"雨水节气过后，新疆各地气温回升，新季棉花如何种植成了广大农民的心坎事。"闫氏德海农业科技有 限公司（简称闫氏德海）总经理闫旭告诉期货日报记者，今年中央一号文件明确提出，推动棉花等产业 平稳发展、完善棉花目标价格政策、优化新疆棉花生产布局和品种结构，以及稳定黄河和长江流域棉花 生产，这让广大棉农心里有了底，提高了棉农的种植积极性。目前，新疆多地的棉田春灌工作已铺开， 很多农民还提前选购了棉种、地膜、化肥，检修调试播种机械备播，预计新季新疆棉花稳产概率较大。 记者近年来在新疆调研棉花市场时发现，由于新疆棉农种植棉花收益相对稳定、目标价格政策持续得到 实施等，新疆棉花种植面积长期保持稳中有增的发展态势。但随着相关机构开始对新疆农业种植结构进 行调整等，预计新疆棉花种植面积将下滑。在单产提升幅度不抵面积下降对产量的影响时，预计新疆棉 花总产量将稳中有降。现阶段，新疆相关机构正在对棉花产业布局进行优化，低产低效、缺水、生态脆 弱、盐碱化严重、地力贫瘠、远离交通干线、缺乏配套灌溉设施等的棉田将逐步退出，同时将引导棉花 种植向优质宜棉区、高标准农田集中，提升单产与品质。 （文章来源：期货日报网） "种子卖出去不是结束，还 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current market sentiment is optimistic, but the post - Spring Festival downstream operating rate is unknown. Therefore, the pre - holiday Zhengzhou cotton futures price is oscillating strongly at a high level. After the festival, focus on the downstream operating rate and the new cotton target price policy that may be announced in March or April. The strategy is to try going long at the lower edge of the oscillation range [3][20]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Downstream Consumption and Price Movement - In December last year, due to the significantly higher operating rate of the downstream industry chain in the off - season compared to the same period of the previous year and the expectation of a reduction in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in the next year, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price increased by 6.58%. From January to mid - February this year, the price continued to move sideways at a high level, and there may still be an upward trend in the future from a technical chart perspective [5]. - In the peak seasons of September and October last year, the operating rate of the downstream industry chain did not increase month - on - month, and the cotton price declined due to the expectation of increased production. However, in the off - seasons of November and December, the operating rate did not show a seasonal decline and remained at a relatively high level. As of the week of February 6, the spinning mill operating rate was 60.5%, 10 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the weaving mill operating rate was 19.4%, 7.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year [5]. Inventory and Procurement - As of the end of January, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.79 million tons, 40,000 tons more than the same period last year; the industrial inventory was 1 million tons, 20,000 tons more than the same period last year. Since October 2025, the industrial inventory has continued to increase from 890,000 tons to the current 1 million tons, indicating high procurement enthusiasm of downstream spinning mills [5]. Import Situation - Currently, the domestic - foreign price difference has reached the highest level since 2014, with a very high import profit. The import profit with a 1% tariff exceeds 3,500 yuan/ton, and the import profit with a sliding - scale tariff is close to 2,500 yuan/ton. However, the increase in actual import volume is not large. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year; in 2025, the cumulative import of cotton was 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year; from August 2025 to July 2026, the cumulative import of cotton was 560,000 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons year - on - year [6]. - In December 2025, China imported 170,000 tons of cotton yarn, an increase of 20,000 tons year - on - year; in 2025, the cumulative import of cotton yarn was 1.5 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons year - on - year; from August 2025 to July 2026, the cumulative import of cotton yarn was 720,000 tons, an increase of 110,000 tons year - on - year. Brazil exported 115,000 tons of cotton to China in January, an increase of 46,000 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 31,000 tons month - on - month; from August 2025 to July 2026, Brazil's cumulative export of cotton to China was 478,000 tons, an increase of 96,000 tons year - on - year. As of January 22, 2025/26, the United States' cumulative export of cotton to China was 97,400 tons, a decrease of 66,000 tons year - on - year [6]. USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report - The February USDA monthly supply - demand report is neutral. The estimated global output for the 2025/26 season is 26.1 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the January estimate and 300,000 tons more than the previous season. The increase in output is from China, with an estimated output of 7.62 million tons in February, an increase of 100,000 tons from the January estimate. The estimated global consumption is 25.85 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the January estimate and 50,000 tons less than the previous season. The estimated global ending inventory is 16.35 million tons, an increase of 130,000 tons from the January estimate and 290,000 tons more than the previous season. The estimated global inventory - to - consumption ratio is 62.27%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points from the January estimate and 1.25 percentage points more than the previous season. The estimated export volume of the United States is adjusted down by 40,000 tons to 2.61 million tons compared to January, while the estimates of China, Brazil, and India change little [19].

软商品日报 软商品日报 | 二、日度数据监测 | | --- | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 | 品种 | 合约价差 | 最新 | 环比 | 主力基差 | 环比 | 现货 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 3-5 | 60 | -10 | 1402 | 80 | 新疆 | 15743 | 5 | | | | | | | | 全国 | 16012 | 10 | | 白糖 | 3-5 | 10 | -2 | 106 | -14 | 南宁 | 5300 | 10 | | | | | | | | 柳州 | 5330 | 0 | 三、市场信息 光大期货软商品日报（2026 年 2 月 6 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四，ICE 美棉下跌 0.74%，报收 61.78 美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比下降 0.27%， 报收 14610 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 4804 手至 71.1 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 白糖： （张笑金，从业资格号：F0306200；交易咨询资格号：Z0000082） 消息方面，2025/26榨季截至2026年2月3日，该邦已有199家糖厂开榨，与上榨季同期持平；累计入榨甘 蔗8702.9万吨，较上榨季同期的6576万吨增加2126.9万吨；产糖806.34万吨，平均产糖率9.27%。现货报 价方面，广西制糖集团报价区间为5270~5370元/吨，少数上调10~30元/吨；云南制糖集团报价5110~ 5180元/吨。原糖方面，贵金属等继续宽度震荡，宏观扰动仍存，基本面影响有限，继续关注北半球实 际增产情况。国内方面，成交一般，节前以震荡为主，节后先消化假期外盘影响，同时发酵假期期间国 内生产进度及最新估产预期。 棉花： （孙成震，从业资格号：F03099994；交易咨询资格号：Z0021057） 周四，ICE美棉下跌0.74%，报收61.78美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比下降0.27%，报收14610元/吨，主力 合约持仓环比下降4804手至71.15万手，棉花3128B现货价格指数15640元/吨，较前一日下降20元/吨。国 际 ...

Group 1 - The core issue for textile companies is the need to secure over 2000 tons of cotton raw materials through basis point pricing, as current costs are high due to a premium of 1000 CNY/ton over futures prices, compounded by poor sales of downstream products [1] - Since late November 2025, domestic cotton prices have risen significantly, with an increase of over 1500 CNY/ton by early January 2026, currently stabilizing around 1200 CNY/ton [1] - Stakeholders in the cotton industry are closely monitoring changes in cotton planting areas in Xinjiang, with some regions seeing an increase in land rental prices by approximately 300 CNY/mu [1] Group 2 - Initial market expectations indicated a reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area from 41 to 43 million mu in 2025 to around 36 million mu, with a decrease of 5 to 7 million mu, particularly in less suitable cotton regions [2] - Current market sentiment suggests that the reduction in planting area will be gradual over three years or more, rather than an abrupt cut, with ongoing policies aimed at ensuring cotton farmers' income and the long-term development of Xinjiang's cotton industry [2] - Factors contributing to the anticipated decrease in cotton planting include lower seed cotton purchase prices in 2025, leading to minimal profits for farmers, a trend towards adjusting crop structures to favor grain over cotton, and unclear policies regarding target prices for the upcoming planting season [2]

Research Background - Xinjiang is the main cotton-producing area in China, accounting for over 90% of the national cotton output. The planting area in Xinjiang has increased year-on-year, and overall weather conditions have been favorable, but high temperatures and reduced sunlight during the flowering and boll-opening stages have lowered optimistic yield expectations [3]. Research Summary 1. Cotton Growth Status - The visual growth of cotton is good, but actual yield measurements are below expectations. The weight of seed cotton in southern Xinjiang has decreased compared to last year, leading to a significant decline in yield levels. The cotton fiber content has also dropped by 0.5 to 2 percentage points, resulting in a stable or slightly decreased cotton output compared to last year [4]. 2. Change in Yield Expectations - Prior to October, the market expected cotton production to be around 7.5 to 7.6 million tons. However, recent actual yield data suggests production may be just over 7 million tons, with the growth rate dropping from 10% to 5%. The purchase prices for seed cotton have been rising post-holiday, with current high purchase quotes for 38% net fiber content reaching 6.4 to 6.5 yuan/kg [5]. 3. Expected Decrease in Planting Area Next Year - Cotton prices have been weaker compared to previous years, and lower yields are expected to result in reduced profits per mu. Some cotton fields with low yields may be converted to other crops. The prices of intercropped crops have also significantly decreased, diminishing their revenue potential. Policies may further guide the reduction of cotton planting in less suitable areas, reallocating the area for food, oilseed, and high-efficiency crop cultivation [6]. 4. Potential Policy Support Reduction - The target price for Xinjiang cotton is set at 18,600 yuan per ton for 2023-2025, which is the last year of the current subsidy policy. Since the implementation of the target price policy in 2014, cotton production has increased by over 50%, but demand has not shown significant growth. Market expectations suggest that the target price may be reduced next year, with attention on policy documents expected to be released in March/April [8]. 5. Current Market Trend Expectations - Commercial cotton inventory levels are at historical lows, with the registered warehouse receipts for the November contract down 25% year-on-year, currently at 114,000 tons. The main contract is influenced by new cotton supply and demand expectations, with a tightening supply-demand situation anticipated for 2025/26, leading to a noticeable rebound in prices. The current market sentiment is positive regarding next year's cotton prices, with strategies such as the snowball strategy and attention to 1-5 reverse hedging and long call options recommended during the peak processing period [9].