Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report is dated October 30, 2025 [1] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report 3. Core View - The overall terminal demand for hot-rolled coils is resilient with increased apparent demand, higher than the same period last year. However, after the Fed's interest rate cut and the end of the China-US summit, market bullish sentiment has weakened. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA have crossed and pulled back at high levels. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,318 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the position volume is 1,473,286 lots, up 12,227 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is - 61,090 lots, down 9,028 lots; the HC1 - 5 contract spread is - 9 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the daily warehouse receipt of HC on the SHFE is 128,835 tons, down 5,938 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 212 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 4.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,370 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,340 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Wuhan is 3,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin is 3,260 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract is 52 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 80 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 4.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 807 yuan/wet ton, up 4 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 3,000 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 144.2065 million tons, up 1.3895 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 373,700 tons, down 1,200 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.3327 million tons, down 60,000 tons; the inventory of billets in Hebei is 1.1957 million tons, down 103,900 tons [2] 4.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 84.73%, up 0.48 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 89.92%, down 0.39 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 3.2356 million tons, up 11,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 82.65%, up 0.28 percentage points. The weekly inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 776,600 tons, up 3,100 tons; the weekly social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 3.2893 million tons, down 86,400 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons; the monthly net export volume of steel is 9.92 million tons, up 910,000 tons [2] 4.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 3.2758 million vehicles, up 460,400 vehicles; the monthly sales of automobiles is 3.2264 million vehicles, up 369,800 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators is 10.1276 million units, up 674,400 units; the monthly output of household washing machines is 11.7849 million units, up 1.653 million units [2] 4.6 Industry News - On October 30, Mysteel reported that the actual weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 3.2356 million tons, up 11,000 tons; the factory inventory was 776,600 tons, up 3,100 tons; the social inventory was 3.2893 million tons, down 86,400 tons; the total inventory was 4.0659 million tons, down 83,300 tons; the apparent demand was 3.3189 million tons, up 51,600 tons week - on - week. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second rate cut this year, and announced the end of the balance sheet reduction starting from December 1. Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade launched an anti - circumvention investigation into the anti - dumping case of hot - rolled coils originating from China [2]

热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/10/14 | 项目类别 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,241 | -20↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1451729 | +29205↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -40,941 | +6074↑ HC1-5合约价差(元/吨) | -7 | +6↑ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 59778 | +8406↑ HC2601-RB2601合约价差(元/吨) | 180 | +2↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,320.00 | -30.00↓ 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,260.00 | -20.00↓ | | | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,370.00 | -20.00↓ 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,220.00 | -30.00↓ | | | HC主力合约基差(元/吨) | 79.00 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,358 | +1↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1369716 | +1955↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -76,157 | +1287↑ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | 62 | +5↑ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 32504 | -5355↓ HC2601-RB2601合约价差(元/吨) | 191 | -2↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,420.00 | 0.00 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,370.00 | 0.00 | | | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,430.00 | 0.00 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,330.00 | 0.00 | | | HC主力合约基差(元/吨) | 62.00 | -1.00↓ 杭州热卷-螺纹钢价差(元/吨) | 80.00 | ...

热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/9/18 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,354 | -36↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1412324 | +20862↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -117,198 | +9211↑ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | 43 | +9↑ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 47049 | -13892↓ HC2601-RB2601合约价差(元/吨 ...

热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/9/1 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,303 | -43↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1195204 | +28571↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -90,572 | +11965↑ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | 17 | +8↑ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报( ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment has cooled, the mainstream positions have reduced long positions, and the steel market is intertwined with multiple and short factors, so the market may fluctuate. Technically, for the HC2510 contract, the 1 - hour MACD indicator shows that the rebound of DIFF and DEA is under pressure, and the red column is shrinking. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,367 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; the position volume is 899,991 lots, down 38,254 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is - 69,010 lots, down 14,157 lots; the HC10 - 1 contract spread is 10 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 26,855 tons, down 894 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread is 254 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,430 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,400 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Wuhan is 3,460 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin is 3,370 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract is 63 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 110 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 774 yuan/wet ton, down 7 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 3,020 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 13,845.20 tons, up 25.93 tons; the inventory of coke in sample coking plants is 39.38 tons, up 0.33 tons; the inventory of coke in sample steel mills is 609.69 tons, down 0.09 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets is 116.09 tons, up 3.57 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.34%, down 0.23%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.27%, up 0.03%. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils in sample steel mills is 325.24 tons, up 9.65 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils in sample steel mills is 83.08%, up 2.46%. The factory inventory of hot - rolled coils in sample steel mills is 78.89 tons, down 1.09 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 282.55 tons, up 5.06 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 7,966 tons, down 353 tons; the monthly net export volume of steel is 939 tons, up 18 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 259.11 million vehicles, down 20.30 million vehicles; the monthly sales volume of automobiles is 259.34 million vehicles, down 31.11 million vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 2,059.65 million units, down 778.66 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators is 873.07 million units, down 31.68 million units; the monthly output of household washing machines is 877.43 million units, down 73.36 million units [2] 3.6 Industry News - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in mid - August, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel was 2.115 million tons, a 2.0% increase from the previous period; the steel inventory was 15.67 million tons, a 4.0% increase from the previous period. From August 18th to August 24th, global shipyards received 16 + 4 new ship orders, among which Chinese shipyards received 8+3 orders, and South Korean shipyards received 6 orders [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report On Thursday, the HC2510 contract decreased with reduced positions. The overall situation is that Tangshan has entered a production - restriction period, but market sentiment is low, and the futures price is weak. The short - term market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running at a low level. The operation suggestion is to be bearish with oscillations, and pay attention to the rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - HC main contract closing price is 3,375 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; HC main contract position is 1,047,482 lots, down 76,410 lots; HC contract top 20 net position is - 56,224 lots, down 1,804 lots; HC10 - 1 contract spread is 15 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 34,892 tons, down 5,669 tons; HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread is 254 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,470 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou is 3,420 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan is 3,460 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin is 3,370 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The HC main contract basis is 95 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 140 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port is 771 yuan/wet ton, up 9 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,535 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 3,020 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 45 - port iron ore inventory is 13,819.27 million tons, up 107 million tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory is 39.05 million tons, down 5.31 million tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory is 609.78 million tons, down 9.52 million tons; the Hebei billet inventory is 112.52 million tons, down 2.84 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.57%, down 0.20%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.24%, up 0.17%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output is 325.24 million tons, up 9.65 million tons; the sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate is 83.08%, up 2.46%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory is 78.89 million tons, down 1.09 million tons; the 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory is 282.55 million tons, up 5.06 million tons. The domestic crude steel output is 7,966 million tons, down 353 million tons; the steel net export volume is 939 million tons, up 18 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly automobile production is 2.5911 million vehicles, down 0.203 million vehicles; the monthly automobile sales are 2.5934 million vehicles, down 0.3111 million vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner output is 20.5965 million units, down 7.7866 million units; the monthly household refrigerator output is 8.7307 million units, down 0.3168 million units; the monthly household washing - machine output is 8.7743 million units, and the data trend is not clearly presented in the report [2]. Industry News - On August 21st, Mysteel reported that the actual hot - rolled coil output was 325.24 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.65 million tons; the steel mill inventory was 78.89 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.09 million tons; the social inventory was 282.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.06 million tons; the total inventory was 361.44 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.97 million tons; the apparent demand was 321.27 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.52 million tons. Tangshan Zhonghou Plate Co., Ltd. plans to overhaul a 1*1780m³ blast furnace starting from August 22nd, with an expected overhaul period of about 40 days, and an average daily impact on hot - metal output of about 0.5 million tons [2].

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,440 | -11↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1428587 | -31588↓ | | 期货市场 | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -75,167 | +4091↑ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | 0 | +4↑ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 70915 | 0.00 H ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,457 | +40↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1461734 | +24663↑ | | 期货市场 | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -62,794 | +17567↑ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -5 | -7↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 55998 | 0.00 HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 224 | +11↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,480.00 | +10.00↑ 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,450.00 | +20.00↑ | | | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,470.00 | 0.00 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,390.00 | +20.00↑ | | | HC主力合约基差(元/吨) | 23.00 | -30.00↓ 杭州热卷-螺纹钢价差(元/ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The terminal demand for hot-rolled coils is relatively resilient, and the market is shifting from sentiment-driven to reality-checking. The market may enter a range-bound consolidation. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows a potential golden cross of DIFF and DEA at low levels. It is recommended to engage in short-term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,417 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan [2]. - HC main contract open interest: 1,437,071 lots, down 17,689 lots [2]. - HC contract top 20 net open interest: -80,361 lots, up 28,605 lots [2]. - HC10 - 1 contract spread: 2 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2]. - HC SHFE daily warehouse receipts: 55,998 tons, down 1,176 tons [2]. - HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 213 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,470 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Guangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,430 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Wuhan 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,470 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - Tianjin 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,360 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - HC main contract basis: 53 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2]. - Hangzhou hot-rolled coil - rebar spread: 100 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 768 yuan/wet ton, down 2 yuan [2]. - Hebei quasi-primary metallurgical coke: 1,365 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,270 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Hebei Q235 billet: 3,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - 45-port iron ore inventory: 136.579 million tons, down 1.3248 million tons [2]. - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 462,800 tons, down 35,200 tons [2]. - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.2678 million tons, down 132,200 tons [2]. - Hebei billet inventory: 1.1102 million tons, up 41,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.48%, unchanged [2]. - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.22%, down 0.56% [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil output: 3.2279 million tons, up 53,000 tons [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 82.46%, up 1.35% [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil factory inventory: 793,000 tons, up 13,000 tons [2]. - 33-city hot-rolled coil social inventory: 2.6865 million tons, up 14,900 tons [2]. - Domestic crude steel output: 8.318 million tons, down 336,000 tons [2]. - Steel net exports: 921,000 tons, down 89,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.7941 million units, up 145,600 units [2]. - Automobile sales: 2.9045 million units, up 218,100 units [2]. - Air conditioner production: 28.3831 million units, down 1.0969 million units [2]. - Household refrigerator production: 9.0474 million units, up 537,400 units [2]. - Household washing machine production: 9.5079 million units, up 95,900 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - US non-farm payrolls in July increased by 73,000, lower than the expected 104,000. After the data release, US President Trump criticized Powell again and called for a rate cut [2]. - In July, the performance of new energy vehicle startups was divided. Leapmotor's delivery volume exceeded 50,000 for the first time, reaching 50,129 units, a year-on-year increase of 126.9%. XPeng Motors also set a new delivery record, delivering 36,717 new cars in July, a year-on-year increase of 229.45%. Li Auto's delivery volume declined significantly, and NIO continued to hover around 20,000 units [2]. - On Monday, the HC2510 contract first declined and then rebounded. Macroscopically, US President Trump signed an executive order to impose reciprocal tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on countries or regions that have not reached an agreement with the US (including Canada, Brazil, etc.), and all tariffs will take effect on August 7, 2025. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils stopped falling and rebounded, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.46%, which is at a relatively high level; the apparent demand rebounded, and the inventory increased slightly [2].