Core Insights - Chinese companies are shifting focus from the US market to the more complex and compliance-heavy European market, presenting both opportunities and challenges [1][4] - The growth rate of Chinese companies in the European market is significantly higher than in the US, with some companies reporting over 20% monthly growth in Europe [1][2] Market Trends - eBay's data shows that sales of Chinese automotive parts in Germany and the UK have seen substantial increases, with headlight assemblies growing over 300% and tail light assemblies increasing by 900% in the UK [2] - The European automotive aftermarket is projected to reach hundreds of billions of euros in online sales by 2024, with an annual growth rate exceeding 15% [2] Competitive Landscape - Chinese automotive parts manufacturers have improved their competitiveness, with no significant quality gap compared to European brands, allowing for potential market share gains [3][5] - The shift to overseas warehouses for exporting large automotive parts has mitigated some impacts of US tariff changes, allowing for continued growth in cross-border e-commerce [3][5] Regulatory Challenges - The European market presents higher barriers to entry, including new regulations that may increase costs for Chinese exporters, such as the planned removal of tax exemptions for low-value imports [4][5] - Companies must adapt to local market conditions and compliance requirements, necessitating a focus on data collection and localized strategies [5] Pricing Dynamics - The uncertainty of tariffs has led to increased shipping costs, prompting companies to adjust prices dynamically to maintain profit margins [6] - Data indicates that prices for Chinese products on US platforms have risen faster than the overall inflation rate, reflecting the impact of tariffs on consumer prices [6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The cancellation of the low-value small package tax exemption by the U.S. is a strategic move to counter the competitive advantage of Chinese cross-border e-commerce, which has disrupted the U.S. market by offering lower prices through efficient supply chains [7][8][20] - The impact of the new tax policy is significant, with over 80% of low-value packages being affected, leading to an estimated 90% impact on cross-border e-commerce volume between China and the U.S. [10][45] - The future advantage of overseas warehouse models over air express delivery is highlighted, as increased taxes eliminate the cost benefits previously enjoyed by direct shipping methods [11][63] Summary by Sections 1. Core Logic Behind the Cancellation of the Low-Value Small Package Tax Exemption - The U.S. aims to create barriers in customs clearance and last-mile delivery to counter the influence of Chinese cross-border e-commerce [7][20] - The U.S. has faced challenges in implementing these barriers due to countermeasures from Canada and Mexico, as well as system failures [8][31] 2. Impact on Cross-Border E-Commerce Shipping Volume - The number of low-value small packages imported into the U.S. has surged, with over 1 billion declarations in 2023 compared to 153 million in 2015 [10][44] - The average additional tax cost per package is estimated at $18, with a significant decline in customs clearance efficiency for about 70% of packages [10][49] 3. Advantages of Overseas Warehouse Models Over Air Express Delivery - The cost of air freight for low-value packages has increased significantly due to new taxes, making overseas warehouses a more viable option [11][63] - It is projected that air freight demand for cross-border e-commerce will decline by over 20% by 2025, while demand for overseas warehouse orders will increase by 8% [11][56] 4. Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with strong cash flow and the ability to adapt to changing supply chain strategies, particularly those with resources in North America [13]

Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of the $800 de minimis exemption policy by the U.S. is expected to significantly impact cross-border e-commerce, leading to increased costs for sellers and potential market exits for smaller businesses [1][2][6]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Impacts - The U.S. officially terminated the $800 de minimis exemption on May 2, 2024, which previously allowed low-value goods from China to enter the U.S. without tariffs [1][4]. - This policy change is projected to result in annual losses of up to $47 billion for businesses and consumers, disproportionately affecting low-income groups [1][2]. - The new regulations require that packages valued under $800 must now pay a tariff of 120% or $100 per item, significantly increasing costs for sellers who previously enjoyed zero tariffs [6][10]. Group 2: Seller and Platform Responses - In response to the increased costs, sellers and platforms are considering price hikes, with some already implementing increases of around 30% on various products [8][10]. - Many sellers are pausing shipments to the U.S. to reassess their strategies, with reports indicating that logistics costs have risen to levels exceeding product prices [1][3]. - Platforms like Temu and SHEIN are shifting towards a "semi-managed" model, emphasizing the need for overseas warehousing to maintain competitiveness [9][10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The cancellation of the exemption is expected to accelerate market consolidation, favoring larger sellers with robust supply chains while putting smaller sellers at risk of exiting the market [10]. - The industry is likely to transition from a direct shipping model to a "sea freight + overseas warehouse" model, which may lead to a more globalized warehousing network [10]. - The long-term implications suggest a shift from price competition to value competition, with an emphasis on branding and compliance becoming critical for survival [10].