2月13日，节前最后一个交易日，市场震荡调整，消费板块相对抗跌，截至14:30，中证消费50指数下跌 0.3%，中证港股通消费主题指数下跌0.8%。Wind数据显示，截至昨日，港股通消费ETF易方达 （513070）已连续7个交易日获资金净流入，合计超12亿元。 消息面上，国家统计局数据显示，1月份，居民消费需求持续恢复，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上 涨0.2%，同比上涨0.2%；全国工业生产者出厂价格（PPI）同比下降1.4%，降幅比上月收窄0.5个百分 点；环比上涨0.4%，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点。 市场上有消费ETF易方达（159798）、港股通消费ETF易方达（513070）分别跟踪以上指数，可助力投 资者把握消费需求复苏投资机遇。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟表示，1月CPI同比涨幅有所回落，主要有以下两方面原因：一是 春节错月影响。上年1月份为春节月份，食品和部分服务价格上涨较多，导致上年同期对比基数较高， 带动本月同比涨幅回落较多。二是国际油价变动导致能源价格降幅扩大，1月份能源价格下降5.0%。居 民消费需求持续恢复，核心CPI温和上涨的态势没有改变。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities is optimistic about Xtep International (01368) focusing on the mass market for steady growth, with its brands Saucony and Merrell targeting "dual elite groups" and outdoor activities, maintaining rapid growth and continuous profit improvement over the next 3-5 years [1] Group 1: Company Performance - On January 23, the company announced its operational status for Q4 2025, reporting that the main brand's online and offline retail sales remained flat year-on-year, with retail discounts between 70-75% [1] - For the full year of 2025, the main brand's total retail sales saw low single-digit year-on-year growth, with an end-of-year channel inventory turnover ratio of approximately 4.5 months [1] - Saucony's online and offline retail sales grew by over 30% year-on-year, achieving the management's previous guidance of 30% growth for the year [2] Group 2: Investment Outlook - The investment recommendation is positive, highlighting the main brand's ability to leverage its running category for steady sales growth, while professional sports brands are rapidly increasing profitability [2] - The running category showed strong performance despite negative factors such as temperature and delayed Spring Festival, with the main brand's sales remaining flat year-on-year [2] - Key running shoe categories and core series like "Two Thousand Kilometers" and "Champion Family" performed exceptionally well [2]

Core Viewpoint - After several months of decline, pig prices in China showed a mild recovery by the end of 2025, with the Dalian Commodity Exchange's main contract for live pig futures rising by 6.45% from its lowest point in early December [1] Group 1: Price Trends - National pig prices reached a low point in mid-December 2025, followed by a three-week rebound, with prices increasing from 12.13 yuan per kilogram in December to 12.61 yuan in January 2026, a month-on-month increase of 3.4% [1] - National pork prices also saw a decline from 23.89 yuan per kilogram in early October 2025 to 22.48 yuan in the last week of December, before rebounding to 22.80 yuan in January 2026, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.4% [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Weak demand has put pressure on pig prices, with excess production capacity contributing to the low prices [2] - The number of slaughtered pigs from January to November 2025 reached 36.246 million, a significant year-on-year increase of 19.3%, indicating a substantial rise in supply [2] - Consumer demand for pork remained weak throughout 2025, with traditional holiday stockpiling having limited impact on consumption [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - Experts predict a seasonal mild rebound in pig prices before the Spring Festival, but the extent of this rebound is expected to be limited [3] - The supply of live pigs is expected to remain ample, which fundamentally restricts the potential for price increases [3] - The recent rebound in pork prices is viewed as a temporary holiday effect, with limited long-term impact on overall market trends [3] Group 4: Industry Recommendations - The industry is currently in a phase of balancing high production capacity and seasonal demand recovery [4] - To enhance risk resilience, producers are advised to manage their output strategically and focus on long-term efficiency improvements [4] - Recommendations include optimizing breeding efficiency, controlling costs, and gradually reducing production capacity to improve profitability [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the benchmark index [5][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 1.498 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 12.84% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 105 million yuan, down 56.52% [1]. - The high-end liquor segment faced significant pressure in Q2 2025, with revenues declining by 36.95% year-on-year, while the average selling price for products also saw a notable drop [2][4]. - Despite challenges in traditional consumption scenarios, new channel revenues experienced substantial growth, with a 126.12% increase in H1 2025 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company's gross profit margin was 79.26%, a decrease of 1.71 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product mix [4]. - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 7.04%, down 7.07 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by declining gross margins and rising expense ratios [4]. - The company expects net profits of 1 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 25.45%, with projected P/E ratios of 23, 21, and 20 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][7].

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June turned from a decline to an increase of 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a marginal improvement in consumer prices [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest increase in nearly 14 months, reflecting a gradual recovery in consumer demand [3][4] CPI Analysis - The CPI's year-on-year increase was influenced by a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices and rising domestic fuel prices due to international oil price fluctuations [2] - The year-on-year decline in industrial consumer goods prices narrowed from 1.0% to 0.5%, reducing the downward pressure on CPI by approximately 0.18 percentage points [2] - Food prices decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with specific items like freshwater fish and fresh vegetables seeing price increases [3] PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month, with some industries showing signs of price stabilization and recovery [5] - The year-on-year decline in PPI expanded by 0.3 percentage points, but macroeconomic policies have improved supply-demand relationships in certain sectors [5][6] - Prices in the automotive manufacturing sector, including gasoline and new energy vehicles, showed a narrowing decline, indicating potential recovery in these industries [5][6] Policy Impact - The implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies has led to improvements in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, addressing supply-demand issues and supporting price trends [4] - The ongoing exit of outdated production capacity and the enhancement of product quality are expected to contribute to a gradual price recovery in the second half of the year [6]

Group 1: CPI Trends - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned from a decline to an increase of 0.1% year-on-year, while the month-on-month change decreased by 0.1%, narrowing the decline by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - The marginal improvement in CPI is attributed to the rebound in industrial consumer goods prices and the upward pressure on domestic refined oil prices due to external factors [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year in June, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month, the highest in nearly 14 months [3] Group 2: PPI Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month in June, with the decline remaining consistent with the previous month, although some industry prices showed signs of stabilization and recovery [5] - The year-on-year decline in PPI expanded by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, influenced by seasonal price declines in domestic raw materials and uncertainties in the international trade environment [5] - Certain sectors, such as the manufacturing of gasoline and new energy vehicles, saw a month-on-month price increase of 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively, with year-on-year declines narrowing by 1.9 and 0.4 percentage points [6] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Policy Impact - The implementation of more proactive macro policies has led to continuous improvement in the economic climate for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, addressing supply-demand structural issues and boosting the development speed of certain consumer goods and equipment manufacturing industries [4] - The effects of consumption promotion policies have been evident, with prices of durable consumer goods, home textiles, and household appliances rising by 2.0%, 2.0%, and 1.0% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The transition of the consumption market from "scale expansion" to "quality enhancement" is expected to further improve service consumption in culture and sports, driving a rebound in consumer prices [6]