热轧卷板产业链日报 2026/3/4 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,212 | -7↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1435635 | -16252↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 60,441 | +3414↑ HC5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -20 | -1↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 444294 | +10596↑ HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) ...

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,239 | -12↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1499810 | +15200↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 9,478 | +20335↑ HC5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -19 | -1↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 249176 | +231 ...

热轧卷板产业链日报 2026/1/7 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,332 | +69↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1377887 | +103802↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -17,707 | -39959↓ HC5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -21 | -2↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Thursday's HC2605 contract rebounded with reduced positions. Macroscopically, the Central Financial Office responded to economic hot - spot issues, and expanding domestic demand is the top - priority task for next year. Consumption should be boosted from both supply and demand sides, and consumption and investment should be coordinated. - In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased significantly, with the capacity utilization rate dropping to 74.57%. Terminal demand shrank, and the apparent demand fell below 3 million tons. Overall, the terminal demand for plates declined, but with the rebound of furnace materials and positive macro - expectations, the futures price was supported. - Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising. It is recommended for short - term trading with attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,277 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan [2]. - HC main contract position: 1,189,556 lots, down 10,392 lots. - HC contract top 20 net position: 11,975 lots, down 23,488 lots. - HC1 - 5 contract spread: 11 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 131,004 tons, down 300 tons. - HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread: 152 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. - Guangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,280 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. - Wuhan 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,330 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Tianjin 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,190 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. - HC main contract basis: 13 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan. - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread: - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 796 yuan/wet ton, up 11 yuan. - Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,640 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,940 yuan/ton, unchanged. - 45 - port iron ore inventory: 154.2786 million tons, up 1.3152 million tons. - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 499,600 tons, up 55,100 tons. - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.3522 million tons, up 99,700 tons. - Hebei billet inventory: 1.1313 million tons, up 14,800 tons [2]. Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 78.61%, down 1.53 percentage points. - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 85.9%, down 1.16 percentage points. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output: 2.9191 million tons, down 168,000 tons. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 74.57%, down 4.29 percentage points. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory: 834,200 tons, down 6,100 tons. - 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory: 3.073 million tons, down 57,600 tons. - Domestic crude steel output: 69.87 million tons, down 2.13 million tons. - Steel net export volume: 9.48 million tons, up 200,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 3.5316 million vehicles, up 172,900 vehicles. - Automobile sales: 3.429 million vehicles, up 106,900 vehicles. - Air - conditioner production: 15.026 million units, up 822,000 units. - Household refrigerator production: 9.442 million units, up 654,000 units. - Household washing machine production: 12.013 million units, up 978,000 units [2]. Industry News - On December 18, Mysteel information showed that the actual output of hot - rolled coils this period was 2.9191 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 168,000 tons; factory inventory was 834,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,100 tons; social inventory was 3.073 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 57,600 tons; total inventory was 3.9072 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63,700 tons; apparent demand was 2.9828 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 136,900 tons. - According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from December 1st to 14th, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 764,000 vehicles, a 24% year - on - year decrease compared with the same period in December and a 2% increase compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 22.247 million vehicles, a 5% year - on - year increase [2].

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：HC：热轧卷板 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/11/20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,267 | -10↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1152598 | -44323↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -64,809 | +15264↑ HC1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Thursday, the HC2601 contract decreased in positions and consolidated. Most provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions have suspended automobile replacement subsidies or scrapping and renewal subsidies. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils continued to decline slightly, with the capacity utilization rate dropping to 80.13%. Downstream demand decreased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. Overall, both the output and apparent demand of hot-rolled coils have fallen from their highs, and the fundamentals are mixed, causing the hot-rolled coil futures price to enter a range-bound consolidation. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA have rebounded to near the 0-axis. It is recommended to conduct short-term trading and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,254 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the position volume was 1,302,507 lots, a decrease of 8,957 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was -52,146 lots, an increase of 7,583 lots; the HC1-5 contract spread was -9 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 137,606 tons, an increase of 12,063 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 208 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,310 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou, it was 3,270 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan, it was 3,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; in Tianjin, it was 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the HC main contract was 56 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan; the price difference between hot-rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 781 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 1 yuan; the price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,640 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,930 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 148.9481 million tons, an increase of 3.5557 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 361,500 tons, a decrease of 12,900 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.2656 million tons, a decrease of 23,200 tons; the inventory of billets in Hebei was 1.2 million tons, an increase of 4,300 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.15%, an increase of 1.42 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 87.79%, a decrease of 0.80 percentage points. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils at sample steel mills was 3.1366 million tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot-rolled coils was 80.13%, a decrease of 1.15 percentage points. The factory inventory of hot-rolled coils at sample steel mills was 775,200 tons, an increase of 900 tons; the social inventory of hot-rolled coils in 33 cities was 3.33 million tons, a decrease of 200 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 73.49 million tons, a decrease of 3.88 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.279 million tons, a decrease of 641,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 3.359 million vehicles, an increase of 83,200 vehicles; the monthly sales volume was 3.322 million vehicles, an increase of 95,600 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 18.0948 million units, an increase of 1.276 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 10.1276 million units, an increase of 674,400 units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 11.7849 million units, an increase of 1.653 million units [2] 3.6 Industry News - On November 13, Mysteel information showed that the actual output of hot-rolled coils this period was 3.1366 million tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons compared with the previous period; the factory inventory was 775,200 tons, an increase of 900 tons; the social inventory was 333,000 tons, a decrease of 200 tons; the total inventory was 4.1052 million tons, an increase of 700 tons; the apparent demand was 3.1359 million tons, a decrease of 7,100 tons compared with the previous week. According to the Passenger Car Association, from November 1 - 9, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 415,000 vehicles, a 19% decrease compared with the same period in November last year; the retail sales of the national new energy passenger car market were 265,000 vehicles, a 5% decrease compared with the same period in November last year [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report is dated October 30, 2025 [1] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report 3. Core View - The overall terminal demand for hot-rolled coils is resilient with increased apparent demand, higher than the same period last year. However, after the Fed's interest rate cut and the end of the China-US summit, market bullish sentiment has weakened. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA have crossed and pulled back at high levels. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,318 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the position volume is 1,473,286 lots, up 12,227 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is - 61,090 lots, down 9,028 lots; the HC1 - 5 contract spread is - 9 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the daily warehouse receipt of HC on the SHFE is 128,835 tons, down 5,938 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 212 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 4.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,370 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,340 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Wuhan is 3,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin is 3,260 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract is 52 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 80 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 4.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 807 yuan/wet ton, up 4 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 3,000 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 144.2065 million tons, up 1.3895 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 373,700 tons, down 1,200 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.3327 million tons, down 60,000 tons; the inventory of billets in Hebei is 1.1957 million tons, down 103,900 tons [2] 4.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 84.73%, up 0.48 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 89.92%, down 0.39 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 3.2356 million tons, up 11,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 82.65%, up 0.28 percentage points. The weekly inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 776,600 tons, up 3,100 tons; the weekly social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 3.2893 million tons, down 86,400 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons; the monthly net export volume of steel is 9.92 million tons, up 910,000 tons [2] 4.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 3.2758 million vehicles, up 460,400 vehicles; the monthly sales of automobiles is 3.2264 million vehicles, up 369,800 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators is 10.1276 million units, up 674,400 units; the monthly output of household washing machines is 11.7849 million units, up 1.653 million units [2] 4.6 Industry News - On October 30, Mysteel reported that the actual weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 3.2356 million tons, up 11,000 tons; the factory inventory was 776,600 tons, up 3,100 tons; the social inventory was 3.2893 million tons, down 86,400 tons; the total inventory was 4.0659 million tons, down 83,300 tons; the apparent demand was 3.3189 million tons, up 51,600 tons week - on - week. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second rate cut this year, and announced the end of the balance sheet reduction starting from December 1. Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade launched an anti - circumvention investigation into the anti - dumping case of hot - rolled coils originating from China [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, the HC2601 contract decreased with increasing positions. In terms of macro - aspects, from January to September this year, the State Grid completed fixed - asset investment of over 420 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%. It is expected that the annual investment scale of the State Grid will exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time this year. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils remains high with a capacity utilization rate of 82.58%; demand has declined and inventory has increased. Overall, furnace materials have corrected, weakening cost support, and tariff disturbances will continue to affect market sentiment in the short term. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are operating below the 0 - axis. The operation strategy is to be bearish on the oscillation, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,241 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the position volume of the HC main contract is 1,451,729 lots, up 29,205 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is - 40,941 lots, up 6,074 lots; the HC1 - 5 contract spread is - 7 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt report of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 59,778 tons, up 8,406 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 180 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,320 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Wuhan is 3,370 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Tianjin is 3,220 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract is 79 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price difference between Hangzhou hot - rolled coils and rebar is 80 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port is 791 yuan/wet ton, up 4 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,280 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,940 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 140.2867 million tons, up 313,200 tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 425,500 tons, up 34,900 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.5057 million tons, down 125,400 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets is 1.276 million tons, up 79,400 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 84.25%, down 0.02 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.53%, down 0.10 percentage points. The output of hot - rolled coils of sample steel mills is 3.2329 million tons, down 14,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils of sample steel mills is 82.58%, down 0.37 percentage points. The inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 836,000 tons, up 24,000 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 3.293 million tons, up 299,200 tons. The domestic crude steel output is 77.37 million tons, down 2.29 million tons; the net export volume of steel is 9.917 million tons, up 907,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 3.276 million vehicles, up 460,600 vehicles; the monthly sales of automobiles is 3.226 million vehicles, up 369,400 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators is 9.4532 million units, up 722,500 units; the monthly output of household washing machines is 10.1318 million units, up 1.3575 million units [2] Industry News - In early October 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.88 million tons, an increase of 1.21 million tons from the previous ten - day period, a growth of 8.2%; an increase of 3.51 million tons from the beginning of the year, a growth of 28.4%; an increase of 60,000 tons from the same ten - day period last month, a growth of 0.6%; an increase of 1.15 million tons from the same ten - day period last year, a growth of 7.8%; a decrease of 480,000 tons from the same ten - day period the year before last, a decline of 2.9%. From January to September, the production and sales of automobiles were 24.333 million and 24.363 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 12.9%. Among them, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles both exceeded 11 million, a year - on - year increase of over 30%, and the sales of new - energy vehicles accounted for 46.1% of the total sales of new vehicles [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The futures price of HC2601 may fall into range consolidation due to the balance between bulls and bears in the market. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 axis, but the red column is expanding. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price is 3,358 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the position volume is 1,369,716 lots, up 1,955 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is - 76,157 lots, up 1,287 lots; the HC10 - 1 contract spread is 62 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the HC last - trading - day warehouse receipt is 32,504 tons, down 5,355 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 191 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Tianjin remains unchanged at 3,420 yuan/ton, 3,370 yuan/ton, 3,430 yuan/ton, and 3,330 yuan/ton respectively. The HC main contract basis is 62 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 80 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore in Qingdao Port is 789 yuan/wet ton, down 3 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel is 2,280 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 3,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 45 - port iron ore inventory is 13,804.22 million tons, down 48.91 million tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory is 42.21 million tons, down 1.55 million tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory is 644.90 million tons, up 11.29 million tons; the Hebei billet inventory is 122.5 million tons, up 0.77 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 84.00%, up 0.15%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.38%, up 0.18%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output is 324.19 million tons, down 2.30 million tons; the sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate is 82.81%, down 0.59%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory is 81.70 million tons, up 0.40 million tons; the 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory is 298.80 million tons, up 2.11 million tons. The domestic crude steel output is 7,737 million tons, down 229 million tons; the steel net export volume is 901.00 million tons, down 38.00 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly automobile production is 281.54 million vehicles, up 22.43 million vehicles; the monthly automobile sales are 285.66 million vehicles, up 26.32 million vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner output is 1,681.88 million units, down 377.77 million units; the monthly household refrigerator output is 945.32 million units, up 72.25 million units; the monthly household washing machine output is 1,013.18 million units, up 135.75 million units [2] 3.6 Industry News - On September 25, Mysteel information showed that the actual hot - rolled coil output was 324.19 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.3 million tons; the factory inventory was 81.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 million tons; the social inventory was 298.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.11 million tons; the total inventory was 380.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.51 million tons; the apparent demand was 321.68 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 million tons. On September 24, the US announced to lower the tariff on EU - imported cars to 15%, effective retroactively from August 1 [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint On Thursday, the HC2601 contract decreased with increasing positions. Macroscopically, Japan's Finance Minister Kato Shigekatsu rejected the US's call to increase pressure on Russia and the proposal to impose higher tariffs on China and India. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly production of hot - rolled coils continued to rise with a capacity utilization rate of 83.4%; demand declined slightly, inventory increased, and apparent demand decreased. Overall, the recent rebound in steel prices affected terminal demand, hot - rolled coil production remained high, and the expectation of loose supply increased. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were adjusting downward with an enlarged green bar. Operationally, short on rebounds with a stop - loss reference of 3400, and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - HC main contract closing price was 3,354 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; HC main contract open interest was 1,412,324 lots, up 20,862 lots; HC contract top 20 net positions were - 117,198 lots, up 9,211 lots; HC10 - 1 contract spread was 43 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 47,049 tons, down 13,892 tons; HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 207 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - In the spot market, prices in Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Tianjin for 4.75 hot - rolled coils remained unchanged. HC main contract basis was 96 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,490 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,040 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 138.4947 million tons, up 241,500 tons; sample coking plant coke inventory was 437,600 tons, up 31,000 tons; sample steel mill coke inventory was 6.3361 million tons, up 100,700 tons; Hebei billet inventory was 1.2173 million tons, down 72,200 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.85%, up 3.47 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.2%, up 4.43 percentage points; sample steel mill hot - rolled coil production was 3.2649 million tons, up 13,500 tons; sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate was 83.40%, up 0.34 percentage points [2]. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 813,000 tons, up 4,200 tons; 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory was 2.9669 million tons, up 42,500 tons; domestic crude steel production was 7.737 million tons, down 229,000 tons; steel net exports were 901,000 tons, down 38,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Automobile production was 2.8154 million vehicles, up 224,300 vehicles; automobile sales were 2.8566 million vehicles, up 263,200 vehicles; air - conditioner production was 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units; household refrigerator production was 9.4532 million units, up 722,500 units; household washing machine production was 10.1318 million units, up 1.3575 million units [2]. Industry News - On September 18, Mysteel information showed that the actual hot - rolled coil production was 3.2649 million tons, up 13,500 tons; factory inventory was 813,000 tons, up 4,200 tons; social inventory was 2.9669 million tons, up 42,500 tons; total inventory was 3.7799 million tons, up 46,700 tons; apparent demand was 3.2182 million tons, down 43,400 tons week - on - week [2]. - In August 2025, China exported 5.63 million tons of steel sheets, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1%; from January to August, cumulative exports were 48.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [2].