他说，" 大概率 ， 2025 年 是 改革开放 以来 ， 中国 第二次 出现 投资负增长 。" 居民消费仍在艰难回升中。 2025 年前三季度，全国居民人均消费支出同比增长 4.6% ，扣除价格 因素影响，实际增长 4.7% ，均低于 2024 年同期水平。 投资负增长意味着经济中资本形成规模的收缩，产能过剩、市场投资意愿低迷，一定程度上是此前长 期、大量低效无效投资的后果；消费不振，则意味着居民消费信心不足，通常与收入不稳定、预期不 明朗等因素有关。 文 / 张向东 访谈开始前，滕泰看到了一个最新数据， 2025 年前 11 个月，中国固定资产投资增速为 -2.6% ，其中 民间固定资产投资 增速为 - 5.3% 。 在国家统计局 2025 年 12 月 15 日发布的统计图上，自今年 3 月以来，固定资产投资增速一路下 行。 2025 年 1-3 月全国投资增速为 4.2% ，是全年的最高点。 滕泰是中国民营经济研究会副会长、万博新经济研究院院长，是宏观经济、金融体系、资本市场等领 域内的资深专家。 2025 年 12 月 16 日， 国家发改委 发布的一篇文章称，内需不足是当前经济运行面临的主要挑 战 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dialogue between the chief economists of Zhongtai Securities highlights the core issues of China's economic growth model, emphasizing the shift from debt-driven growth to structural optimization [1] Group 1: Debt-Driven Growth - The past few decades have seen China relying on a debt-driven growth model, which is easy to understand despite its technical terminology [1] - The investment returns have diminished as the economy has developed, leading to a shift from an early target of "maintaining 8% growth" to a current target of "maintaining 5%" [3] - To achieve growth targets, China relies on the "three drivers" of investment, consumption, and exports, with investment becoming the most direct choice due to the challenges in boosting consumption and the uncertainties in exports [4][6] Group 2: Debt Accumulation and Economic Impact - From 2019 to 2023, local government debt has increased at a rate three times that of GDP growth, indicating a concerning trade-off between debt and economic growth [6][8] - The macro leverage ratio has exceeded 300%, surpassing that of developed countries like the U.S., raising concerns about the sustainability of this debt-driven model [8] - Many infrastructure projects have been built, but their utility is questionable, as some areas do not generate sufficient traffic to justify the investments [10] Group 3: Consumer Income and Spending - Only 20% of every dollar invested translates into resident income, which limits the potential for consumption growth [11] - Despite a decent GDP growth in the first half of the year, consumption has not increased correspondingly, highlighting a fundamental issue in the economic structure [11] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption, such as trade-in programs, often fail to benefit lower-income groups and can lead to price increases by manufacturers [13] Group 4: Service Sector Potential - The service sector has significant potential for growth and employment, with the U.S. absorbing over 80% of its workforce in services, compared to less than 50% in China [16] - Easing restrictions on the service sector could stimulate consumption among wealthier individuals, which in turn could create jobs for lower-income groups, fostering a positive economic cycle [18] - Optimizing fiscal spending towards healthcare, education, and direct consumer vouchers may yield more tangible benefits than direct cash transfers [18] Group 5: Economic Transition - Relying on debt for infrastructure development is becoming increasingly unsustainable, necessitating a shift towards consumption-driven growth [19][21] - Adjusting the economic structure to make consumption the primary driver of growth is essential for sustainable development [21] - The ultimate goal of economic development is to improve the quality of life for citizens, which requires careful resource allocation and addressing various challenges in the transition process [22]

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has assessed that Côte d'Ivoire's economic and fiscal performance continues to improve, with a projected GDP growth rate of 6.5% for 2023 and 6.0% for 2024 [2] - Inflation is expected to decrease to 1.8% in 2023 and rise to 3.5% in 2024, while the budget deficit as a percentage of GDP is projected to decline to 3.0% in 2023 and 4.0% in 2024 [2] - The government has set a target economic growth rate of 6.7% for the period of 2026-2030, supported by the third phase of the "Whale" oil field production [2] Economic Planning - The 2023-2026 economic and fiscal plan aims to ensure sustainable and inclusive growth, with a focus on maintaining fiscal and debt sustainability [2] - The plan is expected to raise $4.8 billion to support the country's economic goals and enhance its resilience to climate change [2] - The government is committed to stimulating youth employment and promoting a growth model centered on private sector productivity and diversification [2]

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is characterized by "low growth and high volatility," with increasing debt levels and persistent inflation, leading to a complex and challenging economic environment [5][6]. Group 1: Global Debt Issues - The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global public debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 95.1% and may rise to 99.6% by 2030, with developed countries like Japan exceeding 250% and the U.S. around 125% [9]. - The increase in government debt is linked to historical events such as the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, which forced governments to leverage debt to maintain stability [9][11]. - The debt cycle varies across sectors, with corporate debt being the shortest, human life cycles being medium, and national debt cycles being the longest due to government credit [9][10]. Group 2: China's Debt Landscape - China's debt situation differs from Western countries, with a central government leverage ratio of only 25%, but local government debt pressures are rising significantly [15]. - The macro leverage ratio, including hidden debts, is approaching 300%, surpassing the average levels of Western nations, indicating a need for caution [15][16]. - The debt issue in China is closely tied to its economic growth model, where investment contributes over 40% to GDP, leading to a cycle of "investment-debt" [16][17]. Group 3: Economic Outlook for 2025 - The Chinese economy showed resilience in the first half of the year, with export data performing well and consumption boosted by a 300 billion yuan policy [21][22]. - However, there are concerns about economic downward pressure in the second half, with investment growth slowing and real estate investment declining [22][23]. - Recommendations for policy adjustments include expanding consumption policies to benefit lower-income groups and enhancing social security to support human capital development [23][24]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Gold has been a strong performer, reflecting deep changes in the global economic landscape, and is seen as a suitable hedge in a high-volatility, low-growth environment [21][24]. - The capital market is expected to find balance, with A-shares potentially outperforming due to reasonable valuations and improving investor sentiment [23][24].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of formulating and implementing the "15th Five-Year Plan" to enhance China's modernization and economic growth, particularly focusing on increasing domestic consumption as a strategic resource amid complex external environments [1][2] - Current consumption as a percentage of GDP in China is relatively low, with final consumption projected to be 56.6% in 2024, which is significantly lower than developed economies and major emerging markets [3][4] - The contribution of final consumption to GDP growth is expected to be 44.5% in 2024, highlighting the need to boost domestic consumption to maintain economic growth amidst uncertainties in international trade [3][4] Group 2 - The low consumption ratio negatively impacts economic performance, leading to persistent low price levels, which in turn affects corporate profits, fiscal revenue, and market expectations [4] - The reasons for low consumption include a long-standing investment-driven growth model, insufficient consumer spending policies, and a disparity in income distribution among different income groups [5][6][7] - The internal structure of consumption is also a concern, with low public consumption and service consumption limiting overall economic growth and employment opportunities [8] Group 3 - To boost consumption, a multi-faceted approach is suggested, including enhancing macroeconomic policies to support consumption, improving public services, and addressing income distribution disparities [9][10][11] - Specific measures include increasing public consumption rates, implementing consumer subsidies, and reforming income distribution systems to enhance consumer purchasing power [9][10][11] - The strategy also involves improving the efficiency of resource allocation and ensuring that economic policies are aligned with the goal of increasing consumption as a share of GDP [11]