来源：市场资讯 （来源：申万宏源宏观） 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：特朗普下调食品关税，高市早苗推出财政刺激草案 权益资产多数下跌，大宗商品多数下跌。恒生科技下跌7.2%，纳指下跌2.7%；10Y美债收益率下行8.0bp至4.06%；美元指数上涨0.9%至100.15，离岸人民 币微贬至7.11；WTI原油大跌3.4%至58.1美元/桶，COMEX黄金持平于4085.2美元/盎司。 特朗普下调食品关税，日本高市早苗推出财政刺激草案。11月13日，美国宣布与阿根廷、厄瓜多尔、危地马拉、萨尔瓦多达成贸易框架协议，下调食品关 税。11月21日，日本政府公布21.3万亿日元综合经济刺激草案，旨在通过民生补贴、危机管理投资、国防支出拉动GDP。 9月美国非农就业超预期，但失业率上行，美联储10月纪要显示官员观点分化。美国9月非农新增就业人数为11.9万人，超市场预期，但失业率上行至 4.4%；美联储10月会议纪要显示，"许多"（many）参会者支持保持利率不变，仅几位（several）参会者认为降息是合适的。 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰"。 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：特朗普下调食品关 ...

日本内阁今日批准了一项规模达21.3万亿日元（约1354亿美元）的经济刺激方案，包括17.7万亿日元的一般性支出，远超去年13.9万亿日元的水平，成为自疫情以来日本最大规模的财政刺激。此外，计划还包括2.7万亿日元的减税措施。知情人士透露，新增政府债券发行规模仍有待敲定，但预计将超过去年用于类似计划的6.69万亿日元。日本内阁计划最早于11月28日批准补充预算案，并力争在年底前获得国会通过。 ...

Core Points - President Trump has proposed potential stimulus checks of $2,000 or more, referred to as "tariff dividend" checks, aimed at providing relief amid rising prices and economic uncertainty [1][2] - The checks are expected to be funded by tariff revenues, but there are concerns regarding the financial implications, with estimates suggesting a cost of around $600 billion, which exceeds projected tariff income [4] - Congressional approval is required for these payments, similar to previous stimulus checks issued during the COVID-19 pandemic [5] Summary by Category Proposed Stimulus Checks - Trump indicated that the checks could be distributed by mid-2026, targeting "moderate income, middle income" Americans [2][3] - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned that eligibility will be income-based, potentially including tax relief instead of direct payments [3] Economic Context - The proposed checks are seen as a response to macroeconomic challenges, including inflation and uncertainty in the market [1] - Previous stimulus payments during the pandemic were utilized by consumers for various purposes, including investing in stocks and cryptocurrencies [6] Historical Investment Performance - The article reviews the performance of investments made with previous stimulus checks: - Investing $3,200 in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust would have grown to approximately $6,292.57 [10] - An investment in Apple stock would have increased to about $9,151.66 [11] - Nvidia stock would have yielded a value of around $62,880.50 [12] - Tesla stock would have reached approximately $15,761.04 [13] Detailed Investment Returns - Specific returns from previous stimulus checks are highlighted: - SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust: - $1,200 check: worth $2,865.07 (+138.8%) - $600 check: worth $1,058.69 (+76.4%) - $1,400 check: worth $2,368.81 (+69.2%) [14] - Apple: - $1,200 check: worth $4,849.62 (+304.1%) - $600 check: worth $1,171.07 (+95.2%) - $1,400 check: worth $3,130.97 (+123.6%) [15] - Nvidia: - $1,200 check: worth $34,206.12 (+2,750.5%) - $600 check: worth $8,519.52 (+1,319.9%) - $1,400 check: worth $20,154.76 (+1,339.6%) [16] - Tesla: - $1,200 check: worth $12,253.68 (+921.1%) - $600 check: worth $1,080.73 (+80.1%) - $1,400 check: worth $2,426.63 (+73.3%) [17]

出口下滑、投资萎缩、消费停滞，日本经济在连续五个季度增长后调头向下。 日本内阁府17日发布的数据显示，2025年第三季度日本实际国内生产总值（GDP）按年率计算下降 1.8%。这是六个季度以来日本经济首次出现负增长。 环比计算，GDP下降0.4%，尽管略优于市场预期的0.6% 降幅，但仍清晰地表明这个全球第四大经济体 在内外夹击下失去了增长动力。 三驾马车同时熄火 美国关税政策对日本出口造成的冲击不容小觑。 尽管美日两国于9月正式达成协议，对几乎所有日本进口商品实施15% 的基准关税，低于初始计划的 27.5%（汽车）和25%（其他大部分商品），但仍远高于特朗普上台前的2.5%。 汽车制造商出口量骤降，扭转了此前在关税上调前提前出口的局面。大部分车企通过降价消化了关税成 本，但这无疑挤压了它们的利润空间。 对美出口占日本总出口的20%，这一摩擦直接抹去了GDP贡献的0.3个百分点。 日本经济此轮下滑，源于出口、住房投资和私人消费这三驾马车的同时熄火。 美国加征关税对日本出口造成沉重打击，第三季度日本货物及服务贸易出口环比下降1.2%。 作为日本经济的龙头产业，汽车出口在关税生效后大幅下滑，导致外部需求对经济增 ...

【资讯导读】 ·美国宣布取消从阿根廷、厄瓜多尔、危地马拉和萨尔瓦多进口的部分食品关税，涵盖咖啡、香蕉等日 常消费品，旨在回应民众对物价上涨的关切。 ·美国与瑞士已"基本"达成贸易协议：美方将瑞士商品关税从39%降至15%，瑞士则承诺对美投资2000亿 美元，推动双边经贸关系深化。 ·韩美就关税和防务达成一揽子协议：韩国输美产品若税率已达15%或以上，将免征附加关税；未达标 准者统一提至15%。同时，美国将汽车、零部件及木材类产品关税降至15%。韩国承诺对美投资3500亿 美元。 ·为缓冲美国关税政策影响，韩国政府计划2025年将电动车补贴提升20%，达9360亿韩元，并向汽车零 部件供应商提供超15万亿韩元政策融资，推出全方位产业支持措施。 ·特朗普调整对等关税部分农产品获豁免 ·堪萨斯联储主席：当前利率"恰到好处" ·欧盟废除小额免税政策所有进口货物将征关税 ·全球黄金ETF连续五个月净流入前十月创纪录 【市场资讯】 ·美国总统特朗普于11月14日签署新行政令，将部分农业产品从"对等关税"清单中剔除。更新后的豁免 清单及针对"结盟伙伴"的潜在调整自美东时间11月13日0时1分起生效。 ·堪萨斯联储主席施密德 ...

分析认为，这些言论标志着相对于过去政府政策的重大转变：以往政府即使部署大规模支出计划，也坚 持年度财政目标并强调维持市场对日本财政信心的必要性。更加引人关注的是，高市早苗并未排除未来 降低消费税的可能性。这一表态与过往政府坚持财政整顿的立场形成鲜明对比，表明日本经济政策重心 或已从紧缩正式转向刺激增长。 高市早苗表示，她将放弃使用年度基本收支盈余作为日本财政整顿目标的想法，转而支持一个延续数年 的新目标。一些市场参与者将此言论视为为增加财政支出铺路。在周一举行的众议院预算委员会会议 上，高市早苗称，将在明年1月份指示官员考虑引入"多财年"方法来衡量国家财政健康状况。 路透社报道提到，日本背负着相当于其经济规模两倍的公共债务，这在主要经济体中是最严重的。分析 人士警告，日本央行的加息计划和减少购买政府债券也将推高其巨额债务的融资成本。 与此同时，日本政府拟定的经济对策草案曝光。据日本共同社报道，该方案将扩充地方政府可自由支配 的"重点支援地方交付金"，同时将为受美国关税影响的中小企业提供资金周转支持。此举旨在支撑因物 价高涨而疲软的个人消费。 面对人口老龄化、物价持续攀升以及政府债务高企等众多经济问题，日本新任 ...

Market Insights - Russia plans to issue its first sovereign bonds denominated in RMB, with the issuance scale and coupon rate to be determined based on subscription results on December 2, and technical allocation scheduled for December 8 [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary revealed that the Trump administration will announce "substantive" new tariff measures in the coming days, including tariff reductions on coffee and bananas, and discussions on providing a $2,000 "tariff rebate" to households earning less than $100,000 [1] - The issuance of U.S. investment-grade bonds in 2025 has surpassed last year's $1.496 trillion, although it remains below the historical peak of $1.75 trillion in 2020. The global bond issuance in 2025 has exceeded $6 trillion, setting a new record [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that the auction scale of U.S. Treasury bonds will remain unchanged in the coming quarters, while closely monitoring potential long-term changes in demand for specific U.S. government bonds [1] Economic Policy and Federal Reserve - The White House National Economic Council Director expressed willingness to accept a nomination to replace Powell as Fed Chair, advocating for a significant rate cut of 50 basis points in December [2] - Due to the government shutdown, the October employment report and CPI data may not be released, potentially marking the first time in history that these key economic indicators are missing [2] - The Atlanta Fed President unexpectedly announced retirement at the end of his term in February 2026, which is seen as a move to avoid potential reappointment controversies [2] - The Boston Fed President indicated that the threshold for further rate cuts in the short term is relatively high due to persistent inflation, emphasizing caution in the current uncertain policy environment [2] Energy Market - The International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook report suggests that global oil and gas demand may continue to grow until 2050, with LNG supply expected to increase by 50% by 2030 [3] - OPEC's latest monthly report predicts a balanced oil market by 2026, maintaining its global oil demand growth forecast at 1.38 million barrels per day for 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Economist Peter Schiff warns that President Trump's proposal for a "$2,000-per-person tariff dividend" is economically self-defeating and would undermine the purpose of tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Implications - Schiff argues that the total cost of the proposed dividends would exceed the revenue generated from tariffs, potentially leading to an increased trade deficit [1]. - He believes that consumers will use the extra income from the dividends to purchase more expensive imports, further exacerbating the trade deficit [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The proposal has elicited mixed reactions from financial commentators, with some viewing it as a market-boosting stimulus, while others share Schiff's concerns about its inflationary potential [3]. - Anthony Pompliano noted that stocks and bitcoin tend to rise in response to stimulus measures, while Otavio Costa warned against using monetary payouts to combat inflation [3]. Group 3: Alternative Interpretations - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that the "$2,000 dividend" might not be a direct payment but could take various forms, such as tax deductions, indicating that the figure may represent cumulative tax-cut proposals [4].

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted for a month, significantly impacting federal agencies and public services [1] - The shutdown has led to missed deadlines and a lack of critical economic data, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to assess the economy [5][8] - The ongoing situation has resulted in substantial financial losses for businesses and potential long-term economic damage if it continues [17] Group 1: Impact on Federal Operations - The shutdown began on October 1, with approximately 750,000 federal employees furloughed, causing various public services to halt [3] - Key statistical reports, such as the monthly employment data and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), have been delayed, affecting economic assessments [5][8] - The federal court system has also been severely affected, with 33,000 staff members facing unpaid leave due to funding depletion [10] Group 2: Economic Consequences - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce reported that businesses contracted with the federal government have lost approximately $12 billion in the first four weeks of the shutdown [17] - Small businesses are losing about $3 billion weekly, indicating a significant strain on the economy [17] - The Congressional Budget Office warned that prolonged shutdown could result in economic losses ranging from $7 billion to $14 billion [17] Group 3: Future Implications - The shutdown is set to extend beyond November 1, risking the longest shutdown in U.S. history if a temporary funding bill is not passed by November 5 [21] - The Agriculture Department has suspended its Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, affecting around 42 million people [20] - The potential for increased flight delays and security issues during the Thanksgiving travel season raises concerns about public safety and operational efficiency [22]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,781, down 0.94% from the previous trading day, with a year-to-date increase of 28.52% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.41% to 5,923, with a year-to-date increase of 32.56% [1] - The CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.33% to 4,592, with a year-to-date increase of 16.71% [1] - The Dow Jones Index closed at 46,590, down 0.71%, with a year-to-date increase of 9.51% [1] Currency and Commodity Trends - The RMB Index is at 97.080, showing a 1-month increase of 0.50% but a 6-month decrease of 0.28% [2] - Brent crude oil price is at $62.34 per barrel, down 5.52% over the past month and down 3.45% over the past six months [2] - Gold price is at $4,083.89 per ounce, with a 1-month increase of 9.02% and a 6-month increase of 20.82% [2] Company News - Xinda Biopharmaceuticals (01801.HK) has formed a global strategic partnership with Takeda Pharmaceutical, focusing on three research projects in tumor immunotherapy [20] - China Resources Pharmaceutical (03320.HK) successfully issued 1.1 billion RMB in its first phase of technology innovation corporate bonds for 2025, with a record low interest rate of 1.82% [21] - Cainiao reported a significant increase in daily average order volume in Latin America, with a three-digit growth quarter-on-quarter [22] Economic Indicators - The youth unemployment rate in mainland China decreased to 17.7% in September, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [19] - The UK’s CPI for September rose by 3.8% year-on-year, lower than market expectations [15][16] Stock Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market saw a decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping below 26,000 points, closing at 25,781 [4] - Major sectors such as technology, real estate, and industrials fell over 1%, while oil stocks rose against the trend [4] - In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,913, down 0.07% [5] IPO Information - Recent IPOs include Guanghe Tong, which closed at 18.98 HKD, down 11.72% from its listing price [30] - Upcoming IPOs include Dipu Technology, with a listing date set for October 28, 2025 [30]