水泥反内卷：复盘与进展 20250715 摘要 水泥行业龙头公司在反内卷中更具优势，2024 年一季度虽盈利触底， 但未出现全行业亏损，龙头企业如海螺水泥吨毛利与 2015 年相当，显 示出较强的抗风险能力。 2024 年三季度以来，水泥价格通过加大错峰生产和执行更严格的去产 能政策，经历了多轮提价，2025 年上半年业绩表现良好，中报预告显 示板块整体向好。 市场对水泥需求仍有期待，寄望于 7 月政策出台和基建发力，但未来几 年水泥需求仍将承压，需形成供给侧合力以应对阶段性需求波动。 海螺水泥未来均衡性利润预计在 100 亿至 150 亿之间，今年预计业绩 区间为 90 亿至 100 亿，对应市值区间为 1,100 亿至 1,400 亿元，目前 市值偏低。 港股对反内卷及中报业绩的反应强于 A 股，表明港股投资者更看重供给 侧逻辑，长周期底部正在逐步形成。 2025 年上半年国内水泥产量同比下滑约 4%，开工率降至 2020 年以来 最低，水泥价格跌破去年低点，整体价格压力较大。 华新水泥海外业务增长迅速，利润占比已超过 40%，通过并购扩张，尤 其在非洲市场，提升了单价和吨毛利，未来预计将继续保持增长。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the cement industry [6][27]. Core Insights - The cement industry is expected to see significant improvement in performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, driven by anti-involution measures and a focus on high-quality development [1][4]. - The historical success of supply-side reforms has led to a reduction in new cement production lines, alleviating supply-demand imbalances, but recent market demand declines have intensified competition [2][3]. - The regulatory framework for anti-involution policies is being strengthened, with measures to address overproduction expected to be a key focus in the second half of 2025 [3][4]. - Companies with integrated operations and global expansion strategies are positioned for long-term growth, with specific recommendations for Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China National Building Material [1][4][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The cement industry has experienced a significant drop in average prices, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.5% as of July 11, 2025, leading to a renewed call for anti-involution measures [2][3]. Performance Forecasts - Five cement companies have reported impressive performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, with some expecting net profit increases of over 100% year-on-year [4][8]. Policy Developments - Recent policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the inclusion of the cement industry in carbon emissions trading are expected to enhance the regulatory framework for managing overproduction [3][4]. Company Recommendations - The report highlights Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China National Building Material as key investment opportunities due to their competitive advantages in scale, cost, and energy efficiency [1][4][8].