（文章来源：第一财经） 据报道，日本央行审议委员小枝淳子表示，必须使利率正常化，以避免未来造成扭曲；潜在通胀率目前 约为2%，得益于日本近期经济指标总体稳健、劳动力市场状况紧张以及供需平衡基本恢复正常。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the upcoming monetary policy meeting on September 16-17, with expectations for further cuts in the next three to six months depending on forthcoming data [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Waller believes the potential inflation rate in the U.S. is nearing the Fed's long-term target of 2%, supporting an immediate rate cut due to stable long-term inflation expectations and increasing likelihood of labor market weakness [1] - Waller previously voted against maintaining the interest rate at the last FOMC meeting in late July, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Waller suggests that the Fed should "ignore" the impact of tariffs on inflation, anticipating that their effects are temporary [1]

日本央行行长植田和男：潜在通胀率正逐步向2%目标迈进。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：潜在通胀率仍低于2%，但正在逐步上升。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the silver market is experiencing a slight pullback after a previous increase, with current trading at $36.87 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.12% [1] - The Australian economy shows signs of uncertainty, with nearly 90% of economists predicting a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia, despite some economists being less certain [2] - Independent economist Saul Eslake suggests that the current inflation rate is below the target midpoint, indicating that there is no need for a restrictive monetary policy given the low economic growth [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis of the London silver market shows that after a strong rally, there is a demand for upward movement, with today's high opening at $37.25 and targets set at $36.9 and $36.7 for the downside [2] - Key support levels for silver are identified at $36.85 and $36.70, while resistance levels are noted at $37.20 and $37.60 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that interest rates will be raised if there is sufficient confidence that the potential inflation rate is close to or fluctuating around 2% [1] Summary by Categories - **Monetary Policy** - The Bank of Japan is considering raising interest rates based on confidence in inflation rates [1] - **Inflation Outlook** - A potential inflation rate near 2% is a key factor for the Bank of Japan's decision-making process regarding interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that interest rates may be raised if there is sufficient confidence that the potential inflation rate is close to or fluctuating around 2% [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring inflation trends to determine future monetary policy actions [1] - A potential interest rate hike is contingent upon achieving a stable inflation rate near the target of 2% [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is cautious about rising food prices potentially increasing the underlying inflation rate, which is close to its 2% target [1][2] - BOJ Governor Ueda indicated that inflation expectations are between 1.5% and 2%, the highest in 30 years, prompting the bank to maintain low interest rates despite rising food prices, particularly a 90% surge in rice prices [2] - Ueda mentioned that the impact of food price inflation is expected to diminish, but the proximity of underlying inflation to the 2% target necessitates careful monitoring of food price inflation's effects [2] Group 2 - The BOJ is closely monitoring economic risks from U.S. tariff increases and domestic inflation pressures to determine when to resume interest rate hikes [2] - Despite lowering forecasts due to trade policy uncertainties, the BOJ expects the core inflation rate to gradually approach the 2% target in the latter half of the forecast period (FY2027) [2] - Ueda stated that if new data increases confidence in the baseline scenario, the BOJ will adjust the degree of monetary easing through interest rate hikes as necessary [2] Group 3 - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently trading around 143.90, down 0.15% from the previous close of 144.12, indicating limited upward momentum in the daily technical indicators [1][2] - If the USD/JPY fails to break above 145.00 and sustain upward movement, there is a risk of a pullback, especially if it drops below the support range of 144.00–143.65, potentially testing 143.00 or even the monthly low of 142.10 [2]

Core Insights - A member of the Bank of Japan expressed concerns about the risk of price increases if global supply chains are disrupted [1] - Another member indicated that, in the long term, the uncertainty stemming from U.S. tariff policies may not significantly impact Japan's potential inflation rate and growth rate [1]