证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 06 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2026年01月06日 华源晨会精粹 20260106 北交所 2025 年新股首日涨幅均值 368%，千万级账户 2025 年收益率预计 3.4%-- 北交所新股月度巡礼（2025 年 12 月）：2025 年共计 26 家公司完成上市，募资 75 亿元，全年募资显著超越 2024 年；12 月有 3 家公司上市，募资额 7.8 亿元，2025Q4 则整体上市 11 家（募资 24 亿元），北交所 IPO 节奏维持加速态势。首日涨幅：2025 年北交所 IPO 首日平均涨幅达到 368%，较 2024 年显著提升。12 月 3 家新上市公 司，首日平均涨幅达 463%；2025Q4 涨幅均值达到 413%，主要是大鹏工业首日上 涨超 12 倍、蘅东光首日上涨 878%带动。申购热度：从网上申购资金来看，2025 年平均达 6624 亿元，12 月平均达 7812 亿元、再创历史新高。网上中签率持续下探， 2025 年均值为 0.037%。打新竞争日益激烈，北交所新股稀缺性进一步凸显 ...

证券研究报告 北交所定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 06 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 王宇璇 SAC：S1350525050003 wangyuxuan@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 2025 年国内消费市场热点涌现，11 月 CPI 同比增速达到年内高点。2025 年 1-11 月，CPI 同比增速整体呈低位波动后逐渐回升的趋势，11 月 CPI 同比增长 0.7%， 增速提升，达到年内高点。2025 年 1-11 月，PPI 同比增速整体为负，但边际好转， 工业品价格通缩压力略微得到缓解。2025 年 1-11 月主要商品零售品类呈现分化， 其中通讯器材类、家用电器和音像器材、家具类等受政策补贴增长强劲，体育、娱 乐用品、金银珠宝类增速也较高，烟酒、服装、饮料、建筑及装潢材料类等传统消 费品行业表现偏弱。2025 年中国消费市场涌现出一系列消费热点，如政策驱动类、 情感经济类、健康消费类、银发经济类、国潮经济类、体验经济类等消费热点。梳 理北 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the implementation plan released on November 26, aimed at enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods to further promote consumption [1][3]. Group 1: Key Consumption Areas - Three trillion-level consumption areas identified include elderly products, smart connected vehicles, and consumer electronics [5]. - Ten billion-level consumption hotspots include baby products, smart wearable devices, cosmetics, fitness equipment, outdoor products, pet food supplies, civilian drones, trendy toys, jewelry, and national trend clothing [5][6]. - The elderly products market is projected to grow from 2.6 trillion yuan in 2014 to 5.4 trillion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.3% [5]. Group 2: Addressing Supply and Demand Mismatches - The core objective of the implementation plan is to transition production and consumption from quantity to quality, addressing mismatches in supply and demand that lead to resource waste [7]. - The plan includes measures to expand new technologies, enhance product supply, and create new consumption scenarios to better match diverse consumer needs [7][8]. Group 3: Consumer Trends and Innovations - The user base for generative artificial intelligence products reached 515 million by mid-2023, indicating a growing application in consumer goods [8]. - The promotion of old-for-new consumption policies has generated over 2.4 trillion yuan in sales, benefiting more than 360 million people in the first ten months of the year [9]. - Future initiatives will focus on expanding large-scale consumption, fostering new types of consumption, and creating an international consumption environment [9].

Core Insights - The document outlines a plan to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, aiming for significant structural optimization by 2027, with the creation of three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots [1][5]. Group 1: Trillion-Level Consumption Sectors - The three trillion-level consumption sectors identified include elderly products, smart connected vehicles, and consumer electronics, reflecting a comprehensive assessment of consumption trends, industrial foundations, and technological changes [1][2]. Group 2: Hundred-Billion-Level Consumption Hotspots - The ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots encompass baby and children's products, smart wearable devices, cosmetics, fitness equipment, outdoor products, pet food and supplies, civilian drones, trendy toys, jewelry, and national trend clothing, all showing strong growth momentum and significant development potential [2][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Growth Potential - The elderly products market is projected to grow from 2.6 trillion yuan in 2014 to 5.4 trillion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.3%, highlighting the importance of the silver economy [1][2]. - The implementation plan aims to stimulate the domestic consumption market's resilience and vitality, potentially generating several trillion yuan in new consumption markets by 2027 through supply-side structural reforms [5]. - The strategy includes optimizing existing products by enhancing quality and cultural elements, as well as creating new products and services to meet emerging consumer needs, such as smart home ecosystems and solutions for the elderly [5].