格隆汇11月5日｜浙商证券研报指出，泸州老窖25Q1-3实现归母净利润107.62亿元，同比-7.17%；25Q3 实现归母净利润30.99亿元，同比-13.07%。坚定维护国窖价盘稳定，陆续将资源向中高端大众主流产品 倾斜。当前，中国白酒行业正处于新一轮调整周期，行业整体呈现出"量减质升"的发展态势，白酒行业 已摆脱过去"产能扩张"的发展模式，正向"品质提升、品牌影响、文化表达、价值创造"转变。公司积极 布局高增长的光瓶酒赛道，全新的泸州老窖二曲产品目前已经开展试点推广，力争发挥好公司完整价格 带金字塔型产品体系更好的整体竞争优势。此外面对当前低度化、健康化、利口化、多元化等产品需 求，公司将继续推进38°产品发展。下一步公司仍将继续坚持"2358+100"的区域策略，进一步加强基地 市场深耕、精耕，巩固和扩大公司基地市场优势。看好渠道价盘管理能力较优下的长期业绩增长持续 性，维持"买入"评级。 ...

2025 年 11 月 04 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 刘洁铭 S0350521110006 liujm@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 郝天宇 S0350124060016 [Table_Title] 业绩调整延续，积极应对挑战 haoty@ghzq.com.cn ——泸州老窖（000568）2025 年三季报点评 事件: 2025 年 10 月 30 日，泸州老窖发布 2025 年三季报。2025 年前三季度 公司实现营业总收入 231.27 亿元，同比-4.84%；归母净利润 107.62 亿 元，同比-7.17%；扣非归母净利润 107.42 亿元，同比-7.11%。2025Q3 公司实现营收 66.74 亿元，同比-9.80%；归母净利润 30.99 亿元，同比 -13.07%；扣非归母净利润 30.92 亿元，同比-13.41%。 投资要点: | 最近一年走势 | | --- | | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/11/04 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 泸州老窖 | 0 ...

2025年，白酒行业调整持续深化，正处于从"规模扩张"转向"价值竞争"的关键节点。 在此背景下，泸州老窖展现出头部名酒的硬实力，前三季度实现营收231.27亿元、实现归母净利润107.62亿元，核心指标继续保持在头部白酒之列。 今年白酒行业整体承压，企业间的分化进一步加剧，泸州老窖则展现出头部酒企强大的抵御周期能力，调整期经营步伐稳健，不仅业绩波动小、品牌势能稳 健，酒价、股价更是稳中向好——截至11月3日，泸州老窖年内股价涨幅在板块位居前列，国窖1573更是今年批价最为稳定的高端白酒大单品。 事实上，面对当前正在深刻改变白酒行业的调整期，头部酒企充分意识到，当下的战略与执行如何推进，关系着企业的长期价值。 作为历经周期的头部名酒，泸州老窖既稳当下、亦谋长远，一方面"双品牌、三品系、大单品" 战略的深化，配合渠道深耕策略持续推开，在行业波动中稳 住了基本盘，经营实力已经远超上一轮周期；另一方面年轻化、数字化持续深耕，为下一周期的高质量发展筑牢根基。相较于上一轮行业调整期，泸州老窖 抵御周期的能力有了质的飞跃。 这种"短期稳得住、长期看得见"的发展逻辑，正是泸州老窖穿越周期的核心密码。 核心单品高度稳定 价盘与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is undergoing a significant adjustment, transitioning from "scale expansion" to "value competition," with Luzhou Laojiao demonstrating strong resilience and performance during this period [1][3]. Industry Overview - The overall liquor industry is facing pressure, leading to increased differentiation among companies. Luzhou Laojiao has shown robust resistance to cyclical challenges, maintaining stable performance and brand strength [3][10]. - As of November 3, Luzhou Laojiao's stock price has increased approximately 13% this year, ranking among the top in the liquor sector [9][10]. Company Performance - In the first three quarters, Luzhou Laojiao achieved revenue of 231.27 million yuan and a net profit of 107.62 million yuan, maintaining its position among leading liquor brands [1][5]. - The company's sales gross margin remained above 87%, continuing to lead the industry [7]. Strategic Initiatives - Luzhou Laojiao's "dual brand, three product lines, and major product" strategy has proven effective, with the Guojiao 1573 brand maintaining stable pricing and sales [5][7]. - The wholesale price of Guojiao 1573 has remained around 850 yuan, showing minimal fluctuation, making it the most stable high-end liquor product this year [7][8]. Channel Development - The company has focused on channel deepening, with new channel revenue increasing by 27.55% year-on-year in the first half of the year, outperforming the industry average [9]. - Luzhou Laojiao has implemented targeted marketing strategies in key cities and expanded into new channels such as e-commerce and live streaming [8][9]. Long-term Vision - Luzhou Laojiao is committed to youth-oriented and digital transformation strategies, aiming to capture the next generation of consumers [11][13]. - The company has invested in smart brewing technology and logistics, increasing production efficiency and reducing operational costs [13][14]. Shareholder Engagement - The controlling shareholder has increased their stake in the company, demonstrating confidence in its future growth. The company has also revised its dividend policy to enhance shareholder returns [16][17]. - Luzhou Laojiao's market value has increased over tenfold since the last industry downturn in 2014, establishing it as a benchmark for industry value [17].

近日，泸州老窖发布2025年三季度报告，第三季度实现营业收入66.74亿元；归属于上市公司股东的净利润30.99亿元。前三季度，泸州老窖实现营业收入 231.27亿元；归属于上市公司股东的净利润107.62亿元。 眼下，白酒行业依然处于深度调整期，竞争愈发激烈。在这种分化阶段，企业所采取的调整举措，恰恰是其成长性最直观、最核心的体现。 从今年取得的成绩看，泸州老窖通过主动调整实现业绩"稳中有进"，呈现出较强的发展韧性，并为后续复苏积蓄了能量。 泸州老窖的当下举措也印证了白酒行业正迎来结构性机会的重塑，全行业虽短期承压，但品牌力强的企业仍能通过产品、渠道、场景等方面的多元化发力 维持基本盘，获得稳健发展。而泸州老窖的实践，也为行业指明了一条在调整中谋发展、在分化中筑优势的路径，推动整个行业从规模竞争向质量竞争转 型。 产品结构持续优化 在这一轮行业周期下，泸州老窖业绩仍能保持稳健发展的"秘密"就藏在其产品结构里。 一直以来，泸州老窖坚定贯彻"双品牌、三品系、大单品"的发展战略，深度打造产品，优化产品结构。 目前，泸州老窖已经打造出以国窖1573和泸州老窖两个核心品牌为引领，覆盖高端、次高端、中低端全价格带的产品 ...

Group 1: Industry Outlook - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a new adjustment cycle, shifting from "capacity expansion" to "quality improvement, brand influence, cultural expression, and value creation" [2] - Consumer preferences are evolving from "quantity satisfaction" to "quality pursuit," with a focus on product value and brand connotation [2] - Young consumers prefer personalized, lower-alcohol, and enjoyable drinking experiences, along with "light social" scenarios [2] Group 2: Market Strategies - The company is implementing a long-term strategy for market cultivation, focusing on consumer service and sustainable growth in lower-tier markets [2] - Continuous product innovation is prioritized, with a focus on developing 38° products and promoting new drinking methods [3] - The company is reinforcing its core product lines, shifting resources towards mid-to-high-end products and exploring the light bottle liquor segment [3] Group 3: Channel and Marketing - The company is enhancing its digital marketing system to improve the precision of marketing expenditures and increase cost-effectiveness [3] - A comprehensive online and offline marketing network is being established to strengthen direct consumer engagement [3] - The company aims to maintain a balanced pricing strategy across different product tiers to ensure channel health and profitability [3] Group 4: Financial Performance - The company reported stable pricing for its flagship product, Guojiao 1573, maintaining its position in the high-end liquor market [3] - The company’s regional performance is synchronized with overall corporate health, particularly in Southwest, North China, and East China markets [3] - Future marketing expenditures will focus on brand building and consumer engagement while maintaining a reasonable expense ratio [3]

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao demonstrates strong resilience and growth potential during the "volume reduction and quality improvement" phase of the liquor industry, supported by a clear strategic focus and innovative approaches in low-alcohol, youth-oriented, and scenario-based developments [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Luzhou Laojiao achieved revenue of 23.127 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.762 billion yuan, maintaining a net profit margin exceeding 46% [2][4]. - The company's high profitability is attributed to the continuous optimization of its product structure towards high-value categories, reflecting the successful implementation of its "dual brand, three product lines, and major single product" strategy [2][5]. Group 2: High-End Strategy - Luzhou Laojiao's high-end strategy has proven to be a core support for stabilizing its operational fundamentals, with its flagship brand, Guojiao 1573, maintaining a strong competitive position in the high-end market [2][3]. - The brand's value has been enhanced through cultural and sports IP initiatives, including the International Poetry and Wine Culture Conference and sponsorship of major sports events, which have helped to elevate its global brand image [3][4]. Group 3: Low-Alcohol Innovation - The company has recognized the trend towards low-alcohol consumption, launching the 38% vol Guojiao 1573 in 2001, which has now become the first low-alcohol product in the industry to exceed 10 billion yuan in sales [4][5]. - Luzhou Laojiao's long-term investment in low-alcohol brewing technology has created a competitive edge, allowing it to integrate traditional brewing techniques with modern technology [5][6]. Group 4: Youth Engagement and Scenario Innovation - The rise of younger consumers is reshaping the market, prompting Luzhou Laojiao to focus on product renewal and scenario reconstruction to connect with this demographic [6][7]. - The launch of the 2025 version of Luzhou Laojiao Erqu, positioned as a value-returning light bottle wine, aims to enhance quality recognition and consumer loyalty among younger audiences [6][7]. - Luzhou Laojiao has implemented immersive experiences and cultural events, such as the "Jiao Master Festival," to deepen consumer engagement and resonate with younger lifestyles [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1-Q3 2025, indicating pressure on performance due to market conditions and policy impacts [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 23.127 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.762 billion yuan, down 7.17% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded revenue of 6.674 billion yuan, a decline of 9.80% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.099 billion yuan, down 13.07% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 87.11%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 46.67%, down 1.09 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a pricing strategy to stabilize terminal product prices, despite short-term performance pressures [1]. - The "Double Brand, Three Product Lines, Big Single Product" strategy is showing strong product capability, with stable pricing for the premium product Guojiao 1573 and steady growth for mid-range products [1]. - The company is actively entering the high-growth light bottle liquor segment, planning to launch a new product, Luzhou Laojiao Erqu, to strengthen its presence in the mass consumer market [1]. Expense Management - The company’s expense ratio for Q1-Q3 2025 was 12.29%, a decrease of 0.74 percentage points year-on-year, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing mixed changes [2]. - In Q3 2025, the expense ratio increased to 16.13%, up 1.51 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a rise in operational costs [2]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 29.636 billion yuan, 31.415 billion yuan, and 34.022 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 12.392 billion yuan, 13.232 billion yuan, and 14.578 billion yuan [3]. - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15.43, 14.45, and 13.11, respectively, indicating a favorable outlook [3].

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao's financial performance for the first three quarters of 2025 shows a slight decline in revenue and net profit, but it remains relatively stable compared to other companies in the liquor industry, which have experienced more significant declines [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 23.127 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.762 billion yuan, down 7.17% year-on-year [3]. - In Q3, revenue was 6.673 billion yuan, down 9.80%, and net profit was 3.099 billion yuan, down 13.07% [3]. - The net cash flow from operations for the first three quarters was 9.823 billion yuan, a decline of 21.20% year-on-year [3]. Market Resilience - Analysts noted that despite the overall industry downturn, Luzhou Laojiao's performance demonstrates relative resilience and risk resistance [3][4]. - The company's focus on the low-alcohol market has yielded significant results, with the 38-degree Guojiao 1573 product surpassing 10 billion yuan in sales, becoming the first low-alcohol liquor in the industry to reach this milestone [3]. Contract Liabilities - As of the end of Q3, contract liabilities reached 3.838 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 44.6% year-on-year, indicating strong confidence from distributors in Luzhou Laojiao's future performance [6]. - Analysts suggest that the increase in contract liabilities reflects the company's strong brand value and market demand, as distributors are willing to make proactive payments [6]. Industry Outlook - The liquor industry is expected to see a mild improvement in sales in Q4, but year-on-year performance will still be under pressure due to high channel inventory and limited dining consumption [6]. - Companies with strong brand power and effective channel management are anticipated to perform more steadily in the current market environment [6].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid introduction of new products by liquor companies is a proactive strategy to combat shrinking consumption and intense competition in the existing market [1][10]. Group 1: Product Launches by Guizhou Moutai - Guizhou Moutai has launched over 10 new products in the past two months, marking an unprecedented frequency in the industry [2][4]. - Notable product launches include the Taiyuan Red health wine on August 4, a limited edition commemorative wine on August 8, and the Moutai 1935 premium version on August 25 [4]. - The company has also introduced a series of cultural products and new packaging formats, indicating a strong push for innovation [4][10]. Group 2: Other Brands Following Suit - Other liquor brands have also begun to introduce new products, albeit in smaller quantities, reflecting a rare trend of concentrated innovation across the industry [5][10]. - Brands like Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu have launched new products, including a craft beer and upgraded versions of existing offerings [7][10]. - The trend includes a focus on low-alcohol products and light bottle designs, catering to younger consumers and the mass market [11]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Strategies - The recent surge in product launches is a response to significant market pressures, including regulatory changes and declining consumer interest [10][11]. - Companies are adopting strategies to stimulate consumer demand through product innovation and enhanced online sales channels [10][11]. - The emphasis on light bottle products and low-alcohol options indicates a shift towards appealing to younger demographics and expanding market reach [11].