说实话，最近的欧洲真是没有一天能安稳下来，简直是按下葫芦又起了瓢。无论是铁路遭到袭击、能源 供应危机，还是政坛不断动荡，种种问题接二连三地发生，仔细一看，背后似乎都与地缘政治博弈息息 相关。今天我们就来聊聊，欧洲大陆到底发生了什么，以及这些事情又如何与我们息息相关。 基础设 施遭遇破坏，混合战形势严峻 你有没有发现，现代战争的手段越来越不按常理出牌，专门挑一些软柿 子捏。就在上个周末，波兰的情况可不太妙——华沙到卢布林的关键铁路线被炸毁，整整一米长的铁轨 报废，附近的供电线路也被人为破坏。这可不是小打小闹，这条铁路不仅是波兰人民日常出行的主要交 通路线，更是帮助乌克兰获取援助的重要通道。许多乌克兰的武器、粮食等物资都需要通过这里运送。 波兰总理图斯克气得直拍桌子，直言这是前所未有的破坏，并誓言要找出幕后黑手。更巧合的是，斯洛 文尼亚也不安宁，近期发生了两起铁路事件，官方表示这绝不是疏忽，而是故意找茬。结合此前的无人 机乱飞、间谍事件，专家指出，这些问题背后可能是俄罗斯混合战争策略的升级。俄罗斯有一套名为格 拉西莫夫教义的战略手册，其中将混合战争分为8个阶段。现在看来，这些破坏行动已经进入了第5至第 6阶段，接 ...

当地时间17日，乌克兰总统泽连斯基在巴黎与法国总统马克龙举行的联合发布会上表示，乌克兰将能够从法国获 得8套SAMP-T防空系统、100架"阵风"战机、6套发射装置及雷达。 乌克兰和法国领导人当天还会见了两国防务企业代表，商讨技术合作的具体事项。泽连斯基表示，双方将合作提 升工业和技术潜力，这不仅涉及防务领域，也将带来就业机会并促进企业发展。此外，乌克兰还签署了从法国采 购55台新电力机车的协议，由乌克兰铁路公司与法国阿尔斯通公司签署。（总台记者 王晋燕） △法国总统马克龙与乌克兰总统泽连斯基举行会晤 泽连斯基说，当天签署的文件旨在显著增强乌克兰的防御能力。他指出，这些装备对乌方具有重要意义，并表示 双方达成的战略协议将自2026年起实施，为期10年。不过他表示，无法透露SAMP-T防空系统交付的具体日期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Belgium is facing public controversy over its procurement of 34 F-35 fighter jets from the United States, originally contracted in 2018 for a total price of €5.6 billion, with only 4 delivered so far and 1 delayed due to technical issues [1][3] Group 1: Procurement and Delivery Issues - The F-35 procurement contract was signed in 2018 for a total of €5.6 billion for 34 aircraft, with only 4 delivered to date and 1 delayed due to technical problems [1] - The high maintenance costs and operational challenges of the F-35 are raising concerns among Belgian officials and the public [3] Group 2: Training and Operational Challenges - Belgian Defense Minister Franke stated that the country's airspace is insufficient for conducting fighter jet training, necessitating collaboration with neighboring countries for airspace usage [3] - Belgian Air Force officials confirmed that the current airspace is too narrow for certain F-16 missions, indicating a need for continued complex exercises abroad [3] Group 3: Cost and Performance Comparisons - The operational cost of the F-35 is approximately €50,000 per flight hour, making it the most expensive operational fighter jet, with noise levels significantly higher than the F-16 [3] - French media have highlighted the advantages of the French "Rafale" fighter jet, claiming it has outperformed the F-35 in NATO simulated air combat last year and has lower operational costs [3]

Core Points - Germany is unwilling to concede decision-making power to France's Dassault Aviation in the development of the sixth-generation fighter jet project and may proceed without French participation if negotiations fail [1] - The project, known as the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), was initiated in 2017 and involves collaboration between France, Germany, and Spain to replace existing fighter jets [1] - Tensions have arisen between Dassault and Airbus, leading to project stagnation, with Dassault seeking greater control and Germany expressing frustration over perceived disregard for cooperation agreements [1] Group 1 - Germany's decision-making stance is firm, indicating a "take it or leave it" approach regarding the project's progression [1] - The FCAS project aims to replace the French Rafale and the Eurofighter Typhoon, which involves multiple European nations [1] - Dassault's CEO has stated the company's capability to independently develop the sixth-generation fighter jet without collaboration from other European countries [1] Group 2 - Historical context shows that France previously withdrew from a joint fighter jet project with Germany and Spain, leading to the development of the Rafale and Typhoon [1] - The ongoing disputes between Dassault and Airbus highlight significant challenges in multinational defense collaborations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dassault Aviation's CEO Eric Trappier stated that the company is capable of independently developing a sixth-generation fighter jet without collaboration from other European countries, emphasizing their technological expertise and past experience in the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Company Position and Capabilities - Trappier affirmed that Dassault has the knowledge and technology to manage the entire development process of a sixth-generation fighter jet, citing 70 years of proven capability [1]. - The CEO expressed a strong preference against collaborative decision-making on advanced aircraft technology, indicating a willingness to proceed independently if necessary [1]. Group 2: European Sixth-Generation Fighter Program - The European sixth-generation fighter project, known as the Future Combat Air System, was initiated in 2017 with France, Germany, and Spain collaborating to replace existing aircraft like the Rafale and Eurofighter [1]. - Tensions have arisen within the project, particularly between Dassault and Airbus, leading to stagnation. Dassault seeks greater control, while Germany is frustrated with France's disregard for cross-European cooperation [1]. - Airbus has expressed skepticism about the continuation of the project with Dassault, suggesting that it could proceed with other partners if necessary [2].

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's defense ministry has signaled a clear intention to procure Chinese-made J-10C fighter jets, reflecting a strategic decision by the national leadership [1] Group 1: Strategic Decision - The procurement plan for J-10C is part of a long-term defense strategy initiated by former Defense Minister and current President Prabowo Subianto, and is being continued by the new Defense Minister Prabowo Jamsoedin [1] - The plan aims to modernize Indonesia's military and align with the national strategic framework known as the Nusantara Trident Shield [1] Group 2: Current Air Force Situation - Indonesia's air force faces significant challenges, including an aging fleet with many F-16s being decades old and a lack of operational readiness due to parts shortages for Russian Su-27/30 aircraft [1] - The air force is tasked with protecting critical international waterways and maintaining military presence in various regions, which increases the urgency for modern aircraft [1] Group 3: Procurement Challenges - Indonesia previously signed an $8.1 billion contract for 42 French Rafale jets, but issues such as long delivery times and high operational costs have raised concerns [1] - The Rafale jets are expected to take until 2030 to achieve full operational capability, which does not address immediate needs [1] Group 4: Advantages of J-10C - The J-10C offers rapid delivery within 2-3 years, filling the capability gap effectively [6] - It has a competitive price, costing only one-third of the Rafale, with lower maintenance costs [6] - The aircraft features advanced technology, including an active electronically scanned array radar and PL-15 long-range missiles, providing a significant advantage in the Southeast Asian airspace [7] - China offers a complete supply chain and after-sales support, mitigating issues related to parts shortages seen with Russian equipment [7] Group 5: Conclusion on J-10C - Despite existing contracts for other aircraft, the J-10C remains the most viable option for Indonesia, balancing the need for advanced capabilities with immediate operational requirements [9] - The J-10C is viewed as an economically viable and reliable solution for Indonesia's defense needs [9]

Core Viewpoint - NATO has deployed three French "Rafale" fighter jets to Poland as part of the new operation "Eastern Sentinel" to enhance defense posture on the eastern flank [1] Group 1 - NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced the deployment of the "Eastern Sentinel" system to strengthen the defense capabilities on the eastern flank [1]

Core Insights - India plans to purchase 114 French Rafale fighter jets in September, amounting to a total of $22.6 billion, which would be the largest defense procurement in India's history [1] - In response, Bangladesh has decided to spend approximately $1 billion to acquire 12 Chinese J-10CE fighter jets, which previously outperformed the Rafale in a recent air conflict [1] - The military dynamics in South Asia may undergo significant changes over the next decade due to these developments [1]

Group 1 - The UK government has announced its participation in NATO's "Eastern Sentinel" military operation in Poland, joining forces from Denmark, France, and Germany [1] - Spain, Italy, and Sweden are also expected to support the operation, with Spanish support to be announced soon [1] - French "Rafale" fighter jets deployed to Poland are capable of carrying nuclear weapons, although they are not equipped with nuclear warheads for this mission [1] Group 2 - Poland's Foreign Minister Sikorski proposed establishing a no-fly zone over Ukraine to protect civilians from Russian drone threats, emphasizing the need for a collective decision among NATO allies [2] - Russian officials, including Dmitry Medvedev, strongly opposed the idea, stating that it would signify a war between NATO and Russia [2] Group 3 - Russian representatives criticized Poland for allegedly blaming Russia for the drone incident without evidence, suggesting that Poland's refusal to negotiate is a provocative act [3] - Russia's UN representative noted that Poland's claims of Russian aggression are part of a broader information war aimed at maintaining external support for Ukraine [5]

Core Insights - The Israeli Air Force conducted a precise airstrike on Doha, Qatar, revealing significant failures in Qatar's advanced air defense systems [1][3][4] - The incident has raised concerns about the effectiveness of Gulf states' air defense capabilities, particularly in the face of advanced fifth-generation fighter jets [3][4][6] Military Capabilities and Failures - Qatar has invested hundreds of billions in military modernization, including advanced aircraft like the Rafale and F-15QA, and a multi-layered air defense system [1][4] - Despite these investments, the air defense systems failed to detect the Israeli F-35I stealth fighters during the attack, exposing critical vulnerabilities [1][3] - The investigation revealed that the radar systems did not respond, and there was a lack of effective data integration among defense units [1][3][6] International Defense Market Impact - The failure of the Rafale aircraft to counter fifth-generation threats has caused a stir in the international arms market, particularly affecting France's defense contracts [4] - The Dassault Aviation team acknowledged that the Rafale's SPECTRA system has limited effectiveness against stealth targets, impacting ongoing defense projects [4] Strategic Responses and Future Considerations - Following the incident, Qatar is negotiating with China for the acquisition of J-35 stealth fighters and has approved a $5 billion budget for an independent air defense command system [6] - The event has prompted a reevaluation of modern air defense strategies, emphasizing the need for integrated systems rather than reliance on individual advanced platforms [6]