1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose significantly. The US existing - home sales index in August increased by 0.5% year - on - year, reaching a five - month high, and mortgage rate cuts boosted the housing market. Domestically, the Political Bureau meeting was held on the 29th, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd. LME copper inventory decreased by 500 tons to 143,900 tons, Comex inventory increased by 837 tons to 293,211 tons, and domestic copper social inventory increased by 0.82 million tons to 14.83 million tons. Due to the approaching holiday, downstream purchases were cautious. The impact of the mine accident at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia has not been fully eliminated, and it will impact global copper supply in Q4 and 2026. The copper quarterly average price is expected to rise, and investors are advised to go long on dips. They can also focus on the price differences between Comex and LME copper and between domestic and international markets [1]. Aluminum - Alumina was oscillating weakly, with AO2601 closing at 2,878 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.52%, and open interest increasing by 11,494 lots to 304,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum was oscillating strongly, with AL2510 closing at 20,770 yuan/ton, a gain of 0.31%, and open interest decreasing by 2,320 lots to 202,000 lots. Aluminum alloy was also oscillating strongly. The SMM alumina price dropped to 2,982 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot was at a discount of 10 yuan/ton. Before the holiday, short - position holders took profits and reduced positions, and the downward pressure on alumina eased. Investors are advised to operate with light positions, avoid shorting at low levels, and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Due to the double - festival and typhoon - related shutdowns, the processing industry's holiday this year is slightly longer than last year. The market is pinning its hopes on the "Silver October" for consumption. During the holiday, the US will release September ISM manufacturing PMI and non - farm payroll data, and investors should be cautious about large external market fluctuations. They are advised to hold light positions during the holiday and focus on the inventory build - up of aluminum ingots during the holiday and the inventory - consumption trend after the holiday [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel rose 1.12% to $15,325/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.78% to 122,000 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 1,188 tons to 231,312 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 96 tons to 25,057 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month spread remained negative, and the import nickel premium remained at 325 yuan/ton. Nickel ore prices were relatively stable. Stainless steel weekly inventory continued to decline, with the total social inventory of 89 warehouses in the mainstream markets at 984,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.26%. The cost of ferronickel increased, strengthening cost support, but supply increased month - on - month. In the new energy sector, ternary demand in September weakened slightly month - on - month, but cobalt policies may lead to a relatively tight supply of MHP. The weekly social inventory of primary nickel in LME and domestic markets increased slightly. Due to macro factors, supply - side disruptions, and rising raw material prices, the bottom of nickel prices may rise slightly, but inventory remains a resistance to price increases [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: On September 29th, the price of flat - copper was 82,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 275 yuan from September 26th; the premium of flat - copper remained at - 40 yuan/ton; the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong was 74,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the refined - scrap spread in Guangdong decreased by 270 yuan to 2,284 yuan; the prices of oxygen - free copper rods and low - oxygen copper rods in Shanghai decreased by 200 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 500 tons to 143,900 tons, and Comex inventory increased by 1,114 tons to 292,371 tons. The domestic + bonded area social inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons to 21.6 million tons [3]. Lead - Market prices: On September 29th, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan from September 26th; the premium of 1 lead ingots in East China decreased by 10 yuan to - 140 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 600 tons to 218,825 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) warehouse receipts decreased by 2,818 tons to 31,946 tons [3]. Aluminum - Market prices: On September 29th, the Wuxi quotation was 20,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan from September 26th; the Nanhai quotation was 20,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan; the Nanhai - Wuxi spread increased by 10 yuan to - 70 yuan; the spot premium was - 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 2,100 tons to 515,600 tons, and the SHFE total inventory decreased by 3,108 tons to 124,626 tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 2.5 million tons to 59.2 million tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 1.4 million tons to 7.2 million tons [4]. Nickel - Market prices: On September 29th, the price of Jinchuan nickel plates was 123,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 425 yuan from September 26th; the price of 1 imported nickel relative to Wuxi increased by 50 yuan to 500 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory increased by 1,188 tons to 231,312 tons, and the SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 826 tons to 29,008 tons [4]. Zinc - Market prices: On September 29th, the main contract settlement price was 21,755 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.3% from September 26th; the SMM 0 spot price was 21,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 320 yuan. - Inventory: The SHFE weekly inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 825 tons to 41,950 tons. The social inventory decreased by 0.7 million tons to 12.84 million tons [6]. Tin - Market prices: On September 29th, the main contract settlement price was 272,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4% from September 26th; the SMM spot price was 271,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,300 yuan. - Inventory: The SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 429 tons to 6,559 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 105 tons to 2,670 tons [6]. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including spot premiums, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventories, SHFE inventories, social inventories, and smelting profits for various non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin, covering data from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][16][24][30][36][42]. Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team at Everbright Futures includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research and a senior precious metals researcher; Wang Heng, who focuses on aluminum and silicon research; and Zhu Xi, who focuses on lithium and nickel research [51][52].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the prices of finished products are showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The economic data in August slowed down and were lower than expected, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales are still weak, and it will take time for the real - estate market to stabilize. The export volume decreased slightly last week and remains in a weak and volatile pattern. The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively firm, and the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils have diverged. Steel mills' profits are gradually narrowing, and the weak characteristics of the market are becoming more prominent. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices still have the risk of decline. The raw material prices are relatively firm, and continuous attention should be paid to the possible disturbances caused by domestic and overseas macro - policies [3]. - The short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate. The overseas iron ore shipments have rebounded to the same - period high, the proximal arrival volume has decreased slightly, and the short - term demand support still exists. The steel mill profitability rate continues to decline, and the port and steel mill inventories have both increased slightly. The terminal data shows that the apparent demand for the five major steel products has increased to some extent, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The rebar data is weak, and the difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar has been strong recently. Attention should be paid to whether the internal contradictions of finished products will be transmitted to the raw material end [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the prices of their main contracts fluctuated higher on September 17. From a disk perspective, they are in a range - bound pattern. The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, mainly due to high - level supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. Ferrosilicon has no obvious contradictions and drivers in its supply - demand fundamentals. Both are likely to follow the trend of the black - sector market, and their operational cost - effectiveness is relatively low [8][9][11]. - The price of industrial silicon fluctuated and strengthened. The fundamentals of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand have not changed fundamentally. The short - term valuation is neutral. If the market continues to discuss topics such as "anti - involution", the price may rise further under the expected drive; otherwise, the weak fundamentals will limit the price increase. The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policy narratives. Before the actual progress of capacity integration, the disk price is prone to fluctuate with the ebb and flow of sentiment [13][14][16]. - For glass, the industry supply has increased slightly, and the enterprise inventory has decreased. The pre - holiday stocking has promoted inventory reduction, but the market supply is still abundant, and the terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish. For soda ash, the industry supply has contracted slightly, mainly due to the maintenance of production lines. Some downstream enterprises have pre - holiday stocking needs, but most are still purchasing based on rigid demand. The market trading atmosphere is tepid, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [18][19]. - Although the black - sector prices still have the risk of short - term phased decline under the influence of real - demand, in the face of the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary easing, and the opening of China's policy space after the US enters the interest - rate cut cycle, the black - sector may gradually have the cost - effectiveness of long - allocation in the future, and the key node may focus on the "Fourth Plenary Session" around mid - October [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The closing price of the main rebar contract was 3168 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.063%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 6300 tons, and the position increased by 7123 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3390 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.35%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the position increased by 523 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 804.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.12% (+ 1.00), and the position increased by 2092 lots to 53.45 million lots. The weighted position was 84.05 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 43.25 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.10% [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: On September 17, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) rose 0.77% to close at 5990 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, with a basis of 20 yuan/ton [8]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main ferrosilicon contract (SF511) rose 1.16% to close at 5766 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 yuan/ton [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) was 8965 yuan/ton, up 0.56% (+ 50). The weighted contract position decreased by 2096 lots to 510223 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - permeable silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the basis was 135 yuan/ton; the 421 price was 9600 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 165 yuan/ton [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract (PS2511) was 53490 yuan/ton, down 0.34% (- 180). The weighted contract position decreased by 4424 lots to 289544 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were 49.5 yuan/kg, 51.05 yuan/kg, and 52.55 yuan/kg respectively, with a basis of - 940 yuan/ton [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: On Wednesday at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1234 yuan/ton, down 0.24% (- 3). The prices in North China and Central China were 1150 yuan and 1130 yuan respectively. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 146.7 million cases (- 2.33%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 12356 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 26149 lots [18]. - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1334 yuan/ton, down 0.37% (- 5). The price in Shahe was 1239 yuan, down 5 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 2.46 million tons (- 2.33%), with the heavy - soda inventory decreasing by 3.74 million tons and the light - soda inventory increasing by 1.28 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders decreased their positions by 7884 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 13693 lots [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Polyolefin: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply of olefins - polyolefins is polarized, with tight supply of propylene and stable supply of polyolefins. Market performance varies due to different demand situations [2] - The price of pure benzene is weakly operating, but there may be improvements in the third - quarter supply - demand situation. The price of styrene has certain support [3] - In the polyester industry, PX and PTA prices are related, and the demand for polyester products shows a positive trend, but there are also issues such as high inventory [5] - The methanol market may stabilize after a weak period, while the urea market is expected to remain weak [6] - The PVC market is under supply pressure and may decline, and the caustic soda market will likely fluctuate widely [7] - The soda ash market may be short - sold at high prices, and the glass market is expected to fluctuate widely [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly around the 5 - day moving average, with tight supply and strong downstream demand. Polyolefin futures are in a low - level range, with stable supply but slow demand growth [2] Pure Benzene - The price of pure benzene fluctuates above 6000 yuan/ton, with increasing supply and demand, and a weak price due to factors such as poor downstream profitability. The price of styrene has certain support due to device maintenance [3] Polyester - PX price rebounds, PTA follows up slightly, and the demand for polyester products is improving, but there are issues such as high inventory. Ethylene glycol has a strong basis, and short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol market may stabilize after a weak period, with port inventory accumulation and expected demand improvement. The urea market is expected to remain weak due to factors such as high inventory and weak demand [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC has supply pressure and may decline due to new device production. Caustic soda has a differentiated performance in different regions and is expected to fluctuate widely [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash supply is slightly reduced, and the market may be short - sold at high prices. Glass production capacity is increasing slightly, and the price may fluctuate widely [8]

Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: August 21, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: Port inventories are accumulating significantly due to high imports and current inventories. The domestic supply is expected to return, and traditional demand will enter the peak season. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the demand can support after the domestic supply returns. If the inventory deteriorates significantly, methanol is likely to experience a valuation decline [2]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies is neutral year - on - year. The upstream two major oil companies are accumulating inventory, while coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 150 in North China and - 100 in East China. The import profit is around - 100 with no further increase for now. In August, the number of maintenance activities decreased month - on - month, and the domestic linear production increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [7]. - **Polypropylene**: The upstream two major oil companies are accumulating inventory, and the middle - stream is reducing inventory. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been performing well this year. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month, and the downstream orders are average currently. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH device maintenance activities, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 450. The downstream operating rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventory reduction of the middle and upstream has slowed down. Attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, and attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [7]. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From August 14 to August 20, the daily changes in动力煤期货price were 0,江苏现货price increased by 25,华南现货price increased by 10,鲁南折盘面price decreased by 5,西南折盘面price remained unchanged,河北折盘面price decreased by 60,西北折盘面price remained unchanged, CFR中国and CFR东南亚prices remained unchanged,进口利润remained unchanged,主力基差decreased by 5, and盘面MTO利润remained unchanged [2]. - **Market Situation**: Port inventories are high, and the domestic supply is expected to return. Traditional demand will enter the peak season later. It is necessary to focus on the demand - supply balance after the domestic supply returns [2]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From August 14 to August 20,东北亚乙烯price remained unchanged,华北LLprice increased by 20,华东LLprice remained unchanged,华东LDprice decreased by 25,华东HDprice decreased by 30, LL美金and LL美湾prices remained unchanged,进口利润remained unchanged,主力期货price increased by 40,基差increased by 10,两油库存remained unchanged, and仓decreased by 40 [7]. - **Market Situation**: The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is different in different regions. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 100. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and other price differences are fluctuating. The number of maintenance activities in August decreased month - on - month, and the domestic linear production increased month - on - month [7]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From August 14 to August 20,山东丙烯price decreased by 20,东北亚丙烯price remained unchanged,华东PPprice decreased by 40,华北PPprice decreased by 15,山东粉料price decreased by 10,华东共聚price decreased by 28, PP美金and PP美湾prices remained unchanged,出口利润remained unchanged,主力期货price increased by 40,基差remained unchanged,两油库存remained unchanged, and仓单decreased by 100 [7]. - **Market Situation**: The upstream two major oil companies are accumulating inventory, and the middle - stream is reducing inventory. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been good. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month, and the downstream orders are average [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From August 14 to August 20,西北电石price remained unchanged,山东烧碱price remained unchanged,电石法 - 华东price decreased by 20,乙烯法 - 华东,电石法 - 华南, and电石法 - 西北prices remained unchanged,进口美金价（CFR中国）remained unchanged,出口利润remained unchanged,西北综合利润remained unchanged,华北综合利润remained unchanged, and基差(高端交割品) remained unchanged [7]. - **Market Situation**: The basis remains stable. The downstream operating rate is seasonally weakening, and the inventory reduction of the middle and upstream has slowed down. Attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability from July to August [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the report presents a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping futures, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. Different markets show diverse trends and are influenced by a variety of factors such as policy, supply - demand relationships, and international events. For example, the stock index futures market is boosted by TMT sectors and policy expectations; the treasury bond futures market is under pressure due to multiple negative factors; the precious metals market fluctuates with geopolitical events; and various commodity markets are affected by their own supply - demand fundamentals [2][5][8] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share major indices rose significantly on Monday, with TMT sectors leading the gain. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased, and their basis was further repaired. Policy expectations and market sentiment are positive, but near the interim report performance period, profit improvement needs data verification. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 at the strike price of around 6600 with a mild bullish view [2][3][4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and bond yields rose significantly. Affected by multiple negative factors such as the central bank's monetary policy report, the rising stock market, and tax - period capital convergence, the bond market sentiment weakened. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term and focus on market sentiment and key interest rate support levels [5][7] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fluctuated. The meeting of leaders from the US, Ukraine, and Europe brought hope for easing the Russia - Ukraine conflict, increasing risk appetite. Gold prices closed slightly down, and silver prices closed slightly up. It is recommended to build a bullish spread strategy through gold call options when the price corrects, and maintain a low - buying strategy for silver or build a bullish spread option strategy [8][9][10] Container Shipping Futures (EC) - The spot prices of major shipping companies vary, and the container shipping index shows a mixed trend. The market is in a weak - shock state. Due to high container growth and weak European demand, it is expected that the price of the October off - season contract will be lower than last year. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract [11][12] Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper is high, suppressing downstream procurement. The short - term trading focus is on interest - rate cut expectations. The supply of copper concentrate is slightly relaxed, and domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline slightly in August. The inventory shows a mixed trend. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 78000 - 79500 [13][15][16] - **Alumina**: The spot price shows a north - south differentiation. The production capacity is expected to increase slightly in August. The inventory of ports decreases, and the registered warehouse receipts increase. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely between 3000 - 3300 in the short term, and it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium term [17][18] - **Aluminum**: The spot price of aluminum decreases. The production capacity is stable, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreases, leading to an increase in inventory. Affected by the expansion of US import tariffs, the price is under pressure. It is expected that the price will be under high - level pressure in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 20000 - 21000 [20][21] - **Aluminum Alloy**: In the off - season, terminal consumption is weak, and the social inventory in major consumption areas is close to full. The supply is affected by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and the demand is suppressed by the off - season. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, and the main contract is expected to trade between 19600 - 20400 [22][23] - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc decreases. The supply of zinc ore is in a loose cycle, and the production of refined zinc increases. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory shows a mixed trend. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate, and the main contract is expected to trade between 22000 - 23000 [23][24][26] - **Tin**: The spot price of tin decreases. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the import volume is low. The demand is weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and the entry of the electronics off - season. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [27][28][29] - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel increases slightly. The production of refined nickel is at a high level, and the demand is generally stable. The overseas inventory is high, and the domestic inventory increases slightly. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 118000 - 126000 [29][30][31] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel increases slightly. The cost is supported, but the demand is weak. The production is expected to increase in August, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is expected that the price will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 12800 - 13500 [32][33][35] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate increases. The supply is affected by disturbances, and the demand is optimistic. The inventory decreases slightly. It is expected that the price will be strong in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 86000 - 92000. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and try to go long lightly at low prices [36][37][39] Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The cost increased, and the steel mill's profit improved. The supply increased, and the demand decreased, with inventory accumulating mainly in traders. Considering the expected production restrictions in the middle and late August, it is expected that the price will remain high and fluctuate, and the support levels for hot - rolled coils and rebar are around 3400 and 3150 respectively [40][41][42] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore decreased slightly. The global shipment increased, and the port arrival volume decreased. The demand from steel mills was high, and the inventory increased slightly. Considering the production restrictions of Hebei steel mills in the late period, it is recommended to short at high prices [43][44] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price fell. The supply from domestic mines decreased slightly, and the import of Mongolian coal was stable. The demand from downstream industries was high but slowed down. The inventory was at a medium level. It is recommended to short at high prices for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse spread for arbitrage [45][47][48] - **Coke**: The sixth round of price increase for coke was implemented, and the seventh round was initiated. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was still resilient. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to short at high prices for the 2601 contract and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread for arbitrage [49][50] Agricultural Products - **Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: The spot price of soybean meal increased slightly, and the trading volume increased. The开机 rate of oil mills decreased slightly. The fundamental news shows that the US soybean crushing volume increased, and the EU's oilseed import decreased. The USDA report supported the US soybean price, but there was still upward pressure. It is recommended to take long - term long positions at low prices [51][52][53] - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs fluctuated at a low level. The profit of pig farming varied, and the average weight of pigs increased slightly. With the expected increase in group - farmed pig sales in August and the need for small - scale farmers to sell large - weight pigs, the future pig price is not optimistic. It is not recommended to short blindly for far - month contracts [54][55] - **Corn**: The spot price of corn was mixed. The supply pressure was obvious, and the demand was weak. The inventory in Guangzhou ports decreased. It is expected that the corn price will be weak and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [56][57][58] - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price oscillated at the bottom, and the domestic sugar price oscillated at a high level. The Brazilian sugar production increased, and the Indian sugar production was expected to increase. The domestic sugar import in July was expected to be much higher than last year. It is recommended to maintain a short - on - rebound strategy [59] - **Cotton**: After the cotton price stabilized in early August, the industrial downstream improved slightly. The inventory of cotton yarn decreased slightly, and the spinning mill's operation rate remained stable. The cotton price has support at low levels, and it is expected to oscillate, paying attention to the traditional peak - season demand [60]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The black market continues to be weak with a double - top pattern in technical form. Steel production remains high, and demand seasonally declines in August, leading to inventory increases. There is an expectation of production restrictions in mid - to - late August, which is beneficial for alleviating the pressure on the peak season. Prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation, waiting for clear peak - season demand. Pay attention to the support levels of around 3400 yuan for hot - rolled coils and 3200 yuan for rebar [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3360 yuan/ton to 3320 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price dropped from 3331 yuan/ton to 3302 yuan/ton. The spot price of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased from 3470 yuan/ton to 3450 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price dropped from 3461 yuan/ton to 3433 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 3060 yuan/ton, and plate billet prices remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. Profits from hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, with East China's profit dropping by 44 yuan to 226 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 0.2 to 240.7, a 0.1% increase. The output of five major steel products increased by 2.4 to 871.6, a 0.3% increase. Rebar production decreased slightly by 0.7 to 220.5, a 0.3% decrease, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.7 to 315.6, a 0.2% increase [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 23.5 to 1375.4, a 1.7% increase. Rebar inventory increased by 10.4 to 556.7, a 1.9% increase, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 8.7 to 356.6, a 2.5% increase [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The daily average building materials trading volume decreased by 0.8 to 8.4, an 8.2% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 14.7 to 831.0, a 1.7% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 20.9 to 189.9, a 9.9% decrease, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 8.5 to 314.8, a 2.8% increase [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The 2601 - contract of iron ore showed a volatile downward trend. Global iron ore shipments and 45 - port arrivals decreased. On the demand side, steel mill profit margins are at a relatively high level, and pig iron output has slightly decreased from its high level. Port inventories have slightly increased, and the shipping volume has decreased. In the future, pig iron output in August will remain high, and steel mill profits will support raw materials. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see for single - side trading, and to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore for arbitrage [4]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased, such as the cost of Carajás fines dropping from 808.8 yuan/ton to 797.8 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 6.5 to - 38.0, a 20.6% decrease, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 5.5 to 16.0, a 52.4% increase [4]. - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: Spot prices at Rizhao Port for various iron ore types decreased. For example, the price of Carajás fines dropped from 888.0 yuan/ton to 878.0 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines decreased from 784.0 yuan/ton to 771.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrivals decreased by 125.9 to 2381.9, a 5.0% decrease, and the global shipments decreased by 15.1 to 3046.7, a 0.5% decrease. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8, an 8.0% increase [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 240.7, a 0.1% increase. The 45 - port daily average shipping volume increased by 19.1 to 321, a 6.3% increase. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 220.9 to 7190.5, a 3.0% decrease, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 336.1 to 8318.4, a 3.9% decrease [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 93.8 to 13806.08, a 0.7% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.3 to 9013.3, a 0.0% increase, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 1.0 to 21.0, a 5.0% increase [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Coke futures showed a peak - and - decline trend, and there was a sixth - round price increase in the spot market, with a possibility of further increases. Coking plant profits have improved, and production has slightly increased. Pig iron output is expected to slightly decline in August. There is an expectation of a seventh - round price increase, but previous positive expectations may be over - priced. For coking coal, the futures price has declined after reaching a peak, and the spot market is generally stable. Supply has decreased, and demand has slowed down. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see for speculation, and to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore for arbitrage [5]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of first - grade wet - quenched coke in Shanxi increased by 52 to 1347, a 3.9% increase, while the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port decreased by 20 to 1460, a 1.4% decrease. The 09 - contract price of coke decreased by 24 to 1660, a 1.4% decrease [5]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 1260, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) increased by 26 to 1191, a 2.2% increase. The 09 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 35 to 1066, a 3.14% decrease [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.4, a 0.4% increase, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 46.7, a 0.1% decrease. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 2.3 to 856.6, a 0.3% decrease, and the clean coal output increased by 0.4 to 439.4, a 0.1% increase [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4 to 240.7, a 0.2% decrease. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.4, a 0.4% increase, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 46.7, a 0.1% decrease [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased by 19.7 to 887.4, a 2.24% decrease. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 7.2 to 62.5, a 10.4% decrease, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9.5 to 609.8, a 1.5% decrease. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 0.2 to 111.9, a 0.1% decrease, and the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 11.0 to 976.9, a 1.1% decrease [5]. - **Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The calculated coke supply - demand gap decreased by 4.7 to - 4.3, a 9.4% decrease [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the economic growth, inflation, and related price trends in multiple industries. It shows that steel inventory is accumulating faster, power plant daily consumption is rising moderately, and there are various changes in the prices of agricultural products, industrial products, and energy commodities [1][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Economic Growth: Faster Accumulation of Steel Inventory 1.1 Production: Moderate Increase in Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption increased moderately. On August 5, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generation groups was 89.0 tons, up 0.9% from July 29. On August 1, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 223.1 tons, up 0.3% from July 24 [5][12]. - Blast furnace operating rate fluctuated at a high level. On August 1, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.5%, unchanged from July 25; the capacity utilization rate was 90.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from July 25. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 93.3%, up 1.3 percentage points from July 25 [15]. - Tire operating rate declined slightly. On July 31, the operating rate of truck full - steel tires was 61.1%, down 3.9 percentage points from July 24; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 74.5%, down 1.4 percentage points from July 24. The operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was weakly stable [17]. 1.2 Demand: Faster Accumulation of Steel Inventory - New home sales in 30 cities turned negative month - on - month. From August 1 - 5, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 162,000 square meters, down 20.1% from July, 21.2% from August last year, and 40.6% from August 2023 [23]. - The auto market retail was stable and relatively strong. In July, retail sales increased by 7% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 12% year - on - year [24]. - Steel prices corrected. On August 5, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil changed by - 2.3%, - 2.0%, - 1.4%, and + 0.4% respectively compared with July 29 [5][31]. - Cement prices declined at a low level. On August 5, the national cement price index fell 0.6% from July 29. The cement prices in East China and the Yangtze River region fell 1.3% and 0.2% respectively [32]. - Glass prices fell further. On August 5, the active glass futures contract price was 1,073 yuan/ton, down 9.2% from July 29 [36]. - The container shipping freight index continued to decline. On August 1, the CCFI index decreased by 2.3% and the SCFI index decreased by 2.6% compared with July 25 [38]. 2. Inflation: Agricultural Product Price Index at the Second - Lowest Level in the Same Period of the Past 5 Years 2.1 CPI: Agricultural Product Price Index at the Second - Lowest Level in the Same Period of the Past 5 Years - Pork prices remained weak. On August 5, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.3 yuan/kg, down 0.8% from July 29. In August, the average wholesale price of pork decreased month - on - month and the year - on - year decline widened [45]. - The agricultural product price index was at the second - lowest level in the same period of the past 5 years. On August 5, the agricultural product wholesale price index rose 0.7% from July 29. By variety, vegetables (+2.5%) > chicken (+0.9%) > beef (+0.4%) > pork (-0.8%) > eggs (-1.0%) > mutton (-1.1%) > fruits (-2.4%) [49]. 2.2 PPI: Oil Price Decline - Oil prices declined. On August 5, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 69.6 and 65.2 dollars/barrel respectively, down 2.7% and 5.9% from July 29 [54]. - Copper and aluminum prices fell. On August 5, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 1.4% and 1.6% respectively compared with July 29 [58]. - Most industrial product prices rose. Since August, most industrial product prices increased month - on - month, and most of them increased year - on - year. The prices of cement and glass decreased month - on - month, while other industrial products generally increased [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - The steel market shows signs of stabilizing. The recent decline in steel prices was mainly affected by the drop in coking coal prices. In the off - season, the supply and demand of steel are basically balanced, with a small increase in inventory. Steel prices rose in July, and inventory shifted from steel mills to traders. Steel mills have over - sold recently, and forward orders have been received for 20 - 30 days later. In the short term, steel inventory pressure is low, and as demand transitions from the off - season to the peak season, steel prices are expected to be supported. The main risk is the interference from the expected supply of coking coal. It is recommended to take a long - biased approach on price pullbacks and lightly test long positions at the current level [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore 09 contract showed a volatile upward trend. Globally, the iron ore shipping volume decreased month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased. Based on recent shipping data, the average future arrival volume is expected to decline. On the demand side, steel mills' profit margins are at a relatively high level, with a slight increase in maintenance volume and a slight decline in molten iron production, which remains at around 240,000 tons per day. Currently, steel exports remain strong, and the short - term resilience of molten iron is maintained. Terminal demand shows a strong performance during the off - season but weakens month - on - month. In terms of inventory, port inventory decreased slightly, the shipping volume decreased month - on - month, and steel mills' equity ore inventory increased month - on - month. In the future, molten iron production in August will remain high, with an average expected to be around 236,000 tons per day. The improvement in steel mills' profits will support raw materials, and there is a seesaw effect between coking coal and iron ore. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce a stable growth plan for ten key industries, and there are expectations of production restrictions for Hebei steel mills before the September 3rd parade, which may lead to an increase in steel prices and iron ore prices will follow. It is recommended to go long on dips for single - side trading and long iron ore and short steel for arbitrage [4]. Coke - The coking coal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, with significant price fluctuations recently. The fifth round of coke price increase was officially implemented, and port trade quotes remained stable. On the supply side, coal mine复产 is below expectations, and although coking production restrictions have been lifted, production is difficult to increase due to some enterprises' losses. On the demand side, blast furnace molten iron production decreased slightly from a high level, and downstream demand provides support. It is expected that molten iron production will continue to decline slightly in August. In terms of inventory, coking plants' inventory continued to decrease, port inventory increased slightly, and steel mills' inventory decreased. The overall inventory is at a medium level. As steel mills increase inventory replenishment at low prices, it is beneficial for future coke price increases. There is room for hedging due to the premium of coke futures over the spot. In August, there are positive drivers from production restrictions in Shanxi and Hebei for coking and steel industries. There are expectations of a sixth - round price increase in the short term. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse spread for arbitrage, while being cautious of increased market volatility [5]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, with significant price fluctuations. The spot auction prices were stable with a slight upward trend, Mongolian coal quotes stabilized, and large - mine long - term contract prices increased. On the supply side, coal mine operations decreased month - on - month. Due to good sales, coal mines mainly held firm on prices, and the market remained in short supply. In terms of imported coal, Mongolian coal prices stabilized this week after following the futures decline last week, and downstream users continued to replenish inventory. On the demand side, coking operations remained stable, and downstream blast furnace molten iron production decreased slightly from a high level, with continuous downstream inventory replenishment demand. In August, molten iron production is expected to remain at around 236,000 tons per day. In terms of inventory, coal mines continued to rapidly reduce inventory, ports and borders also saw inventory reduction, and downstream actively replenished inventory, with the overall inventory at a medium level. Although the spot fundamentals are under pressure due to the futures market, there are still expectations of coal mine production restrictions in August. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse spread for arbitrage, while being cautious of increased market volatility [5]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - For rebar, spot prices in East China, North China decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while the price in South China remained unchanged. Futures contract prices generally increased slightly. For hot - rolled coils, spot prices in East China increased by 20 yuan/ton, North China decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and South China remained unchanged. Futures contract prices also increased [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar remained unchanged, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased to varying degrees [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron production increased by 2.6 to 242.6 tons, a 1.1% increase. The production of five major steel products increased slightly by 0.5 to 867.4 tons, a 0.1% increase. Rebar production decreased by 0.9 to 211.1 tons, a 0.4% decrease, with electric - arc furnace production increasing by 2.6 to 26.6 tons (a 10.9% increase) and converter production decreasing by 3.5 to 184.5 tons (a 1.9% decrease). Hot - rolled coil production increased by 5.3 to 322.8 tons, a 1.7% increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 15.4 to 1351.9 tons, a 1.2% increase. Rebar inventory increased by 7.6 to 546.3 tons, a 1.4% increase. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.8 to 348.0 tons, an 0.8% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 2.3 to 11.0 tons, a 27.0% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 16.1 to 852.0 tons, a 1.9% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 13.2 to 203.4 tons, a 6.1% decrease. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 4.8 to 320.0 tons, a 1.5% increase [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, with the 09 - contract basis of some powders decreasing. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.5 to - 48.0, a 3.0% increase, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1.5 to 24.5, a 5.8% decrease, and the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indices - Spot prices at Rizhao Port for various iron ore powders increased slightly, and the prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe also increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrival volume increased by 267.3 to 2507.8 tons, an 11.9% increase. The global weekly shipping volume decreased by 139.1 to 3061.8 tons, a 4.3% decrease. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8 tons, an 8.0% increase [4]. Demand - The weekly average daily molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 to 240.7 tons, a 0.6% decrease. The weekly average daily shipping volume at 45 ports decreased by 12.4 to 302.7 tons, a 3.9% decrease. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 220.9 to 7190.5 tons, a 3.0% decrease, and the national monthly crude steel production decreased by 336.1 to 8318.4 tons, a 3.9% decrease [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 28.3 to 13657.9 tons, a 0.2% decrease. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 126.9 to 9012.1 tons, a 1.4% increase. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged at 21.0 days [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke increased. Coke futures contract prices also increased, and the basis decreased. The coking profit decreased [5]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.2 to 64.8 tons, a 0.3% increase, while the daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 47.0 tons, a 0.4% decrease [5]. Demand - The weekly molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 to 240.7 tons, a 0.64% decrease [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 2.8 to 915.4 tons, a 0.3% decrease. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 6.5 to 73.6 tons, an 8.14% decrease, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 13.3 to 626.7 tons, a 2.14% decrease. The port inventory increased by 17.0 to 215.1 tons, an 8.6% increase [5]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 0.8 to - 4.8 tons, a 15.84% increase [5]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Mongolian coking coal warehouse receipts remained unchanged. Coking coal futures contract prices increased, and the basis changed. The coal mine profit increased [5]. Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs FOB price remained unchanged, the Jingtang Port Australian main coking coal ex - warehouse price remained unchanged, and the Guangzhou Port Australian thermal coal ex - warehouse price decreased by 6.0 to 721 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decrease [5]. Supply - The weekly raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 6.4 to 868.7 tons, a 0.7% increase, and the clean coal production increased by 3.1 to 444.1 tons, a 0.7% increase [5]. Demand - The weekly coking production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.2 to 64.8 tons, a 0.3% increase, and the weekly coking production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 47.0 tons, a 0.4% decrease [5]. Inventory - The Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory decreased by 13.9 to 118.8 tons, a 10.5% decrease. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 7.4 to 992.7 tons, a 0.74% increase. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.3 to 803.8 tons, a 0.5% increase. The port inventory decreased by 10.2 to 282.1 tons, a 3.5% decrease [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The industrial silicon price has declined, while the polysilicon price has remained high and stable. The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase significantly in August due to the increase in furnace openings by silicon enterprises. The polysilicon production is also expected to rise, but the demand for silicon wafers may decline. The organic silicon industry has a certain price increase and strong price - holding intention, while the aluminum - silicon alloy industry has weak demand and declining prices. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon - **Cost and Profit**: In the southwest production area, the power cost has decreased during the wet season, while the prices of silicon coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes have rebounded. Overall, the cost side has weak support for the silicon price. The average profit of industrial silicon 553 and 421 in June was - 2,361 yuan/ton and - 2,049 yuan/ton respectively, showing a month - on - month recovery [3][37]. - **Supply**: The number of furnace openings of silicon enterprises has increased. In Xinjiang, the previously reduced - production enterprises have recovered; in Yunnan and Sichuan, the operation has increased steadily. It is expected that more silicon enterprises will increase furnace openings in August, with a significant overall increase in supply [3]. - **Demand**: The incremental demand mainly comes from the polysilicon sector. In July, the output of polysilicon is expected to increase to around 110,000 tons, and there will still be some growth in August. The organic silicon industry has a weak purchase of industrial silicon due to an accident in an individual enterprise, and the demand for silicon - aluminum alloy is weak [3]. - **Inventory**: The futures price has remained high, and the warehouse receipts have stopped decreasing and started to increase. As the price rises, part of the factory inventory has transferred to the intermediate link and futures - cash traders, and the social inventory has decreased [3]. - **Market Outlook**: Recently, with the weakening of macro - sentiment and the increase in enterprise operation, the silicon price support has weakened, and it is expected to maintain a weak consolidation in the short term, with the operating range referring to 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [3]. 2. Polysilicon - **Supply**: In July, some enterprises increased production, mainly in the southwest and Qinghai regions, and some enterprises carried out maintenance. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the monthly output is expected to increase to about 110,000 tons. In August, the wet season and high prices will further stimulate the start - up of polysilicon bases, and the monthly output is expected to increase to about 130,000 tons [3]. - **Demand**: The price of downstream silicon wafers has continued to rise, but the silicon wafer quotation cannot cover the full cost. It is expected that the production schedule in July will drop to about 52GW. The battery orders are short - term positive, and the component end has shown a situation of rising first and then falling [3]. - **Inventory**: As of July 31, the total polysilicon inventory was 229,000 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.15GW. As of August 1, the total polysilicon futures warehouse receipts were 3,200 lots [3]. - **Market Outlook**: Last week, with the weakening of macro - sentiment, the polysilicon price has declined after reaching a high. Fundamentally, the supply side of silicon materials has a strong expectation of incremental supply, and the demand side has no major changes. It is expected that the price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with the operating range referring to 40,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Organic Silicon - **Supply**: In July, the DMC start - up rate was 67.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22 percentage points, and the output was 199,800 tons, showing a month - on - month decline [92]. - **Price**: The organic silicon price has rebounded. As of August 1, the average price of DMC was 12,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.40%; the average price of 107 glue was 12,750 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month; the average price of silicone oil was 14,400 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month [97]. - **Market Situation**: The monomer factories have received orders smoothly, and due to the low factory inventory pressure, they have a strong intention to hold prices. However, because the downstream inventory is sufficient, the purchase intention has declined after restocking [97]. 4. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy - **Supply**: On the week of July 31, the start - up rate of primary aluminum - silicon alloy was 54.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6 percentage points; the start - up rate of recycled aluminum - silicon alloy was 53.1%, remaining flat month - on - month [106]. - **Price**: The aluminum - silicon alloy price has declined. As of August 1, the average price of ADC12 was 20,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%; the average price of A356 was 20,950 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.18% [109].

Research View Copper - Overnight, LME copper rose 0.78% to $9,708.5/ton, and SHFE copper rose 0.19% to CNY 78,370/ton; domestic spot imports remained at a loss [1]. - In June, US factory orders decreased 4.8% month-on-month, slightly better than the expected -5% but significantly lower than the previous value of 8.2%; durable goods orders decreased 9.4% month-on-month, lower than both the expected and previous value of -9.3% [1]. - LME copper inventory decreased by 2,175 tons to 139,575 tons, indicating an end to the phased inventory accumulation; Comex copper inventory increased by 1,360 tons to 236,941 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 1 ton to 20,348 tons; BC copper warehouse receipts remained at 1,553 tons [1]. - During the off - season, terminal orders slowed down, and the procurement rhythm of the processing end maintained at the level of rigid demand. In early August, the market focused on Trump's deadline for Russia, the results of China - US negotiations, etc., and the macro - performance might be weak. There were also concerns about the market's view on US copper in the future under the 0 - tariff policy for US refined copper, the risk of price inversion and inventory relocation, and the contradictions accumulated in the fundamentals during the off - season. However, the expectation of the peak season in September would limit the decline [1]. Aluminum - Alumina fluctuated strongly. Overnight, AO2509 closed at CNY 3,194/ton, up 0.13%, with an increase of 9,804 lots in positions to 139,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly. Overnight, AL2509 closed at CNY 20,440/ton, down 0.07%, with a decrease of 2,632 lots in positions to 224,000 lots. Aluminum alloy also fluctuated weakly. Overnight, the main contract AD2511 closed at CNY 19,865/ton, down 0.08%, with a decrease of 5 lots in positions to 8,241 lots [1]. - The SMM alumina price rebounded to CNY 3,250/ton. The spot discount of aluminum ingots widened to CNY 30/ton. The price of Foshan A00 dropped to CNY 20,490/ton, and the price of Wuxi A00 was at a discount of CNY 20/ton. The processing fees of aluminum rods in Baotou and Henan remained stable, while those in Xinjiang, Nanchang, Linyi, Guangdong, and Wuxi increased by CNY 10 - 50/ton; the processing fees of 1A60 - series aluminum rods remained stable, and the processing fees of 6/8 - series aluminum rods remained stable, while the processing fees of low - carbon aluminum rods decreased by CNY 31/ton [1]. - The relaxation of Guinea's aluminum ore export policy and the return of mining rights of Shunda and Alufa led to an expected increase in supply. With the new production of alumina in Hebei and Guangxi and the impact of imports from Indonesia, the surplus pressure of alumina increased. The production of cast ingots from the replacement capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan continued to rise, and inventory accumulation might continue, putting downward pressure on the aluminum price center. The aluminum alloy in the off - season might follow the logic of Shanghai aluminum, and there was an expectation of spread repair in the peak season of 2511. In August, the supply - demand pattern of the aluminum industry was expected to shift from the upstream to the downstream [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.57% to $15,105/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 0.61% to CNY 120,640/ton. Yesterday, LME inventory remained at 209,082 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 204 tons to 21,170 tons [2]. - In terms of nickel ore, the domestic trade price of nickel ore slightly decreased, and the premium of Indonesian nickel ore slightly decreased. For stainless steel, the raw material prices were differentiated. The transaction price center of nickel iron moved up to CNY 920/nickel point. Due to the previous slowdown in production and the strengthening of prices, the inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, and the stainless - steel crude steel output in August was expected to increase month - on - month [2]. - For primary nickel, the domestic inventory decreased slightly on a weekly basis, and the output in August was expected to increase 2% month - on - month to 33,000 tons. In general, in the short term, nickel and stainless - steel prices were affected by market sentiment and weakened. The fundamentals changed little overall, with support from the prices of nickel iron and intermediate products below and demand suppression above, and the prices continued to fluctuate [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - water copper on August 4, 2025, was CNY 78,395/ton, up CNY 90 from August 1; the flat - water copper premium was CNY 155, up CNY 5 from August 1. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong remained at CNY 73,000/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference in Guangdong increased by CNY 10 to CNY 60 [3]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 2,175 tons to 139,575 tons; SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1 ton to 20,348 tons; total inventory decreased by 880 tons to 72,543 tons. Comex inventory increased by 1,602 tons to 235,579 tons. The domestic + bonded area social inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons to 20.0 million tons [3]. - Other data: The LME0 - 3 premium decreased by $9.3 to - $49.8/ton; the CIF bill of lading price remained at $59.0/ton; the active contract import loss increased by CNY 50 to CNY - 53.6/ton [3]. Lead - Market prices: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was CNY 16,750/ton, up CNY 150 from August 1; the premium of 1 lead ingots in East China remained at - CNY 150; the price difference between the first and second consecutive contracts of SHFE lead remained at - CNY 10. The price of tax - included recycled refined lead (≥pb99.97) and recycled lead (≥pb98.5) increased by CNY 125 to CNY 16,725/ton, and the price of tax - included reduced lead in Shandong decreased by CNY 50 to CNY 14,350/ton [3]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 1,100 tons to 274,225 tons; SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 941 tons to 59,007 tons; weekly inventory increased by 29 tons to 63,283 tons [3]. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium was - $7.2, the CIF bill of lading price was $105.00, and the active contract import loss decreased by CNY 120 to CNY - 302/ton [3]. Aluminum - Market prices: The Wuxi quotation was CNY 20,470/ton, down CNY 60 from August 1; the Nanhai quotation was CNY 20,490/ton, down CNY 30 from August 1; the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference increased by CNY 30 to CNY 20; the spot premium was - CNY 30, down CNY 10 from August 1. The price of low - grade bauxite in Shanxi remained at CNY 600/ton, and the price of high - grade bauxite in Shanxi remained at CNY 640/ton. The FOB price of alumina remained at $377/ton, and the price of Shandong alumina remained at CNY 3,220/ton; the domestic - foreign price difference of alumina remained at CNY 202; the price of pre - baked anodes remained at CNY 6,332/ton [4]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory increased by 925 tons to 463,725 tons; SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,009 tons to 46,649 tons; total inventory increased by 1,737 tons to 117,527 tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory remained at 0.0 million tons, and the alumina social inventory decreased by 1.2 million tons to 4.6 million tons [4]. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium was - $49.65, the CIF bill of lading price was $107.50, and the active contract import loss increased by CNY 20 to CNY - 1171/ton [4]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel plates was CNY 122,500/ton, up CNY 650 from August 1; the Jinchuan nickel - Wuxi price difference increased by CNY 300 to CNY 2,550; the 1 imported nickel - Wuxi price difference increased by CNY 250 to CNY 750. The price of low - nickel iron (1.5 - 1.8%) remained at CNY 3,200/ton, and the price of Indonesian nickel iron (10 - 15%) remained at $0. The price of 1.4% - 1.6% nickel ore at Rizhao Port remained at CNY 465/ton, and the price of 1.8% nickel ore from the Philippines at Lianyungang decreased by CNY 2 to CNY 659/ton. The price of 304 No1 in Foshan and Wuxi increased by CNY 25 to CNY 12,425/ton; the price of 304/2B coils (both rough - edged and trimmed) in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged. The price of domestic nickel sulfate (≥22%) decreased by CNY 300 to CNY 32,300/ton, and the prices of domestic 523 and 622 ordinary products decreased by CNY 2,000 to CNY 213,000/ton and CNY 227,000/ton respectively [4]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory remained at 209,082 tons; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 204 tons to 21,170 tons; weekly nickel inventory increased by 299 tons to 25,750 tons; stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons to 45,451 tons. The nickel social inventory (SHFE + Nanchu + hidden) decreased by 795 tons to 39,486 tons, and the stainless - steel social inventory data was invalid [4]. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium was - $228, the CIF bill of lading price was $85.00, and the active contract import loss increased by CNY 70 to CNY - 1085/ton [4]. Zinc - Market prices: The main contract settlement price on August 4, 2025, was CNY 22,205/ton, down 0.6% from August 1; the LmeS3 price was $2,505.5/ton, unchanged from August 1; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.86, down from 8.92 on August 1; the near - far month price difference increased by CNY 15 to CNY 5. The SMM 0 and 1 spot prices decreased by CNY 130 to CNY 22,170/ton and CNY 22,100/ton respectively; the domestic spot premium average increased by CNY 30 to CNY 20; the imported zinc premium average increased by CNY 30 to - CNY 10. The LME0 - 3 premium decreased by $1.75 to $2.5. The prices of zinc alloys Zamak3 and Zamak5 decreased by CNY 130 to CNY 22,795/ton and CNY 23,345/ton respectively, and the price of zinc oxide (ZnO≥99.7%) decreased by CNY 100 to CNY 21,200/ton [5]. - Inventory: SHFE weekly inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons; LME inventory decreased by 3,825 tons to 97,000 tons; the social inventory increased by 0.28 million tons to 8.72 million tons. SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 75 tons to 14,907 tons, and LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 5,725 tons to 51,350 tons [5]. - Import profit and loss: The active contract import profit was CNY 0, up from - CNY 1,558 on August 1; the CIF bill of lading price was $135 [5]. Tin - Market prices: The main contract settlement price on August 4, 2025, was CNY 266,150/ton, up 0.7% from August 1; the LmeS3 price was $27,540/ton, down 2.1% from August 1; the Shanghai - London ratio was 9.66, up from 9.39 on August 1; the near - far month price difference increased by CNY 140 to - CNY 240. The SMM spot price increased by CNY 1,200 to CNY 265,800/ton. The prices of 60% and 40% tin concentrates decreased by CNY 2,600 to CNY 257,500/ton and CNY 253,500/ton respectively. The domestic spot premium average remained at CNY 700, and the LME0 - 3 premium increased by $15.5 to - $0.5 [5]. - Inventory: SHFE weekly inventory increased by 254 tons to 7,671 tons; LME inventory decreased by 50 tons to 1,900 tons. SHFE registered warehouse receipts increased by 7 tons to 7,293 tons, and LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 25 tons to 1,390 tons [5]. - Import profit and loss: The active contract import profit was CNY 0, up from - CNY 25,128 on August 1; the tariff was 3% [5]. Chart Analysis The report provides multiple charts, including those related to spot premiums, SHFE near - far month price differences, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin, spanning from 2019 to 2025 [6 - 48]. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. With more than a decade of commodity research experience, he has served many leading spot enterprises, published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines, and has been interviewed by many media. His team has won the awards of the 16th and 15th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Teams of Futures Daily & Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non - Ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [50]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon. He has in - depth research on the domestic non - ferrous industry, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers, and has written many in - depth reports [50]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers [51].