2025 年 07 月 16 日 工业硅：仓单开始累库，关注上方空间 多晶硅：关注现货成交情况 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2509收盘价（元/吨） | 8,785 | 90 | 570 | 1,440 | | | | Si2509成交量（手） | 1,416,898 -57,095 | | | -290,382 1,046,528 | | | | Si2509持仓量（手） | 396,653 | -6,237 | 9,531 | 292,964 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2508收盘价（元/吨） | 42,470 | 705 | 4,085 | - | | | | PS2508成交量（手） | 565,746 | 95,417 | -68,620 | - | | | | PS2508持仓量（手） | 69,821 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guotou Electric Power is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported stable performance in 2024 with a revenue of 57.819 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.643 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.92% [2][4] - The company’s hydropower segment showed significant growth due to abundant water resources, while thermal power benefited from new unit production and reduced coal costs, leading to a notable recovery in profitability [2][6] - The outlook for the company remains positive, with expectations of significant growth in hydropower performance and continued improvement in thermal power due to increased electricity generation and cost reductions [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 57.819 billion yuan, with a net profit of 6.643 billion yuan, and cash flow from operating activities increased by 15.93% to 24.657 billion yuan [2][7] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 13.122 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.99%, but net profit increased by 2.01% to 2.078 billion yuan [2] Segment Analysis - Hydropower: In 2024, the hydropower segment generated revenue of 26.624 billion yuan, a 4.1% increase, with a gross profit of 16.395 billion yuan, up 6.6% [4] - Thermal Power: The thermal power segment saw revenue of 21.775 billion yuan, a decline of 4.8%, but gross profit increased by 20.5% to 2.972 billion yuan [4] - New Energy: Revenue from new energy was 4.848 billion yuan, a 6.4% increase, but gross profit decreased by 13% to 2.234 billion yuan [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see significant growth in hydropower due to improved water conditions and the release of generation capacity from new projects [6][8] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 7.188 billion yuan, 7.477 billion yuan, and 7.623 billion yuan, respectively, indicating growth rates of 8.2%, 4.0%, and 2.0% [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guotou Electric Power is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported stable performance in 2024 with a revenue of 57.819 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.643 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.92% [1][2] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities increased by 15.93% to 24.657 billion yuan, indicating strong operational efficiency [2] - The hydropower segment benefited from abundant water resources, leading to a significant increase in electricity generation, while thermal power saw a recovery in profitability due to lower coal costs [2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 57.819 billion yuan, with a net profit of 6.643 billion yuan, and a basic earnings per share (EPS) of 0.87 yuan [1][7] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 13.424 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.22% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.652 billion yuan, down 90% [1][2] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 13.122 billion yuan, a decline of 6.99%, but a net profit of 2.078 billion yuan, an increase of 2.01% year-on-year [2] Segment Performance - Hydropower revenue in 2024 was 26.624 billion yuan, up 4.1%, with a gross profit of 16.395 billion yuan, up 6.6% [4] - Thermal power revenue decreased by 4.8% to 21.775 billion yuan, but gross profit increased by 20.5% to 2.972 billion yuan [4] - New energy revenue was 4.848 billion yuan, a growth of 6.4%, but gross profit fell by 13% to 2.234 billion yuan [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see significant growth in hydropower due to improved water conditions and the release of generation capacity from new plants [6][8] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 7.188 billion yuan, 7.477 billion yuan, and 7.623 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 8.2%, 4.0%, and 2.0% [8] - The company plans to increase its new energy capacity significantly, with a target of 1,472 MW by the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [8]