Group 1: Market Adjustment Overview - In September 2025, 20 stocks were added to and 20 stocks were removed from the Hong Kong Stock Connect, with 19 of the new additions matching prior predictions[9] - The average market capitalization of the stocks added was 246.5 billion HKD, with the highest being 445.6 billion HKD for Yaojie Ankang-B[7] - Prior to the adjustment, the added stocks experienced an average price increase of 16.30% over the previous month, 4.54% over the previous week, and 5.76% on the last trading day[10] Group 2: Stock Performance Analysis - The average price change on the adjustment day was -2.10%, followed by an average increase of 16.07% in the week after the adjustment[10] - Stocks added to the Connect outperformed their respective industry indices prior to the adjustment, with average relative returns of 10.84%, 1.94%, and 3.19% over the previous month, week, and day respectively[13] - The average relative return on the adjustment day was -3.02%, with a subsequent average return of 13.49% in the following week[13] Group 3: Future Projections - For March 2026, 17 stocks are projected to meet the Hong Kong Stock Connect eligibility criteria, with the lowest estimated market capitalization being 89.1 billion HKD[29] - An additional 29 stocks are close to meeting the criteria, with market capitalizations ranking between the 94th and 96th percentiles[31] - The analysis assumes that trading data from September to December will maintain August's average levels, which may affect future eligibility[29][31] Group 4: Risk Factors - Market capitalization ranking fluctuations pose a risk, as the assessment for March 2026 will consider a full 12-month period, potentially impacting the results[35] - Changes in liquidity ratios could affect stock eligibility, especially if significant changes in shareholding occur[35] - Regulatory changes regarding the inclusion criteria for the Hong Kong Stock Connect may also impact future adjustments[35]

Core Viewpoint - BOE Technology Group (京东方精电) has faced a significant decline in stock price following its removal from the Hang Seng Composite Index, with ongoing challenges in profitability and market conditions impacting its outlook [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of the year, BOE reported revenue of HKD 6.671 billion, an increase of approximately 8% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately HKD 180 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 5% [1] - The net profit margin for the company stands at 2.7% [1] Market Reaction - Following the announcement of its removal from the index, BOE's stock price dropped over 4%, closing at HKD 6.12 with a trading volume of HKD 73.1746 million [1] - Citigroup has downgraded its investment rating from "Buy" to "Sell," reducing the target price from HKD 7.4 to HKD 5.5, citing weak profit margins and slow recovery in business [1] Investment Outlook - The company is experiencing increased R&D investments in its automotive display systems and additional investments in its Vietnam factory, which have impacted profit growth [1] - Management anticipates continued inventory destocking pressure in the domestic market for the second half of the year, with no significant improvement expected in operating profit margins over the next two years [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jiamaojiu (09922) has experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping over 3% following the release of its mid-year results for 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the restaurant industry [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 2.753 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 10.1% [1] - The profit attributable to equity shareholders was 60.691 million yuan, down 16% compared to the previous year [1] Same-Store Sales - The same-store sales growth rates for the company's main brands were as follows: Taier at -19.0%, Song Hotpot at -20.1%, and Jiamaojiu at -19.8% [1] Store Closures - In the first half of the year, the company closed a net total of 88 stores, primarily due to the expiration of lease agreements and underperformance of certain restaurants [1] Analyst Revisions - Morgan Stanley has revised its earnings per share forecasts for Jiamaojiu for 2025 to 2027 down by 9%, 6%, and 10% respectively, reflecting weaker-than-expected demand year-to-date [1] - The target price has been adjusted from 2.3 HKD to 2.1 HKD, maintaining a "Reduce" rating [1] Market Impact - The company is expected to face selling pressure in the short term due to its removal from the Hang Seng Composite Index effective September 8, which will exclude it from the Hong Kong Stock Connect program [1] - As of August 22, southbound funds held 311.7 million shares, accounting for 22.3% of the total share capital and 44.4% of the free float [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments to the Hang Seng Index and its implications for investors, highlighting the inclusion and exclusion of specific stocks and the expected capital flows resulting from these changes [2][3][5]. Group 1: Hang Seng Index Adjustments - The Hang Seng Index has included China Telecom, JD Logistics, and Pop Mart, with respective weights of 1.44%, 0.51%, and 0.22%, increasing the total number of constituent stocks to 88 [3]. - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has added Pop Mart with a weight of 2.10%, while Jitu Express has been removed, maintaining the total number of constituent stocks at 50 [3]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index saw no changes, keeping its 30 constituent stocks unchanged [3]. Group 2: Capital Flow Implications - For the Hang Seng Index, the expected capital inflows from the newly included stocks are approximately $160 million for China Telecom, $68.74 million for JD Logistics, and $45 million for Pop Mart, with respective inflow durations of 4.4 days, 3.5 days, and 1.0 day [3]. - The potential capital outflow from China Bank due to weight changes could reach $12 million, with an outflow duration of about 0.6 days [3]. - In the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Pop Mart is expected to bring in $15 million, with an inflow duration of approximately 0.3 days, while Jitu Express may see an outflow of about $4.993 million over 1.2 days [4]. Group 3: Hong Kong Stock Connect Adjustments - The article anticipates 20 new stocks to be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, with 19 stocks likely to be removed, aligning closely with previous predictions [5]. - The potential new additions include companies such as China Foods, Caocao Travel, and Nanshan Aluminum International, while removals include companies like Xirui and Youkang Vision [5]. Group 4: Implementation Timeline - The adjustments will be implemented on September 5 and will officially take effect on September 8, with passive funds expected to rebalance their portfolios on the implementation date, leading to significant trading volume increases [7].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index will announce its semi-annual review results on August 22, 2025, affecting major indices such as the Hang Seng Index, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and the Hang Seng Tech Index, with changes effective from September 8, 2025 [1] - Several brokerages, including UBS, Huatai Securities, and CICC, have released reports predicting adjustments to the Hang Seng Index and potential candidates for inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [1][2] - CICC highlights the significant size of passive funds tracking flagship indices, with ETF sizes for the Hang Seng Index, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and the Hang Seng Tech Index being approximately $30.35 billion, $6.63 billion, and $26.12 billion respectively, indicating substantial potential fund flows due to component changes [1] Group 2 - CICC estimates that potential candidates for inclusion in the Hang Seng Index include Bank of Communications (03328), Pop Mart (09992), Yum China (09987), XPeng Motors (09868), Huazhu Group (01179), JD Logistics (02618), and Innovent Biologics (01801) [1][2] - UBS predicts that stocks likely to be included in the Hang Seng Index are WuXi AppTec (02268), Pop Mart, JD Logistics, Kingsoft (03888), and Bank of Communications, while Pop Mart is also expected to be included in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index [2] Group 3 - Companies such as Cao Cao Travel (02643), InnoCare Pharma (09606), and Zhou Liu Fu (06168) are expected to be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which connects Hong Kong-listed companies with mainland investors [3] - CICC estimates that 19 stocks meet the criteria for inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, including Cao Cao Travel, InnoCare Pharma, Zhou Liu Fu, and others [3][4] - UBS forecasts potential candidates for the Hong Kong Stock Connect based on the Hang Seng Composite Index predictions, including East Asia Bank, InnoCare Pharma-B, Blue Moon Group, and others [3] Group 4 - Huatai Securities also anticipates that 19 stocks may be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, with a list that includes Yunzhisheng, InnoCare Pharma-B, and others [4] - Historical data indicates that newly included stocks in the Hong Kong Stock Connect tend to outperform the market, while stocks removed from the index face significant capital outflows [4]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index Company will announce the semi-annual review results of the Hang Seng series indices on August 22, 2025, with changes effective from September 8, 2025 [1] - Major brokerages, including UBS, Huatai Securities, and CICC, have released reports predicting adjustments to the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Composite Index [1][2] - CICC highlights the significant scale of passive funds tracking flagship indices, with ETF sizes for the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Technology Index being approximately $30.35 billion, $6.63 billion, and $26.12 billion respectively [1] Group 2 - Potential candidates for inclusion in the Hang Seng Index include Bank of Communications, Pop Mart, Yum China, XPeng Motors, Huazhu Group, JD Logistics, and Innovent Biologics [1][2] - UBS predicts that stocks likely to be included as blue-chip stocks are WuXi AppTec, Pop Mart, JD Logistics, Kingsoft, and Bank of Communications [2] - Historical data indicates that actual results of the Hang Seng Index's quarterly reviews may differ significantly from predictions based on market capitalization rankings [2] Group 3 - Companies such as Cao Cao Travel, InnoCare Pharma, and Chow Tai Fook are expected to be included in the Stock Connect list, which connects Hong Kong-listed companies with mainland investors [3] - CICC estimates that 19 stocks meet the criteria for inclusion in the Stock Connect, including Cao Cao Travel, InnoCare Pharma, and Nanshan Aluminum [3][4] - UBS forecasts potential additions to the Stock Connect list, including East Asia Bank, InnoCare Pharma-B, and Blue Moon Group [3] Group 4 - Huatai Securities also anticipates that 19 stocks may be added to the Stock Connect, including Yunzhisheng, Huiju Technology, and InnoCare Pharma-B [4] - Historical performance shows that newly included stocks in the Stock Connect tend to outperform the Hang Seng Index during the adjustment period, while stocks removed from the index face significant outflows [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index Company will announce the results of the Hang Seng series index adjustments on August 22, 2025, with implementation on September 8, 2025. Potential candidates for inclusion include Bank of Communications, Pop Mart, Yum China, Xpeng Motors, Huazhu Group, JD Logistics, and Innovent Biologics, based on market capitalization and industry representation [1][2][3]. Group 1: Index Adjustment Details - The semi-annual review will affect major indices such as the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index, with significant changes expected due to the large scale of passive funds tracking these indices, estimated at approximately $30.35 billion for the Hang Seng Index, $6.63 billion for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and $26.12 billion for the Hang Seng Tech Index [2][6]. - The adjustment will be based on a new calculation method for the average market capitalization over the past 12 months, focusing on non-suspended trading days, which may impact the inclusion and exclusion of stocks [4][5]. Group 2: Potential Candidates for Inclusion - The potential candidates for inclusion in the Hang Seng Index are estimated based on market capitalization rankings and industry representation, with the following companies identified: Bank of Communications, Pop Mart, Yum China, Xpeng Motors, Huazhu Group, JD Logistics, and Innovent Biologics [3][4]. - Historical data indicates that predictions for index inclusion may not always align with actual results, as seen with Innovent Biologics in previous adjustments, suggesting that non-quantitative factors may influence final decisions [3]. Group 3: Hong Kong Stock Connect Adjustments - An estimated 19 companies are expected to be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, while 17 may be removed due to market capitalization and other criteria [4][5]. - Companies listed in both A and H shares may be directly included in the Stock Connect after a price stabilization period, with recent listings such as Sanhua Intelligent Controls and others expected to join [5]. Group 4: Timeline and Trading Implications - The official announcement of the index adjustments will occur after market close on August 22, 2025, with the changes taking effect on September 8, 2025. Active funds may engage in arbitrage based on the results, while passive funds will likely adjust their holdings on September 5, leading to potential abnormal trading volumes [1][6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming semi-annual review results of the Hang Seng Index series, which will be announced on August 22, 2025, and the potential adjustments to the index constituents that could impact significant passive fund flows [1]. Group 1: Hang Seng Index Adjustments - Potential candidates for inclusion in the Hang Seng Index include Bank of Communications, Pop Mart, Yum China, XPeng Motors, Huazhu Group, JD Logistics, and Innovent Biologics, based on market capitalization and industry representation [2]. - Historical data indicates that actual results may differ significantly from predictions based on market capitalization rankings, as non-quantitative factors may influence the final decisions [2]. Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Connect Adjustments - An estimated 19 companies are expected to be added to the Hong Kong Stock Connect, while 17 may be removed, influenced by the recent changes in the calculation method for average market capitalization [3]. - The new method for calculating average market capitalization now considers the average market value on non-suspended trading days, which may affect the eligibility of certain stocks [3]. Group 3: Inclusion and Exclusion Criteria - The criteria for inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect require companies to meet specific market capitalization thresholds and other conditions, such as being listed for at least six months and having a market cap above HKD 5 billion [4]. - Companies that do not meet the criteria, such as those with market caps below HKD 4 billion or those that are suspended, may be excluded from the Stock Connect [4]. Group 4: Timeline and Market Impact - The official results of the index adjustments will be announced on August 22, 2025, and will take effect on September 8, 2025, with subsequent adjustments to the investable universe for the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges [5]. - Following the announcement, there may be significant trading volume spikes as active funds may engage in arbitrage, while passive funds will likely adjust their holdings to minimize tracking errors [5]. Group 5: ETF Fund Sizes - The article provides data on the sizes of ETFs tracking the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index, with total assets of approximately USD 30.353 billion, USD 6.629 billion, and USD 26.119 billion respectively [6].

Core Insights - The report predicts that the Hang Seng Index will announce its second-quarter component stock review on August 22, 2025, with changes effective from September 8, 2025, impacting the Hong Kong Stock Connect [3] - It is anticipated that 20 stocks will gain eligibility for the Hong Kong Stock Connect, while 13 stocks may lose their eligibility [3] - The report highlights that companies listed in both A and H shares can enter the Hong Kong Stock Connect quickly, with Hai Tian Wei Ye (3288.HK) and Sanhua Intelligent Control (2050.HK) expected to be included in July [3] Selection Criteria - The selection criteria for the Hang Seng Composite Index include market capitalization and trading volume, with a focus on the top 95% of stocks based on average market capitalization over the past 12 months [3] - Stocks listed for less than 12 months will be ranked based on their average market capitalization since listing, while new entrants must meet slightly higher standards [3] - The trading volume requirement mandates that stocks must meet a minimum liquidity threshold for at least 10 months in the past year [3] Potential Inclusions and Exclusions - A list of potential stocks for inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect includes: - Ying En Biological-B (9606.HK) with a market cap of 24.42 billion HKD - Nanshan Aluminum International (2610.HK) with a market cap of 23.81 billion HKD - Blue Moon Group (6993.HK) with a market cap of 23.80 billion HKD - Others include Cao Cao Chuxing (2643.HK), Kangnai Optical (2276.HK), and more [4] - Stocks that may be excluded from the Hong Kong Stock Connect include: - China Oriental Group (0581.HK) with a market cap of 5.66 billion HKD - Jin Di Commercial Property (0535.HK) with a market cap of 5.32 billion HKD - Others include Zhou Hei Ya (1458.HK), and more [4]