原油日报 | 2026-02-26 合规油轮运力紧张推升运费，贸易流向或重塑 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所4月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌21美分，收于每桶65.42美元，跌幅为0.32%；4月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格上涨8美分，收于每桶70.85美元，涨幅为0.11%。SC原油主力合约收跌0.63%，报487元/桶。（来 源：Bloomberg） 2、2月25日，斯洛伐克总理菲佐25日表示，乌克兰总统泽连斯基一再推迟恢复"友谊"管道送油的做法是"敌对行为"。 乌克兰已多次更改恢复送油的日期，最新消息是，2月份不会恢复，可能在3月3日左右恢复。菲佐还表示，如果乌 克兰"完全无意提供斯洛伐克已经购买的石油"，斯方将采取进一步反制措施。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 2月26日，特朗普政府正在放宽对向古巴运输燃料的部分限制，允许将委内瑞拉石油转售给古巴的私营企业。 美国财政部周三发布的新指引强调，该措施适用于涉及古巴小型私营部门、用于"支持古巴人民"的商业及人道用 途交易。此前，古巴政府一直不允许数量不断增加的本地小型私营企业进口燃料。此次更新出台之际，古巴小企 业主正试图在特朗普政府批准下从 ...

今日A股市场上，截至收盘，招商轮船实现四天三板，中远海发、中远海能、招商南油等大涨。 消息面上，全球油轮运费飙升至近六年新高。克拉克森发布的春节假期间航运市场走势显示，油轮市场 持续强劲，VLCC（超大型油轮）型原油油轮即期市场平均日收益环比上涨24%，达到2020年4月以来的 最高水平。 随着全球原油的供应趋势变化，合规原油贸易份额需求的逐步增加，以及韩国长锦商船（Sinokor）发 起一场史无前例的超大型油轮收购，这些都将对VLCC市场产生显著影响。 油轮市场强劲开局 VLCC是载重吨20万至30万吨的大型原油运输船。 从事油轮租赁业务的业内相关人士向上海证券报记者表示，当前VLCC合规船的即期运费涨幅较大，日 租金约超17万美元/天。一年期期租租金创下新高，达到10万美元/天。苏伊士型油轮日租金大概在9.5万 美元/天。 "随着VLCC合规船越来越少，运力趋紧，油轮租金价格或将持续上行。"上述业内人士表示。 韩国船东大手笔收购搅动市场 韩国船东长锦商船近期通过购置二手船、租入等方式连续大手笔整合VLCC运力，对市场格局日益产生 显著影响。 VesselsValue数据显示，截至1月26日完成的45笔VL ...

今日A股市场上，截至收盘，招商轮船实现四天三板，中远海发、中远海能、招商南油等大涨。 消息面上，全球油轮运费飙升至近六年新高。克拉克森发布的春节假期间航运市场走势显示，油轮市场 持续强劲，VLCC（超大型油轮）型原油油轮即期市场平均日收益环比上涨24%，达到2020年4月以来的 最高水平。 随着全球原油的供应趋势变化，合规原油贸易份额需求的逐步增加，以及韩国长锦商船（Sinokor）发 起一场史无前例的超大型油轮收购，这些都将对VLCC市场产生显著影响。 油轮市场强劲开局 VLCC是载重吨20万至30万吨的大型原油运输船。 从事油轮租赁业务的业内相关人士向上海证券报记者表示，当前VLCC合规船的即期运费涨幅较大，日 租金约超17万美元/天。一年期期租租金创下新高，达到10万美元/天。苏伊士型油轮日租金大概在9.5万 美元/天。 "随着VLCC合规船越来越少，运力趋紧，油轮租金价格或将持续上行。"上述业内人士表示。 克拉克森发布的春节期间航运市场走势显示，VLCC型原油油轮即期市场平均日收益环比上涨24%，至 146385美元/天，达到2020年4月以来的最高水平。 居高不下的期租租金持续激励船东锁定远期租约。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The increase in geopolitical risks and a surge in regional crude oil supply are driving tanker freight rates to a nearly three-year high, while major energy agencies have significant disagreements regarding the oil supply-demand outlook for 2026 [1][4]. Group 1: Freight Rate Dynamics - The Baltic dirty tanker freight index has risen over 30% in the second half of 2025 and has increased by about one-third since the beginning of 2026, primarily due to the U.S. government's takeover of Venezuelan oil sales [1][2]. - The recent surge in freight rates is attributed to the increased demand for transporting Venezuelan crude oil to U.S. Gulf Coast and European refineries, with major trading firms actively reallocating vessels [1][2]. - The tightening of international sanctions on major oil-producing countries like Russia and Iran has led to a significant amount of crude oil being stored on floating vessels, further delaying the return of ships to the spot market and compressing effective supply [2]. Group 2: Divergence in Supply-Demand Forecasts - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a supply surplus exceeding 3.7 million barrels per day in 2026, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates a surplus of about 2 million barrels per day, and OPEC believes the market is nearing balance with a surplus of only 600,000 barrels per day [1][4][5]. - The core of the divergence among these agencies lies in their differing expectations for demand growth, complicating the already challenging task of predicting oil prices [1][6]. Group 3: Demand Growth Expectations - The IEA's forecast for daily demand in 2026 is slightly below 100.5 million barrels, which is about 1.5 million barrels lower than OPEC's estimate. This gap has narrowed since August 2022, with the IEA raising its forecast by 540,000 barrels over the past five months, while OPEC's outlook has remained unchanged [6][7]. - The IEA expects a daily consumption increase of 930,000 barrels in 2026, which is only about two-thirds of OPEC's predicted growth. The EIA's growth expectation falls between the two [6][7]. - Historical differences in demand growth rates are also evident, with OPEC analysts estimating an average annual growth rate of 1.3% since 2023, while the EIA's estimate is slightly lower at 1.2%, leading to an increasing gap in demand forecasts from 1.2 million barrels in 2023 to 1.7 million barrels in 2026 [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of China Ocean Shipping Energy (01138) has risen over 5%, reaching HKD 12.69, with a trading volume of HKD 140 million, driven by rising oil prices and increased demand for VLCCs due to geopolitical tensions [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - According to Clarkson, oil prices have surged significantly as geopolitical tensions escalate, with VLCC Middle East route WS increasing for several consecutive days, now at 88, leading to TCE exceeding USD 60,000 per day [1] - The report from Zhongyin Securities indicates that tensions in Iran have caused a rapid increase in risk premiums for the Strait of Hormuz, with VLCC daily earnings doubling to USD 68,000 in just one week [1] Group 2: Supply Chain and Demand - The sharp decline in Venezuelan oil exports has compelled Chinese buyers to shift their sourcing to the Middle East and Brazil for heavy crude oil, resulting in increased demand for long-haul shipping [1] - The short-term support for tanker freight rates is attributed to this increased demand, while future trends will depend on whether sanctions are lifted [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (中远海能) has risen over 5%, reaching HKD 12.69, driven by increasing oil prices and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - According to Clarkson, oil prices have surged significantly due to escalating tensions, with VLCC Middle East route WS rising continuously, now at 88, leading to TCE exceeding USD 60,000 per day [1] - Zhongyin Securities reported that the risk premium in the Strait of Hormuz has rapidly increased due to the tense situation in Iran, with VLCC daily earnings doubling to USD 68,000 in just one week [1] Group 2: Supply Chain Impacts - The sharp decline in Venezuelan oil exports has compelled Chinese buyers to shift their procurement towards heavy crude oil from the Middle East and Brazil, resulting in increased demand for long-haul shipping [1] - The short-term support for tanker freight rates is evident, but future trends will depend on whether sanctions are relaxed [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent seizure of a supertanker carrying approximately 1.85 million barrels of Venezuelan heavy crude oil by the U.S. military near Venezuela has implications for the oil shipping industry, particularly regarding compliance risks and potential shifts in oil supply sources [1]. Company Summary - COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (中远海能) saw its stock price increase by over 4%, reaching HKD 9.76, with a trading volume of HKD 82.71 million [1]. Industry Summary - The U.S. plans to enhance sanctions and impose "action measures" on vessels in international waters, raising alerts about the risks associated with non-compliant oil tanker transport [1]. - According to Clarkson Research, Venezuelan crude oil exports account for approximately 2% of global oil trade, and the global oil tanker market is expected to remain resilient through 2026 [1]. - The demand for global oil trade is projected to grow moderately by 2026, while the supply side is expected to see a significant loosening of the oil tanker fleet, which has experienced low growth this year [1]. - If Venezuelan oil shipments are disrupted, buyers may increase their procurement from compliant oil suppliers in the Middle East, leading to a rise in demand for compliant tankers and potentially driving up tanker freight rates in the short term [1].

Core Viewpoint - The recent seizure of a supertanker carrying approximately 1.85 million barrels of Venezuelan heavy crude oil by the U.S. military near Venezuela has implications for the oil shipping industry, particularly regarding compliance risks and potential shifts in oil supply chains [1]. Group 1: Company Impact - Zhongyuan Shipping (中远海能) saw its stock price increase by over 4%, reaching HKD 9.76, with a trading volume of HKD 82.71 million [1]. - The seizure of the oil tanker may lead to increased demand for compliant oil tankers, as buyers may shift their procurement to compliant suppliers in the Middle East due to disruptions in Venezuelan oil shipments [1]. Group 2: Industry Analysis - According to Clarkson Research, Venezuelan crude oil exports account for approximately 2% of global oil trade [1]. - The global oil tanker market is expected to remain resilient, with moderate growth in global oil trade demand projected for 2026, while the supply side is anticipated to see a significant loosening of the oil tanker fleet [1]. - Short-term disruptions in Venezuelan oil shipments could lead to a rise in transportation demand for compliant tankers, potentially driving up tanker freight rates [1].

Core Insights - Indian oil companies have announced a halt in purchasing Russian crude oil, indicating a trend of "de-Russification" in oil procurement. Similar moves are observed in China, which is also diversifying its sources of crude oil [2][4] - The freight rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have surged significantly due to increased demand from India and China for oil from other producing countries, amidst tightening sanctions on Russia by the U.S. [2][4] - As of November 13, the World Scale (WS) index for freight rates reached approximately 132, with charter rates rising to $125,000 per day, doubling from around 65 in late August [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The freight rates for VLCCs exceeded $100,000 for the first time since April 2020, driven by U.S. sanctions against major Russian oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, aimed at undermining Russia's military funding amid stalled ceasefire negotiations with Ukraine [4] - The demand for VLCCs has intensified as India increases its oil purchases from other countries, leading to a tight supply situation in the regular market for large oil tankers [4][5] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are also impacting shipping costs, with the U.S. imposing port fees on Chinese vessels since mid-October, prompting China to retaliate with similar measures [6] - A recent agreement between U.S. and Chinese leaders to postpone the port fee measures for a year may lead to increased U.S. crude exports to China, which could positively affect the tanker market despite potential price corrections [6] - The sentiment in the shipping market remains strong, with limited new VLCC orders expected, further tightening supply and maintaining high freight rates [6]