费,中国交通运输部也宣布对美船舶收取船舶特 别港务费。此外,航空、半导体等领域也成为双方博弈的焦点领域。那么本轮中美经贸博弈将如何影响 全球贸易格局?又是否会成为下一阶段中美经贸谈判的"筹码"?今晚《夜话》邀您重点关注。 ...
出口王炸三连,中国开始反制!
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-10-10 10:11
连甩王炸,一口气发出4个出口管制,捏了捏全球高科技产业的命脉。 比如说像稀土,它会影响汽车、军工、半导体等多个产业。稀土包括17种元素:镧、铈、钕、镝、 铽……名字听着像化学课的噩梦,但它们无处不在——从智能手机的屏幕、特斯拉的电机、F-35战机的 雷达,到风力发电的永磁体、导弹的制导系统,全都离不开它们。 换句话说,没有稀土,现代文明就"卡壳"了。特别是美国,美国地质调查局表示,2020年至2023年,美 国70%的稀土化合物和金属进口来自中国。美国兰德公司的一份报告则指出,只要中国对美稀土断供90 天,就足以使美国78%的国防承包商关闭生产线。 特斯拉首席执行官马斯克今年4月表示,稀土磁铁出口限制已经扰乱了擎天柱人形机器人的生产,该机 器人手臂上的马达需要稀土材料。与此同时,福特汽车公司5月因稀土零部件短缺而暂时关闭了位于芝 加哥的一家工厂。 要知道,中国稀土(000831)的产量占全球7成,并且加工能力更是有全球垄断的实力,全球93%得稀 土都要运到中国来深加工。这波把开采设备和相关药剂管一管,就可以让中国在稀土圈的统治力更加稳 固和持久。 又比如说,锂电池70%都是在中国制造的,我们同样有话语权,德国 ...
每日投行/机构观点梳理(2025-10-10)
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-10-10 09:51
国外 1. 花旗:预计9月核心通胀将有所降温 花旗经济学家预计,9月份核心CPI将上涨0.28%,低于8月份的0.35%。虽然关税可能会使商品价格保持 坚挺,但住房通胀放缓应会缓解整体服务通胀。政府关门可能会推迟数据的发布,但花旗表示,劳动力 市场走软和房价降温降低了持续通胀的风险。 2. 巴克莱:黄金上涨反映市场对现有财政与货币秩序的不信任 巴克莱全球研究主席Ajay Rajadhyaksha在一份报告中表示,今年黄金价格的上涨,标志着市场对现有财 政和货币秩序的不信任感正在加剧。他指出,四个主要经济体——美国、英国、法国和日本——的债务 负担均超过各自GDP的100%,而它们的财政状况仍在恶化。他补充说:"最重要的是,几乎没有政治意 愿去进行财政整顿。"与此同时,其他传统的避险资产,例如日元和瑞士法郎,正在失去部分吸引力。 Rajadhyaksha称,黄金通常在经济摇摇欲坠或金融市场崩溃时上涨。他认为,尽管金融市场目前表现健 康,但黄金最近的上涨应该引起政策制定者的警惕。 3. 荷兰国际:预计黄金牛市将持续,但"世界和平"可能导致金价下跌 荷兰国际集团认为黄金的牛市仍有进一步上涨空间。该机构预计黄金价格将 ...
宏观日报:关注有色上游价格波动-20251010
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 07:20
Group 1: Industry Overview Upstream - Black: Glass prices are rising [2] - Agriculture: Egg prices have significantly declined [2] - Non - ferrous: Copper prices are rising [2] Midstream - Chemical: PX operating rate has declined, while urea operating rate is rising; PX operating rate was at a high level [2] - Energy: Power plant coal consumption is at a low level [2] Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have slightly recovered [2] - Service: The number of domestic flights is at a three - year high due to holidays [2] Group 2: Industry Events Production Industry - On October 9, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued 4 announcements to implement export controls on items such as super - hard materials, some rare - earth equipment and raw materials, some medium - heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [1] - On October 9, three departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on the technical requirements for new energy vehicles eligible for vehicle purchase tax exemption from 2026 - 2027, adjusting the technical requirements for pure - electric passenger cars and plug - in (including extended - range) hybrid passenger cars [1] Service Industry - China and India will resume direct flights by the end of October this year [1] Group 3: Key Data - On October 9, the spot price of corn was 2237.1 yuan/ton, down 2.12% year - on - year; the spot price of eggs was 6.3 yuan/kg, down 12.93%; the spot price of palm oil was 9598.0 yuan/ton, up 4.03%; the spot price of cotton was 14764.2 yuan/ton, down 0.84%; the average wholesale price of pork was 18.6 yuan/kg, down 3.47%; the spot price of copper was 85823.3 yuan/ton, up 7.20%; the spot price of zinc was 22140.0 yuan/ton, up 1.45% [33] - For non - ferrous metals, on October 9, the spot price of aluminum was 20970.0 yuan/ton, up 1.34%; the spot price of nickel was 124000.0 yuan/ton, down 0.32%; another spot price of aluminum was 16868.8 yuan/ton, down 0.95%; the spot price of rebar was 3174.5 yuan/ton, down 0.64% [33] - For other metals, on October 9, the spot price of iron ore was 792.2 yuan/ton, down 1.94%; the spot price of wire rod was 3357.5 yuan/ton, down 0.52%; the spot price of glass was 15.6 yuan/square meter, up 3.45% [33] - For non - metals, on October 9, the spot price of natural rubber was 14758.3 yuan/ton, down 1.34%; the China Plastic City price index was 788.5, down 0.21% [33] - For energy, on October 9, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 62.6 dollars/barrel, down 1.42%; the spot price of Brent crude oil was 66.3 dollars/barrel, down 1.25%; the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 3762.0 yuan/ton, down 2.39%; the coal price was 791.0 yuan/ton, down 0.25% [33] - For chemicals, on October 9, the spot price of PTA was 4564.5 yuan/ton, down 0.18%; the spot price of polyethylene was 7348.3 yuan/ton, up 0.02%; the spot price of urea was 1583.8 yuan/ton, down 4.31%; the spot price of soda ash was 1262.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national cement price index was 135.4, up 0.44% [33] - For real estate, on October 9, the building materials composite index was 113.0 points, down 1.22%; the national concrete price index was 91.7 points, down 0.02% [33]
国新证券每日晨报-20251010
Domestic Market Overview - The A-share market opened positively in October, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3933.97 points, up 1.32%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 13725.56 points, up 1.47% [1][4][9] - The total trading volume of the entire A-share market reached 26,718 billion, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1][4][9] - Among the 30 sectors, 22 sectors saw an increase, with non-ferrous metals, steel, and coal leading the gains, while consumer services, media, and real estate experienced significant declines [1][4][9] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.52%, the S&P 500 down by 0.28%, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 0.08% [2][4] - Boeing's stock dropped over 4%, leading the decline in the Dow, while the technology sector saw a slight increase, with Facebook rising over 2% and Nvidia up more than 1% [2][4] News Highlights - China has implemented export controls on rare earths, superhard materials, and lithium batteries, marking a significant regulatory move [3][11][14] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are addressing issues of price disorder to maintain a stable market price order [15] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has adjusted the technical requirements for tax exemptions on new energy vehicles for 2026-2027 [16][17] - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, domestic travel reached 888 million person-times, with total spending exceeding 809 billion [18]
研究所日报-20251010
Yintai Securities· 2025-10-10 05:53
1.国家发改委、市场监管总局发布《关于治理价格无序竞争 维护良好市场价格秩序的公告》。点评:《公告》提出, 价格竞争是市场竞争的重要方式之一,但无序竞争会对行业发展、产品创新、质量安全等造成负面影响,不利于国民 经济健康发展。《公告》的出台是国内"反内卷"的最新举措,其提出的调研评估行业平均成本、加强价格监管、规 范招标投标行为等多项措施,将促进各行业有序、良性发展。 2.中国对稀土、超硬材料、锂电池等相关物项实施出口管制。点评:10月9日,商务部发布了两项关于加强稀土相关 物项出口管制的公告,分别对境外相关稀土物项、稀土相关技术实施出口管制;同日下午,商务部还联合海关总署明 确对超硬材料、稀土设备和原辅料、钬等5种中重稀土、锂电池和人造石墨负极材料相关物项实施出口管制。商务部 新闻发言人指出,一段时间以来,部分境外组织和个人将原产中国的稀土管制物项直接或者加工后再转移、提供给有 关组织和个人,对国际和平稳定造成不利影响,也有损防扩散国际努力。 3.当地时间10月9日,美国共和党提出的结束美国政府停摆的法案未能在参议院获得足够票数,法案未获通过。点评: 2025年10月1日0时起,美国联邦政府因国会未能在9月 ...
每日投资策略-20251010
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-10-10 05:50
招银国际研究部 2025 年 10 月 10 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业及公司点评 全球市场观察 邮件:research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌(%) | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,753 | -0.29 | 33.36 | | 恒生国企 | 9,530 | 0.07 | 30.73 | | 恒生科技 | 6,471 | -0.66 | 44.83 | | 上证综指 | 3,934 | 1.32 | 17.37 | | 深证综指 | 2,550 | 1.21 | 30.27 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,262 | 0.73 | 52.31 | | 美国道琼斯 | 46,358 | -0.52 | 8.97 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,735 | -0.28 | 14.51 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 23,025 | -0.08 | 19.23 | | 德国 DAX | 24,611 | 0.06 | 23.62 ...
净买入508.05亿元 今年新高、历史次高!
| 上证指数 = 深证成指 | 北证50 | | --- | --- | | 3913.80 13471.74 | 1513.61 | | -20.17 -0.51% - 253.82 -1.85% - - 12.20 -0.80% | | | 沪深300 创业板指 | 科创综指 | | 3150.78 4650.58 | 1680.88 | | -111.04 -3.40% --58.90 -1.25% --63.39 -3.63% | | A股主要股指早盘表现 资金面上,杠杆资金节后加速进场。交易所今日盘前公布的数据显示,A股融资净买入额在10月9日当天达到508.05亿元,为今年以来新 高,在历史上仅次于2024年10月8日(1074.86亿元)。 今日早盘,A股市场高位震荡,前期火热的人工智能、固态电池等热点题材出现调整,拖累创业板指跌幅较深。截至午间休市,上证指 数报3913.80点,下跌0.51%;深证成指、创业板指分别下跌1.85%和3.40%。 个股方面,10月9日,中兴通讯、新易盛、北方稀土融资净买入额均超10亿元,排名前三;赛力斯、寒武纪-U、中信证券、紫金矿业、 海康威视、东方财富、中科 ...
第一创业晨会纪要-20251010
6 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 10 月 10 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_:Summary] 一、产业综合组: 昨日 A 股上证指数突破 3900 点,再创近 10 年来的新高,成交量也较上一交易日 明显增加。不过中芯国际、佰维存储等半导体龙头公司股价出现明显的高开低走。 虽然盘后传出公司受 PE 超过 300 倍两融折算率均调为零影响,但是港股不受该政 策影响,也先于 A 股调整,且调整幅度更大。我们认为市场有较大的新高后获利 了结的情绪。同时昨日商务部等发布了对稀土、锂电材料、超硬材料等的出口管 制措施,总体可以影响 14nm 及以下的半导体生产,结合最近美国新闻不断报道中 国在今年 5 月以后就停止了每年约 150 亿美元的美国大豆采购,因此也可以看出 近期中美的关税谈判交锋应该是非常激烈。因此我们认为后续市场的走势可能进 入震荡为主的概率较高。 扬杰科技昨日公布了 2025 年第三季度的业绩预告,预计前三季度归属与母公司的 净利润为 93,675.41 万元-100,366.51 万元,比上年同期增长 40%-50%。扣非后 的净利润 86,570.86 万元-93,261.96 ...
午评:沪指半日跌0.51% 电池、半导体等热门赛道股集体调整
转自:新华财经 新华财经北京10月10日电 (胡晨曦)A股三大指数10月10日早盘集体调整,创业板指领跌。盘面上,燃 气股逆势走强,大众公用、洪通燃气涨停;服装、乳业等消费股活跃,安正时尚、庄园牧场等封板。下 跌方面,半导体板块大幅调整,东芯股份、华虹公司、晶合集成等大跌超10%,佰维存储、中芯国际、 芯原股份跌幅居前;固态电池概念股下挫,先导智能、利元亨跌超10%;黄金股今日回调,西部黄金、 晓程科技、赤峰黄金领跌。 截至午间收盘,沪指报3913.80点,跌幅0.51%,成交7425亿元;深证成指报13471.74点,跌幅1.85%, 成交9014亿元;创业板指报3150.78点,跌幅3.40%,成交4035亿元。科创50指数报1467.74点,跌幅 4.64%,总成交额约781亿元。 热点板块 民政部部长陆治原10月10日在国新办举行的"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会上介绍,"十 四五"期间,初步建立全国困难群众动态监测和常态化帮扶机制,在巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果的同时,实 现了同乡村振兴的有效衔接,全国城乡低保平均标准较2020年分别增长19.6%和21.3%,常态化保障低 保对象3940万人 ...