来源：市场资讯 （来源：华泰证券策略研究） 在经历一个月的悲观区间盘整后，港股情绪指数上周五正式落入恐慌区间。历史上进入该区间后未来1 月上涨概率大幅提升。除此之外，当前市场面临海外流动性宽松预期升温、资金面流入再加速、盈利预 期上修的三因素共振，且AH情绪比较再度进入港股悲观、A股乐观的极端值。后续港股或重演追涨行 情，从11月底的布局期逐渐进入收获期。 情绪突破"恐慌"区间，布局性价比大幅上行 2023年底以来进入"恐慌区间"布局港股未来1个月胜率100%。2026年1月9日，港股情绪指数回落至 28.6，时隔四个月再次落入恐慌区间（<30）。2020年至今情绪指数共21次落入恐慌区间，首次进入30 天后恒指平均上涨概率76%，平均/中位数上涨幅度均为3%；2023年10月底至今的七次信号胜率更是达 到100%，平均恒指上涨幅度4%。若完全参考2023年以来经验，恒指未来1个月在27000点以上，但目前 期权市场隐含恒指在1月底、2月底上涨到27000点的概率仅为25%、39%，存在正向预期差。 流动性、资金面和盈利预期等多因素共振上行 交易拥挤度视角下，食品饮料、公用事业、汽车、银行、消费者服务拥挤度较 ...

12月12日，沪深两市震荡调整，有色金属、食品饮料板块涨幅居前。截至10点，有色金属 ETF(512400.SH)涨1.14%，中金黄金涨3.49%。 国元证券分析指出：工业金属方面，铜铝供需矛盾凸显，短期主产区扰动及长期资本开支不足抑制供给 释放，新能源、基建等需求韧性支撑价格中枢上行；贵金属方面，美联储降息预期升温叠加地缘政治风 险催化，白银受益于金融属性与工业需求（光伏、电子）双重驱动，供需缺口扩大使其弹性优于黄金。 稀土及新能源金属方面，国内产业政策扶持叠加下游新能源车、储能等高景气赛道拉动，镨钕、碳酸锂 等价格企稳回升，中长期成长空间明确。综合来看，海外流动性宽松预期及国内经济复苏共振，行 业"资源稀缺性+需求成长性"逻辑强化，涵盖工业金属、贵金属及新能源材料的有色金属 ETF(512400.SH)有望持续受益于板块景气度提升，配置价值显著。 昨日凌晨，美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 3.50%–3.75%。这是美联储继9月17日、10月29日降息后年内的第三次降息，幅度均为25个基点。会议 声明指出经济温和扩张，就业增长放缓、失业率小幅上升，通胀 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of risk assets, particularly in the metals sector, has been strong during the National Day holiday, driven by expectations of overseas liquidity easing and supply concerns in the tin market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - During the holiday, LME tin prices rose by 2.95%, while domestic Shanghai tin futures increased by 2.99%, reaching a six-month high of 287,090 yuan/ton [1]. - The tightening supply of tin, exacerbated by Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining, has contributed to the upward price movement [1]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Indonesia's strict enforcement against illegal mining is aimed at better controlling its tin industry, with the closure of many small illegal mining operations. Major tin smelting companies in Indonesia are expected to remain unaffected due to their stable supply channels [1]. - The Indonesian Tin Exporters Association (ITEA) projects that refined tin exports will rise from 45,000 tons in 2024 to approximately 53,000 tons, indicating that the recent regulatory actions will not significantly impact exports [1]. Group 3: Domestic Supply and Demand - Domestic tin production is set to resume as Yunnan Tin ends maintenance, and most smelting plants maintained normal operations during the holiday. Additionally, transportation of tin from Myanmar is gradually recovering, suggesting a slight increase in overall supply [1]. - Post-holiday, the operating rate of downstream tin processing enterprises is expected to remain stable, although colder weather and lower-than-usual Christmas order volumes may keep the operating rates steady in the fourth quarter [1]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The expectation of high interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is favorable for risk assets, while new regulations in Indonesia to shorten mining quota validity from three years to one year will effectively control tin supply [2]. - The LME inventory has decreased again, and fluctuations in the 0-3 structure indicate ongoing liquidity concerns, which may further stimulate tin prices [2].

Group 1 - During the National Day holiday, overseas liquidity easing expectations boosted risk assets, with copper prices reaching around $108,000, the highest since May 2022 [1] - The U.S. government shutdown has led to a decline in ADP employment data, with a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, raising expectations for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - Chile's copper production fell by 9.9% year-on-year in August, marking the largest decline in over two years, primarily due to an accident at Codelco's El Teniente mine [1] Group 2 - Global copper mine vulnerabilities have been increasingly exposed this year, complicating negotiations between domestic smelters and overseas miners, leading to concerns about supply tightness [2] - Freeport's Grasberg mine in Indonesia faced force majeure, further escalating supply concerns and contributing to rising copper prices [2] - LME copper inventory has slightly decreased, while COMEX copper inventory has accumulated to over 330,000 tons, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [2]