报告导读： 扩内需逐步被提升至战略地位，消费板块有望触底反弹。白酒板块加速探底， 迈向供需平衡。大众品板块乳制品国产替代有望提速。 投资建议：成长为主线、重视供需出清下的拐点机会。 1）首选具有价格弹性标的，以及有望陆续出清标的；2）饮料结构性高增，重视低估值高股息；3）零 食及食品原料成长标的；4）啤酒；5）调味品平稳、牧业产能去化，餐供有望恢复。 白酒：加速探底，迈向供需平衡。 25Q3以来白酒行业加速探底，报表出清有助于降低渠道库存压力，展望2026年，龙头茅、五批价下行有望激发动销，从而 实现量价平衡。近期宏观及政策层面对消费板块预期形成积极催化，白酒作为顺周期资产，此前已进入加速调整阶段，板块估值分位偏低、股息率具备一定吸 引力，且对宏观环境变化较为敏感，我们认为在政策预期的引导下，股价有望先于基本面见底。 大众品：乳制品国产替代有望提速。 近期商务部对欧盟乳制品实施临时反补贴措施，涉及品类主要为乳酪和稀奶油，有望加速相关产品的国产替代过程，同 时有望增加耗奶量，加速行业周期反转。 风险提示： 宏观经济波动加大、行业竞争加剧、食品安全风险。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称 ...

Group 1 - The current consumption is not strong, but the weakest phase has passed, with retail sales growth expected to recover gradually in 2024 and 2025 [1][2] - The low point for retail sales growth in 2023 was around June to August, with June and August showing only 2.0% and 2.1% year-on-year growth, respectively [1] - The consumer style index and new consumption composite index have increased significantly, with a rise of 25.3% and 38.4% respectively from September 2024 to May 2025 [2] Group 2 - Factors driving the current consumption recovery include the easing of household balance sheet contraction, stabilization of cash flow due to adjustments in mortgage rates, and the end of the phenomenon of early repayments [3] - Continued and expanded policy benefits are expected to stimulate more durable consumer goods sectors in 2025 [4] - Clear support for new consumption formats is evident, with rapid development in sectors like cultural tourism and senior services [5] Group 3 - The strategic focus on consumer assets was suggested last year, based on indicators showing that consumer goods price indices and core CPI had reached their lows [6] - Historical patterns indicate that price cycles often contain all necessary logic regarding volume, suggesting that understanding price positions can be more insightful than merely analyzing volume [9] Group 4 - The recent trade negotiations and tariff exemptions have positively impacted market sentiment, with global stock markets showing overall gains [10][11] - The U.S. consumer confidence index and long-term inflation expectations have shown slight improvements, indicating that consumer sentiment remains a key support factor for the economy [17] Group 5 - The recent adjustments in monetary policy and liquidity conditions suggest a stable but slightly loose liquidity environment, with the DR007 rate fluctuating between 1.6% and 1.7% [20][21] - The construction sector is experiencing a decline in funding availability, particularly in non-residential projects, indicating a potential slowdown in infrastructure investment [22][23] Group 6 - The upcoming Dragon Boat Festival is expected to see significant inter-regional travel, with a projected year-on-year growth of 7%-8% in travel volume [24][25] - The tourism sector is showing strong recovery, particularly in family travel and inbound tourism, with notable increases in visitor numbers and spending [26]