观点网马年开工第二天，几乎所有上海热门楼盘的销售们都在忙着给客户解释新落地的"沪七条"。 2月25日上海市住房城乡建设管理委、市房屋管理局、市财政局、市税务局、市公积金管理中心等五部 门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产政策的通知》，将自2026年2月26日起正式施行。 这一《通知》承接了去年8月发布的"沪六条"政策，针对当下上海市场限购、公积金、房产税三项重 点，进一步调整本地市民与来沪市民的购房门槛。 "现在社保个税要求低了，鼓励外省市客户来沪购房，而且贷款额度也提高了不少。"观点新媒体询问业 内人士得知， 新政落地时刻 在住房限购层面，"沪七条"缩短了社保及个税年限，非沪籍居民购买外环内住房，社保或个税缴纳年限 缩短为连续缴纳满1年及以上；同时，社保或个税满3年及以上的非沪籍居民家庭或单身人士在现有限购 政策基础上，可在外环内增购1套住房。 该政策特别针对购房人未成年时与父母共有住房，成年后新购或置换住房的情况，只要新购住房属于其 家庭的唯一住房，即可享受免税。 此外，"沪七条"针对持居住证群体另补充新购房政策，持《上海市居住证》满5年及以上的非沪籍家庭 或单身人士，可直接在全市范围内购买1套住房， ...

点击【樱桃大房子】关注并 2026年新年开工第二天，上海就甩出楼市新政： 非沪籍外环内购房社保缩至1年；满3年可在外环内增购1套；居住证满5年可直接买1套，不用社保个税。 新政目的就一次个，放松限购，增加市场的有效需求。 这一次主要是把有居住证的群体放宽了，社保不再是唯一的限制，下一轮估计是直接放开外环限购了。 对于这一次上海的新政，我直接说吧：上海这波操作，绝对不简单。 五部门联合发文，隔天就执行，这已经是不到两年里，上海第四次大幅放松限购。 但最反常、最值得品的点是什么？ 上海楼市根本没冷透！二手房连续三个月成交破2万套。 据上海中原地产数据，2026年1月，上海二手住宅成交2.03万套，环比微跌0.38%，同比增加26.69%。 成交量来看，上海明明已经走出暖冬，换以前，政策早观望了。 可这次偏偏市场刚有点起色，就直接加码托市，背后的心思，藏都藏不住。 核心目的：去库存、稳房价，一个比一个迫切。 上海楼市一直是冰火两重天，核心区豪宅抢着买，可外环外新房库存占了全市近八成，不少区域去化周期超18个月，压得喘不过气。 前几轮政策把外环外限购松绑了，但库存压力还是没彻底化解，只能继续把外环内门槛往下砍，把购买 ...

编者按： 在销售端，2025年新建商品房销售面积88101万平方米，同比下降8.7%；商品房销售额83937亿元，下 降12.6%。 在投资端，2025年房地产开发企业到位资金93117亿元，同比下降13.4%，其中个人按揭贷款下降 17.8%。 这些数据该怎么看？未来房地产市场会有哪些变化？中原地产首席分析师张大伟近日在接受南都N视频 记者的专访时，结合楼市的实际情况进行了分析，并表示，二手房市场回暖态势突出，2026年楼市有望 呈现"一线企稳、区域分化"的平稳运行态势。 当前市场仍处于"去库存"阶段，二手房市场回暖 根据国家统计局数据，2025年新建商品房销售面积、销售额均出现了下降。 对此，有观点指出，随着住房市场进入存量时代，新房市场则转向满足改善性需求，房企通过"好房 子"产品形成差异化供给。同时，二手房成交占比逐步提升，在大中城市，刚需购房者普遍通过购买二 手房解决居住问题。 这一观点也在中原地产研究院统计的数据得到了印证，据统计，2026年第3周数据显示，重点15城二手 住宅周度成交量环比上升9%，一线城市表现更为亮眼，中原报价指数连续5周回升。 对此，张大伟表示，二手市场回暖态势尤为突出，成为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector is facing widespread losses, with most A-share listed real estate companies reporting varying degrees of losses for 2025, except for the leading company, Poly Developments [3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance of Real Estate Companies - As of January 20, 2026, 27 real estate companies have released their 2025 performance forecasts, with total losses estimated between 47.546 billion and 62.464 billion yuan [5]. - Poly Developments reported a net profit of approximately 1.026 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 79.49% year-on-year, with revenue around 308.261 billion yuan, down 1.09% [5][6]. - Other companies, such as China Fortune Land Development, are expected to incur losses between 16 billion and 24 billion yuan for 2025, with net assets potentially declining by 10 billion to 15 billion yuan [6][7]. Group 2: Reasons for Losses - The significant losses are attributed to factors such as reduced project turnover, high debt levels, increased financial costs, and asset impairment losses [6][9]. - Companies like Greenland Holdings are also facing substantial losses, with projections of net losses between 16 billion and 19 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a cumulative loss exceeding 40 billion yuan from 2023 to 2025 [7][8]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The real estate market has been in a state of decline since 2022, with a projected 12.6% decrease in new residential sales in 2025 [10][11]. - The market is still in a "de-stocking" phase, with a total unsold housing area of 766 million square meters, up 1.6% year-on-year [10][11]. - Analysts suggest that the recovery of the real estate market is crucial for improving company performance, with potential for profit recovery if market activity increases in key cities [11]. Group 4: Risks of Delisting - Companies facing continuous large losses may encounter delisting risks, particularly if they fail to meet financial performance criteria or regulatory requirements [11][12]. - Specific delisting categories include trading-related, financial-related, and regulatory-related delistings, which could impact companies like China Fortune Land Development [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of China's real estate market, highlighting a decrease in sales volume and value, but with a narrowing decline rate, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [3][4]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In 2025, the total sales area of new residential properties reached 88,101 million square meters, a decrease of 8.7% from the previous year, with residential sales area down by 9.2% [3]. - The sales revenue for new residential properties was 83,937 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 12.6%, with residential sales revenue down by 13.0% [4]. - The sales area and revenue for new residential properties in 2024 were 97,385 million square meters and 96,750 billion yuan, respectively, both showing a year-on-year decline of 12.9% and 17.1% [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The real estate market is transitioning from a phase of "housing shortage" to "basic balance," with sales volume not reaching the "1 billion" scale in recent years [3]. - The decline in sales area and revenue is attributed to strict control over new developments and an accelerated inventory reduction process [4]. - As of the end of 2025, the unsold housing inventory was 76,632 million square meters, an increase of 1.6% from the previous year, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [8]. Group 3: Price Trends - In December 2025, the new home prices in 70 major cities continued to decline, with a significant number of cities experiencing price drops [5][6]. - The average price of second-hand homes also saw a decline, although the rate of decrease in first-tier cities was narrowing [6][7]. - The trend of price stabilization is emerging, with more cities reporting flat prices, suggesting a phase of negotiation between buyers and sellers [5][9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the policy direction of "controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply" will continue to shape the market in 2026 [8]. - There is an increasing trend of demand shifting towards second-hand homes and rentals, which is expected to help alleviate inventory pressure and stabilize prices [8][9]. - The active participation of first-time buyers and new citizens in the market is anticipated to drive transactions in both new and second-hand homes, contributing to market stability [9].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has introduced several monetary policy measures aimed at stimulating specific sectors of the economy through targeted easing, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The PBOC has lowered the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools from 1.50% to 1.25%, impacting loans for agriculture, small businesses, technological innovation, and carbon reduction [2][3]. - The adjustments in structural monetary policy tools are designed to direct credit resources more efficiently into encouraged sectors, thereby improving the effectiveness of financial services to the real economy [3][4]. Group 2: Expansion of Structural Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC has expanded the scale and scope of five structural monetary policy tools, focusing on technology innovation, private enterprises, green development, and consumption [4][6]. - Specific measures include increasing the quota for agricultural and small business loans by 500 billion yuan and raising the quota for technological innovation loans from 800 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan [6]. Group 3: Support for Private Enterprises - The PBOC has acknowledged the financing challenges faced by medium-sized private enterprises and has implemented policies to enhance financial support for small and medium-sized private businesses [7]. - The central bank aims to create a conducive monetary environment to boost consumption and expand domestic demand, enhancing the adaptability and effectiveness of financial support for consumption [7]. Group 4: Real Estate Market Support - The minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans has been reduced to 30%, which is expected to facilitate inventory reduction in the commercial real estate market [10]. - This policy aligns with broader regulatory intentions to support the real estate market and stimulate retail consumption and business services [10]. Group 5: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - The PBOC indicates that there is still room for further reductions in the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rates, given the current economic conditions and stability of the RMB exchange rate [8][9]. - Analysts predict that the central bank may lower policy rates by 20-30 basis points within the year, following the recent adjustments [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai real estate market is experiencing a surge in activity due to favorable policies and a new wave of property listings, with a focus on lower entry costs for buyers [5][6]. Group 1: Market Activity - The weather in Shanghai improved during the New Year holiday, leading to increased foot traffic at property showrooms [1]. - Various new projects were launched in both urban and suburban areas during the holiday, indicating a robust supply and demand dynamic [3]. - The "Qing'an" project in Jing'an District and the "Xiangyu Tianyu Lanchang" project in Minhang District both initiated subscriptions, with average prices of 12 million yuan per square meter and 8 million yuan per square meter, respectively [4]. Group 2: Policy Changes - Multiple favorable policies took effect on January 1, aimed at reducing the financial burden on homebuyers, including tax and credit adjustments [5]. - The new tax policy states that individuals selling homes purchased for less than two years will incur a 3% value-added tax, while those selling homes held for two years or more will be exempt from this tax [5]. - Adjustments to loan interest rates for first and second homes were also implemented, with reductions in rates for both short-term and long-term loans [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Buyers are exhibiting caution, with some opting to wait for better market conditions before making purchases, as seen in the case of a potential buyer who decided to hold off on selling their property [1][8]. - The reduction in the earnest money requirement to 500,000 yuan for the "Qing'an" project is aimed at attracting more potential buyers amid a cautious market sentiment [8]. - The market is seeing a mix of investment and self-use motivations among buyers, with a focus on properties with unique features such as river views [8].

Core Insights - The Shanghai real estate market is experiencing a shift with new policies and lower entry barriers for buyers, indicating a potential recovery phase in 2026 [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Activity - During the New Year holiday, both supply and demand in the Shanghai real estate market saw an uptick, with multiple new projects launching in both urban and suburban areas [2] - The "Qing'an" project in Jing'an District started its second round of subscriptions at an average price of 120,000 yuan per square meter, while the "Xiangyu Tianyu Lanchang" project in Minhang District launched at approximately 80,000 yuan per square meter [2] - The "An Gao Hai Yin Hua Ting" project in Minhang initiated subscriptions just before the New Year, with a first-day subscription rate of only 44% [2] Group 2: Policy Changes - New favorable policies took effect on January 1, 2026, aimed at reducing the financial burden on homebuyers through tax and credit adjustments [2][3] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a new tax policy where individuals selling homes purchased for less than two years will pay a 3% value-added tax, while those selling homes held for two years or more will be exempt from this tax [2] - Adjustments to mortgage rates were made, with first-time homebuyers seeing a reduction in rates for both short-term and long-term loans [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The reduction in tax burdens is expected to encourage homeowners to list their properties, potentially increasing the supply of homes on the market [3][4] - The lowered entry barrier for new projects, such as a 500,000 yuan subscription fee for the "Qing'an" project, aims to attract more potential buyers amid a cautious market sentiment [6] - The market is currently characterized by a wait-and-see attitude among buyers, with a noted decrease in impulsive purchasing behavior [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai real estate market is experiencing a shift with new policies and lower entry barriers, leading to increased activity in both supply and demand during the New Year holiday period [3][6]. Group 1: Market Activity - The weather improved in Shanghai during the New Year holiday, leading to increased viewings at various real estate projects [1]. - Several new projects launched during the holiday, including the Yujing'an project in Jing'an District with a price of 12,000 yuan per square meter and the Xiangyu Tianyu project in Minhang District with a price of approximately 8,000 yuan per square meter [4]. - The Anjiahui project in Minhang District opened for subscription before the holiday, with a registration rate of only 44% on its first day [4][7]. Group 2: Policy Changes - Multiple favorable policies took effect on New Year's Day, aimed at reducing the financial burden on homebuyers through tax and credit adjustments [3][6]. - The new tax policy states that individuals selling homes purchased for less than two years will pay a 3% value-added tax, while those selling homes held for two years or more will be exempt from this tax [4]. - Adjustments to loan interest rates for first and second homes were implemented, with rates for first-time buyers dropping from 2.35% to 2.1% for loans under five years, and from 2.85% to 2.6% for loans over five years [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - There is a noticeable cautious sentiment among potential buyers, with many opting to wait before making purchases due to concerns over price fluctuations [1][8]. - The reduction in the earnest money requirement to 500,000 yuan for the new project at Qiantan Riverside aims to attract more potential buyers amid a market characterized by hesitance [7][8]. - The market is expected to see a slower absorption rate for larger units, while smaller units are anticipated to sell more quickly due to limited availability [8].

国家队扫货楼市！你的房子是黄金还是废铁？看这3个信号 最近楼市最让人揪心的消息，莫过于"国家队进场扫货"！地方国企带着央行3000亿低息贷款、专项债， 在全国60多个城市收购存量房，郑州已收12万间、福州收了9501套，不少业主纠结坏了：自己的房子到 底能被"捡漏"变黄金，还是会继续砸手里成废铁？其实国家队不是来"救所有房"的，而是精准去库存， 你的房子能不能受益，看城市、看地段、看房子本身就够了！ 一、先搞懂：国家队扫的是"什么样的货"？ 别以为国家队来者不拒，人家收房有明确"门槛"，全是政策明文规定的硬标准： - 房源要"靠谱"：产权清晰无抵押、查封，已经竣工验收，青岛还要求房龄不超20年，配套完善、物业 规范； 二、房子变"黄金"：3类房源最容易被收购 符合这些条件的房子，相当于拿到了"变现通行证"，不仅能快速卖掉，还能少操心： - 核心城市核心地段：上海、杭州这些去化周期才五八个月的城市，核心区房源本身就紧缺，国家队收 储优先考虑中心城区，福州第一批改建的保障房全在核心区； - 刚需/刚改小户型：45-90㎡的房子最抢手，既适配保障房需求，又好流通，郑州、贵阳收储的房源 里，这类户型占比超70%； - ...