生生生 生生生生生生生生生生生生生 生生生生 2 0 2 6 . 0 2 . 0 6 作者：姜振飞 联系方式： jiangzhenfei@zjtfqh.com 审核：李文涛 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 观点小结 生猪 定性 解析 从业资格证号：F03143941 交易咨询证号：Z0022201 临近春节终端备货接近尾声，屠宰企业开工率接近年度高点，下周上半周北方小年过后，家庭备货也 将基本结束，屠宰企业将陆续停工，现货价格也将逐步停止报价，因春节后是需求淡季，市场对春节后现货 价格预期较为悲观，因此养殖端在春节前出栏较为积极，从规模化样本企业小幅超额完成1月出栏计划以及 牧原将出栏体重降至120公斤以下，加上标肥价差持续走扩，肥猪出现相对偏紧的情况来看，春节前养殖端 出栏是积极的，这也降低节后的出栏压力。 核心观点 底部区间震荡 从上市企业业绩公告来看，2025年半数上市企业都是亏损的，结合期货价格以及现在的养殖成本来看， 2026年上半年实现盈利将比较困难，因此在预期2026年较为悲观的情况下，上半年养殖端压栏以及二育将较 为谨慎，持续的亏损也将促使一些低效能的企业 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - Northern markets may see firming prices as some slaughterhouses face procurement difficulties, while southern markets may continue to weaken as procurement is relatively smooth. Some markets are experiencing an expanding spread between standard and fat pigs, with larger spreads in Sichuan due to low large - pig inventories [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Futures Market - **Price and Change**: The previous day's closing prices for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 11900, 11600, 11895, 12555, 13460, and 13430 respectively. Price changes were 0, 130, 75, 105, 85, and 40 with corresponding percentage changes of 0.00%, 1.13%, 0.63%, 0.84%, 0.64%, and 0.30%. [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Trading volumes were 8, 50734, 20045, 4279, 3632, and 870 respectively. Open interests were 49, 135450, 106785, 45044, 34436, and 17472, with changes of - 16, - 3059, 1672, - 261, 414, and 49 respectively. [2] - **Spread**: Current spreads for 1 - 3 months, 3 - 5 months, 5 - 7 months, 7 - 9 months, 9 - 11 months, and 11 - 1 months were 300, -295, -660, -905, 30, and 1530 respectively, compared to previous values of 430, -350, -630, -925, -15, and 1490. [2] Spot Market - **Prices in Different Regions**: Current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 13.13, 12.71, 12.78, 13.4, 12.37, and 12.85 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0.06, -0.01, -0.32, -0.31, -0.36, and 0.01 compared to the previous day. [2] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts was 433 on the previous day, with no change from two days ago. [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that pig prices are entering an upward trend, driven by reduced supply and expanding price differentials in the market [2][7] - The upcoming opportunities for pig price increases are identified as the New Year and pre-Spring Festival periods, with the latter expected to have a more significant impact on demand [3][5] Group 2 - Factors contributing to increased consumption include lower temperatures, which are expected to boost pork consumption as winter progresses [5] - There are three waves of consumption anticipated: the first wave is related to traditional cured meats, the second wave is for New Year celebrations, and the third wave is for the Spring Festival, which is expected to drive demand significantly [5][7] - The trend of secondary fattening is rising, with an increase in the outflow of medium and large pigs, as farmers anticipate higher prices due to increased demand leading up to the Spring Festival [7][9] - Market sentiment remains weak, but there is an expectation that pig prices will stabilize and begin to rise steadily soon [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the current supply pressure in the pig market, there is a potential for optimism as the peak selling season approaches before the Spring Festival, which is less than 60 days away [2] - Historically, there are two opportunities for pig prices to rise before the Spring Festival: one around New Year's Day and another closer to the festival itself, with the latter being more reliable due to increased consumer demand [4] - The Spring Festival is a significant traditional holiday in China, leading to a concentrated increase in pork consumption as families tend to buy more meat during this time, even if they do not consume much regularly [6] Group 2 - Pork consumption typically spikes in the two weeks leading up to the Spring Festival, as families prepare for gatherings and businesses begin to stock up due to holiday closures and increased travel [7] - The price difference between standard pigs and large pigs (known as the "standard pig price difference") is an indicator of market demand; a larger price difference suggests stronger demand [9] - Recent data shows that pig prices have increased from 11.4 yuan/kg to around 11.6 yuan/kg, but the upward momentum has weakened, indicating that 6 yuan/kg remains a significant resistance level for pig prices [9]

Core Viewpoint - The price difference between standard and large pigs has widened, indicating an increasing demand for larger pigs in the market, particularly for making preserved meats as the winter season approaches [1] Supply Structure Changes - The number of pigs held by smallholders has decreased by 15% compared to last year, while the proportion of large pigs (over 140 kg) in total inventory has risen to 22% [2] - In the Sichuan-Chongqing region, the proportion of large pigs (300-400 lbs) in local slaughterhouses has increased by 8 percentage points to 35%, reflecting strong local demand for larger pigs [2] Supply Pressure and Market Dynamics - Despite the widening price difference, supply pressure remains, with the price difference only increasing by 0.01 yuan/kg, indicating limited market capacity to absorb large pigs [3] - As of October, pigs weighing 90-140 kg accounted for 36.22% of the inventory, up by 1.68% from last year, suggesting a significant number of standard and large pigs will be available for sale in the coming months [3] Demand Variability - National slaughterhouse operating rates have slightly decreased by 0.03 percentage points, and fresh meat sales have dropped by 0.09 percentage points, indicating insufficient consumer acceptance of large pigs [4] - While demand for preserved meats has increased in the Southwest, with orders for preserved meat in Sichuan rising by 20%, regions like Henan show a lower demand for large pigs, with only 18% of local slaughterhouse purchases being large pigs, down by 5 percentage points from last year [4] Disease Impact - Although winter is a peak period for pig diseases, the survival rate in large farms remains high at over 95% due to robust biosecurity measures, limiting the impact of diseases on overall supply [5] - The inventory of breeding sows is still 2% above normal levels, indicating that the fundamental oversupply of pigs remains unchanged [5] Price Outlook - In the short term, the supply of large pigs is expected to exceed demand by 15% in November and December, primarily due to the concentration of previously raised pigs coming to market [7] - Despite the price advantage of large pigs and the widening price difference, overall pig prices are not expected to rise significantly [7] - In the medium to long term, the market may experience a "low first, high later" trend, with high breeding sow inventory likely keeping prices around the cost line of 12-13 yuan/kg in the first half of 2026 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The price gap between fat and standard pigs in China has been widening post-National Day holiday due to a decrease in the proportion of large pigs and a shift in demand, although supply may exceed expectations in the coming months, limiting further expansion of the price gap [1][3]. Group 1: Price Gap Dynamics - After the National Day holiday, the national price gap between fat and standard pigs has shown a gradual widening trend, with the price gap reaching 0.65 yuan/kg as of October 20, an increase of 0.27 yuan/kg from September 30, representing a 41.54% month-on-month increase [1]. - The fundamental reason for the widening price gap is the differentiation in the weight structure of pigs, with the proportion of large pigs (over 140 kg) at a five-year low of 1.04%, while the proportion of standard pigs (90-140 kg) has increased to 37.34% [5]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The demand side is experiencing structural adjustments due to changes in climate and consumer behavior, with a decrease in temperatures leading to a rebound in restaurant consumption and an increase in large pig purchases, which supports the price of fat pigs [3]. - Seasonal factors are contributing to increased demand for large pigs, creating a significant price advantage ahead of the consumption peak, with farmers holding back on sales, further supporting large pig prices [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to November and December, the demand for large pigs is expected to be bolstered by decreasing temperatures and the onset of household curing activities, which will further support large pig prices [3]. - However, the supply of large pigs may exceed market expectations due to the concentration of piglets being marketed in this period, which could limit the expansion of the price gap [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Strategy suggestion: Wait for a rebound and then conduct short - selling operations [7] - Market review: The hog price faced downward pressure and declined. The main contract dropped by 2.18% on a weekly basis [8][11] - Market outlook: On the supply side, the entry of secondary fattening decreased. As the May Day holiday approached, some breeders and secondary fatteners sold large hogs, leading to an increase in the average slaughter weight. The spread between standard and fat hogs turned positive, and the prices of feed raw materials rose, increasing the risk of secondary fattening. The pressure caused by the postponed supply may gradually emerge. According to the hog breeding cycle, the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the second and third quarters, and the medium - term supply pressure is expected to increase. On the demand side, the slaughterhouse operating rate rose again last week. As the May Day holiday approaches, the terminal demand may improve later, and the operating rate may maintain a slight upward trend. There are still passive inventory - building phenomena in a few regions. The basis of the main hog contract has retracted from a deep discount to a relatively normal range. In the short term, there is a game between supply and demand, and the hog price will fluctuate. However, the medium - term fundamentals are bearish, and it is expected that the market center will move down slightly in the future [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Strategy: Wait for a rebound and short - sell [7] - Market review: The hog price declined, with the main contract down 2.18% weekly [8][11] - Outlook: Supply pressure may increase in the medium - term, while short - term demand may improve. The price will fluctuate in the short term and move down slightly in the medium - term [8] 3.2 Futures Market Situation - Price change: The futures price fell, and the main contract dropped by 2.18% on a weekly basis [11] - Net position and warehouse receipt: As of April 25th, the net short position of the top 20 holders decreased by 822 lots to 15,367 lots compared with last week, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 150 to 665 lots [18] 3.3 Spot Market Situation - Basis: On Friday, the basis of the May hog contract was 985 yuan/ton, and that of the September contract was 950 yuan/ton [22] - Hog and piglet prices: This week, the national average hog price was 14.96 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from last week and 2.19% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 40.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week and up 0.86% from last month [29] - Pork and sow prices: As of the week of April 17th, the national average pork price was 26.08 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [33] - Pig - grain ratio: As of the week of April 16th, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.72, up 0.01 from the previous week [37] 3.4 Upstream Situation - Sow inventory: In March 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 40.39 million, a decrease of 270,000 from the previous month and an increase of 1.17% year - on - year, equivalent to 103.6% of the normal inventory. Among the 208 sample enterprises, the inventory of reproductive sows in 123 large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.08% month - on - month and 4.83% year - on - year in March, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms increased slightly by 0.41% month - on - month and 11.89% year - on - year [42] - Hog inventory: In Q1 2023, the national hog inventory was 41.731 million, a decrease of 1.012 million from the end of the previous quarter and an increase of 881,000 year - on - year. In March, the inventory of commercial hogs in 123 large - scale farms increased by 0.27% month - on - month and 6.32% year - on - year, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 2.57% month - on - month and 12.37% year - on - year [45] - Slaughter volume and weight: In March, the slaughter volume of commercial hogs in 123 large - scale farms increased by 17.43% month - on - month and 22.65% year - on - year, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 5.01% month - on - month and 76.16% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary hogs this week was 124.04 kg, an increase of 0.03 kg from last week [48] 3.5 Industry Situation - Breeding profit: As of April 25th, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 53.53 yuan/head, an increase of 31.74 yuan/head compared with last week; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 100.16 yuan/head, an increase of 20.71 yuan/head compared with last week. The profit of poultry breeding was 0.05 yuan/head, an increase of 0.01 yuan/head week - on - week [53] - Import volume: From January to March 2025, China imported 280,000 tons of pork, a year - on - year increase of 7.69%, but it was at a historically low level [58] - Substitute products: As of the week of April 25th, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of the week of April 24th, the average price difference between standard and fat hogs was 0.1 yuan/kg, with the spread narrowing by 0.12 yuan/kg compared with last week [61] - Feed situation: As of April 24th, the spot price of soybean meal was 4,062.29 yuan/ton, an increase of 667.15 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2,279.61 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.57 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of April 25th, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange hog feed cost index increased by 1.31% compared with last week, while the price of fattening hog compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of March 2025, the monthly feed production was 2.7772 million tons, an increase of 142,800 tons year - on - year [67][70][74] - CPI: As of March 2025, the year - on - year CPI decreased by 0.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared with last month [78] 3.6 Downstream Situation - Slaughter and inventory: In the 17th week, the operating rate of slaughterhouses was 27.19%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points compared with last week and 0.41 percentage points higher year - on - year. As of Thursday this week, the frozen product storage capacity of key domestic slaughterhouses was 17.45%, a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points compared with last week [81] - Slaughter volume and catering consumption: As of February 2025, the slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises was 21.77 million, a decrease of 42.95% compared with the previous month. In March 2025, the national catering revenue was 423.55 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [86] 3.7 Hog Stocks The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis content is provided [87]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The short - term supply - demand structure of the pig market remains stable with small fluctuations. Recently, due to the Sino - US trade game, the pig market is supported by the feed side, especially the far - month LH2509 contract price is relatively strong. One can cautiously go long at low prices or conduct a month - spread strategy of selling near - month contracts and buying far - month contracts. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro policies on single commodities [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Weekly Summary - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of LH2505, LH2507, and LH2509 contracts increased by 0.8%, 0.8%, and 3.5% respectively. The LH2509 is the main contract [3][5]. - **Spot Data**: The national average price of commercial pig slaughter increased by 0.1%, and the price in Henan (the delivery benchmark area) increased by 0.3%. The average slaughter weight of sample enterprises increased by 0.1% [3]. - **Spread and Basis**: The 07 - 05 spread decreased by 5, and the 09 - 05 spread increased by 375. The basis of the 7 - month contract increased by 45, and the basis of the 9 - month contract decreased by 335 [3][11]. - **Slaughter End**: The slaughter enterprise's开工 rate was 27.36%, up 0.16 percentage points, and the frozen product storage rate was 17.38%, up 0.12 percentage points [3][31]. - **Profit and Cost**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit was 129.30 yuan per head, down; the purchased piglet profit was 65.80 yuan per head, down. The standard - fat spread was - 0.23 yuan per kilogram, up; the hair - white spread was 4.18 yuan per kilogram, down [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of pig warehouse receipts was 0, with no change [3]. 3.2 Pig Inventory and Production - **Piglets and Sows**: The average price of weaned piglets was 533.33 yuan per head, unchanged from last week, and the average price of 50KG binary sows was 1641 yuan per head, also unchanged. It is expected that the inventory of breeding sows in China will remain stable with minor fluctuations [20]. - **Commercial Pig Inventory**: As the temperature rises and pig production capacity recovers, the inventory of commercial pigs in April is expected to increase month - on - month [20]. - **Slaughter Weight and Quantity**: The national average slaughter weight of pigs was 123.98 kg, up 0.07 kg from last week. The average slaughter price was 14.55 yuan per kg, up 0.01 yuan per kg. The monthly slaughter plan of large - scale farms increased, and the slaughter volume in April is expected to increase month - on - month [24]. 3.3 Pig Price Spread - **Standard - Fat Spread**: The national weekly average standard - fat spread was - 0.23 yuan per kg, narrowing by 0.09 yuan per kg compared with last week. The spread is expected to continue to narrow, but the trend will slow down [28]. 3.4 Slaughter and Consumption - **Slaughter Enterprise Indicators**: The weekly slaughter开工 rate was 27.36%, up 0.16 percentage points. The fresh - sales rate of key slaughter enterprises was 88.7%, down 0.7 percentage points, and the frozen product storage rate was 17.38%, up 0.12 percentage points. In the short term, the fresh - sales rate may further decline, and the frozen product inventory will continue to rise [31]. - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 129.30 yuan per head, a decrease of 2.67 yuan per head from last week; the weekly average profit of purchasing piglets was 65.80 yuan per head, a decrease of 39.06 yuan per head. The pig - grain ratio continued to decline, and it is expected to fall further [40]. 3.5 Market Information Summary - **Supply**: Large - scale farms have normal slaughter volumes and high slaughter weights, with sufficient market supply [43]. - **Demand**: It is the traditional consumption off - season with poor market demand, but the entry of second - fattening after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival is more active than before [43]. - **Policy**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a new management method for breeding livestock and poultry production and operation licenses, which will be implemented on July 1, 2025. The State Council Tariff Commission raised the additional tariff rate on imported goods from the US, which is bullish for pig prices in the short term [43]. - **Non - African Swine Fever**: There are sporadic epidemic situations in some areas, with relatively limited impact [43]. - **Market Sentiment**: The Sino - US trade game makes feed prices firm, which is expected to provide some support [43].