2025.08. 13 本文字数：2631，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 7月是传统信贷小月，但其数据表现依然被市场格外关注。 从整体看，2025年前7个月，社会融资规模增量达23.99万亿元，同比多增5.12万亿元。市场权威 专家认为，当前宏观政策注重协同发力，政府部门加杠杆与实体部门稳杠杆相结合，助力经济循环顺 畅，为信贷需求增长提供保障。从长远看，财政政策持续发力，充分发挥财政乘数效应拉动总需求， 有助于让经济更好"动起来"。 金融数据波动有季节因素 6、7月信贷数据波动，与金融机构上半年报表披露和实体企业结算窗口期有很大关系。 市场权威专家表示，一方面，6月恰逢金融机构半年报披露，部分机构会出现短期调整信贷投放节 奏、拉高6月数据的情况，这种"冲时点"的做法在以往年份也常常出现，从经营的角度看有一定的内 在逻辑。另一方面，6月也是企业半年期经营结算的重要时间窗口，大量企业面临货款回收、债务偿 还、资金清算等刚性需求，这种阶段性的资金流动高峰也会反映在信贷数据上。 专家建议，观察6、7月份金融数据时，可考虑将两个月的数据合并起来综合分析，剔除季节性和外 部冲击因素的扰动。 实际上，在半年 ...

Policy Measures - The meeting emphasized a "steady progress" approach, focusing on macro policy coordination to stabilize expectations and stimulate economic vitality[3] - Fiscal policy will be "more proactive" while monetary policy will remain "appropriately loose," aiming to lower financing costs for enterprises[8] - The government plans to issue 800 billion yuan in special bonds to support key infrastructure projects, with all project lists already distributed[9] Domestic Demand - The primary task is to tap into and release the potential of service consumption, with a focus on sectors like elderly care and cultural tourism[9] - Effective investment expansion is crucial for stabilizing growth, with a focus on high-quality projects and avoiding inefficient construction[10] Reform and Innovation - The meeting highlighted the importance of technological innovation in driving industrial upgrades and fostering new competitive industries[11] - Measures will be taken to create a unified national market and eliminate local protectionism, ensuring fair competition[11] Social Welfare - Employment stability is prioritized, with policies aimed at supporting key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers[12] - The government will enhance social security systems to provide targeted assistance to vulnerable populations[12] Risk Management - The meeting stressed the need to mitigate local government debt risks and prevent the emergence of new hidden debts[13] - Policies will be implemented to ensure the stability of the real estate market and promote urban renewal projects[13]

Group 1 - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a stable and positive development trend in the second half of the year, supported by solid performance in the first half [1][2] - The government has implemented policies to boost consumption, including financial support for service sectors and subsidies for durable goods, which have shown positive effects [2] - There is a focus on increasing local government special bonds and enhancing investment in social sectors such as elderly care, education, and healthcare to stimulate economic growth [2] Group 2 - The expansion of the "trade-in" policy to service consumption sectors is anticipated, aiming to enhance consumer confidence and spending [2] - The number of countries with unilateral visa-free policies for entry into China has increased to 47, which is expected to invigorate the inbound consumption market [2] - Macro policies are being coordinated to ensure stable economic operations, with relevant departments accelerating the introduction of supportive measures for the second half of the year [1][2]

Group 1 - Brazil's government expressed outrage to the U.S. government regarding the imposition of tariffs, highlighting that the UN Conference on Trade and Development Secretary-General stated that U.S. tariff policies have caused chaos in global supply chains [1] - The President of the New York Federal Reserve indicated that U.S. tariff policies could potentially raise U.S. inflation by 1 percentage point [1] Group 2 - The overall agricultural and rural economy in China showed stable performance in the first half of the year [1] - The postal industry in China experienced a year-on-year growth of 16.9% in express delivery business volume during the first half of the year [1] Group 3 - The national power load in China reached a new historical high [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the combination of policy tools aimed at both short-term economic stabilization and long-term high-quality development, addressing deep-seated structural contradictions while optimizing resource allocation mechanisms to respond to uncertainties with certainty in high-quality development [1][4] - The implementation of more proactive macroeconomic policies has effectively stabilized market expectations and boosted economic confidence, as evidenced by the continuous recovery in fiscal revenue growth and accelerated fiscal spending from January to April [1][2] - The fiscal revenue data shows a year-on-year increase of 1.9% in April for national general public budget revenue, with tax revenue also growing by 1.9%, indicating a marginal improvement in the tax revenue structure, particularly in the equipment manufacturing sector [2][3] Group 2 - Fiscal expenditure is highlighted as a crucial means to ensure people's livelihoods and promote socio-economic development, with a reported expenditure of 93,581 billion yuan from January to April, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.6% [3] - The increase in spending is particularly focused on social security, health, and education, which enhances the accessibility and equity of basic public services, thereby improving the overall well-being and happiness of the population [3] - The government's proactive measures include issuing long-term special bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan and local government special bonds of 4.4 trillion yuan to support local investment, alongside other financial tools aimed at stabilizing capital market expectations and facilitating industrial policy implementation [4]

Economic Overview - The core viewpoint emphasizes that despite external shocks in April, China's economic foundation remains stable, with strong resilience and potential, supported by coordinated macro policies [1][7] - The overall economic recovery is expected to continue, bolstered by favorable conditions and proactive measures from various sectors [1][6] Industrial Performance - In April, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 6.1% year-on-year, with 36 out of 41 major industries showing growth [2][3] - High-tech manufacturing saw a significant increase, with added value rising by 10% year-on-year, outpacing overall industrial growth [2][3] - Key sectors such as 3D printing and industrial control systems experienced substantial production increases of 60.7% and 29.5%, respectively [2] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment in the first four months of the year increased by 8.8%, significantly higher than the overall investment growth [3] - High-tech service industry investment rose by 11.3%, indicating a strong focus on new productive forces and the transition of growth drivers [3] Consumer and Trade Dynamics - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,174 billion yuan, marking a 5.1% year-on-year increase [4][5] - The total import and export value in April was 38,391 billion yuan, with exports growing by 9.3% and imports by 0.8% [5] - The resilience of domestic consumption is highlighted, with policies supporting consumer spending expected to strengthen further [4][5] Policy and Future Outlook - The central government has emphasized the need for proactive macro policies, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, to support economic growth [1][6] - The outlook for May suggests continued economic resilience, driven by enhanced policy measures and a focus on domestic demand [1][6]

热点资讯 早盘速递 2025/5/19 1、上市公司重大资产重组新规落地。证监会正式公布实施修订后的《上市公司重大资产重组管理办法》，在简化审核程序、创 新交易工具、提升监管包容度等方面作出优化。修订后的重组办法创多个"首次" ：首次建立简易审核程序；首次调整发行股份 购买资产的监管要求；首次建立分期支付机制；首次引入私募基金"反向挂钩"安排，鼓励私募基金参与上市公司并购重组。 2、俄罗斯和乌克兰两国代表团16日在土耳其举行3年来的首次直接谈判。乌克兰方面在谈判结束后表示，谈判毫无成果。俄方则 表示，对谈判结果总体满意，愿意继续同乌方进行接触。据乌克兰消息人士称，作为停火条件，俄罗斯代表团要求乌军从顿涅茨 克、卢甘斯克、赫尔松和扎波罗热地区撤军。 重点关注 尿素、碳酸锂、沥青、螺纹钢、豆粕 夜盘表现 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） 1.50% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% -2.00% -1.50% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 板块表现 非金属建材, 2.81% 贵金属, 29.62% 油脂油料, 11.81% ...