Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes five "musts" to address the current economic challenges, highlighting the contradiction of strong supply and weak demand domestically, and focusing on the need for policy support and reform innovation to stimulate economic potential [2][15]. Economic Situation and Policy Framework - The conference identifies persistent "old problems and new challenges" in the economy, particularly the contradiction of strong supply and weak demand, which aligns with the ongoing weakness in PPI and CPI [2][15]. - The 2025 conference shifts focus from the demand side issues highlighted in 2024 to the current supply-demand imbalance, indicating a more targeted approach to economic challenges [2][15]. Economic Goals for 2026 - The conference outlines a focus on overall economic stability and quality improvement, stating the goal of "continuously consolidating and expanding the stable and positive momentum of the economy" without detailing specific indicators [3][16]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy remains "more proactive," with an emphasis on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels, while addressing local fiscal difficulties and promoting debt management [4][17]. - Monetary policy aims to support economic stability and reasonable price recovery, with a focus on flexible use of tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [4][17]. Policy Coordination and Reform - The conference stresses the importance of enhancing the consistency and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, integrating both existing and new policies to align with current economic goals [5][18]. - There is a notable emphasis on combining short-term policy measures with long-term institutional reforms, particularly in expanding domestic demand and addressing "involution" in competition [6][19]. Green Development and Risk Management - The conference prioritizes green and low-carbon initiatives, committing to "double carbon" goals and accelerating the construction of a new energy system [7][20]. - Risk management strategies have evolved from "preventing and resolving" to "actively and prudently resolving," particularly in the real estate sector, with a focus on controlling new supply and optimizing existing stock [8][20].

Core Insights - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized five "musts" to address current economic challenges, focusing on potential economic growth and the need for policy support and reform innovation [1][12][23] - The conference highlighted the significant issue of "strong supply and weak demand" in the domestic economy, contrasting with the previous year's focus on demand-side challenges [2][12][24] - The 2025 conference set a general economic growth target for 2026, aiming for stable and reasonable growth without detailing specific indicators, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" goals [2][24] Economic Policy Focus - Fiscal policy will remain "more proactive," with an emphasis on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels, while addressing local fiscal difficulties [3][25][29] - Monetary policy will focus on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, with tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions being considered [3][25][26] - The conference stressed the importance of integrating existing and new policies to enhance their effectiveness and ensure alignment with current economic goals [4][26] Domestic Demand and Investment - The conference underscored the need to prioritize domestic demand, with plans to implement urban and rural resident income increase programs and stimulate service consumption [5][27][28] - Investment strategies will include increasing central budget investment and optimizing the use of local government special bonds to enhance investment stability in 2026 [5][27][28] Structural Reforms and Green Development - The conference called for deepening the construction of a unified national market and addressing "involution" competition, aiming for a shift from quantity expansion to quality improvement in the economy [5][28][29] - Green and low-carbon initiatives were prioritized, with a commitment to accelerate the development of a new energy system and expand green electricity applications [5][28][29]

按照惯例，中央经济工作会议将于近期召开。2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，中国经济如何在复杂 严峻的国内外环境中开好局、起好步，备受各界关注。 日前召开的中共中央政治局会议为明年经济工作定下"稳中求进、提质增效"的总基调，指明结构调整与 动能转换的清晰方向。分析人士认为，作为中国经济政策最权威的风向标，中央经济工作会议料将进一 步强化"稳增长"政策部署，为"十五五"时期高质量发展夯实基础。 财政政策预计更加积极。粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒指出，为进一步扩大内需、提振消费、稳定房地 产市场，有必要以更大力度的财政政策来稳定经济和社会就业，为新旧动能转换赢得更多的时间。在此 背景下，明年应会设定较高的赤字率，延续发行超长期特别国债，进一步优化化债方式。 货币政策保持适度宽松。在当前经济下行压力加大、物价持续低位运行的背景下，货币政策需发挥好逆 周期调节作用，预计明年将通过适时降准降息方式，降低实体经济融资成本。同时，科创、消费领域的 工具额度、适用范围有望进一步拓展。 扩大内需持续加力 内需市场的潜力释放成为关键。十三届全国政协常委、经济委员会副主任杨伟民指出，"十五五"时期中 国总需求增量将更多从扩大居民消 ...

按照惯例，中央经济工作会议将于近期召开。2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，中国经济如何在复杂 严峻的国内外环境中开好局、起好步，备受各界关注。 日前召开的中共中央政治局会议为明年经济工作定下"稳中求进、提质增效"的总基调，指明结构调整与 动能转换的清晰方向。分析人士认为，作为中国经济政策最权威的风向标，中央经济工作会议料将进一 步强化"稳增长"政策部署，为"十五五"时期高质量发展夯实基础。 中新社北京12月10日电 题：重磅会议将定调明年经济 稳增长政策料持续发力 中新社记者 刘文文 加快培育新动能 当前，中国经济正处于增长动力转换的关键阶段，传统动能逐步减弱，结构性矛盾凸显，亟须在复杂环 境中开辟新增长路径。与此同时，部分发达国家在高科技领域强化出口管制和产业保护，突破外部技术 围堵、保障产业链供应链安全自主，已成为高质量发展的迫切要求。 世界知识产权组织近日发布的报告显示，中国在全球创新指数排名中首次跻身全球前十，为技术产业化 奠定了坚实基础。同时，考虑到新能源、人工智能等赛道已成为各国战略博弈的焦点，坚持创新驱动、 加快新动能培育势在必行。 宏观政策协同发力 面对外部不确定性及国内有效需求不足等挑战 ...

Economic Overview - In August, the national economy maintained overall stability with a steady development trend, supported by stable production demand, employment, and prices, as well as the cultivation of new growth drivers [3][4] Industrial and Service Sector Performance - In August, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month-on-month; the service production index grew by 5.6% year-on-year [3] Market Sales and Investment - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan in August, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and a month-on-month increase of 0.17% [3] - From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 326,111 billion yuan, up by 0.5% year-on-year; excluding real estate development investment, the growth rate was 4.2% [3] Trade Performance - In August, the total import and export value was 38,744 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.5%; exports were 23,035 billion yuan (up 4.8%), and imports were 15,709 billion yuan (up 1.7%) [3] Employment and Price Stability - The average urban survey unemployment rate from January to August was 5.2%; in August, it was 5.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, remaining stable compared to the same month last year [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, remaining flat month-on-month; the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] Policy and Future Outlook - The macroeconomic policies are working in coordination, contributing to the overall stability of the national economy, with steady progress in transformation and upgrading, and new achievements in high-quality development [4] - There are still many risks and challenges facing the economy due to external instability and uncertainty; future efforts will focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, while deepening reform and opening up [4]

Economic Overview - In August, the national economy showed overall stability with coordinated macro policies, steady progress in transformation and upgrading, and new achievements in high-quality development [1][2] - The industrial production and service sectors experienced rapid growth, with industrial added value increasing by 5.2% year-on-year and service production index rising by 5.6% [1] Market Performance - Retail sales and fixed asset investment maintained steady growth, with total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 39,668 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [1] - From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 326,111 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year, while investment excluding real estate development grew by 4.2% [1] - The total import and export value in August was 38,744 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, with exports at 23,035 billion yuan (up 4.8%) and imports at 15,709 billion yuan (up 1.7%) [1] Employment and Inflation - The employment situation remained generally stable, with the urban surveyed unemployment rate averaging 5.2% from January to August and at 5.3% in August [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year in August, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9%, indicating a slight increase in inflationary pressure [1] Real Estate Market - The real estate market showed signs of stabilization, with new residential sales area declining by 4.7% year-on-year, a reduction in the decline compared to the previous year [2] - In August, the inventory of unsold commercial housing decreased by 3.17 million square meters, marking six consecutive months of reduction [2] Future Economic Outlook - The economic foundation remains strong, with macro policies showing effectiveness and ongoing reforms supporting stable growth [4] - Despite external challenges, the economy is expected to maintain a steady and improving development trend, bolstered by new growth drivers and enhanced market vitality [4]

Core Viewpoint - The national economy in August showed overall stability and progress, supported by strong leadership and effective macroeconomic policies [1][10]. Group 1: Industrial Production - In August, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month-on-month, with mining, manufacturing, and electricity sectors growing by 5.1%, 5.7%, and 2.4% respectively [2]. - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors performed well, with added value growth of 8.1% and 9.3%, exceeding the overall industrial growth by 2.9 and 4.1 percentage points [2]. - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index was at 49.4, a slight increase from the previous month, while the business activity expectation index rose to 53.7 [2]. Group 2: Service Sector - The service production index increased by 5.6% year-on-year in August, with significant growth in information transmission, finance, and leasing services [3]. - The business activity index for the service sector was at 50.5, indicating expansion, while the business activity expectation index rose to 57.0 [3]. - The revenue of large-scale service enterprises grew by 7.4% year-on-year from January to July [3]. Group 3: Market Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan in August, growing by 3.4% year-on-year [4]. - Online retail sales amounted to 99,828 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.6%, and physical goods online retail sales accounted for 25.0% of total retail sales [4]. - The consumption upgrade policy showed positive effects, with significant growth in categories like furniture and home appliances [4]. Group 4: Fixed Asset Investment - From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326,111 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5% [5][6]. - Manufacturing investment grew by 5.1%, while real estate development investment saw a decline of 12.9% [5]. - High-tech industries, particularly information services and aerospace manufacturing, experienced substantial investment growth of 34.1% and 28.0% respectively [6]. Group 5: Trade and Employment - In August, the total import and export value reached 38,744 billion yuan, with exports growing by 4.8% and imports by 1.7% [7]. - The average urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2% from January to August, with a slight increase to 5.3% in August [8]. - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.9% year-on-year, indicating a slight inflationary trend [9].

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for July shows a notable increase in broad money (M2) and social financing scale, indicating a robust credit environment despite seasonal fluctuations and structural adjustments in the economy [1][2][4]. Monetary Data Summary - As of the end of July, M2 balance reached 329.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month and 2.5 percentage points from the same period last year [1]. - The narrow money (M1) balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6% year-on-year, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month [1]. - The total social financing scale stood at 431.26 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.0%, slightly up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1]. Credit Growth Analysis - The increase in social financing scale for the first seven months of 2025 reached 23.99 trillion yuan, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the previous year [2]. - The fluctuation in credit data during June and July is attributed to seasonal factors, policy adjustments, and structural optimization [3][4]. - The impact of local government bond replacements has significantly influenced loan data, with an estimated 2.6 trillion yuan in refinancing special bonds affecting loan growth by approximately 1 percentage point [4]. Credit Structure Optimization - By the end of July, the balance of RMB loans was 268.51 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.9%, which is notably higher than the nominal economic growth rate [5]. - The growth in loans for small and micro enterprises reached 35.05 trillion yuan, with an 11.8% year-on-year increase, while medium to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector grew by 8.5% [6]. Policy Coordination - The macroeconomic policy has been more proactive, with a significant increase in government bond issuance, which totaled 13.3 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, including 7.89 trillion yuan in national bonds [7]. - The government department's leverage ratio increased by 9 percentage points to 65.3%, while the leverage ratios for non-financial enterprises and households remained relatively stable [8]. - The ongoing fiscal policy aims to stimulate total demand and support economic recovery, which is expected to enhance credit demand and promote a positive cycle between finance and the real economy [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial data released by the central bank for July 2025, highlighting the acceleration in M2 growth and the stable growth of social financing, indicating a positive trend in credit demand and economic activity [3][4]. Financial Data Overview - As of the end of July 2025, M2 balance reached 329.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month and 2.5 percentage points from the same period last year [3]. - The narrow money (M1) balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6% year-on-year, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month [3]. - The total social financing stock was 431.26 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.0%, and an incremental increase of 1.13 trillion yuan, which is 361.3 billion yuan more than the previous year [3][4]. Seasonal Factors Impacting Data - The fluctuations in credit data for June and July are attributed to seasonal factors, policy adjustments, and structural optimization [3][6]. - The timing of financial institutions' half-year reports and the settlement period for enterprises significantly influenced the credit data [6]. - The replacement of local government bonds has notably impacted loan data, with an estimated 2.6 trillion yuan in refinancing special bonds affecting loan growth by approximately 1 percentage point [7][6]. Credit Structure Optimization - By the end of July, the balance of RMB loans was 268.51 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9%, indicating strong support for the real economy [9]. - The growth of inclusive small and micro loans was 11.8%, and medium to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector grew by 8.5%, both exceeding the overall loan growth rate [10]. Macroeconomic Policy Coordination - The macroeconomic policy has been more proactive, with a significant increase in government bond issuance, totaling 13.3 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, including 7.89 trillion yuan in national bonds [12]. - The government department's leverage ratio increased by 9 percentage points to 65.3%, while the leverage ratios for non-financial enterprises and households remained relatively stable [12][14]. - The article emphasizes that the continuous and stable macroeconomic policies are expected to support effective credit demand and economic recovery [12][14].

Policy Measures - The meeting emphasized a "steady progress" approach, focusing on macro policy coordination to stabilize expectations and stimulate economic vitality[3] - Fiscal policy will be "more proactive" while monetary policy will remain "appropriately loose," aiming to lower financing costs for enterprises[8] - The government plans to issue 800 billion yuan in special bonds to support key infrastructure projects, with all project lists already distributed[9] Domestic Demand - The primary task is to tap into and release the potential of service consumption, with a focus on sectors like elderly care and cultural tourism[9] - Effective investment expansion is crucial for stabilizing growth, with a focus on high-quality projects and avoiding inefficient construction[10] Reform and Innovation - The meeting highlighted the importance of technological innovation in driving industrial upgrades and fostering new competitive industries[11] - Measures will be taken to create a unified national market and eliminate local protectionism, ensuring fair competition[11] Social Welfare - Employment stability is prioritized, with policies aimed at supporting key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers[12] - The government will enhance social security systems to provide targeted assistance to vulnerable populations[12] Risk Management - The meeting stressed the need to mitigate local government debt risks and prevent the emergence of new hidden debts[13] - Policies will be implemented to ensure the stability of the real estate market and promote urban renewal projects[13]