文︱陆弃 在白宫，特朗普怒火中烧。在美联储，鲍威尔一言不改。 7月30日，美联储如期维持联邦基金利率在4.25%至4.50%区间不变，连续第五次拒绝降 息；7月31日，特朗普在社交平台上再度爆发，直斥鲍威尔是"最糟糕的美联储主席"，并公开承认任命他是一个"重大错误"。这是一次罕见的政治人 物与央行领导人之间的正面碰撞，也是一场关于权力、通胀与选票的危险博弈。 问题在于，美联储不是白宫的提款机。 即便是在美国政体日益政治化的今天，美联储独立性仍被视为资本市场最后的底线。如果货币政策沦为选举 工具，美元信用、债券稳定、国际资本流向将全线失控。鲍威尔心知肚明，他此刻不是在与特朗普对抗，而是在与美元的根基对话。一旦在此刻投 降于政治压力，哪怕是象征性降息，都可能引发全球对美联储独立性的质疑，从而掀起金融系统性风险。这不是一场单纯的"利率之争"，而是一场 货币话语权的保卫战。 特朗普并不是第一次对美联储动怒，但这一次的愤怒更具现实压力和政治急迫。 距离大选仅剩数月，他急需一场经济繁荣来装点选情。而利率政 策，是他最希望操控的杠杆。高利率意味着消费紧缩、信贷收缩、房地产市场冻结、企业投资观望，整个经济的流动性被钳制。对一 ...

Core Points - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced construction, marking a significant milestone for both Beijing and Tibet's Nyingchi region [1] - The project involves an investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan and aims to build five hydropower stations with a total installed capacity of 70 to 81 million kilowatts, which is equivalent to three Three Gorges projects [3][4] - The expected annual electricity generation of the project is around 300 billion kilowatt-hours, which is three times that of the Three Gorges Dam, positioning it as one of the largest power projects globally [3][4] Economic Impact - The project is projected to boost China's GDP by approximately 0.1 percentage points in its first year, with an estimated annual contribution of about 120 billion yuan over its 10-year construction period [4] - The construction is anticipated to provide a significant economic stimulus, particularly benefiting sectors such as construction, cement, and steel [4][6] - The stock market has reacted positively, with a surge in related stocks, particularly in the water conservancy, infrastructure, steel, cement, and engineering machinery sectors, leading to a notable increase in trading volumes [4][6] Investment Opportunities - Several brokerage firms have released reports highlighting investment opportunities in sectors related to the Yarlung Tsangpo project, including civil explosives, tunneling, and geotechnical industries [6] - Key companies to watch include China Power Construction, China Energy Engineering, and regional leaders in cement and civil explosives, which are expected to benefit from the project [6] - The high technical barriers of the project suggest that investment focus may narrow to a few key beneficiaries after initial widespread market enthusiasm [6]

Group 1: Debt Levels and Economic Impact - The United States has a national debt exceeding $36 trillion, with a per capita debt of over $100,000, and annual interest payments surpassing $1 trillion, which is more than its defense spending [1][3] - Japan's government debt stands at $9 trillion, amounting to 227% of its GDP, with interest payments increasing by 35% due to rising interest rates, leading to significant corporate bankruptcies and economic stagnation [4][7] - China's total debt is $86 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 63.8%, which is considered safer compared to the US and Japan, as the government can convert short-term high-interest debt into long-term low-interest debt [6][8] Group 2: Economic Strategies and Consumer Behavior - The US is facing challenges as countries reduce their purchases of US debt, leading to a tightening debt market [1][3] - Japan struggles with low consumer spending due to a savings rate of only 1.5%, and the government is hesitant to raise consumption taxes amid an aging population [7] - China is focusing on using debt for infrastructure projects that can generate returns, stimulating consumption and rural industries, contrasting with the US and Japan's reliance on borrowing without productive output [6][8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 fiscal 2025, consolidated net sales increased by 4% to $21.5 million compared to Q3 fiscal 2024 [6][15] - Gross margin reached 38.4%, an increase from 38.2% year over year, reflecting a more profitable sales mix [16] - Net income for Q3 fiscal 2025 was $122,000 or $0.01 per diluted share, down from $977,000 or $0.10 per diluted share in Q3 fiscal 2024 [16][17] - Non-GAAP adjusted net income was $228,000 or $0.02 per diluted share compared to $1.1 million or $0.11 per diluted share in the prior year [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Xerus Industrial's net sales increased by 7.1%, while ZERUST Oil and Gas net sales decreased by 5.3%, and Natur Tec net sales declined by 1.2% [6][11] - Natur Tec sales were $5.8 million, representing a 1.2% year-over-year decline but a 16.5% sequential increase from Q2 fiscal 2025 [12] - ZERUST Oil and Gas sales were $1.3 million compared to $1.4 million in the same period last year, with a trailing twelve-month sales increase of 15.4% [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Joint venture sales decreased by 12.9% year over year to $2.3 million, attributed to high energy prices and regional economic pressures in Europe [7] - NTSC China net sales increased by 27.4% to $4.5 million, marking the second highest quarterly revenue since transitioning to a wholly owned subsidiary [8][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on supporting existing customers, expanding global relationships, and scaling in high-growth markets [5] - Continued investments in the oil and gas business are part of the long-term growth strategy, despite higher operating expenses [5][11] - The company is optimistic about the potential recovery in European markets due to government stimulus packages [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects improvements in profitability in Q4 fiscal 2025 and continued progress in fiscal 2026 [6] - The company remains committed to long-term growth opportunities and believes that strategic priorities will drive sustainable growth and profitability [19] Other Important Information - As of May 31, 2025, working capital was $21.7 million, including $6.8 million in cash [18] - The Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.01 per common share [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Comments on improved quarter and operational profits - Management acknowledged significant improvement in operational profits from Q2 to Q3, with nearly all business units showing progress [22][23] Question: Cost comparison of new technology in oil and gas - Management confirmed that the new technology is cheaper on the front end compared to traditional methods, with easier installation and better long-term protection [24][28] Question: Incremental spending on sales for oil and gas - The company projected an additional $1.3 million in personnel costs for oil and gas over the past twelve months, translating to about $3.4 million in quarterly expenses [32] Question: Profitability of NTSC China - Management confirmed that NTSC China has been profitable for some time, with significant revenue growth observed [36] Question: Developments in compostable packaging - The company is working on improving the water vapor transmission rate of compostable packaging, with potential applications in food packaging expected to generate revenue in the next two years [41][42]

Group 1 - Tesla's stock dropped by 5.4%, reaching a three-week low, following President Trump's threat to consider terminating federal subsidies for Musk's companies, raising concerns about policy risks [2][3] - The technology sector was a major contributor to the market decline, with significant sell-offs in previously high-performing momentum stocks [2][3] - Nvidia and Netflix saw declines of over 2% and 3% respectively, while Apple managed a 1% increase [3] Group 2 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 400.17 points, or 0.91%, closing at 44,494.94, driven by gains in energy, materials, and industrial sectors [2] - The S&P 500 index fell slightly by 6.94 points, or 0.11%, to close at 6,198.01, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 166.85 points, or 0.82%, to 20,202.89 [2] - The Dow Jones Transportation Index surged by 2.9%, marking its largest single-day gain since mid-May, reflecting cautious optimism about the economic outlook [2]

德国将在未来几个月借入比原计划多大约五分之一的资金以应对支出激增。同时，一项总额达460亿欧 元(530亿美元)的减税协议也凸显了德国发债需求的上升趋势。提高第三季度发债规模以及减税措施都 是总理弗里德里希.默茨领导的执政联盟为振兴疲软的德国经济、加强军队建设所采取的部分举措。德 国内阁还批准了今年的预算案和政府的中期财政规划，后者包括到2029年底净新增借款约5000亿欧元。 根据周二公布的最新计划，负责管理联邦债务的德国财政署将在7月至9月期间筹集1185亿欧元资金，比 去年12月最初公布的计划多出190亿欧元。德国长期国债下跌，30年期国债收益率上涨了多达10个基点 至3.06%，为5月末以来的最高水平。(新浪财经) ...

Group 1 - South Korea's exports showed resilience with a year-on-year increase of 8.3% in the first 20 days of June, a significant improvement from a 1.3% decline in May [1] - The trade surplus reached $2.62 billion, with imports growing by 5.3% during the same period [1] - The semiconductor industry saw a notable export growth of 21.8%, while automotive exports increased by 9.2% [1] Group 2 - The South Korean government announced a supplementary budget of 30.5 trillion won ($22.2 billion) to support the economy amid weak consumption and external trade pressures [2] - The supplementary budget includes 15.2 trillion won for economic stimulus, 5 trillion won for support to small and medium enterprises, and 10.3 trillion won to fill current budget revenue gaps [2] - The Bank of Korea has lowered the benchmark interest rate to 2.5% and reduced the annual growth forecast to 0.8%, indicating potential further easing if conditions worsen [2]

韩国计划投入15.2万亿韩元刺激经济，5万亿韩元支持民生。 韩国提出30.5万亿韩元的追加预算。 ...

欧美关税谈判，传出新消息！ 当地时间周三，欧洲股市集体拉升，德国DAX指数盘中一度涨超1%，创出历史新高。法国CAC40指数、瑞典 OMX全指、OMX哥本哈根20指数盘中涨幅也超过1%。截至记者发稿时，上述股指涨幅有所回落。 当天，欧美关税谈判传出一则利好消息。欧盟贸易专员塞夫科维奇表示，他当天与美国贸易代表格里尔进行了 建设性会谈，双方正在朝着正确的方向稳步推进。 另外，当地时间4日晚，德国联邦总理默茨将启程前往美国，展开上任以来首次对华盛顿的正式访问。据报 道，按照计划，默茨将于5日在白宫与美国总统特朗普举行闭门会谈，双方将重点讨论贸易摩擦等问题。 欧盟官员：欧美关税谈判稳步推进 据央视新闻消息，当地时间4日，欧盟贸易专员塞夫科维奇表示，当天与美国贸易代表格里尔进行了建设性会 谈。 关于特朗普政府关税谈判问题，塞夫科维奇称，双方正在朝着正确的方向稳步推进。 上述消息发布后，欧洲股市盘中拉升，德国DAX指数、法国CAC40指数、瑞典OMX全指、OMX哥本哈根20 指数盘中涨幅均超过1%，欧洲斯托克50指数一度涨0.90%。其中，德国DAX指数最高触及24346点，刷新了5 月28日创下的历史最高纪录。今年迄 ...

各大国有银行下调存款利率，1年期银行存款利率跌破1%了。为什么会跌破1%呢？主要有两个原因：一是，不跌不行，银行扛不住。因为存款是银行的 负债，存款利率越高，银行的债务成本就越高。银行的业务本质上就是，把民众的存款低息借过来，再高息贷出去，赚的是息差。可现在，央行降准降息 了，基准利率下调10个基点，降到3.5%了。 | | 最新贷款市场报价利率 (LPR) | 贷款市场报价利率简介 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025-05-20 9:00 | | | 期限 | LPR(%) | | 1 | 1Y | 3.00 | | ↑ | 5Y | 3.50 | 那有人说了，这才3.5%而已，怎么存款利率就跌破1%了呢？这中间不还有2.5%的息差可以赚吗？银行有啥扛不住的？这就关系到银行的综合成本了。首 先，银行要养人。像工行就有41.5万名员工，建行也有37.6万员工，这些人得吃得喝，得交社保。2024年，工行员工总成本就有1075亿，人均薪酬34.42万 元。这个成本是相当高的。 其次，银行有坏账，也就是不良贷款。咱们还是以工行为例，它2024年的贷款不良率约为1.34%，不良贷款总额接 ...