Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a strong rebound on February 23, with major indices rising significantly, including the Hang Seng Index up by 2.53% to 27,081.91 points and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 3.34% to 5,385.35 points [1] - Various sectors showed broad-based gains, with notable performances in metals, automotive, hardware, electrical equipment, consumer discretionary retail, and chemicals, which were key drivers of the market's upward movement [1] - Major internet stocks also performed well, with Tencent Holdings increasing by 3.07% and Alibaba rising by 3.47% [1] Group 2 - Analysts from Suzhou Securities indicated that the primary driver behind the Hong Kong market's rebound was improved expectations regarding external policies, particularly adjustments in U.S. tariff policies, which could enhance profit expectations for Chinese export-oriented, technology, and consumer companies [1] - The rebound in the Hong Kong market was also in line with the overall trends in global capital markets [1] - Several local Suzhou stocks performed exceptionally well during this rebound, including Zhixing Technology, which surged by 13.3%, and semiconductor company InnoCare, which rose by 10.07%, along with over ten local biopharmaceutical stocks showing strong performance [1] Group 3 - Overall, the Hong Kong market showed an upward trend during the three trading days while the A-share market was closed, with the Hang Seng Index accumulating a rise of 1.94% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.47% [2] - Following the positive start in the Hong Kong market, it is expected that the A-share market will likely open higher after the holiday [2] - Sectors such as AI applications, robotics, and media are anticipated to remain active in the upcoming trading sessions [2]

今日，冰火两重天！ A股三大指数全线上涨，录得马年首日开门红，然而港股绿意盎然，恒生科技指数跌逾2%，再度逼近技术性熊市。 隔夜美股科技股再遭暴击，道指、标普500和纳指均跌逾1%，标普直接回吐今年所有涨幅，纳指年内下跌2.64%，与恒科并列全球倒数。 (本文内容均为客观数据信息罗列，不构成任何投资建议） 仔细一看，美股内部悄悄上演一轮大小盘风格切换。 | 俄罗斯卢布 | 2.87 | | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 2.85 | | 欧洲国债 | 2.179 | | 德国DAX | 2.059 | | MSCI发达市场 | 1.969 | | 全球国债 | 1.849 | | 日本国债 | 1.719 | | 美国国债 | 1.29% | | 亚洲美元债 | 1.13% | | 人民币 | 1.12% | | 日元 | 0.98% | | 中国国债 | 0.71% | | 沪深300 | 0.66% | | 俄罗斯MOEX | 0.51% | | 英镑 | 0.22% | | 欧元 | -0.08% | | 标普500 | -0.11% | | 美元指数 | -0.54% | | 恒生科技 | ...

Market Performance - During the week from February 16 to February 20, the Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations with the Hang Seng Index declining by 0.58% to 26,413.25 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 2.78% to 511.50 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreasing by 0.81% to 8,959.56 points [1][6][30] - Among the primary sectors, 8 sectors saw gains while 3 sectors experienced losses. The energy, materials, and industrial sectors had the highest increases, rising by 3.65%, 2.27%, and 1.03% respectively. Conversely, the consumer discretionary, consumer staples, and communication services sectors faced the largest declines, dropping by 1.86%, 1.50%, and 0.13% respectively [1][7][30] Market Liquidity - Due to the Spring Festival holiday, the Hong Kong stock market only operated for half a day on February 16, with a trading volume of HKD 850.56 billion. On February 20, the trading volume was HKD 1,654.61 billion, which is lower than the previous week's average daily trading volume of HKD 2,406.43 billion. The short-selling amount was HKD 237.27 billion, accounting for 14.43%, significantly higher than the previous week's average of 12.56% [2][13][15] Valuation and Risk Premium - As of February 20, 2026, the PE and PB ratios of the Hang Seng Index were 12.09 times and 1.23 times, respectively, placing them at the 79% and 55% percentiles since 2010. The Hang Seng Tech Index had PE and PB ratios of 21.51 times and 2.83 times, respectively, at the 18% and 49% percentiles since 2010 [3][17][22] - The risk premium of the Hang Seng Index was calculated at 4.19%, which is at the 5% percentile since 2010, while the risk premium based on the 10-year Chinese government bond yield was 6.48%, at the 42% percentile since 2010 [3][19][21] Investment Outlook - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, which may lead to increased volatility in energy and precious metals sectors. The U.S. is exerting pressure on Iran, with potential military actions being considered [4][9][30] - The consumer sector is currently valued relatively low, and with increasing consumer promotion policies, there is potential for growth in this sector [4][30] - The technology sector remains a long-term investment focus, with reduced valuation pressure following recent corrections, and is expected to rebound due to accelerated AI model updates and applications [4][30]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the narrowing of the AH premium, highlighting the significant reduction in the discount rate for companies listed in both A-shares and H-shares, particularly noting Dongpeng Beverage's recent listing as having the second-lowest discount rate since 2015 [1][4]. Group 1: AH Premium Dynamics - Dongpeng Beverage's H-share discount rate at 14% is significantly lower than the average of approximately 33% since 2015 [1]. - The overall AH premium index has decreased from a near ten-year high of 161.36 points in February 2024 to 119.44 points by February 2026, returning to levels seen in 2019 [1]. - The narrowing of the AH premium is attributed to improved liquidity in the Hong Kong market, driven by increased participation from southbound funds, a weak dollar environment, and improved profitability in Hong Kong stocks [3][4]. Group 2: Southbound Fund Influence - Southbound funds have become a stabilizing force in narrowing the AH premium, with their market participation exceeding 30% in August 2025 [4]. - In 2025, net inflows from southbound funds reached a record high of 1.4 trillion HKD, with over 120 billion HKD net inflows recorded by February 2026 [4]. - The influx of southbound funds has improved liquidity in the Hong Kong market, reducing the liquidity gap between A-shares and H-shares [4]. Group 3: Valuation Disparities - Some leading companies have experienced a phenomenon where H-share prices exceed A-share prices, known as "premium inversion," with notable examples including CATL and China Merchants Bank [5][6]. - The preference of foreign investors for globally competitive stocks leads to higher valuations for certain companies, impacting the AH premium [6]. - The valuation divergence between large-cap leading stocks and smaller-cap stocks reflects a "Matthew Effect," where larger companies attract more investment and liquidity [7][10]. Group 4: Market Structure Changes - The article notes that the AH premium is influenced by sector-specific dynamics, with significant variations observed across industries [10]. - The introduction of new listing rules allowing growth companies to list in Hong Kong may further alter the perception of AH premiums [11]. - The potential expansion of the dual-counter model allowing mainland investors to trade Hong Kong stocks in RMB could further narrow the valuation discount between A-shares and H-shares [11].

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that in Q4 2025, the allocation of Hong Kong stocks by actively managed equity public funds has decreased, with a decline in the proportion of funds overweighting Hong Kong stocks [1][10] - The total size of actively managed equity public funds eligible to invest in Hong Kong stocks in Q4 2025 is 20,356 billion, accounting for 52.2% of the total actively managed equity fund size, down from 52.4% in Q3 2025 [10] - The market value of Hong Kong heavy stocks held by actively managed equity public funds in Q4 2025 is 3,121 billion, which is a decrease from 3,950 billion in Q3 2025 [10][11] Group 2 - In terms of industry allocation, actively managed equity public funds have increased their exposure to cyclical financial sectors while reducing exposure to technology and consumer sectors in Q4 2025 [2][19] - The sectors with increased allocation include non-ferrous metals (6.8%, up 2.3 percentage points), non-bank financials (5.1%, up 3.2 percentage points), and oil and petrochemicals (3.5%, up 2.1 percentage points) [19][26] - The sectors with reduced allocation include consumer discretionary retail (11.0%, down 2.2 percentage points), hardware equipment (3.0%, down 2.0 percentage points), and semiconductors (7.6%, down 2.0 percentage points) [19][26] Group 3 - The concentration of the top ten heavy stocks held by actively managed equity public funds has decreased, with their combined holding percentage in Q4 2025 being 49.7%, down from 54.0% in Q3 2025 [3][28] - The top three heavy stocks remain consistent with Q3 2025, including Tencent Holdings (holding size of 578 billion, accounting for 18.5%), Alibaba (310 billion, 10.0%), and SMIC (187 billion, 6.0%) [3][28]

Core Insights - The report predicts that 45 stocks are likely to qualify for the Hong Kong Stock Connect in March 2026, following the review of the Hang Seng Index series on February 13, 2026 [3] - The report highlights that companies listed under the A+H structure can enter the Stock Connect more quickly, unaffected by the timing of the Hang Seng Index adjustments [3] Selection Criteria - The selection criteria for the Hang Seng Composite Index include two main conditions: market capitalization and trading volume. Only securities in the top 95% by average daily market capitalization over the past 12 months qualify for further volume criteria selection [5] - For new entrants, the market capitalization requirement is slightly higher at 94%, while the threshold for stocks being removed is relaxed to 96% [5] - The report estimates that the minimum average market capitalization requirement for inclusion has risen to approximately HKD 9.2 billion due to strong market performance over the past three quarters [5] Potential Adjustments - The report lists potential stocks for inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, including JD Industrial (HKD 37.31 billion), Innovation Industry (HKD 36.71 billion), and East Asia Bank (HKD 31.31 billion) [6] - It also identifies 22 stocks that may be removed from the Stock Connect, with the lowest average market capitalization among these being HKD 5.08 billion [6] - The report notes that existing investors can choose to hold or sell stocks that are removed from the Stock Connect, but cannot buy more until the stocks are re-included [5][6] Companies Under Review - The report identifies five companies currently under review for inclusion in the Stock Connect after their observation period, including DJI Technology (market cap HKD 42.79 billion) and Hesai Technology (market cap HKD 34.23 billion) [7]

Group 1 - Since September 2024, the proportion of southbound capital in transaction volume has rapidly increased to 20%-30%, nearly doubling compared to before 2024, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [3][8] - Historical reviews of two rounds of competition for pricing power in the Hong Kong stock market occurred in 2016-2017 and 2020-2021, typically initiated by policy optimizations and inflows of incremental capital [15][28] - The current southbound capital inflow is characterized by a higher proportion of medium to long-term funds, with insurance capital making 41 stakes in 2025, 35 of which were in H-shares, marking a record high in the past decade [3][31] Group 2 - The industries where southbound capital and Chinese capital have pricing power include semiconductors and dividend-paying sectors, while industries lacking pricing power include internet, hardware, software services, home appliances, and media [3][36] - The top five industries by southbound capital holdings include coal (41.8%), semiconductors (32.7%), environmental protection (24.5%), oil and petrochemicals (24.1%), and pharmaceutical biology (20.5%) [37] - The active management public funds have a low preference for Hong Kong stocks, with significant holdings concentrated in AI-related CSP giants, electronics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [46] Group 3 - The current sentiment in the Hong Kong stock market has fully reflected negative factors such as US-China trade friction and the high unlock peak at the end of last year, suggesting potential upward investment opportunities if liquidity pressure eases [53][54] - The spring rally in the Hong Kong stock market has a high probability of success, with southbound capital and foreign capital expected to net inflow at the beginning of the year, driven by the demand for core Chinese assets [53][54] - The pricing power of southbound capital is rapidly increasing, with expectations of a potential upward beta in the Hong Kong stock market at the beginning of the year [3][53]

Group 1 - The report from Galaxy Securities indicates that the expectation for a short-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has decreased, and global geopolitical uncertainties are increasing, leading to a forecast of narrow fluctuations in the Hong Kong stock market [1] - The technology sector is highlighted as a long-term investment focus, benefiting from multiple positive factors such as price increases in the supply chain, domestic substitution, and accelerated AI applications [1] - The consumer sector is expected to continue benefiting from policy support, with future attention needed on the implementation of policies and improvements in consumer data [1] Group 2 - In the past week, the Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.34%, the Hang Seng Tech Index by 2.37%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 1.90% [2] - Among the primary industries, nine sectors increased while two decreased, with materials, consumer staples, and information technology leading the gains at 4.31%, 3.91%, and 3.60% respectively [2] - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 301.69 billion, an increase of HKD 28.58 billion from the previous week [2] Group 3 - As of January 16, 2026, the PE and PB ratios of the Hang Seng Index were 12.20 times and 1.24 times, respectively, reflecting increases of 0.44% and 0.52% from the previous week [3] - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index is at 3.95%, which is significantly below the three-year rolling average, indicating a low-risk appetite among investors [3] - The premium index for the Hong Kong-Shanghai Stock Connect has decreased to 120.43, placing it at the 17th percentile level since 2014 [3]

Core Insights - The report predicts an upcoming adjustment to the Hong Kong Stock Connect list in March 2026, with the announcement expected on February 20, 2026, and implementation on March 6, 2026 [1][6]. Group 1: Event Description - The adjustment period for the Hang Seng Composite Index ended on December 31, 2025, and the new list of stocks for the Hong Kong Stock Connect will be released shortly [6][7]. Group 2: Potential Stocks for Inclusion - A total of 47 stocks are expected to meet the criteria for inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect. The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has a significant representation among these potential stocks, including names such as: - **Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology**: 英矽智能, 中慧生物-B, 宝济药业-B, 派格生物医药-B, 劲方医药-B, 轩竹生物-B, 康臣药业, 科济药业-B, 海西新药, 长风药业, 维立志博-B, 林清轩, 歌礼制药-B [7]. - **Software Services**: 经纬天地, 希迪智驾, 卓越睿新, 诺比侃, 赤子城科技, 量化派, 迅策, 聚水潭, 果下科技, 五一视界, HASHKEY HLDGS, 卧安机器人, 滴普科技 [7]. - **Non-Bank Financials**: OSL Group, 耀才证券金融, 轻松健康, 国富量子 [7]. - Other sectors include metals, hardware, banking, automotive, consumer retail, household goods, appliances, machinery, defense, industrial trade, utilities, and medical devices [7]. Group 3: Performance Expectations - Stocks that are about to be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect are expected to perform strongly. Historical backtesting shows that stocks included in the Connect tend to exhibit significant excess returns before and after their inclusion, particularly with the anticipated continued inflow of southbound capital [8].

Group 1 - Northbound capital is estimated to have a slight net inflow of 3.7 billion yuan in the recent week, compared to a net outflow of 18.3 billion yuan in the previous week [7] - The top active stocks in the northbound trading include Zhongji Xuchuang with a total transaction amount of 20.5 billion yuan, accounting for 9% of the stock's weekly trading volume [7] - The recent week saw a significant net inflow of flexible foreign capital estimated at 6.6 billion yuan, reversing the previous week's outflow of 7.7 billion yuan [7] Group 2 - Southbound capital inflow into e-commerce retail reached a new high since October, with a total of 27.1 billion Hong Kong dollars flowing into the Hong Kong stock market in the recent week [11] - Stable foreign capital saw an outflow of 12.2 billion Hong Kong dollars, while flexible foreign capital experienced an outflow of 7.5 billion Hong Kong dollars [11] - The inflow from Hong Kong or mainland local funds was 6.1 billion Hong Kong dollars, indicating a diverse source of capital inflow [11] Group 3 - In the Asia-Pacific market, foreign capital saw a net outflow from Japan amounting to 403.2 billion yen in the latest week, contrasting with a net inflow of 521.9 billion yen in the previous week [20] - In India, foreign institutional investors injected 1.66 billion US dollars into the stock market in October, reversing a previous outflow of 2.7 billion US dollars [20] Group 4 - In the US and European markets, global mutual fund capital saw a net inflow of 25.5 billion US dollars into the US equity market in September, compared to a net inflow of 3.6 billion US dollars in the previous month [23] - The European equity markets experienced mixed results, with net inflows of 1.8 billion US dollars in Germany and 16.9 billion US dollars in France, while the UK saw a slight outflow of 0.4 million US dollars [23]