1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures main contract showed a weak and volatile trend this week, with a decline of 5.41%. As of the end - of - week closing, the main contract was quoted at 143,860 yuan/ton. The macro - economic environment features the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026. In terms of fundamentals, the price of lithium ore has weakened with the回调 of lithium carbonate prices. The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to remain sufficient, and the demand is improving. The overall industrial inventory is slightly decreasing. The report suggests light - position short - term long trading at low prices, while paying attention to trading rhythm and risk control [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Performance**: The lithium carbonate main contract was weak and volatile on the weekly line, with a decline of 5.41% and a closing price of 143,860 yuan/ton [5]. - **Macro - environment**: In 2026, a more proactive fiscal policy will be implemented, focusing on seven aspects such as supporting the construction of a strong domestic market and accelerating high - level scientific and technological self - reliance. - **Fundamentals** - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium ore weakened, overseas miners were more willing to sell at favorable prices, and smelters were more active in inquiring and buying [5]. - **Supply**: Upstream smelters adopted a price - holding and selling - sparing strategy, and the weekly inventory of smelters increased slightly. The export volume and average price of Chilean lithium carbonate increased significantly, and the domestic supply is expected to remain sufficient [5]. - **Demand**: Downstream battery factories maintained a strategy of buying on dips. The spot market trading sentiment became active as the lithium price declined, and the downstream inventory increased weekly [5]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Light - position short - term long trading at low prices, with attention to trading rhythm and risk control [5]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1. Futures Price - The futures price of lithium carbonate showed a weakening trend. As of March 20, 2026, the closing price of the main contract was 143,860 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8,220 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was 1,140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,420 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2.2. Spot Price - The spot price of lithium carbonate also weakened. As of March 20, 2026, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 149,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 5,140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,780 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3. Upstream Market Conditions 3.3.1. Lithium Spodumene - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) weakened. As of March 20, 2026, the average price was 2,445 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 60 US dollars/ton [21]. 3.3.2. Lithium Mica - The price of lithium mica also weakened. As of March 20, 2026, the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 13,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton; the average price of lithium mica (2% ≤ Li₂O < 3%) was 6,825 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 463 yuan/ton [25]. 3.4. Industry Conditions 3.4.1. Supply Side - **Import and Export**: As of February 2026, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 26,426.79 tons, a decrease of 431.27 tons from January, a decline of 1.61%, and a year - on - year increase of 114.36%. The monthly export volume was 596.077 tons, an increase of 124.52 tons from January, an increase of 26.41%, and a year - on - year increase of 42.9% [31]. - **Production**: As of February 2026, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 53,520 tons, a decrease of 5,950 tons from January, a decline of 10.01%, and a year - on - year increase of 49.96%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [31]. 3.4.2. Demand Side - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: As of March 20, 2026, the average price was 111,000 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week. As of February 2026, the monthly output of electrolyte was 184,380 tons, a decrease of 33,220 tons from January, a decline of 15.27%, and a year - on - year increase of 37.87% [34]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 57,600 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,300 yuan/ton. As of February 2026, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 267,980 tons, an increase of 22,900 tons from January, an increase of 9.34%, and a year - on - year increase of 67.91%. The monthly operating rate was 55%, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 2% [41]. - **Ternary Materials**: As of February 2026, the monthly output of ternary materials was 53,590 tons, a decrease of 5,970 tons from January, a decline of 10.02%, and a year - on - year increase of 19.3%. The monthly operating rate was 45%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of 811 - type, 622 - type, and 523 - type ternary materials remained stable [44]. - **Lithium Manganate**: As of February 2026, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 9,470 tons, a decrease of 270 tons from January, a decline of 2.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.61%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 56,000 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week [49]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of February 2026, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 13,120 tons, a decrease of 2,510 tons from January, a decline of 16.06%, and a year - on - year increase of 108.59%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 400,500 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week [52]. 3.4.3. Application Side - **New Energy Vehicle Sales**: As of February 2026, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 41.18%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 0.87%. The monthly production was 694,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 33.33%; the sales volume was 765,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 19.05% [56]. - **New Energy Vehicle Exports**: As of February 2026, the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 583,000, a year - on - year increase of 106.74% [59]. 3.5. Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.24, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to construct a long straddle option strategy to bet on increased volatility [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be in a stage of sufficient supply and fair demand, with prices likely to fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions at low prices with a light position and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Summary - **Market Performance**: The main contract of lithium carbonate showed a weak and fluctuating trend on the weekly line, with a decline of 2.61%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 152,080 yuan/ton [7]. - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In February, China's CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year, the highest in nearly three years, and the core CPI increased by 1.8% year - on - year. The national PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for three consecutive months [7]. - **Raw Material Side**: Lithium ore prices fluctuated with the high - level oscillation of lithium carbonate prices. Mines still had a strong sentiment of holding prices, and smelters were also quite active in purchasing and inquiring [7]. - **Supply Side**: Smelters' production resumption was basically completed, and the operating rate rebounded. Upstream and traders still had the sentiment of holding prices and being reluctant to sell, and there were some operations of releasing goods at high prices. The export from Chile decreased in February, and it was expected that the domestic import volume might slightly converge after the arrival of the shipping schedule, but the overall supply of domestic lithium carbonate remained sufficient [7]. - **Demand Side**: Downstream demand was cautious, mostly adopting the strategy of purchasing at low prices. The trading volume in the spot market was a bit light, and the overall industrial inventory decreased slightly. The demand had resilience, but its sustainability needed further observation [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of March 13, 2026, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract was 152,080 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4,080 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread of lithium carbonate was 4,420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6,500 yuan/ton [13]. - **Spot Price**: As of March 13, 2026, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 159,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,750 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 6,920 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7,830 yuan/ton [19]. 3.3. Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: As of March 13, 2026, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 2,505 US dollars/ton, remaining flat week - on - week. The spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.8752, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36% [23]. - **Lithium Mica**: As of March 13, 2026, the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 14,000 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week. The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 7,288 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 113 yuan/ton [27]. 3.4. Industry Conditions - **Supply Side**: As of December 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,988.66 tons, an increase of 1,933.47 tons from November, a growth rate of 8.77%, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.43%. The monthly export volume was 911.898 tons, an increase of 152.66 tons from November, a growth rate of 20.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 45.97%. As of January 2026, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 59,470 tons, an increase of 2,650 tons from December, a growth rate of 4.66%, and a year - on - year increase of 69.29%. The operating rate in that month was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [33]. - **Demand Side** - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: As of March 13, 2026, the average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium was 111,000 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week. As of January 2026, the monthly output of electrolyte was 219,600 tons, a decrease of 13,550 tons from December, a decline of 5.81%, and a year - on - year increase of 50.76% [36]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 59,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 650 yuan/ton. As of February 2026, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 267,980 tons, an increase of 22,900 tons from January, a growth rate of 9.34%, and a year - on - year increase of 67.91%. The operating rate in that month was 55%, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 2% [40]. - **Ternary Materials**: As of February 2026, the monthly output of ternary materials was 53,590 tons, a decrease of 5,970 tons from January, a decline of 10.02%, and a year - on - year increase of 19.3%. The operating rate in that month was 45%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811 type, 622 type, and 523 type remained stable [45]. - **Lithium Manganate**: As of February 2026, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 9,470 tons, a decrease of 270 tons from January, a decline of 2.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.61%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 56,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 yuan/ton [50]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 400,500 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week. As of February 2026, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 13,120 tons, a decrease of 2,510 tons from January, a decline of 16.06%, and a year - on - year increase of 108.59% [53]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: As of February 2026, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 41.18% of the cumulative sales of all vehicles (penetration rate), a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 0.87%. The monthly production of new energy vehicles was 694,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 33.33%; the sales volume was 765,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 19.05%. The cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 583,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 106.74% [57][60]. 3.5. Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.55, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to build a short straddle option to bet on increasing volatility [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price showed an upward trend this week, with a weekly increase of 14.84% and an amplitude of 15.06%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 152,640 yuan/ton. In the future, due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday, both supply and demand in the lithium carbonate market will decrease, and the inventory in the industry will gradually decline. It is expected that demand will pick up again after downstream enterprises resume work after the holiday. The report suggests light - position trading with a focus on controlling risks [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Weekly Highlights - **Market Performance**: The main contract of lithium carbonate showed a volatile upward trend, with a price increase of 14.84% and an amplitude of 15.06%. The closing price of the main contract was 152,640 yuan/ton [5]. - **Macro - economic Data**: In January, China's CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year; PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, with the decline in the year - on - year figure narrowing by 0.5 percentage points to 1.4% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Lithium ore prices fluctuated with lithium carbonate prices. Miners were willing to sell, but smelters were cautious. The supply decreased due to the approaching holiday and logistics suspension. Demand was weak as pre - holiday purchases were completed and the market was on holiday. The overall market is expected to be in a situation of double - decline in supply and demand, with inventory gradually decreasing and demand expected to pick up after the holiday [5]. - **Investment Advice**: Light - position trading with a focus on controlling risks [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of February 13, 2026, the closing price of the main contract of lithium carbonate was 152,640 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 19,720 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 8,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,200 yuan/ton [11]. - **Spot Price**: As of February 13, 2026, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 143,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9,250 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 8,890 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10,470 yuan/ton [17]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: As of February 13, 2026, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was $1,950/ton, a week - on - week decrease of $45/ton. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.9016, a week - on - week decrease of 0.56% [21]. - **Lithium Mica**: As of the latest data, the average price of lithium mica (2.0% - 3%) was 6,350 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous week [28]. - **Phosphorus Lithium Aluminum Stone**: As of February 13, 2026, the average price of phosphorus lithium aluminum stone was 14,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 400 yuan/ton [28]. 3.4 Industry Supply and Demand - **Supply Side**: As of December 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,988.66 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1933.47 tons (8.77%) and a year - on - year decrease of 14.43%. The monthly export volume was 911.898 tons, a month - on - month increase of 152.66 tons (20.11%) and a year - on - year increase of 45.97%. As of January 2026, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 59,470 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2650 tons (4.66%) and a year - on - year increase of 69.29%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [33]. - **Demand Side** - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: As of February 13, 2026, the average price was 130,000 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous week. As of January 2026, the monthly output of electrolyte was 219,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,550 tons (5.81%) and a year - on - year increase of 50.76% [36]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of the latest data, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 55,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,250 yuan/ton. As of January 2026, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 245,080 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24,250 tons (9%) and a year - on - year increase of 37.76%. The monthly operating rate decreased by 60% month - on - month and 57% year - on - year [43]. - **Ternary Materials**: As of January 2026, the monthly output of ternary materials was 59,560 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 870 tons (1.44%) and a year - on - year increase of 19.31%. The monthly operating rate decreased by 50% month - on - month and 44% year - on - year. As of the latest data, the prices of 811 - type, 622 - type, and 523 - type ternary materials remained stable [46]. - **Lithium Manganate**: As of January 2026, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 9,740 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 290 tons (2.89%) and a year - on - year increase of 15.95%. As of the latest data, the average price of lithium manganate was 54,000 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous week [51]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of the latest data, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 400,500 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous week. As of January 2026, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 15,630 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 140 tons (0.89%) and a year - on - year increase of 131.56% [54]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: As of January 2026, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 40.28%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.65% and a year - on - year increase of 1.32%. The monthly output was 1,041,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 39.41%; the sales volume was 945,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 44.74%. The cumulative export volume was 302,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 101.33% [57][61]. 3.5 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset was - 0.81, presenting an inverse arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to short volatility by constructing a short straddle option strategy [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage where supply is temporarily stable and demand is improving, with inventory continuing to decline. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions on dips with a light position and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate opened high and closed low on the weekly line, with a change rate of - 18.36% and an amplitude of 22.72%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 148,200 yuan/ton [5] - **Macroeconomic Situation**: The General Office of the State Council issued the "Work Plan for Accelerating the Cultivation of New Growth Points in Service Consumption", proposing 12 policy measures in three aspects [5] - **Fundamentals**: Lithium prices fluctuate greatly and are in high - level shock. Lithium ore producers have a strong sentiment of holding up prices, and ore prices are running strongly. Smelters have relatively sufficient raw materials and mainly adopt a wait - and - see attitude [5] - **Supply**: Smelters have sufficient raw material inventory in the factory, and some conduct hedging operations when the price on the disk is high. The overall production remains stable, and the shipping sentiment fluctuates with the lithium price on the disk. The domestic supply of lithium carbonate is temporarily stable and may converge to some extent as the holiday approaches [5] - **Demand**: Due to the large fluctuations in lithium prices, downstream inquiry and low - price stocking intentions are strengthened when prices fall, while they are relatively cautious at high prices [5] - **Inventory**: Upstream inventory decreases, downstream inventory increases, and the overall industrial inventory decreases slightly. Spot trading has improved compared with the previous period [5] - **Viewpoint**: Conduct short - term long positions on dips with a light position and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The futures price fluctuates weakly. As of January 30, 2026, the closing price of the main contract of lithium carbonate was 148,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 33,320 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread of lithium carbonate was - 980 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 900 yuan/ton [6] - **Spot Price**: The spot price weakens. As of January 30, 2026, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 160,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10,500 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 12,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22,820 yuan/ton [14] 3.3 Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) strengthened. As of January 29, 2026, the average price was 2,045 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 180 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - to - RMB spot exchange rate was 6.946, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24% [18] - **Lithium Mica**: The quotation of lithium mica remained flat. As of January 30, 2026, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 7,150 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 16,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,075 yuan/ton [23] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply**: As of December 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,988.66 tons, an increase of 1,933.47 tons from November, a growth rate of 8.77%, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.43%. The monthly export volume was 911.898 tons, an increase of 152.66 tons from November, a growth rate of 20.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 45.97%. The monthly output was 56,820 tons, an increase of 2,840 tons from November, a growth rate of 5.26%, and a year - on - year increase of 50.08%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [30] 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: The quotation of hexafluorophosphate lithium weakened. As of January 30, 2026, the average price was 138,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 yuan/ton. As of December 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 233,150 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons from November, a growth rate of 0.91%, and a year - on - year increase of 44.19% [33] - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: The price of lithium iron phosphate increased. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 57,250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 34,000 yuan/ton. As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 269,330 tons, an increase of 440 tons from November, a growth rate of 0.16%, and a year - on - year increase of 32.48%. The monthly operating rate was 60%, a month - on - month decrease of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of 6% [38] - **Ternary Materials**: The price of ternary materials increased, but the output decreased. As of December 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 60,430 tons, a decrease of 1,090 tons from November, a decline rate of 1.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.26%. The monthly operating rate was 50%, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811 type, 622 type, and 523 type continued to strengthen [41] - **Lithium Manganate**: The price of lithium manganate increased, but the monthly output decreased. As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,030 tons, a decrease of 180 tons from November, a decline rate of 1.76%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.52%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 56,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 35,000 yuan/ton [46] - **Lithium Cobaltate**: The quotation of lithium cobaltate remained flat, and the monthly output decreased. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 400,500 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 15,770 tons, a decrease of 280 tons from November, a decline rate of 1.74%, and a year - on - year increase of 118.72% [49] - **New Energy Vehicles**: The sales volume of new energy vehicles decreased. As of December 2025, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles/ cumulative sales of automobiles (penetration rate) was 47.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.45% and a year - on - year increase of 7.01%. The monthly output was 1,718,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 8.62%; the sales volume was 1,710,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 6.2%. The cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 2.615 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 103.66% [52][56] 3.6 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.47, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to short volatility by constructing a short straddle option [61]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to have some support for prices due to reduced supply and warming demand. The industry inventory is slightly decreasing but still at a high level, and more effective demand is needed to drive inventory reduction. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices with light positions and control risks [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The main contract of lithium carbonate had a weekly decline of 14.41% with an amplitude of 14.51%, and the closing price of the main contract was 68,920 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro Environment**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, implementing more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, and expanding consumer demand [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Overseas miners have a strong price - holding sentiment, and lithium ore prices are firm. Supply may decrease due to increased smelter costs and industrial policies. Downstream buyers are currently on the sidelines but may increase inventory as the off - season transitions to the peak season. The industry inventory is slightly decreasing but still high [4]. - **Strategy**: Light - position short - term long - position trading at low prices, with attention to trading rhythm and risk control [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - The futures price of lithium carbonate is oscillating weakly. As of August 1, 2025, the closing price of the main contract was 68,920 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11,600 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 660 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2.2 Spot Price - The spot price of lithium carbonate is weakening. As of August 1, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,550 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 2,430 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10,050 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Upstream Market 3.3.1 Lithium Spodumene - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) increased. As of August 1, 2025, the average price was 810 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 70 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.193, a week - on - week increase of 0.54% [18]. 3.3.2 Lithium Mica - The price of lithium mica increased. As of August 1, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,340 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 273 yuan/ton. The average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 6,195 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,255 yuan/ton [23]. 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply - Import decreased and production increased. As of June 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 17,697.62 tons, a decrease of 3,448.16 tons from May, a decline of 16.31% and a year - on - year decline of 9.63%. The monthly export volume was 429.653 tons, an increase of 142.92 tons from May, an increase of 49.84% and a year - on - year decline of 14.28%. The monthly production was 44,100 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from May, an increase of 4.75% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decline of 5% and a year - on - year decline of 32% [28]. 3.4.2 Demand - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: The price increased, and the production increased. As of August 1, 2025, the average price was 50,250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 800 yuan/ton. As of June 2025, the monthly production was 161,150 tons, an increase of 2,650 tons from May, an increase of 1.67% and a year - on - year increase of 35.25% [31]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: The price was flat, and the monthly production decreased. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 32,650 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. As of June 2025, the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 203,300 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons from May, a decline of 3.24% and a year - on - year increase of 31.16%. The monthly operating rate was 52%, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 0% [34]. - **Ternary Materials**: The price of some types was flat, and the production decreased. As of June 2025, the monthly production of ternary materials was 59,000 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from May, a decline of 9.51% and a year - on - year increase of 13.46%. The monthly operating rate was 51%, a month - on - month decline of 4% and a year - on - year decline of 4%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of 811 - type, 622 - type, and 523 - type ternary materials remained stable [39]. - **Lithium Manganate**: The price increased, and the monthly production decreased. As of June 2025, the monthly production of lithium manganate was 10,800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from May, a decline of 2.7% and a year - on - year increase of 61.19%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 30,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 yuan/ton [44]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: The price increased, and the monthly production decreased. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 225,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,000 yuan/ton. As of June 2025, the monthly production of lithium cobaltate was 12,400 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from May, a decline of 5.34% and a year - on - year increase of 58.97% [47]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: The sales volume increased, and the export volume increased year - on - year. As of June 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 44.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.33% and a year - on - year increase of 9.12%. The monthly production was 1,268,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%; the sales volume was 1,329,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 1.68%. The cumulative export volume was 1.06 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 75.21% [49][55]. 3.5 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.13, indicating a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to build a long - straddle position to bet on increased volatility [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be under pressure due to a relatively weak fundamental situation, with oversupply and high inventory levels that require more time to digest. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a weak and volatile manner, while controlling risks by paying attention to trading rhythms [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Performance**: The weekly line of the lithium carbonate main contract showed a weak and volatile trend. As of the close, the weekly change was -1.36%, with an amplitude of 4.37%. The main contract was priced at 60,960 yuan/ton [5]. - **Macroeconomic Situation**: Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met with Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, indicating that China welcomes US - funded enterprises to deepen mutually beneficial cooperation with China and promote the healthy, stable, and sustainable development of Sino - US economic and trade relations [5]. - **Raw Material End**: Overseas lithium miners still have the intention to support prices, but they are forced to lower ore prices due to the pressure from the weak industrial fundamentals [5]. - **Supply End**: Due to the recent continuous weak operation of spot prices, upstream smelters have successively planned production cuts and maintenance due to cost - profit issues, and the growth rate of the overall supply volume may slow down [5]. - **Demand End**: The demand growth of downstream battery material factories is limited. Currently, most production is carried out in the customer - supply mode, and the attitude towards external procurement is cautious and wait - and - see, resulting in a light trading situation in the spot market. The overall expectation of the lithium carbonate industry remains pessimistic [5]. - **Inventory Situation**: The cumulative speed of the total industrial inventory has slowed down. The upstream still maintains a rapid inventory accumulation trend, while the downstream and traders show inventory reduction. Currently, most spot transactions occur between them [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Trade with a light position in a weak and volatile manner, and pay attention to trading rhythms to control risks [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of May 23, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 60,960 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 840 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread of lithium carbonate was - 1,320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 460 yuan/ton [10]. - **Spot Price**: As of May 23, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,050 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,450 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 2,090 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 610 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: As of May 23, 2025, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 735 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 18 US dollars/ton. As of the latest data of this week, the spot exchange rate of US dollars against RMB was 7.204, with a week - on - week decline of 0.13% [19]. - **Lithium Mica**: As of May 23, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 1,720 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 91 yuan/ton [24]. - **Phosphorus Lithium Alumite**: As of May 23, 2025, the average price of phosphorus lithium alumite was 7,050 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 290 yuan/ton [24]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: According to customs statistics, as of April 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 28,335.89 tons, an increase of 10,210.4 tons compared with March, a growth rate of 56.33%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 33.63%. The monthly export volume was 734.289 tons, an increase of 514.26 tons compared with March, a growth rate of 233.72%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 112.99%. According to CBC statistics, as of April 2025, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 47,900 tons, an increase of 4,720 tons compared with March, a growth rate of 10.93%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 2.68%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decline of 5% and a year - on - year decline of 32% [29]. - **Demand Side** - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: As of May 23, 2025, the average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium was 54,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 yuan/ton. According to CBC statistics, as of April 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 160,900 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared with March, a growth rate of 2.55%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 34.96% [32]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of the latest data of this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 31,500 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week. According to CBC statistics, as of April 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 196,600 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons compared with March, a growth rate of 10.08%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 19.73%. The monthly operating rate was 47%, a month - on - month decline of 10% and a year - on - year decline of 8% [35]. - **Ternary Materials**: According to CBC statistics, as of April 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 62,500 tons, an increase of 8,450 tons compared with March, a growth rate of 15.63%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 15.53%. The monthly operating rate was 53%, a month - on - month increase of 5% and a year - on - year decline of 4%. As of the latest data of this week, the prices of ternary materials 811 type, 622 type, and 523 type continued to weaken [40]. - **Lithium Manganate**: According to CBC statistics, as of April 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,500 tons, an increase of 830 tons compared with March, a growth rate of 8.58%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 46.65%. As of the latest data of this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 29,000 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week [44]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: According to CBC statistics, as of April 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 11,800 tons, an increase of 4,630 tons compared with March, a growth rate of 64.57%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 66.2%. As of the latest data of this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 220,000 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week [49]. - **Application Side** - **New Energy Vehicles**: According to China Association of Automobile Manufacturers data, as of April 2025, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles/total cumulative sales of vehicles (penetration rate) was 42.74%, a month - on - month increase of 1.58% and a year - on - year increase of 10.36%. The monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,251,000 units, a month - on - month decline of 2.04%; the sales volume was 1,226,000 units, a month - on - month decline of 0.89%. The cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 642,000 units, a year - on - year growth rate of 52.49% [51][56]. 3.5 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.15, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and combined with the fundamental situation, it is recommended to go long on volatility by constructing a long straddle option [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures main contract showed a weak and volatile trend this week, with a weekly decline of 3.26% and an amplitude of 3.29%. The closing price of the main contract was 65,960 yuan/ton [5]. - Macroscopically, the National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 81 billion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds in the second batch this year to support the replacement of consumer goods with new ones. - In terms of fundamentals, overseas miners still maintain high quotes, but due to the continuous decline in lithium carbonate spot prices and the slowdown of raw material demand caused by the contraction of smelter production, lithium ore prices are generally weak. - From the supply side, non - integrated smelters may face a decline in production profits due to low lithium prices, and their production and operating rates may decrease. After comprehensively considering the increase and decrease factors, it is expected that the domestic supply of lithium carbonate will only slightly decrease. - On the demand side, downstream enterprises have basically completed restocking. As the downstream consumption peak season is coming to an end, the growth rate of lithium carbonate demand from downstream processing enterprises is expected to slow down. - In terms of inventory, lithium carbonate inventory continues to accumulate, and the market supply - demand pattern remains in a state of oversupply. - The recommended strategy is to conduct light - position trading with a weak and volatile trend and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate main contract was weak and volatile on the weekly line. The weekly increase or decrease was - 3.26%, the amplitude was 3.29%, and the main contract was quoted at 65,960 yuan/ton [5]. - **Outlook**: Macro policies support consumption replacement. In terms of fundamentals, lithium ore prices are weak, supply may slightly decrease, demand growth will slow down, and inventory continues to accumulate [5]. - **Strategy**: Light - position trading with a weak and volatile trend, paying attention to risk control [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of April 30, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 65,960 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,020 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 1,380 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 520 yuan/ton [10]. - **Spot Price**: As of April 30, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 67,950 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 1,990 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,020 yuan/ton [17]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: As of April 30, 2025, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 788 US dollars/ton, with a flat week - on - week change. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.2653, a week - on - week decrease of 0.67% [21]. - **Lithium Mica**: As of April 30, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,019 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 77 yuan/ton. The average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 7,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 175 yuan/ton [27]. 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply Side - **Imports and Exports**: As of March 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 18,125.49 tons, an increase of 5,797.53 tons from February, a growth rate of 47.03%, and a year - on - year decrease of 4.82%. The monthly export volume was 220.031 tons, a decrease of 197.1 tons from February, a decline of 47.25%, and a year - on - year decrease of 31.68% [33]. - **Production**: As of March 2025, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 43,180 tons, an increase of 7,490 tons from February, a growth rate of 20.99%, and a year - on - year increase of 14.78%. The operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [33]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: As of April 30, 2025, the average price was 56,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 yuan/ton. As of March 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 156,900 tons, an increase of 22,870 tons from February, a growth rate of 17.06%, and a year - on - year increase of 47.39% [36]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 33,250 yuan/ton, with a flat week - on - week change. As of March 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 178,600 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from February, a growth rate of 11.9%, and a year - on - year increase of 30.56%. The operating rate was 57%, with a month - on - month change of 0% and a year - on - year change of - 2% [41]. - **Ternary Materials**: As of March 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 54,050 tons, an increase of 9,130 tons from February, a growth rate of 20.33%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.86%. The operating rate was 48%, a month - on - month increase of 8% and a year - on - year decrease of 13%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 remained stable [44]. - **Lithium Manganate**: As of March 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 9,670 tons, an increase of 870 tons from February, a growth rate of 9.89%, and a year - on - year increase of 49.92%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 30,000 yuan/ton, with a flat week - on - week change [49]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of March 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 7,170 tons, an increase of 880 tons from February, a growth rate of 13.99%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.47%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 225,000 yuan/ton, with a flat week - on - week change [52]. 3.4.3 Application Side - **New Energy Vehicles**: As of March 2025, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 41.16% of the cumulative sales of automobiles (penetration rate), a month - on - month increase of 0.85% and a year - on - year increase of 10.06%. The monthly output was 1,277,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 43.81%; the sales volume was 1,237,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 38.68% [55]. - **New Energy Vehicle Exports**: As of March 2025, the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 441,000, a year - on - year increase of 43.65% [59]. 3.5 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium or discount of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.147, indicating a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to short volatility by constructing a short straddle option strategy [62].