Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current stock market is in a volatile adjustment, with market risk appetite slightly declining, leading to a phased recovery in the bond market. However, its fluctuation rhythm is still restricted by the stock - bond "seesaw" effect. If the upward momentum of the equity market weakens and the continuous upward trend ends, it may create favorable conditions for the bond market to have an independent market. - As the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September continues to rise, attention should be paid to China's fundamental data performance in August. If the economic data continues to weaken, it may boost the market's expectation of overall easing policies. - Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices increased by 0.21%, 0.17%, 0.04%, and 0.46% respectively, and trading volumes increased by 26100, 9741, 4112, and 40760 respectively. - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2512 - 2509, T12 - TL12, TF12 - T12, etc. showed different changes, with some narrowing and some widening. - **Futures Positions**: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all increased, and the net short positions of the top 20 in each contract also increased [2]. 3.2 Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of several CTD bonds such as 220019.IB, 220017.IB, etc. increased. - **Active Bonds**: The yields of 1y - 10y active bonds decreased, with a decline of 0.1 - 0.75bp [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: Silver - pledged overnight, Shibor overnight, silver - pledged 7 - day, and Shibor 7 - day interest rates increased, while Shibor 14 - day interest rate decreased. - **LPR Rates**: The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations The issuance scale of open - market operations was 229.1 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 379.9 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations, with a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Industry News - China's economic prosperity level continued to expand in August. The official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5% respectively, with month - on - month increases. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued a notice on the tax policy for the operation and management of state - owned equity and cash income transferred to enrich the social security fund, exempting VAT on certain income. - The "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans" was officially implemented on September 1st, and some bank executives were optimistic about its impact [2]. 3.6 Key Data to Watch - On September 4th, 20:15, the US ADP employment number for August (in ten thousand people). - On September 5th, 20:30, the US seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls for August (in ten thousand people) [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage where supply slows down and demand gradually recovers, and the industry outlook is positive. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 79,660 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,865 dollars/ton, down 19 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was 60 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 180,065 lots, down 579 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 12,236 lots, up 6,550 lots. The LME copper inventory was 158,875 tons, down 25 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper was 79,748 tons, down 1,950 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of cathode copper was 19,501 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 80,160 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 80,105 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 59 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 56.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was 500 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) was - 86.27 dollars/ton, down 6.01 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 256.01 million tons, up 21.05 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters was - 41.48 dollars/thousand tons, down 0.33 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 70,440 yuan/metal ton, up 140 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan was 71,140 yuan/metal ton, up 140 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north was 700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 127 million tons, down 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 480,000 tons, up 20,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 55,640 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 68,250 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 216.94 million tons, down 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 331.5 billion yuan, up 40.434 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 53,579.77 billion yuan, up 6,922.21 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,689,220.7 million pieces, up 183,435.3 million pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 7.25%, up 0.11%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 9.00%, down 0.10%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 11.25%, up 0.0156%; the ratio of call to put options at the money was 1.35, up 0.0981 [2] Industry News - The final value of the eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August rose to a more than three - year high of 50.7 from 49.8 in July, higher than the preliminary value of 50.5, and expanded for the first time since mid - 2022. The "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans" was officially implemented on September 1st. ECB President Lagarde said that the 2% inflation target has been achieved. New energy vehicle brands announced their August "report cards", with many brands achieving significant growth. Chinese President Xi Jinping made a keynote speech at the 25th meeting of the Council of Heads of Member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures are expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term and consider buying on dips in the long - term. The bond futures' conservative strategy is the curve steepening strategy, and the aggressive strategy can consider buying on dips in the short - term [11][12]. - The black commodities are expected to adjust prices in the short - term and maintain a volatile market in the medium - term. For iron alloys, focus on the long opportunity of the silicon iron 10 - contract and maintain the medium - long - term short - selling strategy for manganese silicon [16][17]. - For non - ferrous metals and new materials, the Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the alumina is recommended to be short - sold on rallies in the medium - term. The zinc price will oscillate downward, and the lithium carbonate will operate in a wide - range oscillation [21][22][23]. - In the agricultural products market, the cotton can be short - sold on rallies in the long - term, the sugar can be short - covered and observed, and the eggs' short positions can be closed on dips [28][30][34]. - In the energy and chemical industry, the crude oil can be short - sold on rallies, the fuel oil and asphalt prices will follow the oil price, and the plastics are expected to oscillate weakly [42][44][45]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - news - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit was held, and a series of important documents were approved. The personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policy was implemented, and the land market volume and price declined in August. The US may declare a housing emergency, and the eurozone unemployment rate dropped to a record low. South Korea's exports increased in August [8][9]. Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to be mainly volatile in the short - term and consider buying on dips in the long - term. The A - share market was strongly volatile on Monday, and the PMI data showed a slight rebound but the manufacturing was still below the boom level [11]. Treasury Bond Futures - The conservative strategy is the curve steepening strategy, and the aggressive strategy can consider buying on dips in the short - term. The funds were balanced and loose at the beginning of the month, and the market digested the PMI data [12]. Black Screw Steel and Iron Ore - The supply policy has limited impact on the steel market. The market may experience a situation where the peak season is not prosperous. The supply is expected to remain strong, and the price is expected to adjust in the short - term and oscillate in the medium - term [14][15][16]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to oscillate at a high level in the short - term. The supply is expected to be tight in the short - term, but there is also downward pressure [16][17]. Ferroalloys - Focus on the long opportunity of the silicon iron 10 - contract, and maintain the medium - long - term short - selling strategy for manganese silicon. The current supply of both is in surplus [17]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash can be short - sold on rallies, and glass can be observed. The supply of soda ash is expected to increase, and the demand for glass is weak [18][19]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, and alumina is recommended to be short - sold on rallies in the medium - term. The demand for aluminum is weak, and the supply of alumina is in surplus [21]. Shanghai Zinc - The zinc price will oscillate downward due to increasing supply and weak demand [22]. Lithium Carbonate - It will operate in a wide - range oscillation in the short - term, and the inventory is expected to decrease in September [23]. Industrial Silicon - It will oscillate, and the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang is the core contradiction [24][25]. Polysilicon - The policy progress dominates the market. The short - term may be supported by the policy, but there is a contradiction between the policy expectation and the surplus fundamentals [26]. Agricultural Products Cotton - It can be short - sold on rallies in the long - term. The supply is low, the demand is weak, and it is affected by the macro and external cotton markets [28][29][30]. Sugar - It can be short - covered and observed. The domestic supply is relatively loose, and the international market has both positive and negative factors [30][31][32]. Eggs - The short positions can be closed on dips. The supply pressure is high, and the market is in a game between weak reality and the expectation of culling old hens [34]. Apples - Consider buying on dips or the long 10 - short 01 positive spread strategy. The price of early - maturing apples is high - quality and high - price, and the inventory apples' price is stable [36]. Corn - Short the 01 - contract. The old - crop price is falling, and the new - crop has a certain expectation of a bumper harvest [38]. Red Dates - Observe. The price in the producing area is stable, and the price in the selling area is weak [39]. Pigs - Short the near - term contracts on rallies and consider long opportunities for the 01 - contract. The supply pressure is high in September, and the demand improvement is limited [39][40]. Energy and Chemical Industry Crude Oil - Consider short - selling on rallies. The supply is expected to exceed demand, and the price may decline [42]. Fuel Oil - The price will follow the oil price, and the short - term oil price is expected to be in the range of $65 - 70. The demand is affected by shipping and refinery raw material demand [44]. Plastics - Oscillate weakly. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak [45]. Rubber - Consider buying on dips. The short - term fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and there is a certain driving force for price increase [46]. Methanol - Consider reducing short positions. The port inventory is increasing, but there may be disturbances from the rumor of gas restrictions in Iran [47]. Caustic Soda - Maintain an oscillating strategy. The spot price is rising, but the futures are affected by the warehouse receipt problem [48]. Asphalt - Follow the oil price and be stronger than oil. The demand is in the peak season, and the supply is expected to increase in September [50]. Polyester Industry Chain - Observe in the short - term and consider the PX positive spread strategy. The cost is expected to oscillate, and the supply - demand structure of some products is expected to be optimistic [51]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Maintain a bearish view in the long - term. The supply is abundant, and the demand is difficult to exceed expectations [52]. Urea - Maintain a strong - oscillating strategy. The futures price is difficult to fall due to export rumors [53]. Synthetic Rubber - Consider low - buying opportunities. The fundamentals are gradually improving, but the upward movement is restricted by the weak market sentiment [54].