2025年二季度末，商业银行贷款损失准备余额为7.3万亿元，较上季末增加1269亿元；拨备覆盖率为 211.97%，较上季末上升3.84个百分点；贷款拨备率为3.16%，较上季末上升0.01个百分点。 近日，国家金融监督管理总局网站披露2025年二季度银行业要监管指标数据情况。2025年二季度末，我 国银行业金融机构本外币资产总额467.3万亿元，同比增长7.9%。其中，大型商业银行本外币资产总额 204.2万亿元，同比增长10.4%，占比43.7%；股份制商业银行本外币资产总额75.7万亿元，同比增长 5%，占比16.2%。 2025年二季度末，银行业金融机构普惠型小微企业贷款余额36万亿元，同比增长12.3%。普惠型涉农贷 款余额13.9万亿元，较年初增加1.1万亿元。 商业银行信贷资产质量总体稳定。2025年二季度末，商业银行（法人口径，下同）不良贷款余额3.4万 亿元，较上季末减少24亿元；商业银行不良贷款率1.49%，较上季末下降0.02个百分点。商业银行正常 贷款余额226.8万亿元，其中正常类贷款余额221.8万亿元，关注类贷款余额5万亿元。 商业银行风险抵补能力整体充足。2025年上半年，商业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery potential in the steel sector's profitability, driven by regulatory support for the industry and a gradual exit of outdated production capacity [4]. - The July PMI new export orders for China stood at 47.10%, indicating a slight decline, while the steel PMI new orders index reached a nine-month high [3][39]. - The liquidity indicators show a negative growth rate difference between M1 and M2, which may impact market dynamics [10][18]. Liquidity Analysis - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points [10][18]. - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for July 2025 was 46.09, down 6.16% from the previous month [10][18]. Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The steel PMI new orders index in July reached 51.9%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6.3 percentage points [39]. - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.24%, down 0.57 percentage points from the previous week [39]. Industrial Products Chain - The July PMI new orders index for industrial products was 49.40%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - Major commodity prices showed varied performance, with cold-rolled steel, copper, and aluminum prices declining by 0.19%, 1.43%, and 1.49% respectively [2]. Subsector Performance - The price of tungsten concentrate reached a new high since 2011, while graphite electrode prices remained stable at 18,000 CNY/ton [2]. - The average profit for electrolytic aluminum was 2,926 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 10.26% month-on-month [2]. Price Comparison - The price ratio between medium-thick plates and rebar is at a relatively high level, with the rebar price at 3,350 CNY/ton, down 2.90% [3][39]. - The price difference between small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) was 150 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [3]. Export Chain - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates was 1,232.29 points, down 2.30% from the previous week [3]. - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate was 78.40%, an increase of 0.40 percentage points [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report notes that the PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.57, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4]. - The overall steel industry gross profit was reported at 305 CNY/ton, down 18.6% week-on-week [9].

Core Insights - The total assets of China's banking and insurance sectors continued to grow in Q1 2025, indicating a stable financial environment and enhanced financial service capabilities [1][2] Banking Sector Performance - As of the end of Q1 2025, the total assets of banking institutions reached 458.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [2] - Large commercial banks accounted for 198.5 trillion yuan, growing by 7.3%, representing 43.3% of the total assets [2] - The balance of inclusive loans to small and micro enterprises was 35.3 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.5% [2] Insurance Sector Performance - The total assets of insurance institutions (excluding specialized insurance intermediaries) reached 37.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.9 trillion yuan or 5.4% from the beginning of the year [2] - The original insurance premium income for insurance companies was 2.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.8% [3] Asset Quality and Risk Management - The non-performing loan balance for commercial banks was 3.4 trillion yuan, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.51%, slightly up by 0.01 percentage points [4] - The average capital return rate for commercial banks was 8.82%, increasing by 0.72 percentage points [4] - The capital adequacy ratio for commercial banks stood at 15.28% as of the end of Q1 2025 [5] Liquidity and Solvency - The liquidity coverage ratio for commercial banks was 146.20%, down by 4.63 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio for insurance companies was 204.5%, indicating sufficient solvency [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5]. Core Insights - The national steel PMI new orders index for April reached 51%, marking a 9.9 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a recovery in demand [1][42]. - The financing environment index for small and medium enterprises in April 2025 was 48.03, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 7.24%, suggesting tightening liquidity conditions [11][19]. - The report highlights that the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels due to regulatory changes and improved demand dynamics [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprises financing environment index for April 2025 is 48.03, down 7.24% month-on-month [11]. - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -5.4 percentage points in March 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.5 percentage points [19]. Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The national steel PMI new orders index for April was 51%, up 9.9 percentage points from the previous month [1][42]. - The average capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces was 92% in the latest week, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point increase [42]. Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires was 72.43%, down 5.68 percentage points from the previous week [2]. - The prices of major commodities showed mixed results, with cold-rolled steel prices increasing by 0.26% [2]. Sub-sectors - The price of tungsten concentrate reached a nearly 10-month high, indicating strong demand in niche markets [2]. - The price of graphite electrodes remained stable at 18,000 yuan/ton, with a profit margin of 1,357.4 yuan/ton, reflecting an 8.25% increase [2]. Price Relationships - The price spread between hot-rolled and rebar steel is at a low level not seen in the past five months, indicating potential pricing pressures [3]. - The new export orders PMI for China in April was 44.70%, down 4.3 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting weakening export demand [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report notes that the PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.52, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4]. - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.43% in the latest week, while the steel sector showed a slight increase of 0.13% [4].