"如果丢了工作，可能下个月的生活费就没有了。" 说这话的不是流浪汉，是一个在仓库有正式工作的美国合法公民。来美国最初的那几天打了几次Uber，和各个种族、背景的司机聊过。这位兼职的老墨司 机说这话时语气很平静，就像在描述今天的天气。 这不是个案。根据2025年5月美联储发布的《美国家庭经济状况调查报告》，37%的美国成年人连400美元的意外都无法轻松应对——一次小型车祸的自付 额，一次急诊的挂号费，一台坏掉的冰箱，就可能压垮一个人。只有55%的美国人有足够的应急储蓄覆盖三个月支出，30%的人表示无论用什么方式都撑 不过三个月。 这些数字不是贫困线以下的人群画像，而是覆盖了大量年薪五万、八万、甚至十万美元的中产家庭。收入看起来体面，但财务结构已经绷到极限。这就是 最近国内热议的"斩杀线"——美国人自己很少用这个词，因为这种处境就是日常本身。 作为一个长期关注消费赛道的投资者，我更关心一个被忽视的问题：为什么市场给美国消费定价"韧性"，给中国消费定价"疲软"？但如果把视角从数据表 现切换到数据结构上，会看到完全不同的东西—— 美国人的消费更多是一种义务，想活成个人样就得花钱；中国人的消费更多是一种权利，不花钱也能 ...

Q&A 2025 年特朗普上台后的政策对全球经济产生了哪些影响？ 2025 年是特朗普上台的第一年，他推出了一系列政策，增加了全球经济的不 确定性和运行风险。特别是对等关税的实施，对全球贸易产生了重大冲击。此 外，特朗普的外交政策转向与拜登时期明显不同，使得其盟友措手不及。政治 和地缘政治风险在 2025 年显著增加。 2026 年海外宏观形势展望 20251227 摘要 2025 年美国经济经历波动，二季度美元资产大幅波动引发担忧，下半 年贸易谈判落地后市场好转。预计 2026 年特朗普政府将继续推行以中 选为纲、关税调整、注重民生、财货双松的政策，政策不确定性降低， 风险趋于收敛。 特朗普政府通过关税政策显著增加财政收入，截至 11 月底已征收超过 2,300 亿美元，实际进口商品平均税率升至 11~12%。预计每月增收 300 亿美元，为减税和其他政策提供资金支持，但关税对通胀的影响相 对温和，主要影响家电、汽车零件等商品。 大美丽法案减税政策预计未来十年减税总额达 4.5 万亿美元，加剧财政 压力。美国民众面临食品、住房、儿童照护、医疗保健及公共事业费用 等多重经济压力，个人可支配收入增长未能完全覆盖 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant price fluctuations of Moutai, a premium Chinese liquor, and the resulting challenges faced by distributors and consumers in the market Group 1: Price Trends - Moutai prices have experienced dramatic volatility, with retail prices dropping from 2300 yuan per box in March to as low as 1780 yuan by the end of June, and further declining to 1790 yuan in early September [1][2][13] - The price recovery attempts by manufacturers have not been supported by sufficient trading volume, leading to a disconnect between manufacturer control and consumer sentiment [7][11] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Distributors are facing significant financial losses, with some reporting monthly losses of tens of thousands of yuan, leading to a cautious approach of halting purchases and closing warehouses [1][2] - The consumer perception of Moutai is shifting, with more individuals viewing it as an accessible product rather than a luxury collectible, impacting sales dynamics [2][9] Group 3: Structural Changes - The industry is witnessing a trend of "de-financialization," with reduced enthusiasm for investment speculation and a noticeable retreat from the investment side [4] - Consumer demographics are changing, with younger and female consumers becoming more rational and value-focused, moving away from blind pursuit of high prices [6] Group 4: Distribution Challenges - The increase in promotional channels, including discounts at duty-free stores, is eroding the premium image of high-end liquor [6] - The market is experiencing a significant decline in transaction volume, leading to longer inventory cycles for distributors and increased financial pressure [7][11] Group 5: Future Outlook - The market's future direction hinges on several factors, including sales performance during upcoming holidays, the effectiveness of manufacturers' price protection measures, and the timing of distributors' purchasing decisions [15]