客户端 来源：期货日报 春节长假期间，外盘农产品期货市场暗藏波澜，表现偏强。截至2月23日下午，豆油、小麦、白糖等品 种涨幅在3%左右。马年农产品市场是否会出现较好的投资机会呢？市场人士认为，春节长假过后，粮 棉油糖、干鲜林果品，以及肉蛋类商品价格走势将围绕供应、需求、库存这三个重要变量展开，农产品 市场整体热度攀升。 蓄势待发 三大核心变量定乾坤 春耕在即，万物萌动，农产品期市也站在了新的十字路口。在经历了长假前后的波动后，市场究竟在交 易什么？未来真正的机会又在哪里？答案指向一个关键词——核心变量。 "对农产品期货市场而言，核心变量集中在供应、需求、库存三个方面，交易逻辑更是在充分分析和评 判这三个重要变量运行态势的基础上产生的。"河南省郑州市农产品期货交易者张继学告诉期货日报记 者，春节长假过后，粮棉油糖、干鲜林果，以及肉蛋类商品价格的发展趋势均将围绕这三个重要变量展 开，农产品市场行情将呈现"多点开花"的场景。 棉花、白糖方面，重要变量是政策，情绪化行情特征明显。"经过去年11月下旬至今年1月上旬的快速拉 升后，棉花期货主力合约价格在14500~15000元/吨区间震荡，市场主要围绕新季棉花种植面积及 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短期震荡偏强 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 4 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力高开高走，日内走强。120 分钟布林带三轨开口向 上，短期震荡偏强信号，盘中压力关注布林带上轨附近，支撑关注日线的 20 均 线附近。成交量较昨日增 44.7 万手，持仓量较昨日增 12546 手；日内最高 1234， 最低 1201，收盘 1229，（较昨结算价）涨 25 元/吨，涨幅 2.08%。 2，现货市场：低位震荡。企业装置窄幅波动，徐州丰成停车检修，产量窄 幅下移。下游需求不温不火，保持随用随采。 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1250，基差 21 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 1 月 29 日，国内纯碱产量 78.31 万吨，环比增加 1.14 万 吨，涨幅 1.47%。其中，轻碱产量 36.20 万吨，环比增加 0.32 万吨；重碱产量 42.11 万吨，环比增加 0.82 万吨。综合产能利用率 84.19%，上周 86.42%，环比 下降 2.23%。其中氨碱产能利用率 88.99%，环比增加 1.30%；联产产能利用率 74.65%，环比下降 3.34%。 ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2026 年 02 月 04 日 1 月高频数据跟踪 [Table_Author] 魏争 分析师 Email:weizheng@lczq.com 证书:S1320524100001 摘要： 生产端看，开工率边际回暖，工业品库存、产能利用率分化。开工率方 面，1 月，247 家高炉开工率 78.96%，略有抬升，但仍偏弱；电炉开工 率、螺纹钢开工率分别为 62.44%、38.77%，高于上月均值。水泥磨机开 工率为 27.92%，较上月回落；除沥青外，化工品开工率普遍回升：石油 沥青开工率均值为 26.23%，低于上月；纯碱、PVC、PTA 开工率均值分 别为 84.36%、79.12%、76.10%，均较上月明显提升。库存方面，冷 轧、热卷、浮法玻璃去库，环比增速分别为-3.58%、-7.91%、-7.63%， 螺纹钢、铁矿石、炼焦煤库存上升，环比增速分别为 4.57%、6.65%、 0.36；水泥库容比、水泥发运率环比回落，环比分别为-4.28%、 10.93%。产能利用率方面，焦化产能利用率略下降，录得 76.38%；电炉 产能利用率为 53.74%，较上期均值略提升；水泥熟料 ...

Report Investment Ratings | Product | Rating | | --- | --- | | Urea | ★★☆ | | Methanol | ★★★ | | Pure Benzene | ★★★ | | Propylene | ★☆☆ | | Plastic | ★★☆ | | PVC | ★☆☆ | | Caustic Soda | ★★★ | | PX | ★★★ | | PTA | ★★★ | | Ethylene Glycol | ★★★ | | Short Fiber | ☆☆☆ | | Glass | ★★★ | | Soda Ash | ☆☆☆ | | Bottle Chip | ★★★ | | Propylene | ★★★ | [1] Core Views - The olefin - polyolefin market is weak due to factors such as falling oil prices, reduced downstream demand, and supply pressure [2] - The polyester market faces challenges like price drops, inventory accumulation, and weak demand, but there are potential opportunities in the second quarter [3] - The pure benzene - styrene market has a weakening fundamental outlook with cost support weakening and supply increasing [5] - The coal - chemical market has a weak methanol market and a range - bound urea market [6] - The chlor - alkali market shows a PVC with a potentially strong trend and a weak caustic soda market [7] - The soda ash - glass market has a soda ash facing supply - demand surplus and a glass with potential seasonal inventory build - up but low valuation [8] Summary by Directory Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures: Falling oil prices lead to a pessimistic market sentiment, and reduced downstream demand weakens the support for propylene [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures: There is supply pressure in the polyethylene market, and weak downstream demand and high - price transaction difficulties exist in the polypropylene market [2] Polyester - PX and PTA: Prices fall due to oil prices. There are different outlooks in different periods, with current weak reality and potential opportunities in the second quarter [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory increases, but there is a possibility of supply - demand improvement in the second quarter, while long - term pressure remains [3] - Short Fiber: Good short - term supply - demand pattern but weak downstream orders lead to a price decline following raw materials [3] - Bottle Chip:开工率下降，加工差有所修复，但长期产能压力仍在，短期随原料回落，中期关注库存表现 [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene: Spot price in East China rises, and there are expectations of increased utilization of downstream comprehensive production capacity, but the fundamental outlook is weakening [5] - Styrene: Futures price falls due to cost pressure, and the supply - demand fundamentals are weakening [5] Coal - Chemical - Methanol: Futures price drops, with weak coastal demand and difficult port de - stocking, and short - term行情受地缘风险影响较大 [6] - Urea: Spot price is stable with a slight decline, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC: Night - session trading shows a strong trend, with cost support and good export demand [7] - Caustic Soda: Weak operation due to weak cost support and high inventory pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda Ash: Shows an oscillating trend, with high supply and inventory pressure, and a long - term supply - demand surplus [8] - Glass: Shows a slightly strong oscillating trend, with potential seasonal inventory build - up but low valuation [8]

2 0 2 6 年 2 月 1 光期研究 2 0 2 6年2月P X & P T A & M E G 策略报告 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S PX&PTA&MEG：弱现实与强预期博弈 p 2 | 目 录 | | --- | | 1、PX&PTA&MEG价格：地缘扰动原油价格 | | 2、PX&PTA&MEG供应情况：装置变动不大 | | 3、PX&PTA&MEG进出口情况：印度BIS认证取消 | | 4、PX&PTA&MEG库存情况：下游产成品低利润低库存 | | 5、聚酯需求情况：终端需求面临考验 | | 6、PX&PTA&MEG持仓情况 | p 3 1.1 价格： PX&PTA&MEG期货价格 图表：PTA主力期货收盘价（单位：元/吨） 图表：MEG主力期货收盘价（元/吨） 4000 4200 4400 4600 4800 5000 5200 5400 5600 PTA 3500 3700 3900 4100 4300 4500 4700 4900 2025-01 2025-02 2025-03 2025-04 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp decline in precious metals suppresses the atmosphere of non - ferrous metals, and short - term panic still has a suppressing effect. However, in the long run, the outlook is not pessimistic. Copper prices are expected to gradually stabilize, aluminum prices may stabilize under certain conditions, and different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends [3][5][6]. - The market may return to real - world trading. Tin prices may face a significant correction risk in the short term, nickel prices have a large risk of decline, and lithium prices face pressure but may have short - term support at the bottom [15][17][19]. - The stainless steel price has strong support at the bottom, and a long - position layout can be considered at around 14,000 yuan/ton [25]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: On Friday, LME copper 3M closed down 4.63% to $13,070/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 103,190 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 1,100 to 174,975 tons, and the domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange weekly inventory increased by 0.7 to 233,000 tons [2]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The supply of copper mines remains tight, the supply of refined copper in China maintains high growth, and the downstream consumption willingness recovers after the copper price drops. The expected surplus is alleviated, and copper prices are expected to gradually stabilize. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract today is 102,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME copper 3M is $12,600 - $13,500/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: On Friday, LME aluminum closed down 3.03% to $3,135/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,600 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 63,000 to 742,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,000 to 145,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased slightly [4]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Domestic inventories are accumulating, but it does not constitute a major negative for prices. LME aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, providing support for aluminum prices. If the volatility of precious metals decreases and domestic inventories perform better than the seasonal average, aluminum prices are expected to stabilize. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract today is 24,300 - 25,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME aluminum 3M is $3,080 - $3,180/ton [5][6]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On Friday, the price of cast aluminum alloy dropped sharply. The main AD2603 contract closed down 4.32% to 22,820 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position increased to 23,900 lots, and the trading volume was 45,500 lots. The warehouse receipts decreased by 400 to 68,200 tons [8]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Although the demand is relatively average, in the context of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply, the price has short - term support [8]. Lead - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 1.69% to 16,918 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell by $42 to $2,004/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,675 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 29,400 tons [10]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, the smelting profit is supported by high - priced silver, the TC is at a low level, the primary lead production rate remains relatively high, and the primary lead ingot inventory is accumulating. The inventory of recycled waste has increased, the recycled smelting profit has slightly declined, but the recycled lead production rate has increased marginally. The downstream battery enterprise production rate has slightly declined. The industry situation is weak. Pay attention to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2 on the sector sentiment [11][12]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.46% to 25,860 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S fell by $62.5 to $3,399/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 25,790 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 28,500 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 109,800 tons [13]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: In the industrial sector, the zinc ore raw material inventory has increased, the decline rate of zinc ore has slowed down. The LME zinc ingot inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the LME zinc 3 - 15 month spread has increased. The overseas natural gas price has increased, causing concerns about the cost of European smelting enterprises. The zinc price is still in the process of following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase. Pay attention to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2 on the sector sentiment [13]. Tin - **Market Information**: On January 30, the tin price冲高回落, and the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 409,000 yuan/ton, down 8.32% from the previous day. The SHFE inventory increased by 30 to 8,524 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged at 7,095 tons [14]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: In the context of the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventory, it is expected that the tin price may have a large correction risk in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 370,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is $47,000 - $51,000/ton [15]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 30, the nickel price dropped significantly, and the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 140,000 yuan/ton, down 5.07% from the previous day. The spot market premiums remained stable. The nickel ore price remained stable, and the nickel iron price fluctuated upward [16]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The nickel price has a large risk of decline in the short term. The market may return to real - world trading, and the high premium of refined nickel over nickel iron and the significant increase in domestic nickel inventory put pressure on the nickel price. It is recommended to sell short on rallies. The short - term reference operating range for Shanghai nickel is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for LME nickel 3M is $16,000 - $18,000/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 155,107 yuan, down 5.71% from the previous working day and 11.28% for the week. The LC2605 contract closed at 148,200 yuan, down 10.08% from the previous day's closing price and 18.36% for the week [18][19]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Last week, the bullish sentiment cooled down, and the stop - profit orders increased significantly, causing the lithium price to decline rapidly. The total position of lithium carbonate contracts decreased by 15.9% for the week. Although the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are expected to improve, the sustainability of supply - side contraction is uncertain, and there is significant pressure on the upside of the lithium price. In the context of low downstream inventories, there may be short - term support at the bottom. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate main contract is 136,000 - 158,000 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On January 30, 2026, the alumina index fell 1.64% to 2,768 yuan/ton, and the unilateral trading total position decreased by 32,900 to 613,500 lots. The Shandong spot price was 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 213 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was $304/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 79 yuan/ton. The Friday futures warehouse receipts were 171,100 tons, an increase of 9,600 tons from the previous day [21]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: After the rainy season, the shipments from Guinea are gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. The ore price is expected to decline oscillatingly. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The market has increased expectations for the implementation of supply - contraction policies, but there are still three difficulties for continuous rebound. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,700 - 2,950 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Friday at 15:00, the stainless steel main contract closed at 14,585 yuan/ton, up 0.83% (+120). The unilateral position was 293,500 lots, a decrease of 1,534 lots from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets changed slightly. The raw material prices were relatively stable, and the futures inventory increased by 4,641 to 43,579 tons. The social inventory decreased to 904,500 tons, a 2.91% increase month - on - month, and the 300 - series inventory was 616,700 tons, a 2.86% increase month - on - month [24]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Last week, the market volatility increased significantly. The sharp decline in precious metal prices on Friday dragged down the non - ferrous metal sector, and the market sentiment was affected. The downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, and the inventory turnover speed slowed down. The supply side has significantly contracted. The core upward logic has not changed, and the price has strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to lightly lay out long positions at around 14,000 yuan/ton. The reference range for the main contract is 13,800 - 14,700 yuan/ton [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is "oscillating and slightly bullish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Currently, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash remains high, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output is increasing. Recently, a glass production line has resumed production, leading to a slight recovery in the rigid demand for soda ash. In the short - term, the futures market is affected by anti - involution sentiment and energy price increases, showing a strong trend. However, the continuously increasing high inventory pressure will still limit the price rebound space. Therefore, the short - term futures price is expected to oscillate and be slightly bullish. It is necessary to continue to monitor changes in downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The main soda ash futures contract opened higher and strengthened during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands showed an opening horn, indicating a short - term oscillating and slightly bullish signal. The intraday pressure was near the previous secondary high, and the support was near the 20 - day moving average of the daily line. The trading volume increased by 331,000 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest increased by 7,400 lots. The intraday high was 1225, the low was 1193, and the closing price was 1224, up 31 yuan/ton or 2.6% compared to the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: It was weakly stable. The enterprise equipment was operating stably, with supply remaining at a high level. Some enterprises had maintenance plans in early February. Downstream purchasing sentiment was poor, and transactions were mainly based on low - price restocking [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 26 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the domestic soda ash output was 783,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,400 tons or 1.47%. Among them, the light soda ash output was 362,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons; the heavy soda ash output was 421,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,200 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.19%, down 2.23% month - on - month from 86.42% last week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 88.99%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 74.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.34%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 88.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,544,200 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons or 0.21% compared to Monday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 82,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,200 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 716,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,400 tons. It increased by 23,000 tons or 1.52% compared to last Thursday. The inventory at the same time last year was 1,845,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30,090 tons or 16.31% [2] - **Demand**: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 760,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.94%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 97.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 9.92%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, the purchasing enthusiasm was poor, and the consumption was mainly based on inventory and low - price rigid demand purchasing [2][3] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production method was - 26.5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.5 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 88.35 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.95 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt was stable, the price of thermal coal oscillated downward, and the cost decreased slightly [3] Main Logic Summary - The high capacity utilization rate and the release of new production capacity lead to an increase in overall output. The resumption of a glass production line has slightly increased the rigid demand for soda ash. The short - term futures market is affected by anti - involution sentiment and energy price increases, but the high inventory pressure limits the price rebound space. The short - term futures price is expected to oscillate and be slightly bullish [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not clearly rated [1] - Methanol: Not clearly rated [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆★ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ★☆★ [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Olefins: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend with different products having different supply - demand situations and price trends. Some products are expected to have inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, while others may see supply contractions or demand improvements in the future [2][3] - Different products' investment opportunities vary, such as considering PX processing difference long - positions and positive spreads for PX and PTA in the second quarter, and seizing segmental market opportunities for ethylene glycol [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose, with no obvious supply pressure, reduced premium in real - order auctions, and increased downstream factory's wait - and - see sentiment [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures rose, but with limited fundamental support. Polyethylene will face increased supply pressure and weakened demand. Polypropylene has some support from supply, but overall demand is weak [2] Polyester - PX has new capacity in the second half of the year while PTA has none. There is an expected inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival due to demand decline. There are investment opportunities in the second quarter but need downstream demand cooperation [3] - Ethylene glycol has a small decline in weekly output, expected supply - demand double - drop and inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival. There may be a phased improvement in the second quarter, but it is still under long - term pressure [3] - Short - fiber enterprises have high loads and low inventory, but downstream orders are weak. The price rises with raw materials due to increased downstream stocking [3] - Bottle - chip's processing difference is repaired, and it rises with market sentiment in the short term, but still faces long - term capacity pressure [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures rose, with reduced supply and increased demand from styrene, leading to significant inventory reduction in East China ports. The short - term market is expected to be volatile and strong, and slow inventory reduction in the long - term [5] - Styrene futures rose, but the high price may restrict its upward space due to downstream's high - price aversion and reduced industry profit [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures rose in the afternoon. There is a short - term expectation of strong market due to expected import reduction in the first quarter and macro - atmosphere boost, despite high port inventory [6] - Urea futures showed a strong - side oscillation. With increased downstream factory开工 and agricultural demand approaching, it is likely to continue strong - side oscillation in the range [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC is running strongly. There is still inventory pressure, but it is expected to have a rising center of gravity due to possible capacity reduction and export rush [7] - Caustic soda futures are in an oscillating trend. The industry has high inventory and high - level operation. The profit of chlor - alkali integration is expected to be further compressed [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is in an oscillating and strong - side trend. It still faces supply - demand surplus pressure, with a short - term low - valuation following macro - fluctuations and a long - term high - selling strategy [8] - Glass is in a strong - side trend. There may be inventory accumulation pressure due to downstream holidays, and it may follow macro - sentiment fluctuations [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic growth is characterized by slower steel inventory accumulation compared to previous years, with power plant daily consumption fluctuating at a high level, while inflation shows a nationwide increase in pork prices and oil prices oscillating within a range [2][3] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Economic Growth: Slower Steel Inventory Accumulation than Previous Years 3.1.1 Production: High - level Fluctuation of Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption is fluctuating at a high level. On January 20, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 857,000 tons, a 3.8% increase from January 13. On January 16, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.152 million tons, a 5.3% decrease from January 8 [5][12] - The overall blast furnace operating rate has declined. On January 16, the national blast furnace operating rate was 78.8%, a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease from January 9, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.5%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from January 9. However, the blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills increased by 0.8 percentage points to 90.8% on January 16 compared to January 9 [5][16] - The tire operating rate has significantly rebounded. On January 15, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 62.9%, a 4.9 - percentage - point increase from January 8, and the operating rate of semi - steel car tires was 73.4%, a 7.6 - percentage - point increase from January 8. Meanwhile, the operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has continued to decline [5][19] 3.1.2 Demand: Slower Steel Inventory Accumulation than Previous Years - The sales volume of new houses in 30 cities has weakened month - on - month. From January 1 - 20, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 160,000 square meters, a 48.0% decrease from the same period in December, a 39.5% decrease from the same period in January last year, and a 38.4% decrease from the same period in January 2024 [5][25] - The retail growth of the automotive market is weak. In January, retail sales decreased by 32% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 40% year - on - year [5][29] - Steel prices have declined weakly. On January 20, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil decreased by 0.6%, 0.5%, 0.6%, and 0.3% respectively compared to January 13. The inventory accumulation of steel is slower than in previous years [5][34] - Cement prices have continued to break previous lows. On January 20, the national cement price index decreased by 0.6% compared to January 13, with prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions showing slightly weaker performance than the national average [5][37] - The glass price has ended its rebound. On January 20, the active glass futures contract price was 1,064 yuan/ton, a 4.9% decrease from January 13 [5][42] - The near - end decline of the container shipping freight rate index has widened. On January 16, the CCFI index increased by 4.2% compared to December 26, while the SCFI index decreased by 0.5% [5][46] 3.2 Inflation: Nationwide Increase in Pork Prices 3.2.1 CPI: Nationwide Increase in Pork Prices - Pork prices have increased nationwide. On January 20, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.5 yuan/kg, a 2.4% increase from January 13. The month - on - month price has turned upward [5][50] - The agricultural product price index has increased seasonally before the Spring Festival. On January 20, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 1.6% compared to January 13. By variety, the price increases are in the order of eggs (5.7%) > pork (2.4%) > vegetables (2.4%) > fruits (1.3%) > mutton (0.7%) > beef (0.4%) > chicken (- 1.3%) [5][54] 3.2.2 PPI: Oil Price Oscillation within a Range - Oil prices are oscillating within a range. On January 20, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $68.1 and $60.4 per barrel respectively, a 0.9% and 1.3% decrease from January 13 [5][57] - Copper and aluminum prices have declined. On January 20, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 2.3% and 1.5% respectively compared to January 13. The domestic commodity index has turned upward month - on - month [5][61] - Industrial product prices have shown mixed month - on - month changes. Since January, the prices of glass, coking coal, coke, and steam coal have increased month - on - month, while other industrial product prices have decreased month - on - month. Most of the year - on - year declines in industrial product prices have converged [64]

Oil Market - WTI prices were not available due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, while Brent crude for March closed at $63.94 per barrel, down $0.19, a decrease of 0.30% [2][15] - Domestic crude oil production in China for 2025 is projected to be 21,605 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with processing volume at 73,759 million tons, up 4.1% [2][15] - The market is currently experiencing a seasonal decline in diesel and gasoline demand, with oil prices showing no significant driving force, maintaining a volatile trend [2][15] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil (FU2603) rose by 0.12% to 2,538 yuan per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil (LU2603) increased by 0.07% to 3,060 yuan per ton [16] - Supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to be sufficient, with Singapore receiving approximately 290-300 million tons in January, up from 260-270 million tons in December [16] - The geopolitical situation in Iran continues to significantly impact oil prices, with fluctuations expected to follow oil price movements [16][4] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt (BU2602) increased by 0.29% to 3,142 yuan per ton, with concerns over raw material supply easing slightly [17] - The market is currently facing a "weak demand reality" against a backdrop of "strong cost expectations," particularly as winter weather impacts demand [17] Rubber - The main contract for rubber (RU2605) fell by 90 yuan per ton to 15,745 yuan per ton, with NR and BR contracts also experiencing declines [18] - China's rubber tire exports for 2025 are expected to reach 9.65 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [18] - Inventory levels for natural rubber in Qingdao increased, indicating a seasonal accumulation trend [18] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5,030 yuan per ton, up 0.24%, while EG2605 fell by 1.08% to 3,755 yuan per ton [19] - PX futures closed at 7,106 yuan per ton, with a slight increase of 0.28%, and the market is expected to see some support due to supply reductions [19] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were reported at 2,207 yuan per ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $262 to $266 per ton [21] - Domestic supply remains stable, but demand is under pressure due to reduced operating rates in MTO facilities [21] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices are under pressure, with production margins for various methods showing negative values [22] - Demand is expected to recover slightly in early January, but inventory levels are anticipated to rise as the month progresses [22] PVC - PVC prices have decreased, with the market experiencing a supply-demand imbalance and overall bearish sentiment [23] - The upcoming end of export tax rebates is expected to increase upward pressure on long-term contracts [23] Urea - Urea futures prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 1,772 yuan per ton, down 1.45% [24] - Market sentiment is declining, with production rates and demand showing signs of weakness ahead of the Spring Festival [24] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices are fluctuating, with the main contract closing at 1,192 yuan per ton, down 0.33% [25] - The industry is facing pressure from supply and demand dynamics, with cautious sentiment prevailing in the market [25] Glass - Glass futures prices fell significantly, with the main contract closing at 1,070 yuan per ton, down 2.9% [26] - The market is experiencing a supply recovery, but demand remains cautious, leading to a bearish outlook [26]