2026 年 2 月 25 日 行业研究 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓量春节期间总体微幅增加 ——金属周期品高频数据周报（2026.2.9-2026.2.15） 要点 流动性：SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓量春节期间总体微幅增加。（1）BCI 中小企业 融资环境指数 2026 年 2 月值为 48.66，环比上月-3.20%；（2）M1 和 M2 增速差与上证指数存在较强的正向相关性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2026 年 1 月 为-4.1 个百分点，环比+0.6 个百分点；（3）本周伦敦金现价格为 5042 美元 /盎司。 基建和地产链条：1-2 月高炉产能利用率或将处于 5 年同期最高水平。（1） 本周价格变动：螺纹+0.00%、水泥价格指数-0.73%、橡胶+3.14%、焦炭 +0.00%、焦煤-0.43%、铁矿-1.04%；（2）本周全国高炉产能利用率、水 泥、沥青开工率环比-0.16pct、+0.00pct、-1.3pct。 地产竣工链条：钛白粉、玻璃价格处于低位水平。本周钛白粉、玻璃的价格 环比分别+0.00%、+1.14%，钛白粉毛利润为-1880 元/吨，平板玻璃本周开 工率 73.89%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sector [5] Core Insights - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference has been declining for three consecutive months, reaching -4.7 percentage points in December 2025, indicating a tightening liquidity environment [10][18] - The average daily crude steel production of key steel enterprises in early January has rebounded to levels close to mid-October 2025 [21][42] - The report highlights that the prices of titanium dioxide and glass are at low levels, with titanium dioxide priced at 13,200 CNY/ton and glass at 1,124 CNY/ton [79] Summary by Sections Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference is -4.7 percentage points as of December 2025, a decrease of 1.60 percentage points month-on-month [10][18] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 47.15 in December 2025, down 10.19% from the previous month [10][18] - The current price of London gold is 4,599 USD/ounce, reflecting a 2.00% increase [10] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel production for key steel companies in early January is approximately 1.903 million tons, a 21.55% increase compared to the previous month [42] - The national high furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.48%, down 0.56 percentage points [42] - The price changes for various materials include rebar up 1.22%, cement price index down 0.94%, and rubber down 1.26% [21] Industrial Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at 73.44%, an increase of 7.55 percentage points [2] - Copper spot prices have reached a historical high, while tungsten concentrate prices have also hit a new high since 2012 [2] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 24,000 CNY/ton, with a profit margin of 6,787 CNY/ton [2] Price Relationships - The price ratio of London spot gold to silver has reached a new low since 2013 [3] - The price difference between rebar and iron ore is currently 3.99 [3] - The price difference between small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) is 200 CNY/ton, a 31.03% decrease from the previous week [3] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in December was 49.00%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points [3] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is 1,209.85 points, up 1.25% [3] - The capacity utilization rate for U.S. crude steel is 75.70%, an increase of 1.30 percentage points [3] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.57%, while the industrial metals sector performed best with a 2.81% increase [4] - The PB ratio of the steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.50, with a historical high of 0.82 [4] - The report suggests that the supply of steel may be reasonably constrained, leading to a potential recovery in sector profitability to historical average levels [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Overweight" for steel and non-ferrous metals [5] Core Insights - Tungsten concentrate prices have seen a decline for the first time since October 2025, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1][2] - The liquidity environment for small and medium enterprises is tightening, with the BCI index dropping to 47.15 in December 2025, down 10.19% month-on-month [1][19] - The national steel PMI new orders index decreased by 3.5 percentage points to 45.4% in December, reflecting a slowdown in demand [22][43] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI index for small and medium enterprises is at 47.15, down 10.19% from the previous month [1] - M1 and M2 growth rate differences show a strong positive correlation with the Shanghai Composite Index, with M1-M2 growth rate difference at -3.1 percentage points in November 2025 [1][19] - The current price of London gold is $4,333 per ounce, down 4.41% from last week [11] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The national steel PMI new orders index fell to 45.4%, indicating a decrease in new orders [22][43] - The prices of titanium dioxide and glass are at low levels, with titanium dioxide priced at 13,100 CNY/ton and glass at 1,153 CNY/ton [77][79] - The national average capacity utilization rate for cement is 30.14%, up 12.4 percentage points from the previous week [61] Industrial Products Chain - The national PMI new orders index for December is at 50.80% [2] - Major commodity prices show mixed performance, with cold-rolled steel and copper prices down by 0.26% and 0.32%, respectively, while aluminum prices increased by 0.50% [2] - Tungsten concentrate prices have decreased to 454,500 CNY/ton, down 1.3% from the previous week [2][9] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.59%, while the best-performing sector was oil and petrochemicals, up 3.92% [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the Shanghai Composite is currently at 0.51, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the steel sector's supply may be reasonably constrained due to government measures, potentially leading to a recovery in profitability to historical average levels [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that hot-rolled inventory is at its highest level for the same period in five years, indicating potential supply chain pressures [41] - The liquidity environment is characterized by a historical high in gold prices, with the London gold spot price reaching $4,533 per ounce [11] - The report notes a decline in construction activity, with national real estate new starts down 20.50% year-on-year for the first 11 months of 2025 [20] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for December 2025 is at 47.15, down 10.19% month-on-month [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.1 percentage points in November 2025, a decrease of 1.10 percentage points month-on-month [18] - The current London gold price is $4,533 per ounce, reflecting a 4.41% increase from the previous week [11] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Hot-rolled inventory is at the highest level for the same period in five years, with rebar prices down 1.20% this week [41] - The national high furnace capacity utilization rate is at 85%, unchanged from the previous week [10] - The cement price index has decreased by 0.49% this week, with a national cement utilization rate of 30.14%, down 0.9 percentage points [59] Industrial Chain - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is at 72.05%, up 0.66 percentage points week-on-week [2] - The price of tungsten concentrate has reached a new high since 2012, at 460,500 yuan per ton, up 6.35% from last week [2] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 22,060 yuan per ton, reflecting a 1.01% increase week-on-week [10] Price Relationships - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar has turned positive, with the current difference at 10 yuan per ton [3] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.02 this week [3] - The price of stainless steel hot-rolled and electrolytic nickel has a ratio of 0.10 [3] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in November is 47.60%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points month-on-month [3] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is at 1,146.67 points, up 1.95% week-on-week [3] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is at 75.30%, down 1.20 percentage points from the previous week [3] Valuation Metrics - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.95%, with the chemical sector performing best at +4.23% [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.50, with a historical high of 0.82 [4] - The report suggests that the steel sector's supply may be reasonably constrained, leading to potential recovery in profitability to historical average levels [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The price spread between hot-rolled and rebar steel is at its lowest level in six years [3] - The liquidity indicators show that gold prices have reached a new high since November 2025, with the current price at 4341 USD/oz [10] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing a decline in high furnace capacity utilization, which has been below last year's levels for three consecutive weeks [23] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for November 2025 is 52.50, up 0.17% month-on-month [10] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference is -3.1 percentage points, down 1.10 percentage points month-on-month [19] - The current London gold spot price is 4341 USD/oz, reflecting a 0.97% increase from the previous week [10] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The national high furnace capacity utilization rate is 85%, down 1.0 percentage points month-on-month [9] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in national real estate new construction area for January to November 2025 is -20.50% [23] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in national commodity housing sales area for January to November 2025 is -7.80% [23] Price Movements - The price of rebar is currently 3320 CNY/ton, reflecting a 2.15% increase [9] - The price of titanium dioxide is 13000 CNY/ton, with a gross profit of -1795 CNY/ton [78] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 21840 CNY/ton, down 1.04% month-on-month [9] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in November 2025 is 47.60%, up 1.7 percentage points month-on-month [3] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping prices is 1124.73 points, reflecting a 0.60% increase [3] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 76.50%, up 0.80 percentage points month-on-month [3] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.28%, while the chemical sector showed the best performance with a 2.58% increase [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the Shanghai Composite is currently at 0.51, with a historical high of 0.82 [4] - The report suggests that the steel sector's supply may be reasonably constrained, leading to a potential recovery in profitability to historical average levels [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that the electrolytic aluminum spot price has reached its highest level since May 2022, indicating a potential recovery in the metals market [2][4] - The financing environment for small and medium enterprises has shown slight improvement, with the BCI index at 52.50, up 0.17% month-on-month [11] - The report notes that the total inventory of five major steel varieties is at its highest level for the same period in four years, suggesting a potential oversupply in the market [21] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI index for small and medium enterprises in November 2025 is 52.50, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.17% [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -2.0 percentage points in October 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.8 percentage points [11] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The total inventory of five major steel varieties is at a four-year high [21] - The price changes for various construction materials include rebar up by 0.31% and cement price index down by 0.10% [2] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at the median level for the past five years, with a current rate of 70.92%, up 1.73 percentage points month-on-month [2] - Major commodity prices have shown varied performance, with copper and aluminum prices increasing by 4.71% and 3.36% respectively [2] Sub-sectors - The electrolytic aluminum price is at 22,150 yuan/ton, up 3.36% month-on-month, with estimated profits of 4,750 yuan/ton [2][9] - The price of tungsten concentrate has reached 354,000 yuan/ton, marking a 4.42% increase from the previous week [2] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.28%, with the industrial metals sector showing the best performance at +9.14% [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the Shanghai Composite is currently at 0.53, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels, driven by regulatory support for the industry [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6] Core Insights - The report highlights that the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels due to government policies aimed at phasing out outdated production capacity [5] - The report notes that the liquidity environment for small and medium enterprises has improved slightly, with the BCI index at 52.50, indicating a positive trend [11] - The report indicates that the total inventory of five major steel varieties is at its highest level for the same period in four years, suggesting potential supply pressures [22] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI index for small and medium enterprises in November 2025 is 52.50, up 0.17% month-on-month [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -2.0 percentage points in October 2025, down 0.80 percentage points from the previous month [11] - The current price of London gold is $4,219 per ounce, reflecting a 3.80% increase from the previous week [11] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The total inventory of five major steel varieties is at a four-year high [22] - The price changes for key materials include rebar up 0.93% and cement price index up 0.22% [22] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is 88%, down 0.6 percentage points [43] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year median [3] - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel down 0.25% and copper up 1.77% [3] - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is 69.19%, down 1.88 percentage points [3] Sub-sectors - The price of tungsten concentrate has reached a new high since 2012, at 339,000 yuan per ton, up 3.04% from last week [3] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 21,430 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.33% increase [3] - The price of electrolytic copper is 87,480 yuan per ton, up 1.77% [3] Price Ratio Relationships - The gold-silver price ratio has reached its lowest level since August 2024, at 78 times [4] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.08 this week [4] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 40 yuan per ton [4] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in October 2025 is 45.90%, down 1.9 percentage points [4] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is 1,121.80 points, down 0.09% [4] - The capacity utilization rate for crude steel in the U.S. is 76.90%, up 0.70 percentage points [4] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.64%, with industrial metals performing best at +3.46% [5] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.53, with a historical high of 0.82 [5] - The report suggests that the profitability of the steel sector is likely to recover, leading to a potential PB ratio recovery [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The cement and asphalt operating rates have dropped to the lowest levels for the same period in five years, indicating a significant slowdown in construction activity [24][44] - The financing environment for small and medium enterprises has improved, with the BCI index rising to 52.41 in October 2025, up 10.15% month-on-month [11][20] - The report highlights a mixed performance in commodity prices, with some materials like rebar increasing by 1.89% while others like cement saw a decrease of 0.47% [24][63] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI index for small and medium enterprises reached 52.41 in October 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.15% [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -2.0 percentage points in October 2025, down 0.80 percentage points from the previous month [20] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Cement and asphalt operating rates have decreased significantly, with cement operating rates at 31.28%, down 10.8 percentage points from the previous week [63] - National real estate new construction area from January to October 2025 showed a year-on-year decline of 19.80% [24] Completion Chain - The gross profit margins for titanium dioxide and flat glass are at low levels, with titanium dioxide showing a gross profit of -1526 yuan/ton and flat glass at -58 yuan/ton [81] Industrial Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year high, while the operating rate for all-steel tires is at 61.31%, down 3.19 percentage points [75] - Tungsten concentrate prices have reached a new high since 2012, indicating strong demand in specific sectors [2] Price Comparison - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is currently at 50 yuan/ton, reflecting market dynamics [3] - The Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel price difference is at a five-year low, indicating potential pricing pressures [3] Valuation Metrics - The report notes that the PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.54, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6] Core Insights - The electrolytic aluminum price reached a new high for the year at 21,580 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 1.31% and a profit estimate of 4,347 CNY/ton [3][12] - The report highlights a positive trend in liquidity, with the BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index rising to 52.41 in October, up 10.15% month-on-month [13][21] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing challenges, with a cumulative year-on-year decline in new construction area of 18.90% from January to September 2025 [25][80] Summary by Sections Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for October 2025 is 52.41, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.15% [13] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -1.2 percentage points in September, improving by 1.6 percentage points month-on-month [21] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel production for key enterprises in mid-October was 2.014 million tons [25] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces decreased by 0.80 percentage points [2] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year high, with a current rate of 73.67%, up 0.26 percentage points [2] - Major commodity prices showed varied performance, with cold-rolled steel and aluminum prices increasing by 1.72% and 1.31%, respectively [2] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in October 2025 was 45.90%, down 1.9 percentage points month-on-month [4] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1,058.17, reflecting a 3.60% increase [4] Valuation Metrics - The report notes that the PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.55, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4] - The report suggests that the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels due to recent policy measures [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6] Core Insights - Tungsten concentrate prices have reached a record high since 2012, indicating strong demand and potential investment opportunities in this segment [2][11] - The steel sector is expected to recover to historical profit levels due to government policies aimed at phasing out outdated production capacity [4][22] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for October 2025 is at 52.41, up 10.15% month-on-month [12][18] - M1 and M2 growth rate differences show a positive correlation with the Shanghai Composite Index, with the difference at -1.2 percentage points in September 2025, improving by 1.6 percentage points [12][18] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The steel PMI index for October is at 47.6%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points month-on-month [22][43] - Key commodity prices have shown varied movements, with rebar prices up 0.63% and cement price index up 0.23% [1][22] Industrial Products Chain - The national PMI new orders index for October is at 48.80%, down 0.9 percentage points month-on-month [2] - Major commodity prices include cold-rolled steel unchanged, copper up 1.22%, and aluminum up 0.80% [2] Exports Chain - The new export orders PMI for October is at 45.90%, down 1.9 percentage points month-on-month [4] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is at 1021.39 points, up 2.89% [4] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.43%, with the shipping sector performing best at +3.95% [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.53, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the steel sector's profitability is likely to recover to historical averages, and the PB ratio for steel stocks is expected to improve accordingly [4][22]