当地时间12月20日凌晨，在美国国防部支持下，美国海岸警卫队在委内瑞拉附近海域扣押了一艘悬挂巴拿马国旗的油轮。这是10天内美方在委附近海域扣押 的第二艘油轮。委方谴责这一严重"海盗行为"触犯国际法。 9月初以来，美军在加勒比海和东太平洋多次打击"贩毒船"，已造成上百人死亡。美方还在委附近海域部署多艘军舰，于11月13日宣布发起"南方之矛"军事 行动，对委施压。 特朗普试图颠覆马杜罗政权 12月10日，美国在委内瑞拉附近海域武力扣押一艘油轮，宣布将没收船上石油。16日，特朗普下令对所有进出委内瑞拉的受美国制裁油轮实施"全面彻底封 锁"。 19日他表示，将继续扣押更多油轮，并直言不排除与委内瑞拉开战的可能性。特朗普还说，"马杜罗完全清楚我想要什么。他比任何人都更明白这一点。" 12月10日，美军在委内瑞拉附近海域扣押了一艘油轮。 新华社发 委内瑞拉是世界石油储量最丰富的国家，已探明储量3000亿桶，约占全球17%。中国现代国际关系研究院拉美所副研究员严谨表示，特朗普政府连续扣押委 内瑞拉油轮，主要是通过这种非法的长臂管辖措施不断收紧对委内瑞拉石油贸易的制裁，并在委内瑞拉石油贸易伙伴间制造寒蝉效应，叠加"禁空令"等 ...

在会议上，普京表示，拜登蓄意发动了俄乌战争，而欧洲猪猡们与拜登站在一起，使得这场战争拖得越 来越长——这也是他无法占领乌克兰的原因。他情绪激动地控诉说，俄罗斯曾渴望融入欧洲大家庭，但 欧洲长期视俄罗斯为风险源和麻烦制造者，对俄罗斯进行歧视，拒绝接纳，并排挤打压。没有俄罗斯的 加入，欧洲才变得堕落，缺乏文明。他威胁道，如果乌克兰及其外国支持者拒绝川普团队提出的从顿涅 茨克撤军的要求，俄罗斯将采取军事手段解放所谓的历史领土。普京的言辞与川普极为相似，似乎在使 用同一份底稿。关于军事占领乌克兰领土的言论，两人形成了一个完整的闭环——乌克兰必须从顿涅茨 克撤出军队，其他国家的军队不允许进驻乌克兰，否则就会爆发战争。欧洲和乌克兰的态度也很明确： 那就打吧！ 2026年即将到来，援助乌克兰的国家已经为乌克兰准备了新年的礼包——德国提供了115亿欧元、9套 IRIS-T和爱国者防空系统（部分已交付）；英国提供了6亿英镑；加拿大提供了3000万加元、AIM-9导 弹和电光传感器等军事装备；荷兰提供了7亿欧元；黑山宣布向《乌克兰优先需求清单》出资购买美国 武器；丹麦提供了2.5亿欧元；波罗的海三国每年将GDP的0.25%捐给乌 ...

每经编辑｜陈柯名 据参考消息援引美联社12月9日报道，立陶宛政府9日宣布进入国家紧急状态，原因是来自俄罗斯盟友白俄罗斯的气球近几周侵犯了该国领空，构成安全风 险。 过去几周，来自白俄罗斯的气象气球迫使立陶宛多次关闭其主要机场，导致数以千计的人员滞留。随后，立陶宛和白俄罗斯之间的紧张关系升级。 立陶宛一名官员正在检查一个用于向立陶宛运送香烟的气球。图源：视觉中国 据新华社援引波罗的海通讯社报道称，近几个月来，来自白俄罗斯的香烟走私者放飞的气象气球十余次干扰立陶宛首都维尔纽斯的机场运营，第二大城市 考纳斯的机场也曾遭类似干扰。 据立陶宛政府机构发布的统计数据，今年已有599个"走私气球"和197架无人机进入立陶宛领空，导致320个航班延误，造成机场关闭累计近60小时。 立陶宛政府在一份声明中提到了"国家安全利益"和这些气球对人员生命、财产和环境构成的"危险"。这些气球携带来自白俄罗斯的"违禁品"。一些人认为 这些行为是一种混合战争。 报道称，在作出这一宣布前，这个波罗的海国家召开了一次内阁会议。立陶宛是北约成员国，也是乌克兰的坚定支持者。 当地时间2025年10月28日，立陶宛东南部萨尔奇宁凯附近，立陶宛与白俄罗 ...

科巴希泽说，BBC的报道包含多项虚假指控，其中最敏感的就是声称格警方使用所谓的"违禁化学武器"来针对示威者。格国家安全局的调查已"确 凿地证实"警方从未使用或进口过此类物质。 △格鲁吉亚总理科巴希泽（资料图） 格鲁吉亚总理科巴希泽12月6日就英国广播公司（BBC）此前的一则报道表示，该报道完全基于"捏造和虚构的故事"，被一些团体用来在格鲁吉亚 国内外煽动愤怒、发动对格"混合战争"。 BBC此前报道称，该媒体收集的证据表明，格鲁吉亚政府在2024年使用了第一次世界大战时期的化学武器来应对抗议示威者。 科巴希泽6日在新闻发布会上表示，BBC的报道被一些政治动机强烈的团体用来发动针对格鲁吉亚及其人民的"新的混合战争"，并在国内外煽动愤 怒。针对格鲁吉亚发动"混合战争"的目的是要破坏该国稳定及主权，通过挑起冲突来制造社会动荡并损害其国家利益。针对协助外国势力从事敌 对活动的格鲁吉亚人的调查工作将继续进行。 据悉，执政的"格鲁吉亚梦想-民主格鲁吉亚"党此前已宣布将在国际法院对BBC提起诉讼。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Russian President Putin's warning at the investment forum has heightened tensions across Europe, indicating Russia's readiness for a rapid military response if Europe initiates conflict [1][6]. Group 1: Diplomatic Engagements - A five-hour dialogue took place between Putin and U.S. representatives, but no compromises were reached, highlighting the lack of progress in U.S.-Russia relations [3]. - The U.S. presented a modified peace plan aimed at promoting a ceasefire, but Putin rejected it, citing ongoing European interference and key disagreements over territorial and security issues [4]. Group 2: Military Preparedness - Russia has made substantial military preparations for a potential "lightning war," with significant troop deployments and strategic assets positioned near Europe, indicating readiness for rapid military action [9][19]. - The logistical weaknesses of NATO were exposed, with slow troop deployment capabilities and reliance on aging infrastructure, which could hinder effective military responses [11]. Group 3: European Vulnerabilities - European public opinion is divided on military engagement, with low support for conscription and military spending, complicating collective defense efforts [12]. - The EU's commitment to support Ukraine has faced challenges, with unfulfilled promises and internal dissent among member states regarding continued military aid [11][14]. Group 4: Geopolitical Dynamics - The ongoing crisis reflects a complex four-way geopolitical struggle, with Russia seeking to establish a buffer zone in Ukraine, while the U.S. grapples with its strategic focus on China amidst European dependencies [14]. - Ukraine's position has become precarious, caught between major powers, with its territorial integrity under threat as Russian forces continue to gain ground [15]. Group 5: Hybrid Warfare - An "shadow war" is reportedly underway in Europe, with incidents of drone incursions and sabotage of energy infrastructure, blurring the lines between war and peace [17][20]. - The conflict has expanded to energy facilities, with both sides targeting critical infrastructure, indicating a shift towards asymmetric warfare tactics [20].

Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions and Infrastructure Attacks - Recent attacks on critical infrastructure in Poland, including the destruction of a key railway line, highlight the severity of mixed warfare tactics being employed, particularly by Russia [1][3] - Experts suggest that these attacks are part of a broader strategy outlined in Russia's Gerasimov Doctrine, indicating a shift towards more aggressive mixed warfare tactics [3] - The ongoing attacks aim to disrupt civilian life and create societal chaos, emphasizing the need for heightened vigilance among the public [3] Group 2: Military Aid to Ukraine - Ukrainian President Zelensky has been actively securing military support, including a recent agreement with France for 100 Rafale fighter jets and air defense systems, which are crucial for maintaining air superiority in the ongoing conflict [5] - Spain has committed a record €11.29 billion in military aid to Ukraine, marking the largest foreign aid package in its history, reflecting increasing European support for Ukraine [5] - Despite the influx of military aid, Ukraine faces a significant funding gap, with an urgent need for €135 billion over the next two years to sustain operations [7] Group 3: Energy Crisis and Strategic Responses - The energy crisis in Europe is exacerbated by sanctions against Russian oil and gas, leading to fears of supply shortages in countries like Serbia [8] - Poland is actively working on building a second LNG terminal, while Greece is facilitating the transport of U.S. LNG to Ukraine, indicating a strategic shift towards reducing dependency on Russian energy [8] - The European Union is exploring various solutions to address Ukraine's funding needs, including potential debt issuance and utilizing frozen Russian assets [7] Group 4: Political Instability in Central Europe - Political tensions are rising in Central Europe, with Poland reopening border crossings under specific conditions, reflecting ongoing security concerns related to Belarus [10] - In the Czech Republic, political deadlock over the prime ministerial position is linked to differing views on Ukraine, while Slovakia faces public protests against pro-Russian policies [12][13] - The interconnectedness of security issues and political stability in Europe underscores the impact of geopolitical dynamics on domestic governance [13] Group 5: Overall European Landscape - The current European landscape is characterized by a series of crises, including security threats, energy shortages, and political turmoil, all stemming from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [15] - The necessity for European nations to unite in the face of these challenges is emphasized, as internal divisions could lead to vulnerabilities that external forces may exploit [15]

来源：参考消息 据新加坡《联合早报》网站11月7日援引路透社报道，俄罗斯外交部长拉夫罗夫本周缺席 了通常应该出席的克里姆林宫重要会议，普京还选择其他代表出席本月晚些时候在南非举 行的二十国集团（G20）峰会。过去两周，俄罗斯外交部一直没公布拉夫罗夫接下来一周 的出访计划，以及公开演讲安排。 英国《金融时报》引述消息人士报道称，拉夫罗夫与美国国务卿鲁比奥的通话，令华盛顿 却步。俄外交部发言人扎哈罗娃7日暗示，《金融时报》的报道旨在煽动对莫斯科不利的 猜测，是针对俄罗斯"混合战争"的一部分。 报道称，现年75岁的拉夫罗夫是苏联时期资深外交官，以强硬谈判风格著称，已担任俄外 长20多年。 les & FR 点击下载中国基金报客户端 ■ 中国基金报内容矩阵 ■ 巅峰对话 投资热点说 ETF风向标 IPO情报站 fe o 1 ■ a a - 444 and 4 4 CHINAFUND CHINAFUND CHINAFUND CHINAFUND 开盘速递 港股日报 全球早班车 数说人物 √ � [ 8 a 4 a g a d 4 4 4 CHINAFUND CHINAFUND CHINAFUND CHINAFUND ●微 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the increasing tensions between Russia and NATO, highlighting concerns over potential military escalation in Europe, with some political figures suggesting that Russia's actions could lead to a "Pearl Harbor" scenario [1] - The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicates that Russia has entered the first phase of preparing for war against NATO, which includes military restructuring near NATO borders and ongoing drone provocations [1] - NATO has taken precautionary measures, such as stopping the use of public transponders for aircraft in European airspace, to conceal flight paths and potentially deter Russian incursions [1] Group 2 - The European Union is leveraging economic power against Russia, planning to sanction a major cryptocurrency used for cross-border payments that supports approximately $68 billion in transactions [6] - Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has criticized the West's reluctance to negotiate with Russia, despite Hungary's recent significant liquefied natural gas contracts, indicating a complex stance on energy supply diversification [8] - Turkey is also reducing its dependence on Iranian and Russian gas by increasing domestic production and importing more liquefied natural gas from the United States, with expectations that this shift will meet over half of its gas demand by 2028 [10]

Core Points - The EU leaders convened in Copenhagen to address the escalating threats posed by Russia, highlighting a shift from peace to a state of "hybrid warfare" in Europe [1][4] - The summit revealed a consensus among EU nations to enhance defense capabilities, with a proposed investment of €800 billion to establish a robust European defense system [4][5] - Discussions included the potential use of frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine or bolster national defense, although this proposal faced opposition from several member states [4][6] Group 1: Security Threats - Recent incidents across Europe, including drone harassment in Denmark and cyberattacks in Finland, have raised alarms about security vulnerabilities linked to Russia [1][2] - Investigations traced the origins of these attacks to Russia, indicating a broader cyber warfare strategy alongside military actions in Ukraine [2][4] Group 2: Defense Initiatives - The EU plans to create a "NATO-shared radar system" along borders in Denmark, Finland, and Poland to enhance early warning capabilities against potential Russian aggression [5] - There is a growing recognition among EU nations, including traditionally neutral countries like Portugal and Greece, of the need for a collective defense strategy [5][8] Group 3: Internal Challenges - Despite a unified front against Russian threats, the EU faces internal divisions regarding funding allocation, equipment deployment, and command coordination [8] - The summit did not declare a state of full confrontation, reflecting a cautious approach to maintaining peace while preparing for potential conflicts [8]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the U.S.-China economic dispute, with Trump making concessions to China amid domestic political challenges, particularly the impact on U.S. soybean farmers [1][3]. - The decline in U.S. soybean exports, especially to China, has significantly affected American farmers, who were once Trump's supporters, leading to a loss of confidence in his administration [3]. - Despite efforts to find alternative markets and promises of subsidies, the inability to replace China's demand for soybeans has forced Trump to reconsider trade relations with China [3]. Group 2 - The ongoing "soybean tug-of-war" illustrates the depth of U.S.-China competition, which has evolved from traditional diplomatic and military confrontations to a more complex economic and technological rivalry [5]. - China's strategic responses, such as rare earth export controls and halting soybean imports, have effectively countered Trump's unconventional tactics, showcasing a "mixed warfare" approach [5]. - China's military strength plays a crucial role in this competition, with recent military displays enhancing its negotiating power against U.S. sanctions and blockades [5]. Group 3 - While large-scale military conflict between the U.S. and China is unlikely, localized conflicts in hotspots like the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea could arise as the U.S. seeks to contain China's rise [7]. - The U.S. military faces challenges such as outdated equipment and budget issues, reducing the likelihood of a significant confrontation with China [7]. - The complexity and danger of the ongoing "invisible battlefield" between the two nations indicate that their competition will persist [7].