Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that hot-rolled inventory is at its highest level for the same period in five years, indicating potential supply chain pressures [41] - The liquidity environment is characterized by a historical high in gold prices, with the London gold spot price reaching $4,533 per ounce [11] - The report notes a decline in construction activity, with national real estate new starts down 20.50% year-on-year for the first 11 months of 2025 [20] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for December 2025 is at 47.15, down 10.19% month-on-month [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.1 percentage points in November 2025, a decrease of 1.10 percentage points month-on-month [18] - The current London gold price is $4,533 per ounce, reflecting a 4.41% increase from the previous week [11] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Hot-rolled inventory is at the highest level for the same period in five years, with rebar prices down 1.20% this week [41] - The national high furnace capacity utilization rate is at 85%, unchanged from the previous week [10] - The cement price index has decreased by 0.49% this week, with a national cement utilization rate of 30.14%, down 0.9 percentage points [59] Industrial Chain - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is at 72.05%, up 0.66 percentage points week-on-week [2] - The price of tungsten concentrate has reached a new high since 2012, at 460,500 yuan per ton, up 6.35% from last week [2] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 22,060 yuan per ton, reflecting a 1.01% increase week-on-week [10] Price Relationships - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar has turned positive, with the current difference at 10 yuan per ton [3] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.02 this week [3] - The price of stainless steel hot-rolled and electrolytic nickel has a ratio of 0.10 [3] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in November is 47.60%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points month-on-month [3] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is at 1,146.67 points, up 1.95% week-on-week [3] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is at 75.30%, down 1.20 percentage points from the previous week [3] Valuation Metrics - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.95%, with the chemical sector performing best at +4.23% [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.50, with a historical high of 0.82 [4] - The report suggests that the steel sector's supply may be reasonably constrained, leading to potential recovery in profitability to historical average levels [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The price spread between hot-rolled and rebar steel is at its lowest level in six years [3] - The liquidity indicators show that gold prices have reached a new high since November 2025, with the current price at 4341 USD/oz [10] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing a decline in high furnace capacity utilization, which has been below last year's levels for three consecutive weeks [23] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for November 2025 is 52.50, up 0.17% month-on-month [10] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference is -3.1 percentage points, down 1.10 percentage points month-on-month [19] - The current London gold spot price is 4341 USD/oz, reflecting a 0.97% increase from the previous week [10] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The national high furnace capacity utilization rate is 85%, down 1.0 percentage points month-on-month [9] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in national real estate new construction area for January to November 2025 is -20.50% [23] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in national commodity housing sales area for January to November 2025 is -7.80% [23] Price Movements - The price of rebar is currently 3320 CNY/ton, reflecting a 2.15% increase [9] - The price of titanium dioxide is 13000 CNY/ton, with a gross profit of -1795 CNY/ton [78] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 21840 CNY/ton, down 1.04% month-on-month [9] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in November 2025 is 47.60%, up 1.7 percentage points month-on-month [3] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping prices is 1124.73 points, reflecting a 0.60% increase [3] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 76.50%, up 0.80 percentage points month-on-month [3] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.28%, while the chemical sector showed the best performance with a 2.58% increase [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the Shanghai Composite is currently at 0.51, with a historical high of 0.82 [4] - The report suggests that the steel sector's supply may be reasonably constrained, leading to a potential recovery in profitability to historical average levels [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6] Core Insights - The report highlights that the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels due to government policies aimed at phasing out outdated production capacity [5] - The report notes that the liquidity environment for small and medium enterprises has improved slightly, with the BCI index at 52.50, indicating a positive trend [11] - The report indicates that the total inventory of five major steel varieties is at its highest level for the same period in four years, suggesting potential supply pressures [22] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI index for small and medium enterprises in November 2025 is 52.50, up 0.17% month-on-month [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -2.0 percentage points in October 2025, down 0.80 percentage points from the previous month [11] - The current price of London gold is $4,219 per ounce, reflecting a 3.80% increase from the previous week [11] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The total inventory of five major steel varieties is at a four-year high [22] - The price changes for key materials include rebar up 0.93% and cement price index up 0.22% [22] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is 88%, down 0.6 percentage points [43] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year median [3] - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel down 0.25% and copper up 1.77% [3] - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is 69.19%, down 1.88 percentage points [3] Sub-sectors - The price of tungsten concentrate has reached a new high since 2012, at 339,000 yuan per ton, up 3.04% from last week [3] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 21,430 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.33% increase [3] - The price of electrolytic copper is 87,480 yuan per ton, up 1.77% [3] Price Ratio Relationships - The gold-silver price ratio has reached its lowest level since August 2024, at 78 times [4] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.08 this week [4] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 40 yuan per ton [4] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in October 2025 is 45.90%, down 1.9 percentage points [4] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is 1,121.80 points, down 0.09% [4] - The capacity utilization rate for crude steel in the U.S. is 76.90%, up 0.70 percentage points [4] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.64%, with industrial metals performing best at +3.46% [5] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.53, with a historical high of 0.82 [5] - The report suggests that the profitability of the steel sector is likely to recover, leading to a potential PB ratio recovery [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The cement and asphalt operating rates have dropped to the lowest levels for the same period in five years, indicating a significant slowdown in construction activity [24][44] - The financing environment for small and medium enterprises has improved, with the BCI index rising to 52.41 in October 2025, up 10.15% month-on-month [11][20] - The report highlights a mixed performance in commodity prices, with some materials like rebar increasing by 1.89% while others like cement saw a decrease of 0.47% [24][63] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI index for small and medium enterprises reached 52.41 in October 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.15% [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -2.0 percentage points in October 2025, down 0.80 percentage points from the previous month [20] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Cement and asphalt operating rates have decreased significantly, with cement operating rates at 31.28%, down 10.8 percentage points from the previous week [63] - National real estate new construction area from January to October 2025 showed a year-on-year decline of 19.80% [24] Completion Chain - The gross profit margins for titanium dioxide and flat glass are at low levels, with titanium dioxide showing a gross profit of -1526 yuan/ton and flat glass at -58 yuan/ton [81] Industrial Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year high, while the operating rate for all-steel tires is at 61.31%, down 3.19 percentage points [75] - Tungsten concentrate prices have reached a new high since 2012, indicating strong demand in specific sectors [2] Price Comparison - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is currently at 50 yuan/ton, reflecting market dynamics [3] - The Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel price difference is at a five-year low, indicating potential pricing pressures [3] Valuation Metrics - The report notes that the PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.54, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6] Core Views - The profitability of steel futures has dropped to its lowest level since 2015, indicating significant pressure on the steel industry [2][44] - The report suggests that the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels due to regulatory support for the industry [4] Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in September was -1.2 percentage points, with a month-on-month increase of 1.6 percentage points [12] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for September 2025 was 47.58, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.61% [19] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The price of asphalt has reached a new low since February 2022, indicating challenges in the infrastructure sector [23] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 89.94%, down 0.39 percentage points from the previous week [44] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at a five-year high, suggesting strong demand in the tire sector [73] - The prices of major commodities showed mixed performance, with cold-rolled steel down 0.51% and copper up 1.94% [2] Sub-sectors - The main contract profit for steel futures has fallen to its lowest level since 2015, highlighting the need for strategic adjustments in the sector [2][44] - The price of graphite electrodes remains stable at 18,000 yuan/ton, with a comprehensive gross profit of 1,357.4 yuan/ton, down 4.26% [2] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in September 2025 was 47.80%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.6 percentage points [4] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 992.74 points, up 2.02% from the previous week [4] Valuation Levels - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.53, indicating potential undervaluation [4] - The report notes that the cyclical sector, particularly oil and petrochemicals, has shown the best performance with a 4.33% increase [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6] Core Insights - The report highlights that the price of electrolytic aluminum has reached a new high for the year at 21,050 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 1.79% and a profit margin of 3,683 CNY/ton, reflecting a 13.04% increase [2][11] - Iron ore prices have also reached a six-month high, indicating a positive trend in the metal cycle [2] - The report notes a significant decline in the average daily crude steel production of key enterprises, which fell by 7.94% month-on-month in late August [23] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The London gold spot price has reached a historical high of 3,643 USD/oz, with a week-on-week increase of 1.58% [12] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for August 2025 is at 46.37, up 0.61% from the previous month [19] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel production of key enterprises decreased by 7.94% month-on-month in late August [23] - The national high furnace capacity utilization rate increased by 4.39 percentage points [2] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at a five-year high, with a week-on-week increase of 5.99 percentage points [2] - The prices of cold-rolled steel, copper, and aluminum have changed by -2.63%, +1.36%, and +1.79% respectively [2] Sub-sectors - The price of titanium dioxide and flat glass remains low, with flat glass operating rates at 76.01% [2][75] - The report indicates that the profit margins for titanium dioxide and flat glass are -1,277 CNY/ton and -58 CNY/ton respectively [77] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in August 2025 is at 47.20%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.1 percentage points [4] Valuation Metrics - The report notes that the PB ratio of the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.53, with the highest historical value being 0.82 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The London gold spot price has reached a historical high of 3447 USD/oz, indicating strong liquidity in the market [1][11] - The steel sector's profitability is expected to recover to historical average levels due to government policies aimed at phasing out outdated production capacity [4] Liquidity Analysis - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for August 2025 is at 46.37, up 0.61% month-on-month [1][19] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.2 percentage points in July 2025, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points [1][19] - The total liabilities of the Federal Reserve are reported at 6.56 trillion USD, down 0.23% [11] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel production of key enterprises increased by 1.98% in mid-August [1][40] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is at 90.02%, down 0.23 percentage points [40] - The national real estate new construction area for January to July 2025 has a year-on-year decrease of 19.40% [22] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at 72.77%, down 0.36 percentage points [2] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 20,720 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.14% [2] - The price of molybdenum concentrate is at 4,505 CNY/ton, up 0.90% [2] Price Relationships - The price ratio of medium-thick plates to rebar is at a relatively high level, with the rebar and iron ore price ratio at 4.08 [3] - The price difference between rebar used in real estate and that used in infrastructure is 150 CNY/ton, up 15.38% from last week [3] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in July 2025 is at 47.10%, down 0.6 percentage points [3] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is at 1156.32 points, down 1.58% [3] Valuation Metrics - The CSI 300 index increased by 2.71%, with the industrial metals sector performing best at +6.95% [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.53, with a historical high of 0.82 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the steel sector's profitability is likely to recover, and the PB ratio is expected to improve accordingly [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - Molybdenum concentrate prices have reached a nearly 29-month high, while tungsten concentrate prices have hit the highest level since 2011 [2] - The liquidity indicators show that the M1 and M2 growth rate difference narrowed to -3.2 percentage points, marking a nearly 49-month high [11] - The construction and real estate sectors are showing mixed signals, with a notable increase in crude steel production [22] Summary by Sections Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.2 percentage points in July 2025, up by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [11] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for July 2025 was 46.09, down 6.16% month-on-month [19] Construction and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel production for key enterprises in early August increased by 4.64% month-on-month [22] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.25%, with a slight increase of 0.03 percentage points [40] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was at a five-year high, with a current rate of 73.13%, up by 1.06 percentage points [2] - The prices for major commodities showed varied performance, with copper prices down by 0.29% and aluminum prices up by 0.34% [2] Price Movements - The price of rebar was 3,270 yuan/ton, down by 0.91% week-on-week [10] - Molybdenum concentrate prices reached 4,465 yuan/ton, up by 2.29% [2] - Tungsten concentrate prices were at 227,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 12.94% [10] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 4.18%, with the commercial vehicle sector showing the best performance at +5.13% [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.56, with a historical high of 0.82 [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - The cumulative year-on-year change in national commercial housing completion area from January to July 2025 was -16.50% [75] - The profit margins for titanium dioxide and flat glass remain low, with flat glass operating rates at 75.34% [77]

Report Information - Report Date: July 25, 2025 [2] - Report Title: PTA Daily Report [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Due to the strong market of bulk chemicals and industrial products under the anti - involution expectation, stable downstream polyester demand, and the expected maintenance of PTA plants under low processing fees, the PTA market is expected to rise slightly [5] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 24th, the closing price of the PTA main futures contract TA2509 was 4,850 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton or 0.87%, with a settlement price of 4,814 yuan/ton and a daily increase in positions of 35,799 lots. The closing price of TA2601 was 4,824 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 253,188 lots and an increase of 5,799 lots [5] 2. Industry News - US crude oil inventories declined, but distillate inventories increased. The market awaited the clarification of US tariff negotiations. European and American crude oil futures fell for the fourth consecutive trading day, but the decline narrowed. On July 23rd, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 was $65.25 per barrel, down $0.06 or 0.09%, with a trading range of $64.71 - $65.78. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 was $68.51 per barrel, down $0.08 or 0.12%, with a trading range of $68.00 - $69.10 [6] - The Asian xylene market was sorted out in a small range. The FOB South Korea market closed at $713/ton, and the CFR China market closed at $730/ton [6] - The PTA price in the East China market was 4,814 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was at a discount of 1 yuan/ton to the futures contract 2509, down 4 yuan/ton. The overall market of bulk chemicals was strong, downstream polyester had no intention to cut production, and some PTA plants might be shut down for maintenance in early August [6] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including PTA futures price summary, basis, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, upstream raw material spot price, PX price, MEG price, PTA processing margin, TA5 - 9 spread, PTA warehouse receipts, polyester factory load rate, PTA downstream product prices, and PTA downstream product inventories. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [5][10][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6]. Core Insights - The electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization rate reached a new high in June, the highest level since 2012 [3]. - The financing environment for small and medium enterprises showed slight improvement, with the BCI index at 49.12 in June, up by 0.07% month-on-month [11]. - The report indicates a correlation between the M1 and M2 growth rate differential and the Shanghai Composite Index, with the differential at -5.6 percentage points in May, reflecting a slight increase [11]. Summary by Sections Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate differential was -5.6 percentage points in May 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9 percentage points [11]. - The BCI index for small and medium enterprises was 49.12 in June, indicating a slight improvement [11]. - The London gold spot price increased by 0.53% week-on-week [11]. Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel production of key enterprises in late June decreased by 0.88% month-on-month, totaling 2.129 million tons [2]. - The national capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 89.90%, down by 0.39 percentage points [41]. - The price index for cement decreased by 1.57% week-on-week, with a current opening rate of 73.30% [60]. Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was 72.92%, up by 2.51 percentage points [2]. - The June PMI new orders index was 50.20%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points [2]. Exports Chain - The PMI new export orders for China in June were 47.70%, up by 0.2 percentage points [4]. - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates was 1313.70 points, down by 2.18% [4]. Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.82%, with the real estate sector performing best at +6.12% [4]. - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market was 0.54, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels, following the recent revisions to the steel industry standards [5].