2025年烧碱价格持续下行。从期货加权价格表现来看，全年价格从最高3332元／吨下跌至2098元／吨， 跌幅达1234元／吨。市场核心矛盾在于产能扩张与需求增长的不匹配。数据显示，国内烧碱新增产能达 210万吨，尽管二、三季度投产节奏阶段性放缓，但并未改变市场长期产能过剩的格局。 作为烧碱最大下游领域，氧化铝行业需求占比30%~40%。2025年氧化铝行业新增产能约1100万吨，理 论上可带动烧碱需求增量120万吨，但受铝土矿供应紧张等因素制约，氧化铝实际产量释放受限。此 外，造纸、粘胶短纤等其他下游领域需求增长有限。 全年来看，烧碱市场需求增量小于供应增量，结转库存超300万吨，持续处于供过于求状态。展望2026 年，这种结构性产能过剩格局可能进一步加剧，新增产能的持续投放将抑制价格中枢下移。 需求增速放缓 2026年，我国烧碱行业计划新增产能约219万吨，产能增速预计为4.3%。新增产能将分布于贵州、陕 西、河北、山东等近十个省份，区域分布较为均匀。届时，国内烧碱年度总产量将达到4386万吨，周度 产量有望继续攀升至接近90万吨的高位。库存方面，2025年企业库存普遍在40万吨以上运行，峰值触及 50万吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The chlor-alkali - PVC industry is currently in a "subsidizing chlorine with caustic soda" situation. The downstream of caustic soda, such as the alumina industry, is more prosperous than the downstream of PVC, about 60% of whose terminal demand is related to real estate. The high - level operation rate of the alumina industry and new capacity additions in 2025 support the demand for caustic soda. As long as the profit of caustic soda can cover the loss of PVC, chlor - alkali integrated plants may maintain a high operation rate. The situation of strong caustic soda and weak PVC may continue until the real - estate market improves significantly or the comprehensive profit of upstream chlor - alkali integrated plants incurs continuous losses, forcing upstream production cuts [2][13][37]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Upstream and Downstream Industry Chain of Caustic Soda and PVC - **Caustic Soda**: Chemical name is sodium hydroxide (NaOH), with solid and liquid forms. The main production process is the ion - exchange membrane electrolysis method. Its cost mainly comes from electricity (60%) and raw salt (20%). It is mainly used in alumina production (over 30% consumption), and also widely used in other industries. Co - produced with it are liquid chlorine and hydrogen [4][5]. - **PVC**: A polymer of vinyl chloride monomer, mainly produced by the calcium carbide method (about 80% of production) and the ethylene method (about 20% of production) in China. Its downstream consumption is mainly in the construction industry (over 60% consumption) [5][6]. - **Chlor - Alkali Balance**: In the chlor - alkali production process, 1 ton of caustic soda is accompanied by 0.886 tons of liquid chlorine. The downstream demands of the two products are different. When caustic soda demand is good and its price rises, liquid chlorine production increases, and may lead to oversupply and price decline, resulting in the "subsidizing chlorine with caustic soda" situation [8]. 3.2 Current Supply and Demand Fundamentals of Caustic Soda and PVC - **Profit Situation**: About 90.9% of PVC production capacity in China is equipped with caustic soda production devices. The industry is in a "subsidizing chlorine with caustic soda" pattern. The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong in August 2025 was 1500 - 1700 yuan/ton, while PVC had a loss of (- 1000) - (- 250) yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong was 400 - 700 yuan/ton, and in the northwest region was 1300 - 1600 yuan/ton [10][13][14]. - **Inventory Situation**: The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in East China sample enterprises decreased by 6.37% from August 20 to August 27. The PVC inventory in sample warehouses in East and South China increased, while the PVC inventory in production enterprise factories decreased [16][18]. - **Downstream Demand Situation**: The planned alumina production capacity to be put into operation from the end of 2024 to 2025 is 1230 tons, with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of about 10%. The monthly production of viscose staple fiber has been increasing since June - August 2025, and its inventory is low. In August 2025, the PVC powder production increased by 4.62% compared with July, and the annual cumulative production from January - August increased by 2.67% compared with the same period in 2024. The PVC supply is expected to remain high in September, and the domestic demand is expected to improve slightly but limitedly [20][26][27]. 3.3 Market Outlook The situation of strong caustic soda and weak PVC may continue until the real - estate market improves significantly or the comprehensive profit of upstream chlor - alkali integrated plants incurs continuous losses, forcing upstream production cuts. Otherwise, the weak situation of PVC is difficult to change in the short term [37].

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating agency has assigned a stable outlook to Zhejiang Zhenyang Development Co., Ltd. (stock code: 603213.SH), considering its competitive cost structure due to location advantages and energy consumption control, despite facing challenges such as declining profitability and increasing leverage [3][4]. Company Overview - Zhejiang Zhenyang is the only chlor-alkali enterprise in the Ningbo Petrochemical Economic and Technological Development Zone, benefiting from rich customer resources and convenient transportation [3][4]. - The company has a total asset value of 33.48 billion yuan as of March 2025, with total debt at 4.64 billion yuan and equity attributable to shareholders at 19.60 billion yuan [3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a significant increase in operating income, reaching 28.99 billion yuan in 2023, but net profit decreased by 23.42% year-on-year due to declining sales margins [3][4]. - The EBITDA interest coverage ratio was 13.77 in 2023, indicating strong ability to cover interest expenses [3]. Industry Environment - The chlor-alkali industry is experiencing a mixed demand scenario, with the production of caustic soda expected to grow, but prices may remain volatile due to supply and demand dynamics [7][8]. - The overall production capacity of caustic soda in China is projected to increase by approximately 447,000 tons in 2025, with a growth rate of about 8.9% [8][9]. Market Dynamics - The company faces pressure from increased competition in the PVC market, with a projected decline in profitability due to high inventory levels and weak downstream demand [10][11]. - The price of liquid chlorine has been fluctuating, and the market for PVC remains under pressure due to low demand from the real estate sector [10][11]. Operational Challenges - The company is under pressure from rising capital expenditure due to ongoing projects, including a 939 million yuan investment in a new caustic soda production line [4][5]. - Environmental regulations are tightening, increasing the company's operational risks related to safety and compliance [4][10]. Sales and Distribution - The company maintains a strong regional sales presence, with a significant portion of its products sold in the East China region, benefiting from lower transportation costs [13][14]. - The sales model combines direct sales and distribution, with a focus on maintaining strong relationships with key customers [17][18].