大行晨報 - 澳元有望再上試年內高位 - 2025 年 11 月 20 日星島日報 / 頭條日報 https://www.stheadline.com/columnists/finance- property/3519444/%E5%A4%A7%E8%A1%8C%E6%99%A8%E5%A0%B1- %E6%BE%B3%E5%85%83%E6%9C%89%E6%9C%9B%E5%86%8D%E4%B8%8A%E8%A9%A6%E5%B9%B4 %E5%85%A7%E9%AB%98%E4%BD%8D%E5%A4%A7%E8%A1%8C%E6%99%A8%E5%A0%B1 ...

在澳元汇率持续走强之际，宏观对冲基金正加大对其升值潜力的押注。交易员透露，多家基金公司近期 增持了澳元看涨期权合约，这些合约将在澳元兑主要货币继续走强时获得收益。 美国存托信托与清算公司(DTCC)的数据显示，上周澳元兑美元期权出现了自7月末以来交易最活跃的两 个交易日。在这两天中，看涨期权成交量达到看跌期权的三倍，且单笔交易规模达1.5亿澳元(约合1亿 美元)及以上的交易频繁出现。而与此同时，澳元兑美元汇率也触及了自去年11月以来的最高水平。 宏观基金对澳元的押注并非仅针对美元。目前，澳元兑其他十国集团货币也已攀升至数月来的高点。 受加拿大经济增长乏力及劳动力数据疲软影响，澳元兑加元汇率升至去年11月以来的最高水平。这些数 据使得交易员上调了对加拿大央行在9月17日会议上降息25个基点的预期概率。DTCC的数据显示，在 上周澳元期权交易最活跃的日子之一，澳元兑加元汇率中，所有单笔规模超过5000万澳元的交易均为看 涨期权。 此外，在瑞士央行行长马丁.施莱格尔释放"必要时将毫不犹豫把利率调回零以下"的信号后，澳元兑瑞 士法郎汇率也创下了自6月中旬以来的新高。 花旗驻悉尼的澳大利亚及新西兰外汇销售主管Troy ...

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has surged to over 65 cents against the US dollar, marking a five-month high and the first time since early December last year [2] - The recent Australian election resulted in a significant victory for Albanese's Labor Party, securing 87 parliamentary seats and indicating strong public trust in the party [3][4] - The election outcome signals the end of political uncertainty in Australia, providing policy support for the AUD [5] Group 2 - Economic data supports the strength of the AUD, with the TD-MI inflation index rising 0.6% month-on-month in April, marking the second consecutive month of increase [7] - The annual inflation index increased to 3.3%, up from 2.8% previously [8] - The Judo Bank composite PMI for April stood at 51.0, indicating economic expansion for the seventh consecutive month [9] Group 3 - The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have created market volatility, but recent indications of trade negotiations have improved market sentiment [11][14] - Any positive developments in US-China trade relations are likely to bolster the AUD due to Australia's close trade ties with China [17][22] - China's recent economic stimulus measures, including a 0.5 percentage point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, are expected to enhance demand for Australian exports, further supporting the AUD [19][20] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates without changes reflects growing economic risks in the US, which may lead to a decline in the US dollar [23][26] - Concerns over the US economic outlook and potential political issues could trigger a sell-off of the US dollar, making the AUD more attractive to investors [28][30] - The strong Australian consumer inflation data has led to expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia, but it also supports the AUD by reducing expectations for aggressive rate cuts [31][32] Group 5 - The political stability and economic recovery in Australia, combined with supportive external factors, suggest a positive outlook for the AUD [33][34] - The AUD is expected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by optimism regarding US-China trade relations and increased demand from China for Australian commodities [36][37]