Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's fuel oil futures main contract closed up 0.3% at 2,713 yuan/ton, and the INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures main contract closed up 0.93% at 3,480 yuan/ton. Crude oil prices have shown a volatile downward trend recently, with a bearish cost-side guidance, and the FU and LU contract trends are also weak. The medium-term oil market balance sheet is expected to have an oversupply, but short-term attention should be paid to the progress of talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine. The US's attitude towards sanctions on Russia will affect market sentiment and bring additional price fluctuations [1]. - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil shows signs of stabilization, with a slight rebound in the outer market's monthly spread and crack spread, while the domestic market is weak but without prominent contradictions. Currently, the spot supply of high-sulfur oil remains relatively abundant, with high inventories in the Asia-Pacific region. Except for the peak-season effect of power plants, the demand side lacks growth momentum, and the upward driving force of the market is still limited. If the crack spread adjusts sufficiently in the future, attracting a significant rebound in refinery demand, the market structure is expected to strengthen again. The current event worthy of attention is the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. There have been signs of a rebound in Russia's high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in July and August. If the tripartite talks go smoothly, and the US relaxes sanctions on Russia and Ukraine stops drone attacks, Russia's fuel oil supply has room for further growth [2]. - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the current market pressure is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. Although domestic production has remained at a low level, overseas supply has rebounded. From a medium-term perspective, due to the relatively abundant remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract supply release. Moreover, the carbon-neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [2]. 3) Strategy Summary - High-sulfur fuel oil: Expected to fluctuate [3]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Expected to fluctuate [3]. - Cross-variety: No strategy [3]. - Cross-period: No strategy [3]. - Spot-futures: No strategy [3]. - Options: No strategy [3].

Group 1 - Oil prices continue to rise, with Brent crude and WTI crude both increasing by 0.6%, following a previous significant rise of over 3.5% in the prior trading session [1] - The impact of U.S. sanctions on the oil market's supply-demand balance is expected to be significant, as Russia exports over 7 million barrels of crude and refined oil daily [1] - Despite potential easing of OPEC+ production plans, the global oil market may still face supply shortages in the worst-case scenario [1] Group 2 - Traders are closely monitoring the progress of U.S. trade negotiations and are awaiting comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for insights on future interest rate cuts [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. For crude oil, it will likely have a narrow - range oscillation, and there is potential for a slight upward shift in the price center. For fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, their prices are also expected to fluctuate, with some facing downward pressure due to factors such as supply - demand relationships and geopolitical situations [1][3][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the price center of oil rebounded slightly. The EIA inventory report showed significant declines in US commercial crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the OPEC+ meeting on July 6 are key factors affecting the supply - demand balance and price trends of the oil market [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil declined on Wednesday. The import and export volumes of Chinese bonded marine fuel oil in May showed different trends. In June, the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is expected to increase, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market in Asia is supported by summer power generation demand [3]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract fell on Wednesday. The July production plan of refineries is expected to increase year - on - year but decrease slightly month - on - month. The current influencing factors include cost - side oil prices and weak demand [3][5]. - **Polyester**: The prices of TA, EG, and PX showed different trends on Wednesday. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light, and there are plans for production cuts. The operation of Iranian terminals and the passage through the Strait of Hormuz are normal, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production of ethylene glycol plants [5]. - **Rubber**: The prices of main rubber contracts showed different trends on Wednesday. EU passenger car sales in May increased year - on - year, but the cumulative sales in the first five months decreased. The social inventory of natural rubber in China increased slightly, and the raw material prices declined [6]. - **Methanol**: The prices of methanol and its downstream products are presented. After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the resumption of production of Iranian plants is expected to increase the arrival volume, and the price of methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The prices and production profits of polypropylene and polyethylene are provided. After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran and the decline in oil prices, the prices of polyolefins are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The prices of PVC in different regions showed different trends. As the downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, but the narrowing of arbitrage and hedging space is expected to keep the price in an oscillatory state [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on June 25, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The EIA inventory report shows that in the week ending June 20, US commercial crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased significantly, while the strategic petroleum reserve increased. The product supply of US gasoline reached the highest level since December 2021, and the refinery utilization rate reached the highest level since July 2024 [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [12][14][16] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc., from 2021 to 2025 [30][33][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [46][48][51] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spread charts between different varieties, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, etc. [63][67][69] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [74][75][78] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [80][81][82] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [85]