中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议提出，坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。 复旦大学管理学院科创中心首席经济学家邵宇表示，为有效拉动内需，关键是通过强化社会保障以 提升居民消费信心，并稳定财产价值以保障消费能力，同时优化投资结构，聚焦重大工程和民生项目以 增强长期增长动力。 演播室：白阳 刘倩朋 朱文喆 施悦炜 武坤辉 王小晴 联合拍摄：新华社上海分社 上海市徐汇区融媒体中心 新华社音视频部制作 【纠错】 【责任编辑:赵文涵】 统筹：姚玉洁 汪奇文 编导：李海伟 王竹艾 记者：有之炘 潘清 ...

"十五五"宏观经济展望 不畏浮云遮望眼 玛西高娃 中信证券研究部 宏观经济联席首席分析师 2025年11月10日 请务必阅读末页的免责条款和声明 贸易摩擦压力或将持续存在 中国对美国出口和对非美地区出口 美国在中国出口的占比历史上来看主要受到汇率因素的影响 资料来源：Wind，中信证券研究部。注：截止2025年9月 资料来源：Wind，中信证券研究部 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 2024-01 2024-04 2024-07 2024-10 2025-01 2025-04 2025-07 % 对美贸易差额累计增速 中国对非美出口 中国对美出口 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 % % 美元指数 中国出口中美国的比重(右) 3 核心观点 展望"十五五" ，贸易摩擦可能会进一步常态化，但受益于企业积极拓展新市场，中国出口将 保持韧性，贸易顺差仍然有望保持较高水平。同时，内需有望在2026年年中出现拐点，经济增 长 ...

Policy Measures - The meeting emphasized a "steady progress" approach, focusing on macro policy coordination to stabilize expectations and stimulate economic vitality[3] - Fiscal policy will be "more proactive" while monetary policy will remain "appropriately loose," aiming to lower financing costs for enterprises[8] - The government plans to issue 800 billion yuan in special bonds to support key infrastructure projects, with all project lists already distributed[9] Domestic Demand - The primary task is to tap into and release the potential of service consumption, with a focus on sectors like elderly care and cultural tourism[9] - Effective investment expansion is crucial for stabilizing growth, with a focus on high-quality projects and avoiding inefficient construction[10] Reform and Innovation - The meeting highlighted the importance of technological innovation in driving industrial upgrades and fostering new competitive industries[11] - Measures will be taken to create a unified national market and eliminate local protectionism, ensuring fair competition[11] Social Welfare - Employment stability is prioritized, with policies aimed at supporting key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers[12] - The government will enhance social security systems to provide targeted assistance to vulnerable populations[12] Risk Management - The meeting stressed the need to mitigate local government debt risks and prevent the emergence of new hidden debts[13] - Policies will be implemented to ensure the stability of the real estate market and promote urban renewal projects[13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the new policy aims to boost consumption and activate domestic demand, addressing financial bottlenecks in the consumption sector [1][2][4] - The policy includes 19 specific measures to enhance consumption capacity, improve financial services, and support key consumption areas [1][2] - Fund managers believe that the policy will significantly boost market confidence, particularly in the service consumption sector, which is expected to outperform physical goods consumption [4][5] Group 2 - The policy is seen as a long-term strategy to facilitate the transition from an export-driven economy to one driven by domestic demand, especially in light of increasing external uncertainties [2][3] - There is a structural contradiction in consumption, with goods consumption nearing saturation while service consumption, such as tourism and health care, remains underdeveloped [2][3] - The consumption sector is currently at a historical low valuation, presenting long-term investment opportunities, although some "new consumption" stocks may face adjustment pressure due to previous gains [6]