前我们说过猪价要上涨，有两个信号：一个是供应端减少，另一个则是标肥价差走扩。 而从这两天的行情来看，标肥价差开始有走扩的迹象了，那么猪价真要涨了吗？ 马上就涨起来可能还不至于，但如果从大趋势上来看，猪价已经进入到了重心上行的趋势中了。 元旦的机会可能不大，但很重要，意味着供需之间的转换。而春节前的备货基本不会消失，每年都会有拉涨，只不过是幅度大小罢了。 而随着12月接近尾声，马上进入到新的一年了，猪价也将进入一个新阶段。 为什么这么说呢？ 之前我们说猪价还有两波机会：一波是元旦，另一波是春节前。 一是气温下降，有利于消费提升。 第一波是腌腊，冬至一直被认为是腌腊高峰，但今年春节晚，再加上之前气温高，所以对腌腊也有所拖累，导致消费有一定后移。 第二波是元旦，元旦虽然说比较短暂，但也有一定提振。 第三波就是春节了，这一波基本是板上钉钉的，过年不管吃不吃肉的，多少也会买一点，更何况今年猪肉价格便宜，这在一定程度上也会刺激消费。 三是二次育肥开始抬头，叠加中大猪出栏增加。 之前猪价持续低迷，部分养殖户在成本压力下，中大猪出栏增加，但近期二次育肥开始抬头了。 今年冬天冷得有些偏晚，尤其是南方地区，温度普遍没有持续冷温天 ...

之前我们说，年前猪价可能会有两波机会：第一波是元旦前后，另一波就是临近春节。 元旦吧，其实不好说，因为往年来看，基本是喜忧参半，而且猪价涨不涨归根到底还要看情绪，情绪决定着供需是否错配，而供需是否错配就决定着猪价能 不能涨。 一直在说猪价旺季不旺，磨底震荡，今天说点乐观的。 现在距离春节还有60多天，除去最后那几天不算，实际卖猪的时间也就还有不到60天了。 意味着什么呢？ 意味着全年卖猪高峰就要来了。 可能有人要说了，冬至都没挺过去，再来个卖猪高峰，那不就更完蛋了吗，哪还有什么乐观可言？ 而且猪多是事实，供应压力那么大，何来乐观呢？ 乐观当然也是相对来说的。 而中国家庭饮食习惯多喜欢吃鲜肉，所以一般也不会提前太多时间去囤肉，一般节前两周左右差不多。 因为那时候有的企业已经陆续放假了，春运也开始进入高峰时段，所以备货自然也就该提上日程了。 为啥这么说呢？ 因为现在猪多，如果硬要比供需的话，那可能一天也涨不了。 所以，在供大于求的情况下，猪价想要上涨，一定是要情绪引发的供需错配，这才有机会（当然别管这机会能不能持续，对当前的生猪市场来说，只要是上 涨就比下跌强）。 元旦的情绪不太好说，那我们就把元旦放下，直接说春 ...

来源：市场资讯 虽然标肥价差在扩大，但供应端的压力一点没减小。本周价差只扩大了0.01元/公斤，基本没动，说明 市场实际消化大猪的能力并没有明显提升。 （来源：大佑农饲料） 现在的标肥价差已经到了-0.71元/公斤，比去年同期的-0.54元/公斤高出不少。这意味着什么？就像买 车，标准版和加长版的差价拉大了，说明市场上对"加长版"的大猪需求正在升温。 随着天气转冷，西南地区开始做腊肉、香肠了。再加上2026年春节来得晚，腌腊季节比往年长了近两 周。猪肉价格现在不高，老百姓更愿意多买些大肥猪来做腊味。 从往年经验看，冬天和年底这段时间，标肥价差通常都是一年中最大的。原因很简单——快过年了，南 方人需要更多肥猪做腊味，养殖户也乐意多养一段时间让猪长膘。猪在栏里多待一天，就多重一点，市 场上短期供应就少一些，价格自然容易往上走。 供应结构变了，大猪行情有支撑 今年散户手里的猪比去年少了15%，而140公斤以上的大猪在总存栏中的比例却升到了22%。这就好比 市场上卖菜的摊贩少了，但高档蔬菜的比例反而增加了。 有业内行家指出，在散户猪源减少的背景下，大猪作为做腊味的首选原料，价格很可能先涨起来，然后 带动普通猪价跟着回 ...

另从需求端来看，气候与消费场景变化带动需求结构调整。进入10月，全国气温从北到南逐步下行，餐 饮消费等需求回升，对大猪采购量增加，进一步强化肥猪价格抗跌属性。季节因素带来的需求增量，使 大猪在消费旺季前形成明显价格优势，并且散户也对第四季度肥标差拉开以及大猪价格偏强有较好预 期，目前惜售心态强烈，对大猪价格也带来一定支撑。 基于上述基本面变化，展望后期标肥价差走势来看，11-12月，随着气温逐步下降，利好大猪需求，同 时家庭腌腊活动的逐步开展，进一步支撑大猪需求，给大猪价格带来提振。10月中旬补栏二育的猪源或 在11-12月集中出栏，并且上半年补栏的部分猪源也可能在这个时间段出栏，因此大猪供应量或超市场 预期，因此卓创资讯预计11-12月全国肥标仍有拉开空间但空间有限。 （作者：范晴晴，卓创资讯分析师） 受大猪存栏占比降低和需求转向等因素影响，国庆假期后，全国肥标价差持续拉开。展望11-12月，虽 大猪需求仍有支撑，但后续供应量或超预期，肥标价差进一步扩大空间将受限。 国庆节假期结束后，全国肥标价差呈现逐步拉开走势。据卓创资讯统计，截止到10月20日全国肥标差为 0.65元／公斤，环比9月30日增加0.27元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Strategy suggestion: Wait for a rebound and then conduct short - selling operations [7] - Market review: The hog price faced downward pressure and declined. The main contract dropped by 2.18% on a weekly basis [8][11] - Market outlook: On the supply side, the entry of secondary fattening decreased. As the May Day holiday approached, some breeders and secondary fatteners sold large hogs, leading to an increase in the average slaughter weight. The spread between standard and fat hogs turned positive, and the prices of feed raw materials rose, increasing the risk of secondary fattening. The pressure caused by the postponed supply may gradually emerge. According to the hog breeding cycle, the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the second and third quarters, and the medium - term supply pressure is expected to increase. On the demand side, the slaughterhouse operating rate rose again last week. As the May Day holiday approaches, the terminal demand may improve later, and the operating rate may maintain a slight upward trend. There are still passive inventory - building phenomena in a few regions. The basis of the main hog contract has retracted from a deep discount to a relatively normal range. In the short term, there is a game between supply and demand, and the hog price will fluctuate. However, the medium - term fundamentals are bearish, and it is expected that the market center will move down slightly in the future [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Strategy: Wait for a rebound and short - sell [7] - Market review: The hog price declined, with the main contract down 2.18% weekly [8][11] - Outlook: Supply pressure may increase in the medium - term, while short - term demand may improve. The price will fluctuate in the short term and move down slightly in the medium - term [8] 3.2 Futures Market Situation - Price change: The futures price fell, and the main contract dropped by 2.18% on a weekly basis [11] - Net position and warehouse receipt: As of April 25th, the net short position of the top 20 holders decreased by 822 lots to 15,367 lots compared with last week, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 150 to 665 lots [18] 3.3 Spot Market Situation - Basis: On Friday, the basis of the May hog contract was 985 yuan/ton, and that of the September contract was 950 yuan/ton [22] - Hog and piglet prices: This week, the national average hog price was 14.96 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from last week and 2.19% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 40.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week and up 0.86% from last month [29] - Pork and sow prices: As of the week of April 17th, the national average pork price was 26.08 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [33] - Pig - grain ratio: As of the week of April 16th, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.72, up 0.01 from the previous week [37] 3.4 Upstream Situation - Sow inventory: In March 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 40.39 million, a decrease of 270,000 from the previous month and an increase of 1.17% year - on - year, equivalent to 103.6% of the normal inventory. Among the 208 sample enterprises, the inventory of reproductive sows in 123 large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.08% month - on - month and 4.83% year - on - year in March, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms increased slightly by 0.41% month - on - month and 11.89% year - on - year [42] - Hog inventory: In Q1 2023, the national hog inventory was 41.731 million, a decrease of 1.012 million from the end of the previous quarter and an increase of 881,000 year - on - year. In March, the inventory of commercial hogs in 123 large - scale farms increased by 0.27% month - on - month and 6.32% year - on - year, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 2.57% month - on - month and 12.37% year - on - year [45] - Slaughter volume and weight: In March, the slaughter volume of commercial hogs in 123 large - scale farms increased by 17.43% month - on - month and 22.65% year - on - year, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 5.01% month - on - month and 76.16% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary hogs this week was 124.04 kg, an increase of 0.03 kg from last week [48] 3.5 Industry Situation - Breeding profit: As of April 25th, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 53.53 yuan/head, an increase of 31.74 yuan/head compared with last week; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 100.16 yuan/head, an increase of 20.71 yuan/head compared with last week. The profit of poultry breeding was 0.05 yuan/head, an increase of 0.01 yuan/head week - on - week [53] - Import volume: From January to March 2025, China imported 280,000 tons of pork, a year - on - year increase of 7.69%, but it was at a historically low level [58] - Substitute products: As of the week of April 25th, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of the week of April 24th, the average price difference between standard and fat hogs was 0.1 yuan/kg, with the spread narrowing by 0.12 yuan/kg compared with last week [61] - Feed situation: As of April 24th, the spot price of soybean meal was 4,062.29 yuan/ton, an increase of 667.15 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2,279.61 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.57 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of April 25th, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange hog feed cost index increased by 1.31% compared with last week, while the price of fattening hog compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of March 2025, the monthly feed production was 2.7772 million tons, an increase of 142,800 tons year - on - year [67][70][74] - CPI: As of March 2025, the year - on - year CPI decreased by 0.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared with last month [78] 3.6 Downstream Situation - Slaughter and inventory: In the 17th week, the operating rate of slaughterhouses was 27.19%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points compared with last week and 0.41 percentage points higher year - on - year. As of Thursday this week, the frozen product storage capacity of key domestic slaughterhouses was 17.45%, a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points compared with last week [81] - Slaughter volume and catering consumption: As of February 2025, the slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises was 21.77 million, a decrease of 42.95% compared with the previous month. In March 2025, the national catering revenue was 423.55 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [86] 3.7 Hog Stocks The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis content is provided [87]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The short - term supply - demand structure of the pig market remains stable with small fluctuations. Recently, due to the Sino - US trade game, the pig market is supported by the feed side, especially the far - month LH2509 contract price is relatively strong. One can cautiously go long at low prices or conduct a month - spread strategy of selling near - month contracts and buying far - month contracts. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro policies on single commodities [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Weekly Summary - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of LH2505, LH2507, and LH2509 contracts increased by 0.8%, 0.8%, and 3.5% respectively. The LH2509 is the main contract [3][5]. - **Spot Data**: The national average price of commercial pig slaughter increased by 0.1%, and the price in Henan (the delivery benchmark area) increased by 0.3%. The average slaughter weight of sample enterprises increased by 0.1% [3]. - **Spread and Basis**: The 07 - 05 spread decreased by 5, and the 09 - 05 spread increased by 375. The basis of the 7 - month contract increased by 45, and the basis of the 9 - month contract decreased by 335 [3][11]. - **Slaughter End**: The slaughter enterprise's开工 rate was 27.36%, up 0.16 percentage points, and the frozen product storage rate was 17.38%, up 0.12 percentage points [3][31]. - **Profit and Cost**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit was 129.30 yuan per head, down; the purchased piglet profit was 65.80 yuan per head, down. The standard - fat spread was - 0.23 yuan per kilogram, up; the hair - white spread was 4.18 yuan per kilogram, down [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of pig warehouse receipts was 0, with no change [3]. 3.2 Pig Inventory and Production - **Piglets and Sows**: The average price of weaned piglets was 533.33 yuan per head, unchanged from last week, and the average price of 50KG binary sows was 1641 yuan per head, also unchanged. It is expected that the inventory of breeding sows in China will remain stable with minor fluctuations [20]. - **Commercial Pig Inventory**: As the temperature rises and pig production capacity recovers, the inventory of commercial pigs in April is expected to increase month - on - month [20]. - **Slaughter Weight and Quantity**: The national average slaughter weight of pigs was 123.98 kg, up 0.07 kg from last week. The average slaughter price was 14.55 yuan per kg, up 0.01 yuan per kg. The monthly slaughter plan of large - scale farms increased, and the slaughter volume in April is expected to increase month - on - month [24]. 3.3 Pig Price Spread - **Standard - Fat Spread**: The national weekly average standard - fat spread was - 0.23 yuan per kg, narrowing by 0.09 yuan per kg compared with last week. The spread is expected to continue to narrow, but the trend will slow down [28]. 3.4 Slaughter and Consumption - **Slaughter Enterprise Indicators**: The weekly slaughter开工 rate was 27.36%, up 0.16 percentage points. The fresh - sales rate of key slaughter enterprises was 88.7%, down 0.7 percentage points, and the frozen product storage rate was 17.38%, up 0.12 percentage points. In the short term, the fresh - sales rate may further decline, and the frozen product inventory will continue to rise [31]. - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 129.30 yuan per head, a decrease of 2.67 yuan per head from last week; the weekly average profit of purchasing piglets was 65.80 yuan per head, a decrease of 39.06 yuan per head. The pig - grain ratio continued to decline, and it is expected to fall further [40]. 3.5 Market Information Summary - **Supply**: Large - scale farms have normal slaughter volumes and high slaughter weights, with sufficient market supply [43]. - **Demand**: It is the traditional consumption off - season with poor market demand, but the entry of second - fattening after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival is more active than before [43]. - **Policy**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a new management method for breeding livestock and poultry production and operation licenses, which will be implemented on July 1, 2025. The State Council Tariff Commission raised the additional tariff rate on imported goods from the US, which is bullish for pig prices in the short term [43]. - **Non - African Swine Fever**: There are sporadic epidemic situations in some areas, with relatively limited impact [43]. - **Market Sentiment**: The Sino - US trade game makes feed prices firm, which is expected to provide some support [43].