以下文章来源于叶檀财经 ，作者半间云 叶檀财经 . 过去的财经女侠叶檀，现在的檀姐姐，手中无剑，心中有爱。 本文来自微信公众号： 叶檀财经 ，作者：半间云，题图来自：视觉中国 前两天去阳澄湖边吃大闸蟹，螃蟹肥美，人却不多，朋友说这两年消费不如往年，往年秋风吹凉湖 水，湖边早已人流如织。 有一些让人迷惑的问题，全球印了那么多货币，我们的广义货币发行量这么高，为什么很多人还是觉 得手头紧，消费不振，全球产能过剩？ 一、中年人的莲子生活，外面鲜 甜里面苦 消费水平的高低，主要跟收入有关。 收入虽然还在上升，但增速在下降。2013年，个人可支配收入为2.7万元人民币，2014年为2.88万元 人民币，增速约为6.67%；2023年为5.18万元人民币，2024年为5.42万元人民币，增速约为4.6%。 根据国家统计局数据，2012年，居民人均可支配收入达到16510元，扣除物价因素比1978年实际增长 15.6倍，1979～2012年年均实际增长8.6%。 8月20号，国信证券王剑发表了一篇文章《存款搬家如何演绎》，里面有一张图明确显示，城镇居民 可支配收入和支出的增速相关性极强，可支配收入的增速上升了，居民的消费也 ...

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao, a prominent player in the liquor industry, has shown signs of slowing growth since last year, leading to a decline in both revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, indicating potential challenges ahead for the company [4][8]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In the first half of 2025, Luzhou Laojiao reported revenue of 16.454 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.67% year-on-year, and a net profit of 7.663 billion yuan, down 4.54% [11]. - The company's revenue growth target for 2024 was set at 15%, but it only achieved a growth of 3.19%, indicating a significant shortfall [11]. - The company has not set specific revenue targets for 2025, instead opting for a vague goal of "steady progress," which reflects the current market uncertainties [11][13]. Market Position and Competitiveness - Luzhou Laojiao's revenue decline is relatively moderate compared to other liquor companies, ranking seventh in revenue decline among 20 listed liquor firms [13]. - The company’s performance in the second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue drop of 7.97%, placing it eighth among its peers [13]. - The overall liquor industry has been experiencing a downturn since last year, with many companies, including Luzhou Laojiao, facing challenges unrelated to any specific regulations [17]. Profitability Trends - Luzhou Laojiao's gross profit margin has been on an upward trend over the past decade, reaching 88.57% in the first half of 2024, but this trend has started to decline since last year [21][23]. - The company's net profit margin has also seen a consecutive decline over the past two years [23]. Inventory and Cash Flow - Despite a decline in revenue, Luzhou Laojiao's contract liabilities have increased, indicating a stable level of prepayments from distributors, with balances rising from 1.934 billion yuan in 2020 to 3.529 billion yuan in 2025 [26][30]. - However, the company's inventory has surged from 3.8 billion yuan in mid-2020 to 13.785 billion yuan in mid-2025, raising concerns about potential overstock issues [30]. - The inventory turnover days have reached 1,152 days, suggesting inefficiencies in inventory management [32]. Sales and Market Strategy - In the first half of 2025, Luzhou Laojiao's mid-to-high-end liquor revenue was 15.048 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.09%, while sales volume increased by 13.33% [39]. - The company is adopting a strategy of increasing sales volume at the expense of price, which has negatively impacted its product pricing and gross margins [39]. - Luzhou Laojiao is focusing on product innovation and expanding its market presence, particularly in the competitive mid-range liquor segment, to enhance its competitiveness [41].