[Table_Main] 行业研究|日常消费|食品、饮料与烟草 证券研究报告 食品、饮料与烟草行业 周报、月报 [Table_Title] CPI 同比转正，食饮板块预期修复 ——食品饮料行业双周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 行情回顾 1）近 2 周（11.10-11.21），A 股食品饮料行业（SW）上涨 1.34%， 跑赢上证指数 5.41pct，跑赢深证成指 7.80pct，跑赢沪深 300 指数 6.15pct。 2）细分行业方面，近 2 周 A 股食品饮料各细分行业（SW）中，乳品 （+6.67%）、预加工食品（+2.60%）、白酒（+2.52%）涨幅居前，软 饮料（-4.27%）、保健品（-2.25%）、零食（-1.02%）跌幅居前。 3）个股方面，在 A 股食品饮料行业（SW）所有个股中，近 2 周，南 侨食品（+23.58%）、欢乐家（+21.57%）、西麦食品（+9.26%）涨幅 居前，安记食品（-14.98%）、千味央厨（-14.33%）、麦趣尔（-10.11%） 跌幅居前。 食饮行业重点数据跟踪 1）白酒：根据同花顺 Ifind 数据，11 月 21 日飞天茅台原箱/散 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding cash flow, profit, and income in business operations, highlighting that cash flow is a critical indicator of financial health [4][5][15]. Group 1: Cash Flow Understanding - Cash flow thinking differentiates between "how much is earned" and "how much is retained," which is crucial for business sustainability [5][12]. - The example of a street vendor illustrates that while the vendor may have a monthly income of 50,000 yuan, the actual cash flow after expenses is only 8,000 yuan, which is the true free cash flow available for discretionary spending [6][8][12]. Group 2: Free Cash Flow Index - The article introduces the concept of free cash flow indices, which are designed to identify companies with strong cash flow generation capabilities [16][18]. - Two main indices in China are highlighted: the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index and the Zhongzheng Free Cash Flow Series, both of which exclude financial and real estate sectors to focus on cash flow quality [18][21]. Group 3: Historical Performance - Historical data shows that the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index has an annualized return of approximately 18% from 2013 to 2025, with a maximum drawdown of about 21% [19][23]. - The performance of these indices is attributed to their selection of high cash flow generating companies and their avoidance of sectors that faced significant downturns, such as finance and real estate [23][24]. Group 4: Investment Considerations - The article notes a growing interest in cash flow indices due to declining interest rates and the reduced liquidity of real estate investments, prompting investors to seek more stable returns [27][28]. - It suggests that investors should clarify their preferences between the two indices, as they have different sector focuses, and consider factors like tracking error, fees, and fund management experience when selecting funds [30][34].

Core Viewpoint - On November 11, a total of 19 stocks received buy ratings from brokerages, with one stock announcing a target price, indicating a positive sentiment in the market [1] Group 1: Stock Ratings - Among the stocks with buy ratings, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has the highest target price increase potential, estimated at 13.93% [1] - Out of the 19 stocks, 17 maintained their ratings, while 2 received ratings for the first time [1] Group 2: Industry Breakdown - The sectors with the highest number of stocks receiving buy ratings include Capital Goods (7 stocks), Technology Hardware and Equipment (4 stocks), and Food, Beverage, and Tobacco (2 stocks) [1]

Core Insights - On November 4, a total of 94 stocks received "buy" ratings from brokerages, with 2 stocks announcing target prices. The highest target price increases were for Baoli Food and Haier Smart Home, with expected increases of 36.88% and 33.36% respectively [1] Summary by Category Stock Ratings - 90 stocks maintained their ratings, 1 stock had an upgraded rating, and 3 stocks received their first ratings [1] - 5 stocks attracted attention from multiple brokerages, with Luzhou Laojiao, SAIC Motor, and Northern Huachuang receiving the highest number of ratings at 3, 2, and 2 respectively [1] Industry Analysis - The sectors with the most stocks receiving "buy" ratings were Capital Goods, Food, Beverages & Tobacco, and Materials II, with 14, 14, and 12 stocks respectively [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index successfully broke through the 4000-point mark but experienced a pullback, with the Consumption ETF (159928) closing down 0.48% and a total trading volume of 580 million yuan [1] - The Consumption ETF (159928) saw a net subscription of 11 million shares throughout the day, accumulating over 1.06 billion yuan in the last 10 days [1] - As of October 27, the latest scale of the Consumption ETF (159928) exceeded 20.8 billion yuan, leading its peers significantly [1] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption 50 ETF (159268) experienced a significant pullback, dropping over 2% with a trading volume exceeding 44 million yuan [3] - In the past 20 days, the ETF has attracted over 330 million yuan in net inflows [3] - Major component stocks in the ETF, including Anta Sports and Nongfu Spring, saw declines of over 2% [3] Company News - Guizhou Moutai's chairman, Zhang Deqin, resigned due to work adjustments, effective upon the board's receipt of his resignation letter [5][6] - The wholesale reference price for 53-degree 500ml Moutai fell to 1690 yuan, marking a 25 yuan decrease and the first time it has dropped below 1700 yuan since its listing [7] Industry Insights - The third-quarter reports are expected to show continued pressure on traditional consumer sectors, particularly in the liquor industry, with a potential slowdown in performance growth [8] - The white liquor sector is anticipated to experience both performance and valuation bottoms, suggesting a strategic opportunity for investment [8] - New consumption attributes are performing well, with companies like Dongpeng Beverage reporting significant revenue and profit growth [8] Consumption Trends - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the role of domestic demand, with a shift towards new demand leading supply, indicating a favorable environment for new consumption channels and categories [9][10] - The focus on health and functional products is increasing, with emerging categories like coconut water and health foods expected to benefit [10] - The dairy sector is projected to gain from policies aimed at boosting birth rates, positively impacting markets for liquid milk and infant formula [10][11] ETF Composition - The Consumption ETF (159928) has a significant allocation to top stocks, with the top ten holdings accounting for over 68% of the total weight, including major liquor brands and dairy companies [11][12]

Core Insights - On October 22, a total of 64 stocks received buy ratings from brokerages, with 19 stocks announcing target prices [1] - Based on the highest target prices, Wancheng Group, Baiya Co., and Pinggao Electric ranked highest in target price increase potential, with expected increases of 50.51%, 42.04%, and 39.02% respectively [1] - Among the rated stocks, 62 maintained their ratings, while 2 received their first ratings [1] - 14 stocks attracted attention from multiple brokerages, with China Jushi, Guai Bao Pet, and Pinggao Electric receiving the highest number of ratings, each with 3 brokerages providing ratings [1] - In terms of industry distribution, the highest number of buy-rated stocks came from the Food, Beverage & Tobacco, Capital Goods, and Materials II sectors, with 11, 9, and 7 stocks respectively [1]

Group 1 - On October 21, a total of 42 stocks received buy ratings from brokerages, with 10 stocks announcing target prices [1] - Based on the highest target prices, Ningde Times and ChuanTou Energy ranked highest in potential price increases, with expected rises of 50.84%, 50.62%, and 44.26% respectively [1] - Among the rated stocks, 39 maintained their ratings, 2 had their ratings upgraded, and 1 received its first rating [1] Group 2 - Eight stocks received attention from multiple brokerages, with Yanqing Beer, Ningde Times, and Lianlong leading in the number of ratings, receiving 5, 4, and 2 ratings respectively [1] - In terms of industry distribution, the highest number of buy-rated stocks belonged to the Materials II, Capital Goods, and Food, Beverage & Tobacco sectors, with 13, 6, and 6 stocks respectively [1]

Group 1 - On October 14, a total of 29 stocks received buy ratings from brokerages, with 2 stocks announcing target prices [1] - Based on the highest target price, Xinhua Insurance and Xugong Machinery ranked first in target price increase, with expected increases of 29.45% and 17.65% respectively [1] - Among the rated stocks, 25 maintained their ratings, while 4 received initial ratings [1] Group 2 - Two stocks, Zhongchong Co. and Xinhua Insurance, attracted attention from multiple brokerages, receiving the highest number of ratings at 4 and 3 respectively [1] - In terms of industry distribution, the sectors with the most buy-rated stocks were Healthcare Equipment and Services, Food, Beverage and Tobacco, and Capital Goods, with 6, 6, and 4 stocks respectively [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the food and beverage industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The A-share food and beverage industry has seen a decline of 1.48% over the past two weeks, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.68 percentage points and the Shenzhen Component Index by 5.29 percentage points [1][11] - In the sub-sectors, processed food (+0.71%) and soft drinks (+0.39%) have increased, while snacks (-5.82%), other alcoholic beverages (-3.70%), and baked goods (-3.23%) have experienced significant declines [1][11] - Key stocks such as Qianwei Yangchu (+21.28%), Richen Co. (+14.10%), and Weizhi Xiang (+10.87%) have shown notable gains, while Kweichow Moutai (-13.07%), Ziyan Food (-11.79%), and Jiahe Food (-11.54%) have faced substantial losses [1][11] Summary by Sections Market Review - The A-share food and beverage industry has declined by 3.37% year-to-date, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 17.35 percentage points and the Shenzhen Component Index by 28.88 percentage points [11] - The total retail sales in August reached 396.68 billion yuan, growing by 3.4% year-on-year, with a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to July [3][54] Key Data Tracking - The price of Feitian Moutai has decreased by 30 yuan for original boxes and 40 yuan for loose packaging compared to two weeks ago, with current prices at 1,830 yuan and 1,800 yuan respectively [2][26] - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas is 3.03 yuan per kilogram, down 3.5% year-on-year [34] Key Events Tracking - The national standard for sterilized milk has been revised, prohibiting the addition of reconstituted milk in long-term pure milk [3][54] - The snack brand Mingming Hen Mang has surpassed 20,000 stores, becoming the first in the domestic leisure food and beverage chain industry to achieve this milestone [3][54] Investment Recommendations - In the liquor sector, it is advised to closely monitor price trends and sales performance, focusing on high-end liquor companies with strong brand and channel capabilities such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [7][56] - For consumer goods, the beer industry remains stable, and there is high demand in segments like snacks and energy drinks [7][57]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown a significant recovery, with the consumption ETF (159928) rising by 0.82% and achieving a total transaction volume of 8.91 billion yuan, indicating a strong inflow of funds [1] - The consumption ETF (159928) has seen a net subscription of 462 million units, accumulating over 3 billion yuan in the last ten days, with a total share exceeding 21.3 billion, leading its peers [1] - New policies aimed at expanding service consumption are expected to be announced soon, with inbound tourism consumption anticipated to boost domestic demand [3] Group 2 - The food and beverage sector is showing signs of marginal improvement, with a projected consumption recovery in the second half of 2025, as indicated by a 5.6% year-on-year revenue growth in Q2 2025, up from 4.6% in Q1 [6] - The report highlights a divergence in performance among companies, with leading brands like Kweichow Moutai and Haitian Flavoring maintaining stable growth, while some second-tier brands are experiencing revenue declines [9] - The beverage sector has shown resilience, with many snack companies performing well, suggesting a gradual recovery in demand across various industries in the latter half of 2025 [9] Group 3 - The white liquor sector is beginning to show signs of bottoming out, with market liquidity supporting a rise in valuations, despite short-term consumption pressures from regulatory restrictions [10] - The report indicates that the white liquor industry is undergoing a cleansing phase, with performance under pressure but showing signs of improvement, particularly in August [10] - High-end liquor brands are maintaining resilience through effective brand management and channel control, while second-tier brands are more directly affected by policy changes [11] Group 4 - The consumption ETF (159928) is characterized by its strong demand and resilience across economic cycles, with over 68% of its top ten holdings in essential consumer goods [12] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies in the consumer sector, particularly those with strong growth potential and innovative distribution channels [9][12] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption 50 ETF (159268) is highlighted as an efficient investment option for accessing the consumer sector, particularly for younger consumers [12]