1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current major driving factor for crude oil is geopolitical factors. With the U.S. increasing its military presence in the Middle East and potential actions against Iran, short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - Fuel oil prices are affected by factors such as demand recovery, supply changes, and geopolitical situations. Short - term prices of FU and LU are volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - For asphalt, with a slight decline in refinery production in February and weak demand in the off - season, attention should be paid to the speed of social inventory accumulation [3]. - The polyester sector has a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and downstream negative feedback [5]. - Rubber prices are affected by production and consumption data, as well as cost - side factors. They are expected to follow the macro - environment and cost - side price fluctuations [5][7]. - Methanol supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to maintain bottom - level fluctuations [7]. - Polyolefins are expected to gradually start accumulating inventory, but short - term prices are strong due to cost and geopolitical risks, showing wide - range fluctuations [8]. - PVC has a structure of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected to maintain bottom - level fluctuations, with support in the short - term and upward pressure in the long - term [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices rose significantly. WTI March contract rose $2.21 to $65.42 per barrel, a 3.50% increase; Brent March contract rose $2.31 to $70.71 per barrel, a 3.38% increase; SC2603 closed at 480.9 yuan per barrel, up 13.9 yuan per barrel, a 2.98% increase. The U.S. has increased its military presence in the Middle East, and OPEC+ will hold a meeting on Sunday. The current major driving factor for oil prices is geopolitical factors, and short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. As of the week of January 26, Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory decreased, while Fujeirah's inventory increased. The low - sulfur fuel oil market in Singapore is supported by demand, but there may be inventory accumulation pressure in the future. High - sulfur fuel oil has mixed factors. Short - term prices of FU and LU are volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. This week, domestic asphalt shipments decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased. In February, refinery production is expected to decline slightly, and demand is weak in the off - season. Attention should be paid to the speed of social inventory accumulation [3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 and EG2605 closed down on Thursday. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. A polyester factory in Shandong has shut down for maintenance, and a MEG device in Fujian has restarted. The polyester sector has a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and is expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. According to the ANRPC December report, global natural rubber production decreased and consumption increased in December. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber increased slightly. Rubber prices are expected to follow the macro - environment and cost - side price fluctuations [5][7]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, methanol spot prices showed different trends in different regions. Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. MTO device load has decreased, and port inventory reduction is under pressure. It is expected to maintain bottom - level fluctuations [7]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, polyolefin prices showed different trends. Supply is at a high level as some upstream maintenance devices have resumed production. Demand will weaken as downstream factories approach the Spring Festival holiday. It is expected to gradually start accumulating inventory, but short - term prices are strong due to cost and geopolitical risks, showing wide - range fluctuations [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, PVC prices in different regions showed different trends. Supply is at a high level, and domestic demand is slowing down. PVC has a structure of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected to maintain bottom - level fluctuations, with support in the short - term and upward pressure in the long - term [8]. Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the daily basis data of various energy - chemical products on January 30, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes and historical quantiles [9]. Market News - Due to U.S. President Trump's consideration of military strikes against Iran, an OPEC member, crude oil prices rose by more than 3%. Trump is weighing targeted strikes against Iranian security forces and leaders to support anti - government protesters and create conditions for regime change [11]. - Trump has deployed the "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East and warned Iran that the time to reach an agreement on its nuclear program is running out. The market is worried that U.S. military intervention will lead to an interruption in regional crude oil supply, and potential supply risks continue to support oil prices [11]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report provides the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][15][17] - **Main Contract Basis**: The report provides the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [32][35][39] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as the spread between fuel oil 01 - 05 and 05 - 09 contracts, the spread between asphalt main and sub - main contracts, etc. [45][47][50] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - commodity contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as the spread between crude oil internal and external markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils, etc. [61][64][66] - **Production Profit**: The report provides the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, such as the production profit of LLDPE, the processing fee of PTA, etc. [68][70]

早上好，原油市场传来利空，金价再创新高！ 22日晚，美国能源部长赖特在世界经济论坛上呼吁将全球石油产量提高1倍以上，以满足不断增长的需 求并防止能源贫困。他强调了全球能源供应和获取方面面临的重大挑战。 谈及美伊关系时，特朗普称，伊朗方面有意与美国接触，并暗示双方可能恢复外交沟通。特朗普在出席 所谓"和平委员会"相关活动时称："伊朗确实想谈，我们也会谈。"但他未就对话的具体形式、时间或议 题作出进一步说明。 俄乌局势方面，乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，乌克兰、美国和俄罗斯的三方会谈将于23日在阿联酋举行， 他表示这是技术层面的会谈。据悉，此次三方会谈将持续两天。 据悉，美国总统特使威特科夫和特朗普女婿库什纳与俄罗斯总统普京的会晤将于23日进行。 此外，威特科夫表示，俄乌和平进程已取得重大进展，如今已到了最后阶段，他保持乐观态度。在访问 俄罗斯之后，他将前往阿联酋，参加美、俄、乌三方工作组会议。 受此影响，国际油价下跌。 截至今晨收盘，WTI原油期货主力合约下跌1.57%，布伦特原油期货主力合约下跌1.23%。 贵金属方面，伦敦金现货价格收涨3.31%，报4935.75美元/盎司；伦敦银现货价格大涨近6%。沪金、沪 银 ...

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - U.S. Energy Secretary urged to double global oil production to meet rising demand and prevent energy poverty, highlighting significant challenges in global energy supply and access [1] - International oil prices fell in response to the call for increased production [2] - As of the latest close, WTI crude futures fell by 1.57% and Brent crude futures dropped by 1.23% [4] Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - London gold spot price increased by 3.31%, reaching $4,935.75 per ounce, while London silver surged nearly 6% [5] - Domestic futures for gold and silver also saw significant gains [6] Group 3: Turkish Central Bank Policy - Turkish Central Bank announced a 100 basis point cut in the policy rate, reducing it from 38% to 37%, indicating a continued tight monetary policy stance until price stability is achieved [7] - Following the announcement, Turkey's main banking index dropped over 2% [8] Group 4: Oil Supply Concerns - The American Petroleum Institute reported a 3 million barrel increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [9] - Analysts suggest that geopolitical factors and regional supply-demand imbalances are currently influencing the oil market [10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, ethylene glycol [2][4][7][8] - **Bearish Continuation**: L, PP, PVC, glass, soda ash [2][8] - **Cautiously Bullish**: PX/PTA, methanol, urea, natural gas [4][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ maintains its production policy, and the supply glut in the off - season dominates the market. Geopolitical factors from Russia - Ukraine and South America affect prices. Short - term support exists, but long - term downward pressure is large [2][11]. - **LPG**: Cost support declines, and demand weakens, causing the price to fall. Although downstream chemical demand has some resilience, the overall trend is downward [2]. - **L**: Cost support weakens, supply is sufficient, and demand after the peak season is insufficient. The market sentiment for short - selling continues [2]. - **PP**: Cost support weakens, supply pressure eases slightly, but demand is weak. The market remains bearish in the medium - to - long term [2]. - **PVC**: Although there is low - valuation support, the social inventory is high, and the upward driving force is insufficient. Short - term trading depends on funds, and long - term long - positions await inventory reduction [2]. - **PX/PTA**: Processing fees are low, device maintenance is high, supply pressure eases, and downstream demand is good. Short - term supply - demand is tight, and there are opportunities to go long on dips [4][31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Domestic production load increases, but future device maintenance is expected to ease supply pressure. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in December. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [4]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory is decreasing, demand is improving, and the cost has some support. Although the supply pressure still exists, there are opportunities to go long on the 05 contract on dips [4]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure is high currently but is expected to ease in mid - December. Demand is weak domestically but strong overseas. There are opportunities to go long on dips [4]. - **Natural Gas**: Entering the consumption peak season, demand increases, and the price is expected to be strong [8]. - **Asphalt**: Cost is mainly affected by oil prices, and demand enters the off - season. The price still has room to decline [8]. - **Glass**: The daily melting volume is decreasing, and demand is weak. The short - term depends on cold - repair implementation, and the long - term is bearish [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Warehouse receipts are increasing, supply is loose, and demand is declining. Short - sell the 01 contract and wait to short on rebounds in the long - term [8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 0.53%, Brent up 0.35%, and SC down 0.88% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ maintains production policy, supply is in surplus in the off - season, and global and US inventories are increasing. Russian exports are expected to increase, and Indian imports from Russia may decrease [11][12]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC at [445 - 455] [13]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On December 3, the PG main contract closed at 4292 yuan/ton, down 0.81%. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [15]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost is linked to oil prices and trends downward. Supply increases, and demand from downstream chemicals has some resilience, but MTBE blending demand declines. Inventories in refineries and ports decrease [16]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG at [4250 - 4350] [17]. L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 6699 yuan/ton. Spot prices and related indicators had minor changes [20]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost support strengthens temporarily, but supply is sufficient, and demand after the peak season is insufficient. Oil prices may decline in the medium - term [21]. - **Strategy**: Exit short positions due to improved market sentiment. Wait to short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the range of L at [6750 - 6900] [21]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6265 yuan/ton. Spot prices and related indicators changed slightly [24]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure eases slightly due to increased shutdowns, but demand is weak. Propylene warehouse receipts may affect the market [25]. - **Strategy**: Short - term is relatively strong, but wait to short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term. Consider going long on PP processing fees 01. Pay attention to the ranges of PP at [6350 - 6500] and propylene at [5850 - 6000] [25]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 contract closed at 4586 yuan/ton. Spot prices and related indicators had minor changes [28]. - **Fundamentals**: Warehouse receipts decline from a high level, calcium carbide prices rise. Social inventory is high, but low - valuation support exists [29]. - **Strategy**: Try to go long on pull - backs according to fund dynamics in the short - term. Wait for inventory reduction to go long in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of V at [4500 - 4700] [29]. PTA - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices of PTA changed slightly, and processing fees decreased [30]. - **Fundamentals**: Processing fees are low, device maintenance is high, supply pressure eases, downstream demand is good, and the cost of PX is supportive. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in December [31]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA at [4690 - 4750] [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The overall market shows a downward trend, and the price fluctuates with cost [34]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production load increases, but future device maintenance is expected to ease supply pressure. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in December, and downstream demand is good but orders are weakening [34]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG at [3791 - 3841] [35]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The main contract's position decreases, and the price fluctuates [38]. - **Fundamentals**: Port inventory decreases, domestic production load increases, overseas production decreases, and demand improves. The cost has some support [38]. - **Strategy**: The rebound height of the 01 contract may be limited. Pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips for the 05 contract. Pay attention to the range of MA at [2105 - 2145] [41]. Urea - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices change slightly, and warehouse receipts increase [42]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is high currently but is expected to ease in mid - December. Demand is weak domestically but strong overseas. Inventory decreases slightly but remains high [43]. - **Strategy**: Lightly go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of UR at [1665 - 1700] [44]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On December 2, the NG main contract closed at 4.840 dollars/million British thermal units, down 1.65% [47]. - **Fundamentals**: The EU plans to ban Russian gas imports, increasing demand for US LNG. Entering the consumption peak season, demand increases, and inventory in the US decreases [48]. - **Strategy**: The price is likely to rise due to increased demand in the peak season. Pay attention to the range of NG at [4.870 - 5.000] [49]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On December 3, the BU main contract closed at 2952 yuan/ton, up 1.23%. Spot prices in different regions decreased slightly [52]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost is affected by oil prices, supply decreases slightly, demand increases slightly in the short - term, and inventory decreases [53]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU at [2900 - 3000] [54]. Glass - **Market Performance**: Futures prices decline, and spot prices in different regions change slightly [56]. - **Fundamentals**: The daily melting volume decreases, and demand is weak due to the real - estate market. The short - term depends on cold - repair implementation [58]. - **Strategy**: Short - term may be relatively strong depending on cold - repair implementation, and wait to short on rebounds in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of FG at [1020 - 1070] [58]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: Futures prices change slightly, and warehouse receipts increase [60]. - **Fundamentals**: Warehouse receipts increase, supply is loose, and demand from the glass industry decreases [62]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell the 01 contract and wait to short on rebounds in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of SA at [1150 - 1200] [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues to experience weak and volatile trends, with olefins showing weakness and aromatics presenting a slightly stronger pattern [4]. - In December, the rebound space of the industry is expected to be limited under the weak fundamental outlook, and special attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - **Geopolitical Factors**: The situation in the Caribbean region remains tense. After the reduction of Russian oil output, the marginal positive impact of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has diminished. The OPEC+ production policy is set until the first quarter of next year, with limited short - term disturbances. The global crude oil inventory has been rising since the fourth quarter, and the situation of supply surplus is difficult to change [7]. - **Chemical Industry**: The chemical industry as a whole continues to fluctuate and consolidate. Most liquid chemicals have accumulated inventory this week. The reduction of disproportionation load will help reduce the supply of pure benzene [3]. 3.2 Variety Analysis - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical premiums fluctuate, and supply pressure persists. The weak fundamental situation in December limits the rebound space, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances [4][7]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt profits continue to be compressed. The supply and demand are both weak, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is high [4][8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price of high - sulfur fuel oil shows a weak and volatile trend. The three major drivers supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are currently weak, and the demand is relatively weak [4][8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil shows a weak and volatile trend. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, substitution by green energy and high - sulfur fuel, but its current valuation is low and it follows the movement of crude oil [4][10]. - **Methanol**: The unloading at coastal areas fails to meet expectations, and the supply - demand situation in the inland provides phased support, so the upward trend of methanol continues [4]. - **Urea**: The progress of off - season storage slows down, and the futures market fluctuates and consolidates [4]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The rebound height is limited under the pressure of supply and demand, and the price fluctuates widely [4]. - **PX**: The market anticipates a shortage of raw materials in the second quarter in advance, and short - term benefits remain strong [4]. - **PTA**: Supported by strong upstream costs and an improved supply - demand pattern, the price rises synchronously [4]. - **Short Fibers**: Downstream customers make moderate replenishments in stages, but the willingness to continuously chase price increases is not strong [4]. - **Bottle Chips**: The support from the cost side strengthens, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants [4]. - **Propylene**: Driven by PG, PL fluctuates and rebounds [4]. - **PP**: Driven by propane but with limited fundamental support, attention should be paid to changes in maintenance [4]. - **Plastic**: The support from maintenance is limited, and the price fluctuates [4]. - **Styrene**: The inventory reduction continues in December, and market sentiment improves [4]. - **PVC**: There is a game between long and short positions, and PVC shows a weak rebound [4]. - **Caustic Soda**: The marginal cost decreases, and caustic soda fluctuates weakly [4]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spreads**: The report provides the latest values and changes of inter - period spreads for various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [31]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, changes in basis, and the number of warehouse receipts for different varieties including asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [32]. - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: The report presents the latest values and changes of inter - variety spreads for different combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, ethylene glycol, urea, asphalt, soda ash [1][3][5] - **Cautiously Bullish**: PX/PTA, methanol, natural gas [3][5] - **Bearish Rebound**: L, PP, glass [1][5] - **Bearish Continuation**: Soda ash [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ maintains production policy, supply surplus in the off - season dominates. Geopolitical tensions ease, and prices are under pressure. Consider partial profit - taking on short positions [1][8]. - **LPG**: Saudi Arabia raises CP contract price, but the market has priced it in. There is short - term correction pressure. Consider buying put options [1]. - **L**: Cost support improves, but supply is sufficient, and demand weakens after November. Close short positions and wait for a rebound to go short [1]. - **PP**: 12 - month CP quote rises, providing cost support. Supply is under pressure, and there is a high de - stocking pressure. Close short positions and wait for a rebound to go short [1]. - **PVC**: Chlor - alkali profit is compressed. Social inventory is high, but there is low - valuation support. Consider short - term long positions based on capital dynamics and long - term long positions after inventory de - stocking [1]. - **PX/PTA**: Processing fees are low, supply pressure eases due to device maintenance, and downstream demand is good. Consider going long on dips [3]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply pressure may ease with future device maintenance, but there is a cumulative inventory expectation in December. Lack of upward drivers, consider short positions on rebounds [3]. - **Methanol**: Port inventory is decreasing, but supply pressure is still high. Consider going long on 05 contract on dips [3]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure is large, demand is weak domestically and strong overseas. Consider short positions on rebounds [3]. - **Natural Gas**: Entering the consumption peak season, demand is supported, and prices are likely to rise [5]. - **Asphalt**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices are under pressure. Continue to hold short positions [5]. - **Glass**: Pay attention to the implementation of cold - repair plans. Short - term may be strong, but long - term is bearish [5]. - **Soda Ash**: Warehouse receipts increase, supply is in a long - term high - production cycle, and demand is weak. Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread and wait for a rebound to go short [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On November 27, WTI decreased by 0.17%, Brent decreased by 0.78%, and SC increased by 1.30% [7]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ maintains production policy, supply surplus in the off - season, and geopolitical tensions ease [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply: US oil rig count decreases, and Mexican oil production declines. Demand: OPEC expects global oil demand to increase in 2025 and 2026. Inventory: US crude and refined product inventories increase [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider partial profit - taking on short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [450 - 460] [10]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Review**: On November 28, the PG main contract closed at 4361 yuan/ton, up 2.16% [11]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost is linked to crude oil, downstream demand is resilient, and inventory decreases [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not chase the rise, buy put options. Pay attention to the range of PG [4350 - 4450] [13]. 3.3 L - **Market Review**: L2601 contract closed at 6699 yuan/ton [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, but supply is sufficient, and demand weakens after November [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of L [6750 - 6900] [18]. 3.4 PP - **Market Review**: PP2601 closed at 6265 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basic Logic**: 12 - month CP quote rises, supply is under pressure, and there is a high de - stocking pressure [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of PP [6350 - 6500] [22]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Review**: V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton [25]. - **Basic Logic**: Chlor - alkali profit is compressed, social inventory is high, but there is low - valuation support [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - term long positions based on capital dynamics and long - term long positions after inventory de - stocking. Pay attention to the range of V [4500 - 4700] [26]. 3.6 PX/PTA - **Market Review**: TA05 closed at 4752 yuan/ton [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Processing fees are low, supply pressure eases due to device maintenance, and downstream demand is good. There is a cumulative inventory expectation in December [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider going long on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA [4650 - 4740] [29]. 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: Not explicitly mentioned. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic coal - based ethylene glycol device starts to increase, but future integrated device maintenance will ease supply pressure. There is a cumulative inventory expectation in December [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG [3850 - 3920] [32]. 3.8 Methanol - **Market Review**: Not explicitly mentioned. - **Basic Logic**: Taicang spot strengthens, port inventory decreases, supply pressure is high, and demand improves [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to pay attention to going long on the 05 contract on dips. Pay attention to the range of MA [2105 - 2145] [38]. 3.9 Urea - **Market Review**: URO5 closed at 1743 yuan/ton [39]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is large, demand is weak domestically and strong overseas, and inventory is high [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of UR [1640 - 1680] [41]. 3.10 Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On November 27, the NG main contract closed at 4.850 dollars/million British thermal units, up 6.41% [43]. - **Basic Logic**: EU bans Russian gas imports, entering the consumption peak season, and demand is supported [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gas prices are likely to rise. Pay attention to the range of NG [4.680 - 5.000] [45]. 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Review**: On November 28, the BU main contract closed at 2996 yuan/ton, down 0.37% [48]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost is linked to crude oil, supply is sufficient, and demand is in the off - season [49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU [2950 - 3050] [50]. 3.12 Glass - **Market Review**: FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton [53]. - **Basic Logic**: Multiple production lines plan cold - repair in December, but demand is weak [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to cold - repair implementation. Short - term may be strong, long - term is bearish. Pay attention to the range of FG [1020 - 1070] [54]. 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Review**: SA2601 closed at 1239 yuan/ton [57]. - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts increase, supply is in a long - term high - production cycle, and demand is weak [58]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread and wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of SA [1140 - 1180] [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry is expected to continue its range - bound consolidation. The short - term performance of each variety varies, with factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and geopolitical situations influencing their trends [4]. - For crude oil, short - term drivers are lacking, and the market is expected to remain volatile. The supply pressure in the real - world remains, but OPEC+ is becoming more cautious about increasing production, showing a willingness to support prices. The actual reduction in Russian oil supply in mid - to late November needs attention [9][10]. - For asphalt, the spot price is falling, and the futures price is oscillating. The premium - driving factors are weakening, and there is still significant inventory accumulation pressure [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News - US sanctions on Russia's Lukoil have affected its European business, and multiple European countries' winter energy supplies may be at risk. Bulgaria's available gasoline can only last about a month, and its diesel reserves can last over 50 days [10]. - The Trump administration's plan to sell new offshore oil exploration rights on the US West Coast is likely to fail [10]. - Venezuela did not seek military support from Russia despite the tense regional situation [10]. 3.2 Variety Analysis Crude Oil - On November 11, the short - term drivers were lacking, and the market continued to oscillate. The global inventory was rising, showing supply pressure in the real - world. However, the improvement in refined - oil inventory pressure and strong crack spreads provided phased support to the demand side. OPEC+ was cautious about increasing production, and the price was expected to oscillate. The actual reduction in Russian oil supply in mid - to late November needed attention [9][10]. Asphalt - On November 11, the spot price fell, and the futures price oscillated. The OPEC+ group planned to increase production in December, the Israel - Palestine conflict ended, and the situation between the US and Venezuela was under control. The asphalt futures price broke below the important support level of 3200 yuan/ton, which was expected to turn into a resistance level. The asphalt - fuel oil spread oscillated around 400 yuan/ton. The production schedule in November decreased significantly, but the demand entered the off - season. The supply tension was relieved, and the high - premium driving factors were weakening [11]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - On November 11, it showed a weak oscillation. The OPEC+ group planned to increase production in December, the Israel - Palestine conflict ended, but the premium on Russian oil still existed. The fuel - oil supply in the Asia - Pacific region in November was expected to decrease due to the decline in Russian exports. The fuel - oil price still needed to pay attention to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The refinery processing demand was weak, and the fuel - oil demand was still sluggish [11]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - On November 11, it might show a moderately upward oscillation. It followed the crude - oil price and oscillated weakly. The domestic refined - oil supply pressure increased, and the low - sulfur fuel oil was under the trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand. However, its current valuation was low and it would follow the crude - oil price fluctuations [13]. PX - On November 11, the commodity market sentiment cooled down, and it was waiting for contradictions to accumulate under the stalemate in profitability. The financial market risk appetite recovered, but the international oil price lacked further positive support. The PX price followed the cost and adjusted downward. The supply remained at a high level, and the price was expected to remain within a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether the gasoline profit changes would drive further trade flows [14]. PTA - On November 11, the supply - demand situation improved month - on - month, and the processing fee was repaired. The upstream cost cooled down, and the PTA price followed the decline. The supply - demand pattern improved slightly due to some device overhauls, and the spot processing fee was repaired month - on - month. However, the profit - repair space was relatively limited without unplanned overhauls [15][16]. Pure Benzene - On November 11, the port resumed inventory accumulation, and it was running weakly. The pure - benzene - to - naphtha spread was below 100, at a low level in recent years. The downstream benzene - ethylene overhauls were numerous in November, and the inventory - accumulation pressure was mainly on the pure - benzene side. The upward driving force was currently insufficient, but the valuation was at a low level [18][19]. Styrene - On November 11, the inventory - filling pressure still existed, and it was oscillating weakly. The driving force for going long was insufficient, but the short - selling space was getting smaller. The benzene - ethylene inventory began to decrease, but the pure - benzene inventory pressure reappeared. The pressure in November was mainly on the cost side of pure benzene [20]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - On November 11, the long - shutdown device restarted as scheduled, and the supply pressure was gradually realized. The polyester - chain commodity sentiment cooled down, and the ethylene - glycol price adjusted downward. The supply pressure increased as the long - shutdown device restarted, and the inventory - accumulation pattern continued. The price was expected to remain in a low - level range in the short term [21][22]. Short - Fiber - On November 11, the market was characterized by buying on dips and avoiding buying on rallies, and attention should be paid to the off - season to peak - season transition. The polyester upstream price adjusted downward, and the short - fiber price followed the cost and decreased slightly. The market was in the off - season to peak - season transition period, and the downstream demand was expected to weaken. The short - fiber price was expected to move within a range [24][25]. Polyester Bottle Chip - On November 11, the market performance was dull, and it was passively following the cost. The upstream polyester raw material price adjusted downward, and the polyester bottle - chip price decreased slightly. The short - term supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, and it followed the upstream price fluctuations. The processing fee was expected to be adjusted within a range [26]. Methanol - On November 11, the high - inventory reality suppressed the price, and overseas disturbances were not significant. The methanol price was oscillating and consolidating. The high inventory in coastal areas and sufficient imports suppressed the market, and the actual trading atmosphere was weak. The inland methanol also faced high - inventory pressure and relied on downstream olefin procurement and traders' willingness to hold goods [28]. Urea - On November 11, the export information boosted the spot market, but downstream transactions became cautious, and the futures price was expected to oscillate in the short term. The fourth - batch export quota information significantly boosted the spot market, but the high - inventory pressure still existed, and the short - term fundamentals were difficult to support high prices [28]. LLDPE - On November 11, the maintenance support was still limited, and it was oscillating weakly. The oil price was oscillating, and the supply - side support was limited. With the end of the peak season, the upstream and mid - stream still had the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, which would suppress the price increase. The short - term futures price was expected to remain weak before the significant increase in maintenance [29]. PP - On November 11, the downstream transactions increased, but the maintenance support was limited, and it was oscillating downward. The futures price was oscillating downward. The downstream transactions increased as the price decreased. The supply - side support was limited, and the inventory was at a high level in the same period in the past five years. The price was expected to remain weak in the short term [30]. PL - On November 11, the inventory needed time to be digested, and it was oscillating weakly. The Saudi Aramco's November CP prices for propane and butane decreased. The downstream restocking enthusiasm weakened, and the enterprise inventory was slightly high. The PL price was expected to remain weak in the short term [31]. PVC - On November 11, the weak reality suppressed the price, and it was oscillating weakly. The macro - level disturbances in November subsided, and the PVC fundamentals were under pressure. The production was expected to increase, the downstream demand was seasonally weakening, the export orders were weakening, and the cost was expected to remain stable [33]. Caustic Soda - On November 11, it was in a low - valuation and weak - expectation state and was oscillating. The macro - level disturbances in November subsided, and the caustic - soda supply - demand expectation was poor. Attention should be paid to whether the low - profit situation would drive upstream production cuts. The cost might increase due to the possible decline in liquid - chlorine price, and the futures price was expected to oscillate widely [34]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showed different changes, including increases and decreases [36]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse - receipt data of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., were presented, with corresponding changes in the basis and specific warehouse - receipt quantities [37]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads between different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc., also showed different changes [39]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - For each variety, detailed basis and spread data were provided, but specific content was not elaborated in the text, only the variety names were mentioned [40][52][64]. 3.4 Commodity Index - On November 11, the comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of the CITIC Futures Commodity Index showed different degrees of decline. The energy index also showed a decline on that day, with a decline of 0.56%, a decline of 0.99% in the past five days, an increase of 2.04% in the past month, and a decline of 5.98% since the beginning of the year [280][281].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil is in a volatile pattern due to the co - existence of supply pressure and geopolitical risks. OPEC+ decided to continue increasing production in December 2025 but pause in Q1 2026. The high inventory and surplus supply are bearish factors, while strong refined - product crack spreads, geopolitical attacks on refineries are bullish factors [1]. - Liquid chemical products faced a significant decline on Monday. Ethylene glycol has a supply - surplus expectation, and the styrene - pure benzene market may continue to decline without major supply cuts or demand surges [2]. - Overall, crude oil will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the chemical supply side still faces significant pressure [3]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks remain. Overseas crack spreads are strong, but domestic refinery profits are under pressure. OPEC+ is more cautious about increasing production, and oil prices may move from the bottom - seeking to the bottom - grinding stage. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. Asphalt - **View**: With the weakening of crude oil and rebar, asphalt futures prices lack support. The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [8]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: As crude oil weakens, fuel oil futures prices are on the weak side. Although the supply in the Asia - Pacific region may decline in November, the demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [8]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: It fluctuates with crude oil. It is supported by the rebound of gasoline and diesel crack spreads but faces negative factors such as weak shipping demand. It is expected to follow crude oil fluctuations with a relatively low valuation [9][10]. Methanol - **View**: Suppressed by the high - inventory reality in the near term, methanol fluctuates downward. Although the port inventory has decreased slightly, the high inventory still has a suppressing effect, but there is still value in going long at low levels considering potential Iranian disturbances [24]. Urea - **View**: There is a co - existence of high - inventory suppression and cost support, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The high inventory restricts the upward space of futures prices, while coal costs provide support [25]. Ethylene Glycol - **View**: The expectation of supply surplus suppresses the market, and there is no fundamental positive support. With the return of integrated refineries and concentrated imports, the price is expected to decline in the medium - and long - term under the expectation of inventory accumulation [15][16][17]. PX - **View**: Although some plants are under reform and maintenance, PX supply is not affected. With strong supply and demand, the profit supports the price. It is expected to return to the cost - and - fundamental pricing logic in the short term and maintain range - bound trading [11]. PTA - **View**: The supply - demand drive is limited, the market negotiation fades, and the basis weakens slightly. The price is affected by cost and macro - sentiment fluctuations, and there is a weakening expectation in the medium term [11]. Short - Fiber - **View**: There is an expectation of weakening supply and demand, and the processing fee is under pressure. The upstream cost support is weak, and the downstream demand fails to keep up, so the price is expected to fluctuate with the upstream [19][20]. Bottle Chip - **View**: The cost provides no obvious guidance, the volatility narrows, and the trading atmosphere fades. The price follows the cost fluctuations, and the processing fee has stronger support during the factory production - reduction period [21]. Propylene - **View**: The propane CP price is reduced again, and PL is weaker than PP in the short term [29]. PP - **View**: With the decline in maintenance and high inventory pressure, it is expected to trade within a range. The decrease in maintenance leads to an increase in production, and the high - level inventory in the middle reaches suppresses the price [28]. Plastic - **View**: With the short - term decline in maintenance, it is expected to trade within a range. The supply pressure and weak fundamental support limit the price upside, and the profit support is also limited [27]. Styrene - **View**: There is still a concern about inventory swelling, and it fluctuates weakly. Although there are some disturbances in the cost - side pure benzene supply, it cannot reverse the situation, and the subsequent trend depends on crude oil [13]. PVC - **View**: The market sentiment cools down, and it fluctuates weakly. After the end of maintenance in early November, the production will increase, while the downstream demand is weak, and the export is also under pressure [30]. Caustic Soda - **View**: The supply - demand is under pressure, and the cost rises. The inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is weak. Attention should be paid to whether low profits can drive upstream production cuts [30]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring Energy Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. have different changes, which reflect the market's expectations for different contract periods of each variety [32]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse - receipt data of different varieties are presented, showing the relationship between spot and futures prices and the quantity of goods in storage [33]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The spreads between different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. are provided, which can be used to analyze the relative price relationships between different chemical products [34]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report mentions the basis and spread monitoring of multiple chemical varieties including methanol, urea, etc., but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content. 5. Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2250.33 (+0.10%), the commodity 20 index is 2546.82 (+0.02%), and the industrial product index is 2237.50 (+0.09%) [273]. - **Energy Index**: On November 3, 2025, the energy index was 1178.10, with a daily increase of 1.69%, a 5 - day increase of 0.79%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.81%, and a year - to - date decrease of 4.06% [275].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the energy and chemical products are rated as "oscillating weakly", including crude oil, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, PX, PTA, etc. Some are rated as "oscillating", such as urea, PVC, and caustic soda [4][7][9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall energy and chemical sector continues to be in a weak pattern. The crude oil market is under pressure from fundamentals and macro - disturbances, and its price direction is downward, although the rhythm is affected by various factors. The bottom of the petrochemical industry is determined by crude oil, and due to factors such as over - supply and some varieties' capacity expansion, the chemical industry will maintain a weak trend [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The Fed's hint of a possible October rate cut and the market's expectation of improved Sino - US relations led to a rebound in the US stock market and a significant rise in the Chinese A - share market on Wednesday. This slightly boosted the crude oil price, which had fallen to a five - month low. The reports from three major energy agencies show that the expected growth in global crude oil demand in 2025 is 700,000 barrels per day, which contradicts the large - scale production increases of OPEC + and some countries [2] 3.2 Sector Logic - Chemical products continue to be in a weak pattern. The measure of imposing port fees on each other's ships by China and the US has little impact on the supply - demand of varieties, only causing some disturbances in the trading process. The bottom of the petrochemical industry is determined by crude oil, and due to factors such as some varieties' good benefits and capacity expansion, the chemical industry will maintain a weak trend [3] 3.3 Variety Analysis - **Crude Oil**: Macro factors affect the rhythm, and the fundamentals are under continuous pressure. The API data shows a significant accumulation of US crude oil inventories last week, and the global supply is in a production - increasing period dominated by the high - growth rate of OPEC + production. The oil price is expected to continue to be weakly oscillating [7] - **Asphalt**: The decline has slowed down, and the asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate. The geopolitical premium has declined, the supply tension has been significantly alleviated, and the over - valuation premium is starting to fall [9] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price has entered an oscillating mode. The end of the Palestine - Israel conflict is negative for high - sulfur fuel oil, and the demand is still weak [9] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate. It is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, and is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation [10] - **PX**: The international oil price is in a stalemate, and PX has limited variables and follows the market to consolidate. The supply and demand are both strong, and the processing fee support is enhanced [12] - **PTA**: The polyester profit has expanded passively, and the sales volume has increased. However, the PTA processing fee is still under pressure. The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable, and the spot benefit is still under pressure [12] - **Short - Fiber**: The processing fee support is good, and the factory's willingness to sell goods has increased. The overall supply - demand pattern has certain support in the short term [18] - **Bottle Chip**: The short - term processing fee of bottle chips has improved. The upstream polyester raw materials are weakly sorted, and attention should be paid to whether polyester factories increase production due to profit repair [19] - **Methanol**: The port inventory has slightly decreased, and methanol is expected to oscillate widely. The port inventory is still at a relatively high level, but considering the possible disturbances in Iran in winter, methanol still has low - buying value [23] - **Urea**: The spot price is firm, but the futures price is under pressure. The supply - demand pattern of "strong supply and weak demand" remains unchanged, and the enterprise inventory continues to accumulate [24] - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: There are no obvious positive factors, and the supply - demand is relatively under pressure. The futures price is seeking support. There is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation in the far - month, and the price is expected to be weakly sorted [16] - **PP**: The oil price is weakly operating, and PP continues to decline. The supply - demand fundamentals support is limited, and the high inventory will suppress the price [29] - **Plastic**: The oil price has fallen, and combined with macro - disturbances, plastic oscillates weakly. The self - fundamental support is limited, and the upper - middle reaches have the intention to reduce inventory [28] - **Styrene**: The price has broken through the previous low and rebounded slightly after the decline. The high port inventory is the main pressure, and the price is expected to have limited rebound [15] - **PVC**: It has low valuation and weak expectations and oscillates. The macro - level Sino - US tariff disturbance has reappeared, and the micro - level fundamentals are under pressure, with the cost moving down [33] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has stabilized, and the short - position on the futures market should stop profit when the price is low. The short - term spot supply - demand has improved, and future inventory replenishment needs to be concerned [34] 3.4 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, which can reflect the market's expectations for the future price trends of various varieties [35] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of each variety are provided, which can help analyze the relationship between the spot and futures prices and the market's delivery situation [36] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spread data shows the price differences between different varieties, which is helpful for cross - variety arbitrage analysis [38] 3.5 Commodity Index - On October 15, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2232.58, up 0.41%; the commodity 20 index was 2533.12, up 0.57%; the industrial products index was 2189.17, down 0.09%; the PPI commodity index was 1321.22, up 0.27%. The energy index was 1122.04, with a daily decline of 0.82%, a 5 - day decline of 4.56%, a 1 - month decline of 6.33%, and a year - to - date decline of 8.62% [280][281]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global geopolitical tensions and US tariff proposals have led to a stagnant oil market, with traders on the sidelines. The decline in domestic manufacturing activity and weakening domestic and export demand have dragged down domestic commodities and the energy - chemical sector. The high volatility of crude oil continues, while the chemical industry is weaker due to the cooling of market sentiment [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors continue to drive oil prices, with high refinery开工 rates in China and the US providing support. However, supply pressure from OPEC+ is also present. The strong current situation driven by high refinery开工 and the weak expectation driven by supply pressure lead to oil price oscillations. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [9] - **Asphalt**: With rising oil prices, short - selling opportunities for asphalt emerge. The current asphalt price is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [10] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is regarded as weak. Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and geopolitical factors only cause short - term price fluctuations [10] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its price follows the weakening of crude oil. It faces factors such as falling shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel substitution, and is expected to maintain low - valuation fluctuations [12] - **PX**: The commodity sentiment has cooled, but the cost still provides some support. The overall supply - demand pattern has limited changes, and the inventory remains at a low level [14] - **PTA**: Some plants have short - term shutdowns, and the cost still has some support. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of major plant maintenance at the beginning of August [15] - **Pure Benzene**: There is no obvious driving force, and it oscillates in a narrow range. The fundamental situation has improved in the third quarter, but the rebound is restricted by inventory pressure [18] - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has cooled, and it oscillates in a narrow range. There is an expectation of weakening supply - demand, and port inventories are accumulating [19] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Typhoons have temporarily affected port inventory reduction. In the short term, the cost support has weakened, and supply pressure has increased. There is an expectation of inventory inflection [20] - **Short - Fiber**: The inventory has increased month - on - month. The price passively follows the raw materials, and downstream demand remains weak [22] - **Bottle - Chip**: It returns to the cost - pricing model. The price oscillates weakly following the decline of upstream raw materials [23] - **Methanol**: The port inventory is accumulating, and it oscillates in the short term. The production profit is still relatively high, and there is a negative feedback expectation in the downstream olefin sector [24] - **Urea**: The demand is generally weak, and the market is in a state of weak downward movement. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and the market is expected to oscillate or decline [25] - **Plastic**: The maintenance rate has decreased, and it oscillates. Oil prices oscillate in the short term, and the supply pressure is still present. The demand is in the off - season, and overseas factors need to be monitored [27] - **PP**: Attention should be paid to the Sino - US game, and it oscillates. Oil prices oscillate, the supply side has an incremental trend, and the demand side is weak. Overseas factors and Sino - US tariff games need to be monitored [29] - **PL**: It mainly follows the fluctuations, and may oscillate in the short term. The short - term capital game is significant, and the spot impact is limited [29] - **PVC**: The policy expectation has cooled, and it mainly oscillates. The market sentiment has cooled, the fundamental situation is under pressure, and the cost is expected to rise [32] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has been unexpectedly reduced, and it is under cautious pressure. The downstream demand has marginal changes, and the production is at a high level. The downward space is limited due to low inventory and cost support [32] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - term Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - term spread values and changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.8 with a change of 0.03, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is 26 with a change of - 18 [33] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, asphalt's basis is 126 with a change of - 9, and the number of warehouse receipts is 81140 [34] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: There are also corresponding cross - variety spread values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 335 with a change of 28 [35] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Not provided with specific summarized content in the given text, only variety names are listed such as methanol, urea, etc. [36][47]