Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant trends in liquidity, construction, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, indicating a mixed economic outlook with specific sectors showing growth while others face challenges. Group 1: Liquidity - The London gold spot price reached a historical high this week, increasing by 3.74% compared to last week [3] - The BCI small enterprise financing environment index for May 2025 is at 49.09, up by 2.20% month-on-month [3] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in May 2025 is -5.6 percentage points, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [3] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in early June 2025 is 2.159 million tons, up by 3.25% month-on-month [4] - Price changes this week include rebar down by 2.23%, cement price index up by 1.86%, rubber up by 2.21%, coke down by 5.65%, coking coal down by 1.05%, and iron ore down by 1.36% [4] - The national blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, asphalt, and full steel tire operating rates changed by -0.07 percentage points, +0.90 percentage points, -1.0 percentage points, and -2.23 percentage points respectively [4] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass remained unchanged this week, with flat glass gross profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -762 yuan/ton [5] - The operating rate of flat glass this week is 75.42% [5] Group 4: Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity prices this week include cold-rolled steel up by 0.54%, copper up by 0.10%, and aluminum up by 2.87%, with corresponding gross profit changes of +78.85%, -18.19%, and +24.59% respectively [6] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is 77.98%, an increase of 4.12 percentage points [6] Group 5: Subcategories - Tungsten concentrate prices remain at the highest level since 2011 [7] - The price of graphite electrodes is 18,000 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 1,357.4 yuan/ton, down by 1.39% [7] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 20,760 yuan/ton, up by 2.87%, with estimated profit at 3,004 yuan/ton (excluding tax), up by 24.59% [7] Group 6: Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore this week is 4.13 [8] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 130 yuan/ton this week [8] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 280 yuan/ton, down by 100 yuan/ton [8] Group 7: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in May 2025 is 47.50%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points [9] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) this week is 1,243.05 points, up by 7.63% [9] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 79.50%, up by 1.30 percentage points [9] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.25% this week, with the best-performing cyclical sector being commercial vehicles, up by 7.24% [10] - The PB ratio of the general steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently 0.51, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [10]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current economic indicators and trends in various sectors, including liquidity, construction, real estate, and industrial products, providing insights into potential investment opportunities and market dynamics. Group 1: Liquidity and Financing Environment - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in April 2025 is -6.5 percentage points, a month-on-month decrease of -1.10 percentage points [3] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for April 2025 is 48.03, down -7.24% from the previous month [3] - There is a strong positive correlation between the M1 and M2 growth rate difference and the Shanghai Composite Index [3] Group 2: Construction and Real Estate Chain - Rebar prices have rebounded from an 8-month low, with a weekly increase of +1.59% [3] - The national steel PMI new orders index for April 2025 is 51%, an increase of +9.9 percentage points from the previous month [3] - Cement price index decreased by -1.45%, while rubber prices increased by +3.09% [3] Group 3: Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at a high level, recorded at 78.33%, an increase of +19.98 percentage points [4] - Major commodity prices show varied performance, with cold-rolled steel, copper, and aluminum prices increasing by +0.33%, +0.57%, and +3.48% respectively [4] Group 4: Price Trends of Specific Products - Tungsten concentrate prices have reached the highest level since 2011, while alumina and electrolytic aluminum prices have hit recent highs [5] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 20,230 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of +3.48% [5] - The price of graphite electrodes remains stable at 18,000 yuan/ton [5] Group 5: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in April 2025 is 44.70%, a decrease of -4.3 percentage points [7] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) composite index is 1,104.88 points, down -0.14% from the previous week [8] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 77.50%, an increase of +0.70 percentage points [8] Group 6: Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by +1.12%, with the shipping sector performing best at +6.87% [8] - The PB ratio of the general steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is currently at 0.53, with a historical high of 0.82 reached in August 2017 [8]

Group 1 - Chinese assets experienced a strong increase on May 12, 2025, with active performance in sectors such as military industry, photovoltaic, consumer electronics, and optical modules [1] - The CSI A500 Index (000510) rose by 1.26%, with notable individual stock performances including AVIC Chengfei reaching the daily limit, Anker Innovations up by 12.64%, and Lens Technology increasing by 9.63% [1] - The A500 ETF (512050) saw a rise of 1.18%, with a trading volume of 3.826 billion yuan, ranking first among similar funds [1] Group 2 - The A500 ETF has accumulated a weekly increase of 3.39% as of May 12, 2025, with its latest scale reaching 16.954 billion yuan, marking a one-month high [1] - The fund's share increased by 19.5 million units in the past week, leading in new share growth among comparable funds [1] Group 3 - The joint statement from the US-China economic and trade high-level talks indicated a significant reduction in bilateral tariff levels, with the US canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating with a similar cancellation [1] - Both parties agreed to establish a mechanism for continued negotiations on economic and trade relations, with provisions for further consultations on relevant issues as needed [1][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sector [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that rebar prices have dropped to an 8-month low, indicating a challenging environment for the construction and real estate sectors [1][40]. - The steel industry's profitability is expected to recover to historical average levels due to recent regulatory changes and improved demand dynamics [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for April 2025 is 48.03, down 7.24% month-on-month [10]. - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -5.4 percentage points in March 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.5 percentage points [10]. Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Rebar prices decreased by 1.56% this week, with a current price of 3150 yuan/ton [1][40]. - The national steel PMI new orders index for April 2025 is 51%, up 9.9 percentage points from the previous month [40]. Industrial Products Chain - The half-steel tire operating rate decreased by 14.08 percentage points this week, indicating a slowdown in production [2]. - Major commodity prices showed mixed performance, with cold-rolled steel down 0.59% and copper up 0.45% [2]. Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 2.00%, with the engineering machinery sector performing best at +3.17% [4]. - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.54, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4]. Real Estate Completion Chain - The cumulative year-on-year change in the national completed area of commercial housing from January to March 2025 is -14.30% [72]. - The price of titanium dioxide is 14600 yuan/ton, with a profit margin of -355 yuan/ton, indicating low profitability in the sector [75]. Price Comparison - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is currently 80 yuan/ton, reflecting a low price spread [3]. - The price of electrolytic copper is 78380 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.45% [9].

[Table_Title] 基础化工行业 Q1 化工行业盈利向好，OPEC+增产拖累油价 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-05-06 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]吴鑫然 SAC 执证号：S0260519070004 SFC CE No. BPW070 0755-23942150 wuxr@gf.com.cn -24% -15% -6% 2% 11% 20% 05/24 07/24 09/24 12/24 02/25 04/25 基础化工 沪深300 [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | 化工行业 2024 年报及 2025 | 2025-05-05 | | --- | --- | | 年 1 季报总结:资本开支尾声 | | | 已至，部分子行业率先确认 | | | 拐点 | | | 基础化工行业:铬化工持续景 | 2025-04-27 | | 气，25Q1 民爆利润提升明显 | | ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current trends in various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, providing insights into price movements, production rates, and market conditions. Group 1: Liquidity - The London gold spot price increased by 1.83% week-on-week [2] - The BCI small enterprise financing environment index for February 2025 is at 46.65, down 0.86% from the previous month [2] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -6.6 percentage points in January 2025, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [2] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - In late February, key enterprises' average daily crude steel production reached a new high of 2.259 million tons [3] - Weekly price changes include rebar up by 0.30% and cement price index up by 2.06%, while iron ore decreased by 3.73% [3] - National capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tires increased by 0.96 percentage points, 1.00 percentage points, 0.80 percentage points, and 0.21 percentage points respectively [3] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass changed by 0.34% and -1.57% respectively, with flat glass profit at -17 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1323 yuan/ton [4] - The flat glass operating rate remained stable at 76.38% [4] Group 4: Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel down by 0.12%, copper up by 2.57%, and aluminum up by 1.21% [5] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is at 82.78%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points [5] - The PMI new orders index for February is at 51.10%, up by 1.9 percentage points [5] Group 5: Subcategories - Iron ore spot price decreased by 3.73%, while prebaked anode prices reached a nearly 10-month high [6] - The price of graphite electrodes is 18,000 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a comprehensive profit of 441.35 yuan/ton, down by 40.71% [6] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 20,870 yuan/ton, up by 1.21%, with estimated profit at 2,748 yuan/ton (excluding tax), down by 15.43% [6] Group 6: Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.20 this week [7] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 120 yuan/ton [7] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 640 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [7] Group 7: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in February 2025 is at 48.60%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points [9] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is 1211.15 points, down by 3.16% [9] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is at 73.70%, down by 0.80 percentage points [9] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.39%, with the industrial metals sector performing best at +8.43% [10] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.54, with a historical high of 0.82 reached in August 2017 [10]