21世纪经济报道记者孙燕 无锡报道 在全球两轮电动车产业中，中国是最大的生产国、消费国和出口国。其中，三分之一的两轮电动车产量，都来自无锡市锡山 区。 作为"中国电动车之乡"，锡山区的两轮电动车产业自2000年初起步，至2024年集群营业收入规模已达到667.6亿元。 其间，出海扮演了重要的增量角色。2024年，锡山电动车企业全年完成跨境电商进出口6.1亿元，占电动车外贸总出口的七分之 一。 从2020年锡山区两轮电动车整车出口额首次破1亿美元，到2025年上半年锡山区两轮电动车整车出口额达1.9亿美元、同比增长 19.5%，电动两轮车何以从锡山走向世界？ 出海风起 2020年后，中国两轮电动车企业进入快速出海阶段。在锡山区，两轮电动车产业的"链主"企业——雅迪电动车，于2021年正式 启动大规模出海战略。 雅迪科技集团执行董事沈瑜回忆道，两轮电动车行业原来大部分都在国内发展。但最近几年，一方面国内市场逐渐饱和，另一 方面国内电动车监管政策趋严，不少城市限制电动摩托车上牌、上路。因此，两轮电动车企业逐渐将产能向国外转移。 "我们现在从购车、金融、租赁、服务，到充电系统、换电系统以及二手车交易链，都在建立体系， ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant impact of the U.S. government's decision to eliminate the $800 tax exemption on imported packages, leading to a drastic reduction in cross-border e-commerce and severe disruptions in the global postal network [1][3] - The new policy has resulted in 81% fewer packages being sent to the U.S. since its implementation, causing 88 global postal operators to suspend or limit their services to the U.S. [1][3] - The policy change is seen as a major shift in U.S. trade policy, previously allowing tax-free entry for packages under $800, which the government now views as a "trade loophole" [3] Group 2 - Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that rely on low-cost cross-border goods are facing a survival crisis, with some reporting order interruption rates as high as 60% [5][7] - Analysts estimate that SMEs could face over $71 billion in increased costs due to the new policy, with the average package value around $48, significantly impacting their already thin profit margins [7] - Business owners are left with difficult choices: absorb the costs or pass them on to consumers, leading to potential price increases [7] Group 3 - U.S. consumers, particularly low-income families, are indirectly affected by the policy change, experiencing price increases of up to 50% on essential goods [8][10] - The time for customs clearance has increased from 1-2 days to over a week, causing families to stockpile low-cost essentials, exacerbating supply shortages [10] Group 4 - The global logistics chain is severely disrupted, with European postal warehouses experiencing significant backlogs, such as Spain's daily accumulation of 30,000 packages [10][15] - Major logistics companies like DHL and La Poste have suspended commercial package services, leading to a breakdown in the global supply chain [10][15] Group 5 - The Universal Postal Union has launched a cost calculator API to help postal services estimate tariffs, but many countries are still suspending services due to unclear tax details from the U.S. [12][14] - The overseas warehouse model is emerging as a more effective solution, allowing goods to be shipped in bulk to the U.S. to avoid cross-border tariffs and reduce logistics time [12][14] - The global trade landscape is changing, with increasing interest in markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, as companies adapt to the new trade environment [15]

Core Insights - Chinese companies are shifting focus from the US market to the more complex and compliance-heavy European market, presenting both opportunities and challenges [1][4] - The growth rate of Chinese companies in the European market is significantly higher than in the US, with some companies reporting over 20% monthly growth in Europe [1][2] Market Trends - eBay's data shows that sales of Chinese automotive parts in Germany and the UK have seen substantial increases, with headlight assemblies growing over 300% and tail light assemblies increasing by 900% in the UK [2] - The European automotive aftermarket is projected to reach hundreds of billions of euros in online sales by 2024, with an annual growth rate exceeding 15% [2] Competitive Landscape - Chinese automotive parts manufacturers have improved their competitiveness, with no significant quality gap compared to European brands, allowing for potential market share gains [3][5] - The shift to overseas warehouses for exporting large automotive parts has mitigated some impacts of US tariff changes, allowing for continued growth in cross-border e-commerce [3][5] Regulatory Challenges - The European market presents higher barriers to entry, including new regulations that may increase costs for Chinese exporters, such as the planned removal of tax exemptions for low-value imports [4][5] - Companies must adapt to local market conditions and compliance requirements, necessitating a focus on data collection and localized strategies [5] Pricing Dynamics - The uncertainty of tariffs has led to increased shipping costs, prompting companies to adjust prices dynamically to maintain profit margins [6] - Data indicates that prices for Chinese products on US platforms have risen faster than the overall inflation rate, reflecting the impact of tariffs on consumer prices [6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The cancellation of the low-value small package tax exemption by the U.S. is a strategic move to counter the competitive advantage of Chinese cross-border e-commerce, which has disrupted the U.S. market by offering lower prices through efficient supply chains [7][8][20] - The impact of the new tax policy is significant, with over 80% of low-value packages being affected, leading to an estimated 90% impact on cross-border e-commerce volume between China and the U.S. [10][45] - The future advantage of overseas warehouse models over air express delivery is highlighted, as increased taxes eliminate the cost benefits previously enjoyed by direct shipping methods [11][63] Summary by Sections 1. Core Logic Behind the Cancellation of the Low-Value Small Package Tax Exemption - The U.S. aims to create barriers in customs clearance and last-mile delivery to counter the influence of Chinese cross-border e-commerce [7][20] - The U.S. has faced challenges in implementing these barriers due to countermeasures from Canada and Mexico, as well as system failures [8][31] 2. Impact on Cross-Border E-Commerce Shipping Volume - The number of low-value small packages imported into the U.S. has surged, with over 1 billion declarations in 2023 compared to 153 million in 2015 [10][44] - The average additional tax cost per package is estimated at $18, with a significant decline in customs clearance efficiency for about 70% of packages [10][49] 3. Advantages of Overseas Warehouse Models Over Air Express Delivery - The cost of air freight for low-value packages has increased significantly due to new taxes, making overseas warehouses a more viable option [11][63] - It is projected that air freight demand for cross-border e-commerce will decline by over 20% by 2025, while demand for overseas warehouse orders will increase by 8% [11][56] 4. Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with strong cash flow and the ability to adapt to changing supply chain strategies, particularly those with resources in North America [13]

Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of the $800 de minimis exemption policy by the U.S. is expected to significantly impact cross-border e-commerce, leading to increased costs for sellers and potential market exits for smaller businesses [1][2][6]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Impacts - The U.S. officially terminated the $800 de minimis exemption on May 2, 2024, which previously allowed low-value goods from China to enter the U.S. without tariffs [1][4]. - This policy change is projected to result in annual losses of up to $47 billion for businesses and consumers, disproportionately affecting low-income groups [1][2]. - The new regulations require that packages valued under $800 must now pay a tariff of 120% or $100 per item, significantly increasing costs for sellers who previously enjoyed zero tariffs [6][10]. Group 2: Seller and Platform Responses - In response to the increased costs, sellers and platforms are considering price hikes, with some already implementing increases of around 30% on various products [8][10]. - Many sellers are pausing shipments to the U.S. to reassess their strategies, with reports indicating that logistics costs have risen to levels exceeding product prices [1][3]. - Platforms like Temu and SHEIN are shifting towards a "semi-managed" model, emphasizing the need for overseas warehousing to maintain competitiveness [9][10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The cancellation of the exemption is expected to accelerate market consolidation, favoring larger sellers with robust supply chains while putting smaller sellers at risk of exiting the market [10]. - The industry is likely to transition from a direct shipping model to a "sea freight + overseas warehouse" model, which may lead to a more globalized warehousing network [10]. - The long-term implications suggest a shift from price competition to value competition, with an emphasis on branding and compliance becoming critical for survival [10].