Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of the $800 de minimis exemption policy by the U.S. has significantly impacted cross-border e-commerce, leading to increased costs and operational challenges for Chinese sellers and platforms, prompting a reevaluation of business models and logistics strategies [2][3][14]. Cost Increase and Efficiency Decline - The $800 de minimis exemption, which simplified customs processes for low-value goods, has been a major driver of cross-border e-commerce growth, particularly benefiting Chinese small sellers [5][6]. - The cancellation of this policy means that all packages valued under $800 will now incur a duty of 120% of their value or a flat fee of $100, leading to a substantial increase in costs for sellers who previously enjoyed zero tariffs [7][9]. - The number of low-value packages processed by U.S. Customs has increased dramatically, from 139 million in 2015 to over 1.3 billion in 2024, highlighting the significance of the de minimis policy for cross-border trade [6]. Industry Restructuring - The policy change is expected to accelerate market consolidation, favoring larger sellers with robust supply chains who can absorb the new costs, while smaller sellers face greater survival pressures [13][14]. - Many sellers have already paused shipments to the U.S. or are considering exiting the market due to the increased logistics costs and uncertainties [2][9]. Strategic Responses - In response to the new costs, some sellers and platforms have opted to raise prices, with average price increases reported at around 30% for various product categories on platforms like Amazon [9][10]. - The shift towards overseas warehouses is anticipated, as sellers look to mitigate costs and improve delivery times, although this requires significant upfront investment and carries inventory risks [10][11][12]. - The transition to overseas warehouses may become a mainstream strategy, with platforms like Temu and SHEIN already pushing for a "semi-managed" model to enhance inventory management and fulfillment capabilities [10][14]. Long-term Implications - The cancellation of the de minimis exemption is seen as a step towards a more mature and regulated phase of cross-border e-commerce, with a potential shift from price competition to value competition, emphasizing branding and compliance as core competitive advantages [14].

Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of the $800 de minimis exemption policy by the U.S. is expected to significantly impact cross-border e-commerce, leading to increased costs for sellers and potential market exits for smaller businesses [1][2][6]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Impacts - The U.S. officially terminated the $800 de minimis exemption on May 2, 2024, which previously allowed low-value goods from China to enter the U.S. without tariffs [1][4]. - This policy change is projected to result in annual losses of up to $47 billion for businesses and consumers, disproportionately affecting low-income groups [1][2]. - The new regulations require that packages valued under $800 must now pay a tariff of 120% or $100 per item, significantly increasing costs for sellers who previously enjoyed zero tariffs [6][10]. Group 2: Seller and Platform Responses - In response to the increased costs, sellers and platforms are considering price hikes, with some already implementing increases of around 30% on various products [8][10]. - Many sellers are pausing shipments to the U.S. to reassess their strategies, with reports indicating that logistics costs have risen to levels exceeding product prices [1][3]. - Platforms like Temu and SHEIN are shifting towards a "semi-managed" model, emphasizing the need for overseas warehousing to maintain competitiveness [9][10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The cancellation of the exemption is expected to accelerate market consolidation, favoring larger sellers with robust supply chains while putting smaller sellers at risk of exiting the market [10]. - The industry is likely to transition from a direct shipping model to a "sea freight + overseas warehouse" model, which may lead to a more globalized warehousing network [10]. - The long-term implications suggest a shift from price competition to value competition, with an emphasis on branding and compliance becoming critical for survival [10].

Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of the $800 de minimis exemption by the U.S. has significantly impacted the cross-border e-commerce landscape, forcing sellers to reassess their business models and logistics strategies [1][3][10] Group 1: Policy Changes and Impact - The U.S. officially terminated the $800 de minimis exemption on May 2, 2024, which previously allowed low-value goods from China to enter the U.S. without tariffs [1][3] - This policy change is expected to lead to increased logistics costs and longer delivery times for cross-border e-commerce, prompting sellers to either raise prices, shift to overseas warehouses, or explore markets outside the U.S. [1][6][10] - The number of low-value packages processed by U.S. Customs surged from 1.39 million in 2015 to over 1.3 billion in 2024, highlighting the significance of the de minimis policy for cross-border trade [3] Group 2: Seller Responses and Market Dynamics - Many sellers, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises, are pausing shipments to the U.S. due to increased costs, with some opting to refund unshipped orders [1][4] - Major platforms like Temu and SHEIN have announced price increases averaging 30% across various product categories due to rising operational costs [6] - The cancellation of the de minimis exemption is likely to accelerate market consolidation, favoring larger sellers with robust supply chains while putting smaller sellers under significant pressure [9][10] Group 3: Future Trends and Strategies - The shift towards overseas warehouses is anticipated as sellers seek to maintain market presence in the U.S. despite increased costs [7][10] - The transition to overseas warehouses requires upfront investment and poses risks related to inventory management, which may be challenging for smaller sellers [8][9] - The industry is expected to evolve towards a more mature and regulated phase, with a potential shift from price competition to value competition, emphasizing brand and compliance as core competitive advantages [10]