A股三大股指集体高开，沪指涨0.46%，创业板指涨0.84%。盘面上，脑机接口、商业航天、存储芯片板 块涨幅居前，人形机器人、免税概念、海南自贸板块跌幅靠前。 机构看后市 中信建投：为什么继续看好跨年行情? 中信建投认为，A股跨年行情如期展开，今年元旦市场面临的流动性环境和汇率环境明显好于前两年， 多重利好推动港股大涨，A股有望迎来开门红行情。行业主要围绕半导体、AI和未来产业热点展开。行 业重点关注：半导体、AI、非银、新能源，机械设备;中长期看好：有色(工业金属、小金属)、创新药 等;主题重点关注：商业航天、核电、人形机器人、海南(免税)。 中国银河表示，节后来看，假期期间港股市场与人民币汇率走强表现有助于提振投资者信心，A股市场 或将延续结构性行情。后续上行节奏还要观察政策预期与产业趋势突破，在上述因素支撑下，春季躁动 行情可能提前开启。同时，仍需关注海外地缘风险等不确定性因素的短期扰动。展望2026年，"十五 五"开局之年改革政策预期强化，人民币汇率向上等价格因素支撑流动性向好，市场信心有望得到提 振。关注盈利修复逻辑下，具备业绩兑现能力的科技龙头、受益于价格水平回暖预期的周期板块。 华安证券：A股" ...

智通财经APP获悉，中信建投证券发布研究报告称，A股跨年行情如期展开，今年元旦市场面临的流动 性环境和汇率环境明显好于前两年，多重利好推动港股大涨，A股有望迎来开门红行情。行业主要围绕 半导体、AI和未来产业热点展开。行业重点关注：半导体、AI、非银、新能源，机械设备；中长期看 好：有色(工业金属、小金属)、创新药等；主题重点关注：商业航天、核电、人形机器人、海南(免 税)。 跨年行情如期展开 美国突袭委内瑞拉对市场有何影响?从短期看，我们认为作为2026年第一场战争，地缘政治的紧张将导 致黄金和原油价格阶段性上涨，避险资金则推动美元走强，由于未发展为大规模战争，整体影响预计有 限。中长期看美国有望在美洲建立一个强大的油气供应极，对国际油价形成长期利空。中国占委内瑞拉 原油出口的80%，目前委内瑞拉国内权力交接前景仍不明朗，对委内瑞拉重质原油的依赖较高的沥青和 燃料油两大化工产品面临原材料来源不稳定的风险，可能推升相关产品价格。受影响的加工企业以山东 独立炼厂为主，部分具备重质原油加工能力的民营炼化一体化企业也会受到干扰。 期货保证金上调，贵金属正在迎来多空对决，尤其是对于杠杆交易较多，市场规模远小于黄金的白 ...

随着12月18日海南自贸港正式启动，全岛封关运作，海南相关概念股持续走高。 海南机场、神农种业、海峡股份等接连涨停，海南发展更是收获四连板，9月以来，海南发展股价已然翻倍。 而封关的优势已然显现，封关当日，三亚的免税消费就爆炸式增长。 18日封关首日，海南离岛免税购物金额达1.61亿元，购物人数2.48万人次，分别同比暴涨61%和53.1%。 在此热潮下，连跌四年的中国中免，也一度迎来涨停。自今年6月以来，中免已然上涨50%，股价达到近两年新高。 但封关之后，中国中免真的能就此起飞吗？ 01 作为免税消费的桥头堡，早在11月1日，海南早已率先实施离岛免税购物新政，新增2个商品大类和优化调整3个商品细类， 允许6类国内商品在离岛免税店销售。 此后一个月，海南离岛免税购物金额23.8亿元，同比增长27.1%。 而封关运作，又给海南免税行业带来更为直接的利好。 封关后，海南"零关税"的商品清单从1900多项大幅增加到6637项，基本涵盖主要生产设备和原材料。 对于旅客而言，封关后的免税商品品类从45大类商品增加至47大类，新增了宠物用品和可随身携带的乐器两大类。 不仅如此，海南省商务厅还联合中国银联推出"购在海南" ...

格隆汇12月24日丨金达威(002626.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，公司旗下品牌Doctor's Best有通过海南免 税品渠道销售产品。 ...

Summary of Hainan Duty-Free Market Update and Policy Analysis Industry Overview - The Hainan duty-free market is showing positive growth in 2025, with pure duty-free sales achieving positive growth since September, with an increase of 35-40% in November, driven by new policies and effective promotions such as coupon activities for local residents [1][4][3]. Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance by Category - **Mobile Phones**: The mobile phone category has seen significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of over 100%, accounting for approximately 13% of total sales. This growth is attributed to the "old for new" policy for consumer goods, although the profit margin is relatively low. The average transaction value increased by 35% year-on-year in November [1][2][3]. - **Cosmetics**: Remains the largest category but has decreased to around 30% of total sales. Jewelry is the second-largest category, with a 7% year-on-year increase, now accounting for 11% of sales, particularly boosted by new gold policies [2][15]. - **Clothing and Bags**: Both categories maintain a steady growth rate, each accounting for about 10% of total sales since the relaxation of institutional procurement policies in 2023 [2]. - **Watches**: Sales have declined by approximately 20% year-on-year [2]. Policy Impacts - New policies allowing outbound travelers to purchase duty-free items and gradually opening up collective purchases for local residents have not shown significant risks initially. Various duty-free entities are using coupons to enhance policy awareness and stimulate consumer purchasing intent [1][4]. - The introduction of six categories of domestic products into duty-free shops is expected to create new retail opportunities, although the current tax exemption does not significantly affect price differences [7][8]. Future Outlook - The mobile phone category is expected to face supply constraints in 2024, but sufficient inventory is anticipated for 2025, despite restrictions on purchases. Consumers can enjoy a 15% discount through the "old for new" and coupon policies, making new models more attractive [5]. - New categories such as pet supplies and musical instruments have been introduced, but their impact on overall sales is limited. The optimization of home appliances, photography equipment, and drones faces challenges due to online shopping habits and logistics costs [6]. - The potential introduction of an island-wide duty-free policy in early 2026 is anticipated, focusing on daily consumer goods for Hainan residents, which is expected to have minimal impact on existing outbound duty-free sales [10][11]. Market Dynamics - The overall market has shown a recovery, with a notable increase in sales from September onwards, with November showing a growth rate of 35-40% due to new policy stimuli [3][4]. - The average transaction value has increased significantly, indicating a shift towards higher-value purchases among consumers [16]. Regulatory Considerations - Regulatory measures are being implemented to monitor purchasing behaviors, especially concerning reselling and bulk buying through duty-free channels. Data models are used to track unusual purchasing patterns [20][21]. Additional Important Insights - The impact of weather on sales during peak shopping periods has been noted, with specific events leading to increased foot traffic in stores [13]. - The discounting strategies in duty-free shops have remained consistent with previous years, with various promotional methods enhancing the overall discounting effect [14]. - The introduction of domestic clothing into the duty-free market is expected to increase market share, with projections indicating growth beyond 10% in the clothing and accessories category [18]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the evolving dynamics of the Hainan duty-free market, driven by policy changes, consumer behavior, and category performance.