距离美国关税宽限期结束还不到一星期之际，美国总统特朗普宣布：由于在美国规定的期限内，只有寥寥几个国家同美国达成共识，美国将从7月5号开始， 通过邮件致函的方式，每天向10到12国家通知美国单方面指定的关税税率。 在中美两国最新达成的贸易共识中，虽然中国承受的55％关税要远比越南高，但因为中国工业品普遍技术含量高、附加值高，当物美价廉的中国新能源汽车 冲击美国市场时，55％的关税作用有限。 并且美国还通过其它方式对中国进行了补偿，美国宣布会放宽对中国的乙烷以及半导体相关出口限制，这让眼下处于产业升级阶段的中国企业如鱼得水。 特朗普还强调，此次美国致函通知关税税率大致范围在10％到70％，比特朗普在宽限期之前制定的标准还高，按照特朗普的说法，这是为了给那些不配合美 国的国家一点教训。 可就在特朗普沉浸在自己的霸权美梦时，一个反对的声音贯彻入耳，这个声音的发起者不是拳头最硬的中国，而是嘴硬的印度。 面对关税，重拳出击 在特朗普发起此轮关税战之时，最先给美国下马威的国家是中国，中国凭借自身庞大的经济体量，以及超强的经济韧性，对来自美国的关税采取对等反制， 把特朗普打的跪地求饶，后面又通过稀土王牌让美国感受到被人拿捏的 ...

据法国论坛报：印尼可能会再订购24架阵风战机。 ...

赶在本届巴黎航展开幕前夕，达索公司CEO埃里克·特拉皮耶（Éric Trappier）接受法国财经杂志《挑 战》（Challenges）采访时，急于给"阵风"挽尊，并对此前一直避而不谈的"阵风"损失问题给出了回 应。 根据《挑战》杂志6月12日发布的专访报道，特拉皮耶在回应印巴空战中"阵风"的损失情况时说，印度 方面尚未就此进行沟通，所以达索不清楚具体发生了什么。 【文/观察者网 刘程辉】 "'阵风'确实是世界上最好的飞机，比F-35更好，也比市场上所有的中国飞机都要好得多……" 被印巴空战砸了招牌，"阵风"制造商达索有些着急上火，不惜打肿脸充胖子。 "至于有没有损失，以及战争目标是否实现，我们拭目以待。当真相大白时，有些人可能会感到惊讶。" 达索公司CEO埃里 克·特拉皮耶 《挑战》杂志 特拉皮耶接着夸口说，在投入使用20年后，"阵风"仍是世界一流水平。 "夸自己绝对是最强的总是很难，但我真诚地认为，综合性能上我们是最好的。" 他说："显然，如果要与F-22在空战中正面对抗，对'阵风'来说会比较困难。但如果你需要一架能够执行 空战、侦察、对地打击、核任务，并能上舰的战斗机，我认为'阵风'确实是世界上最好的飞 ...

Group 1 - Southeast Asia's strategic importance is highlighted due to its unique geographical position and rapid economic development, making it a focal point for global powers [2][3] - French President Macron's visit to Vietnam, Indonesia, and Singapore marks his first trip to Southeast Asia since taking office, emphasizing France's defense cooperation with these nations [2][3] - The U.S. military presence in the South China Sea has increased significantly, with approximately 1,000 reconnaissance flights and 706 days of ocean monitoring activities reported in 2024 [3] Group 2 - The U.S. aims to strengthen alliances in Southeast Asia, with the Philippines proposing a defense dialogue mechanism similar to the Quad [4][5] - India's economic growth positions it as a significant player in the region, with bilateral trade with ASEAN reaching $122.67 billion in the 2023-2024 fiscal year [5] - The historical context of Western colonialism in Southeast Asia continues to influence current geopolitical dynamics and defense relationships [7][8] Group 3 - The arms market in Southeast Asia is a key focus for Western powers, with France and the U.S. actively promoting military sales during diplomatic visits [9][10] - Southeast Asian nations face challenges in meeting increased defense spending demands, with many countries struggling to allocate sufficient budgets for military procurement [10][11] - Regional stability and economic cooperation with China are seen as vital interests for Southeast Asian countries, countering Western attempts to escalate tensions [11][12]

军贸有望引领军工产能价值重估 20250609 摘要 印尼军方正评估采购中国歼 10 战机，旨在平衡国防预算与性能需求。 此前印尼已购入美制 F16、俄制苏 27/30，并与法国签订阵风战机采购 协议，但阵风在印巴冲突中表现不佳，促使印尼重新考虑军购策略。 在印巴冲突中，巴基斯坦空军使用歼 10 战机击落多架印度战机，包括 法国阵风、俄罗斯苏 30 和米格 29，以及一架印度苍鹭无人机，而中国 制造的歼 10 战机无一受损，实战表现突出，验证了中国四代机的性能。 中国军贸正从出口老式武器转向自主研制高端装备，如红旗-22 等。航 空装备方面，歼 10、歼 20、歼 35 等先进战斗机摆脱知识产权限制， 有望通过出口弥补供给端不足，提升中国在国际军贸市场的地位。 歼 35 具备高性价比、技术自主可控和完全国产化三大优势，与美国 F35 定位相似。F35 已获得大量订单并交付，若歼 35 能达到其一半成 就，将显著提升中航成飞的业绩。 军贸环节中，主机厂可享受显著溢价，改善盈利能力。相比国内销售， 军贸毛利率更高。飞机在过去十年全球武器装备订单中占比最高，主机 厂如飞机雷达制造商将显著受益于军贸溢价。 Q&A 最 ...

Core Points - The U.S. is pressuring India to distance itself from BRICS in exchange for a trade agreement, highlighting a shift in diplomatic tactics [1][3] - The U.S. sees India as a crucial player in its Indo-Pacific strategy, aiming to weaken China's influence by leveraging India's position [3][5] - India's reliance on Chinese manufacturing is significant, with a projected 37% increase in imports of Chinese machinery and electrical products in 2024 [5] - The U.S. demands include opening India's agricultural market to American soybeans and threatening military supply chains, particularly for F-21 fighter jet parts [7] - India is strategically delaying its response to U.S. demands while strengthening ties with Russia and exploring alternative currency agreements with the Middle East [9] - China's response to the situation has been measured, with support for India through infrastructure loans, contrasting with U.S. tactics [10] - Internal divisions in India are evident, with public sentiment largely against U.S. economic pressure and protests against American agricultural imports [12] - Global reactions to U.S. pressure include support for BRICS from other nations, indicating a broader resistance to U.S. hegemony [14] Summary by Sections U.S.-India Relations - The U.S. Commerce Secretary's visit to India was marked by a stark warning to sever ties with BRICS for a trade deal [1] - The U.S. initially expected compliance from 75 countries regarding tariffs but faced resistance, particularly from India [3] Economic Implications - The U.S. is pushing for India to open its agricultural market, which could significantly impact local farmers [7] - India's imports from China are expected to rise sharply, indicating a complex economic interdependence [5] Strategic Maneuvering - India is employing a strategy of delay while seeking to strengthen its energy ties with Russia and explore alternative economic frameworks [9] - China's support for India through financial means contrasts with U.S. pressure tactics, showcasing a different diplomatic approach [10] Domestic Sentiment - There is significant public backlash in India against U.S. economic policies, with protests emerging against American agricultural imports [12] - The internal political landscape in India is divided, with strong opposition to U.S. influence and calls for maintaining BRICS membership [12] Global Context - Other BRICS nations are rallying against U.S. pressure, indicating a potential shift in global power dynamics [14]

欧洲国家元首首次受邀在会上发表主旨演讲、中美军事关系……在全球多个地区局势依然紧张的背景 下，今年的香格里拉对话会有多个看点值得关注。 5月30日晚，为期3天的第22届香格里拉对话会（简称"香会"）将在新加坡开幕。据了解，主办方预计， 来自40个国家的国防部长、高级官员、安全专家等约550人将出席此次会议。 香格里拉对话会是由英国国际战略研究所、新加坡国防部亚洲安全峰会办公室联合举办的年度论坛，每 年6月左右在新加坡市中心的香格里拉大酒店举行，故得名"香格里拉对话会"。"香会"是亚太地区安全 对话机制中各国出席层级最高的"一轨半"对话机制，自2002年首次举办以来，"香会"已举办21届，规模 不断扩大，成为讨论亚太安全最具影响力的多边平台之一。 "香会"期间，除正式议程外，参与方之间还将举行各种双边和多边会议。《环球时报》援引韩联社称， 预计今年对话会将重点关注美国对亚洲和欧洲的新安全政策、美中竞争以及南海等问题。而长期化的俄 乌冲突、最近发生的印巴冲突等也被列为主要议题。 看点一：马克龙如何阐述法国的"印太战略" 根据主办方公布的日程，今年"香会"的开幕晚宴将于5月30日举行，开幕式主旨演讲将由法国总统马克 ...

Group 1 - The Indian Ministry of Defence has approved a framework plan for the construction of the country's most advanced stealth fighter jet, which is expected to be a twin-engine fifth-generation aircraft [1][3] - The Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) will soon invite defense companies interested in developing the prototype of the stealth fighter, allowing both private and state-owned companies to participate in the bidding process [3] - The project is deemed crucial for the Indian Air Force, with a defense committee suggesting the inclusion of private companies in military aircraft manufacturing to support the Air Force and alleviate pressure on Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) [3] Group 2 - The Indian Air Force plans to equip its existing Rafale fighter jets with the domestically produced Astra air-to-air missile, which has a range of 110 kilometers, compared to the 60 to 80 kilometers range of the previously used MICA missile [3]

Group 1: Economic and Trade - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50% for the third consecutive time, with concerns over the unpredictability of Trump's tariff policies being a major issue [4] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing that government debt is expected to reach 134% of GDP by 2035, leading to increased concerns over U.S. debt risks and a 0.8% drop in the dollar index [5] Group 2: Technology and Society - A new microorganism species named "Tian Gong Nier Jun" was discovered in samples collected by astronauts from the Chinese space station, marking a breakthrough in space life sciences [6] - The first "Mount Everest Dialogue" concluded in Nepal, where a Chinese scientist proposed establishing a cross-border disaster warning system due to significant glacier melting in the Tibetan Plateau, which has seen a 15% reduction in glacier area since the 20th century [7] Group 3: International Relations and Controversies - China's Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing is set to visit Russia to promote local cooperation in energy and agriculture, while another Vice Premier is attending the World Health Assembly in Switzerland [8] - Indonesia's purchase of 42 French "Rafale" fighter jets for $8.1 billion has raised performance concerns, with experts questioning the aircraft's effectiveness in complex electromagnetic environments [10]

大国制造- 关注机器人产业链 20250518 摘要 • 全球军工行业持续增长，2023 年全球前 100 强军工企业销售额达 6,320 亿美元，同比增长 4.2%，创历史新高，主要受地缘政治因素驱动，如乌 克兰危机和中东局势动荡，各国国防预算增加，对先进装备需求提升。 • 中国军工行业在技术突破和市场适配性提升的背景下，角色日益重要。 2024 年珠海航展成交各种型号飞机 1,195 架，总值 2,856 亿人民币，内 需和外贸驱动行业保持高景气度，应重点关注航天、出口和航空领域。 • 硅料供给侧改革有望提升硅料价格，龙头公司拟收储约 100 万吨硅料及产 能，若获国家支持，虽财务费用增加约 20 亿人民币，但将大幅改善龙头 公司现金流，建议关注通威等龙头公司，布局时点宜在 531 抢装需求下滑 后。 • 云厂商 2025 年二季度资本开支低于预期，受买卡成本上升和季度调整影 响，但算力调用量预计持续高速增长，AIDC 板块值得关注，液冷一次侧 压缩机细分领域或在三季度出现集中招标周期。 • 液冷技术正向磁悬浮或气悬浮离心机转型，以满足数据中心更高 PUE 值需 求。2025 年被认为是中美液冷技术元年， ...