Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's fuel oil futures main contract closed up 0.3% at 2,713 yuan/ton, and the INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures main contract closed up 0.93% at 3,480 yuan/ton. Crude oil prices have shown a volatile downward trend recently, with a bearish cost-side guidance, and the FU and LU contract trends are also weak. The medium-term oil market balance sheet is expected to have an oversupply, but short-term attention should be paid to the progress of talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine. The US's attitude towards sanctions on Russia will affect market sentiment and bring additional price fluctuations [1]. - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil shows signs of stabilization, with a slight rebound in the outer market's monthly spread and crack spread, while the domestic market is weak but without prominent contradictions. Currently, the spot supply of high-sulfur oil remains relatively abundant, with high inventories in the Asia-Pacific region. Except for the peak-season effect of power plants, the demand side lacks growth momentum, and the upward driving force of the market is still limited. If the crack spread adjusts sufficiently in the future, attracting a significant rebound in refinery demand, the market structure is expected to strengthen again. The current event worthy of attention is the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. There have been signs of a rebound in Russia's high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in July and August. If the tripartite talks go smoothly, and the US relaxes sanctions on Russia and Ukraine stops drone attacks, Russia's fuel oil supply has room for further growth [2]. - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the current market pressure is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. Although domestic production has remained at a low level, overseas supply has rebounded. From a medium-term perspective, due to the relatively abundant remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract supply release. Moreover, the carbon-neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [2]. 3) Strategy Summary - High-sulfur fuel oil: Expected to fluctuate [3]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Expected to fluctuate [3]. - Cross-variety: No strategy [3]. - Cross-period: No strategy [3]. - Spot-futures: No strategy [3]. - Options: No strategy [3].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价重心小幅反弹，其中 WTI 8 月合约收盘上涨 0.55 美元至 | | | | 64.92 美元/桶，涨幅 0.85%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘上涨 0.54 美元 | | | | 至 67.68 美元/桶，涨幅 0.80%。SC2508 以 504.8 元/桶收盘，下跌 | | | | 3.9 元/桶，跌幅为 0.77%。EIA 公布的库存报告显示，截至 6 月 20 | | | | 日当周，美国商业原油库存减少 580 万桶至 4.151 亿桶，此前市 | | | | 场预期为减少 80 万桶。SPR 增加 20 万桶至 4.025 亿桶。俄克拉 | | | | 荷马州交割地库欣仓库的原油库存下滑 46.4 万桶。美国汽油库存 | | | | 减少 210 万桶至 2.279 亿桶，美国包括柴油和取暖油的馏分油库 | | | 原油 | 存减少 410 万桶至 1.053 亿桶。成品油库存去化整体高于预期。 | 震荡 | | | ...