1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated and weakened. The import window for domestic spot refined copper remained open, but import profitability declined. The US - Iran conflict and negotiations introduced uncertainties, and the market was still pricing in the macro - environment's variability. However, the macro - suppression has weakened marginally, and fundamental support is emerging. Copper prices are expected to enter a phase of "support at the bottom, lack of upward drive" and oscillate to find the bottom. It is recommended to shift from a previously cautious and bearish strategy to range - bound operations and gradually build long positions at key support levels, while paying attention to copper prices in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. Overseas raw material cost support has gradually weakened. After the release of domestic production increments and the upcoming arrival of a large amount of imported alumina, inventory is under pressure. The market's core contradiction has shifted from high premiums due to overseas geopolitics to the weak reality of domestic inventory accumulation and slow - starting demand, as well as the logic of upward repair of the copper - aluminum ratio. If there are no unexpected geopolitical disturbances, aluminum prices are expected to adjust weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the approaching inflection point of inventory reduction and be vigilant against new geopolitical variables [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel declined. Nickel ore prices continued to strengthen, while primary nickel faced significant inventory pressure. On the demand side, stainless - steel inventory decreased week - on - week, and the supply of MHP was disrupted. Given the current strengthening cost side, there may be short - term long - trading opportunities based on the cost line, but attention should be paid to overseas geopolitics and market sentiment. There is also an expectation for supplementary quotas in July, which will also put pressure on nickel prices [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Import window open but profitability down; US - Iran conflict and negotiations cause uncertainty; LME inventory down 350 tons to 359,825 tons, Comex inventory up 939 tons to 534,985 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts down 5,670 tons to 246,441 tons; downstream restocking willingness increased after price decline; strategy shift from cautious - bearish to range - bound operations [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina (AO2605) down 0.75% to 2,917 yuan/ton, Shanghai aluminum (AL2605) up 0.51% to 23,870 yuan/ton, aluminum alloy (AD2604) up 0.5% to 22,940 yuan/ton; overseas cost support weakens, domestic inventory pressure increases; short - term weak adjustment expected [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel down 1.04% to $17,165/ton, Shanghai nickel down 0.73% to 135,990 yuan/ton; LME inventory down 216 tons to 282,240 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts down 12 tons to 57,593 tons; nickel ore prices up, primary nickel inventory pressure; short - term long - trading opportunities based on cost line, but attention to geopolitics and sentiment [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Flat - copper price down 260 yuan/ton to 95,315 yuan/ton; LME inventory down 350 tons, Comex inventory up 939 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts down 5,670 tons; social inventory (domestic + bonded area) down 27,000 tons to 584,000 tons; active contract import profit up 603.8 yuan/ton to 727.9 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: Average price of 1 lead down 50 yuan/ton to 16,400 yuan/ton; LME inventory unchanged at 283,100 tons, SHFE inventory down 9,939 tons to 66,110 tons; active contract import profit up 226 yuan/ton to 855 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum**: Wuxi aluminum price down 230 yuan/ton to 23,530 yuan/ton, Nanhai price down 270 yuan/ton to 23,440 yuan/ton; LME inventory down 3,675 tons to 423,075 tons, SHFE total inventory up 35,619 tons to 452,044 tons; social inventory of electrolytic aluminum down 2,000 tons to 1.337 million tons, alumina up 40,000 tons to 358,000 tons; active contract import loss up 392 yuan/ton to 3,911 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: Jinchuan nickel plate price up 1,050 yuan/ton to 142,050 yuan/ton; LME inventory down 216 tons to 282,240 tons, SHFE inventory down 20 tons to 63,661 tons; social inventory of nickel up 959 tons to 88,449 tons; active contract import profit up 4,051 yuan/ton to 1,471 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: Main settlement price up 0.1% to 22,985 yuan/ton; LME inventory unchanged at 115,650 tons, SHFE inventory up 793 tons to 6,268 tons; social inventory down 5,100 tons to 214,400 tons; active contract import loss up 220 yuan/ton to 2,873 yuan/ton [6]. - **Tin**: Main settlement price up 0.1% to 352,530 yuan/ton; LME inventory unchanged at 8,720 tons, SHFE inventory down 2,472 tons to 10,042 tons; active contract import loss down 10,077 yuan/ton to 16,699 yuan/ton [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [8][9][11][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [14][17][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [35][37][40]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [41][43][45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term view that hot - rolled coils are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger operation [6] Core View - Hot - rolled coils showed a volatile and slightly weaker trend on Wednesday. Influenced by the short - term weakness of raw materials, the lower support is near the 60 - day moving average. From the perspective of the moving average, it is strengthening in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the previous pressure platform. Fundamentally, it is currently in a pattern of increasing supply and demand, high inventory, and cost support. The apparent demand has rebounded significantly recently, and with the arrival of the seasonal peak season, the overall output has shrunk, which supports the price. However, the high inventory limits the upside space to a certain extent. Now it has started to destock, and attention should be paid to the subsequent destocking progress [6] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures price**: The trading volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract on Wednesday was 302,330 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The short - term moving average fell to around the 5 - day moving average of 3313, the medium - term moving average was at 30 - day moving average of 3257, and it was running above the 60 - day moving average of 3273. The position decreased by 21,168 lots [1] - **Spot price**: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3300 yuan/ton [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was - 13 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply side**: The actual weekly output was 300.21 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.95 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 24.12 million tons. The steel mill's resumption of production was moderate, and the supply contraction was obvious year - on - year, so the supply side put limited pressure on prices [4] - **Demand side**: The apparent consumption was 310.51 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.15 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20.14 million tons. The resumption of work in the manufacturing industry drove the rebound of apparent demand, but it was still weak year - on - year. The intensity of demand recovery was the core variable in the follow - up [4] - **Inventory side**: The social inventory was 376.33 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.98 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 52.28 million tons. The social inventory was de - stocked for the first time on a weekly basis, but the absolute amount was still much higher than last year. The steel mill inventory was 84.96 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.32 million tons, and the pressure was relieved. The total inventory was 461.29 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.3 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 51.39 million tons. It ended the inventory accumulation and entered the de - stocking stage, but the total inventory was still at a high level. Entering the weekly de - stocking for the first time verified the start of demand, but the absolute amount of social inventory and the inventory - to - sales ratio were still at a high level, suppressing the upward space of prices [4] - **Policy side**: On March 5, 2026, the National Two Sessions were held. The government work report proposed to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and arrange 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds to strengthen the support for infrastructure and "two new" projects, boosting the medium - and long - term confidence of the market. However, the current manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range, and there was no substantial improvement in downstream orders. It still took time for the policy to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, and it was difficult to reverse the high - inventory pattern in the short term [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Cost support, supply contraction, demand resilience, policy support ("15th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strengthening of raw materials [6] - **Bearish factors**: Slow realization of demand, price suppression due to inventory accumulation, and increased macro - disturbances [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: After a sharp fall, copper prices are expected to enter a bottom - seeking phase with support below but lack of upward drivers. The strategy is to shift from being cautiously bearish to range - bound operations and gradually build long positions at key support levels, focusing on the performance in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton. The main factors affecting copper prices are the US - Iran conflict and inventory changes. [1] - **Aluminum**: Overseas raw material cost support is weakening, and after the release of domestic production increase and the arrival of a large amount of imported alumina, the inventory is under pressure. If there is no unexpected geopolitical disturbance, the short - term aluminum price will be mainly in a weak adjustment. Attention should be paid to the approaching time of the de - stocking inflection point. [2] - **Nickel**: Due to the tight supply of nickel ore and rising freight, the price of nickel ore is rising. The operation can refer to short - term long opportunities based on the cost line, but short - term attention should be paid to overseas geopolitics and market sentiment. The expected supplementary quota in July and the large inventory pressure of primary nickel will also put pressure on nickel prices. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Copper - Overnight LME copper first declined and then rose, and SHFE copper opened higher and fluctuated strongly. The domestic refined copper import window remained open. - Market sentiment was affected by the US - Iran conflict. Trump's attitude change reversed the market decline. - LME inventory increased by 5,125 tons to 347,475 tons; Comex inventory decreased by 1,121 tons to 532,947 tons; SHFE copper warrants decreased by 13,737 tons to 274,115 tons; BC copper warrants decreased by 1,050 tons to 14,086 tons. - After the copper price decline, downstream replenishment demand increased, and social inventory decreased rapidly. [1] Aluminum - Overnight alumina fluctuated weakly, AO2605 closed at 3,021 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.76%. SHFE aluminum fluctuated strongly, AL2605 closed at 23,750 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.57%. - The spot price of alumina rebounded, and the aluminum ingot spot discount narrowed. The processing fees of some aluminum products changed. - Overseas raw material cost support weakened, and the inventory was under pressure. The market's core contradiction shifted, and the short - term aluminum price was expected to adjust weakly. [1][2] Nickel - Overnight LME nickel rose 1.87% to $17,200/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 0.71% to 134,990 yuan/ton. - LME inventory decreased by 720 tons to 282,792 tons, and SHFE warrants increased by 942 tons to 57,632 tons. - The price of nickel ore continued to rise due to tight supply and rising freight. The demand side showed some changes, and the operation could refer to short - term long opportunities based on cost. [3] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - copper, waste copper, and downstream products decreased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, and SHFE warrants decreased by 13,737 tons. The social inventory decreased by 27,000 tons. [4] - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. [4] - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, and SHFE warrants decreased by 198 tons. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly, and that of alumina increased by 40,000 tons. [5] - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased slightly. The inventory of LME decreased, and SHFE warrants increased by 942 tons. The social inventory of nickel increased by 959 tons. [5] - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased slightly. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, and SHFE increased by 793 tons. The social inventory decreased by 9,500 tons. [7] - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased by 1.5%. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, and SHFE decreased by 2,472 tons. [7] 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts to analyze the spot premium, SHFE near - far month spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profit of various non - ferrous metals from 2019 to 2026. [8][9][16][23][29][35][41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has significantly recovered, while the profit of ethylene - based production is relatively low, and the current valuation is neutral. There are expectations of passive production cuts in ethylene - based production and seasonal maintenance, and the overall load in March is expected to decline. Although the domestic demand is under pressure, overseas demand may increase due to raw material shortages, and the market is expected to turn to destocking in March. In the short term, before the Iranian issue is resolved, the market will mainly show a rebound, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is 2,550 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 450 yuan; the price of Shandong calcium carbide is 2,910 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 205 yuan; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi is 735 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has significantly recovered, while the profit of ethylene - based production is relatively low, and the current valuation is neutral [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 81.4%, a 0.2% increase month - on - month. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 82.9%, a 2.3% increase month - on - month; the ethylene method is 77.6%, a 4.6% decrease month - on - month. In March, some enterprises may start spring maintenance, and with the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the ethylene - based production load is expected to further decline, and the overall load is expected to decline [11]. - **Demand**: The export tax - rebate policy is planned to be cancelled on April 1st, and the short - term effect of rush - exporting has declined. However, due to the lack of raw materials in Asia, the load reduction in Northeast Asia may bring export growth opportunities. The start - up rates of the three major downstream industries are gradually recovering from the Spring Festival holiday. The load of pipes is 38%, a 5% increase month - on - month; the load of films is 60%, a 13% increase month - on - month; the load of profiles is 30%, a 2.6% increase month - on - month; the overall downstream load is 39.3%, a 3.5% increase month - on - month. The pre - sales volume of PVC last week was 1.09 million tons, a 200,000 - ton increase week - on - week [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 377,000 tons, a 81,000 - ton reduction week - on - week; the social inventory was 1.407 million tons, a 3,000 - ton increase week - on - week; the overall inventory was 1.784 million tons, a 78,000 - ton reduction week - on - week; the number of warehouse receipts decreased seasonally. It is expected that the overall load in March will decline, and overseas exports are expected to be supported by the shortage of ethylene raw materials in Northeast Asia, and the market is expected to turn to destocking in March [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The report provides multiple charts, including the PVC term structure, the price of PVC East China SG - 5, the PVC spot basis, the 5 - 9 spread of PVC, the active contract positions and trading volume of PVC, and the total positions and trading volume of PVC, to show the market conditions of PVC futures and spot [15][18][21][25][27]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: The in - factory inventory is accelerating destocking, and the social inventory is stable. The report presents multiple charts to show the in - factory inventory of calcium carbide - based PVC, the social inventory of PVC, the total inventory of in - factory and social, and the number of PVC warehouse receipts [32][33][40]. - **Profit**: The report provides charts of the comprehensive profit of Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integration, the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC, the profit of ethylene - based PVC, and the profit of Inner Mongolia's calcium carbide [42]. 3.4 Cost Side - **Calcium Carbide**: The price of calcium carbide has rebounded. The report shows the price, inventory, and start - up rate of calcium carbide through charts [48][51][53]. - **Other Raw Materials**: The price of semi - coke has declined, while the prices of ethylene and caustic soda have rebounded. The report presents the market prices of semi - coke, 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, liquid chlorine in Shandong, and the CFR spot price of Northeast Asian ethylene through charts [54][55]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Capacity and Production**: The report shows the historical trend of PVC production capacity, the production capacity put into operation in 2025, and the raw materials consumed by the production capacity put into operation in 2025 through charts and tables [59][61][63]. - **Start - up Rate**: The PVC start - up rate remains at a high level, the ethylene - based production load has begun to decline, and the calcium carbide - based production load has increased. The report presents the start - up rates of calcium carbide - based PVC, ethylene - based PVC, and overall PVC, as well as the weekly production volume of PVC through charts [66][70][71]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Downstream Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of the three major downstream industries are gradually recovering. The report shows the start - up rates of PVC films, profiles, pipes, and the overall downstream through charts [75][77][80][81]. - **Export and Pre - sales**: The report shows the export volume of PVC, the export volume to India, and the pre - sales volume of PVC through charts [82][84][86]. - **Related Indicators**: The report also shows the rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's housing completion area through a chart [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For methanol, in the short - term, due to the ongoing geopolitical conflict, international supply reduction expectations are prolonged, import volume may decline in March and April, and with downstream demand remaining stable, it may continue to oscillate at a high level. In the long - term, after geopolitical disturbances subside, it may correct, but if inventory reduction exceeds expectations, it has the basis for a stable rise [26]. - For plastics, in the short - term, rising oil prices and geopolitical conflicts affect supply, while demand is in a full - recovery stage, so it may oscillate at a high level with high uncertainty. In the long - term, demand and inventory situations are favorable, but terminal demand is weak and high production may limit the upside [27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Price - The price of MA2605 futures rose from 2586 yuan/ton on March 6th to 2805 yuan/ton on March 13th, a rise of 8.47%. The MA basis rose from - 56 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton, a rise of 135.71%. The price of methanol (Taicang) increased from 2530 yuan/ton to 2825 yuan/ton, a rise of 11.66%. The methanol CFR increased from 297.2 dollars/ton to 324.67 dollars/ton, a rise of 9.24% [2]. Supply - As of March 12th, the domestic methanol operating rate was 90.15%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points compared to the previous period. The production was 2.0138 million tons, a decrease of 3610 tons or 0.18% compared to the previous period. This week, the extended Zhongmei plant was under maintenance with a loss of 1.8 million tons/year of production capacity, and the Guangju New Material plant resumed production with a capacity of 600,000 tons/year. Next week, some plants are expected to resume production with a total capacity of 1.05 million tons/year, which may increase the operating rate [9]. Demand - As of March 12th, the olefin operating rate remained stable at 84.08%. The gross profit was - 810.33 yuan/ton, a 18.49% increase compared to the previous period. If the gross profit continues to rise, it may promote the resumption of olefin production [12]. Inventory - As of March 11th, the port inventory was 1.3128 million tons, a decrease of 130,600 tons or 9.05% compared to the previous period. The inland inventory was 523,200 tons, a decrease of 28,300 tons or 5.13% compared to the previous period. The port inventory decreased significantly, and the inventory pressure was relieved [14]. Plastics Price - The price of L2605 futures rose from 7691 yuan/ton on March 6th to 8416 yuan/ton on March 13th, a rise of 9.43%. The L basis rose from - 261 yuan/ton to - 166 yuan/ton, a rise of 36.40%. The LLDPE price increased from 7430 yuan/ton to 8250 yuan/ton, a rise of 11.04%. The HDPE price increased from 7950 yuan/ton to 8450 yuan/ton, a rise of 6.29%. The LDPE price increased from 10400 yuan/ton to 10550 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.44% [2]. Supply - As of March 12th, the domestic plastic operating rate was 82.39%, a decrease of 4.52 percentage points compared to the previous period. The production was 683,200 tons, a decrease of 37,500 tons or 5.2% compared to the previous period. This week, some plants were under maintenance with a loss of about 1.11 million tons/year of production capacity, and some plants resumed production with a total capacity of about 450,000 tons/year. The operating rate is expected to continue to decline next week [17]. Demand - As of March 12th, the downstream operating rate was 33.83%, an increase of 5.21 percentage points compared to the previous period. The recovery of packaging film and agricultural film is relatively fast, and the demand side provides stable support [21]. Inventory - As of March 11th, the social inventory was 662,900 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons or 1.56% compared to the previous period. The inventory of two major oil companies was 505,000 tons, an increase of 53,000 tons or 11.73% compared to the previous period. The inventory structure continues to diverge [24].

Core Insights - The agricultural futures market is showing strong performance during the Spring Festival holiday, with commodities like soybean oil, wheat, and sugar rising by approximately 3% [2][14] - Post-holiday, the market is expected to focus on three core variables: supply, demand, and inventory, which will drive the price trends of various agricultural products [17][16] Cotton and Sugar - The cotton market is influenced by policy changes and emotional trading patterns, with prices fluctuating between 14,500 and 15,000 yuan/ton. Key factors include the planting area for new cotton and adjustments in target price policies [18][19] - The sugar market faces complexities, including domestic prices falling below production costs, uncertainties in new sugarcane planting areas, and the impact of imported sugar on domestic prices [19][20] Corn and Soybeans - For corn and soybeans, supply is the main focus, with inventory playing a secondary role. Recent price increases are attributed to reduced production forecasts for high-quality corn and soybeans in 2025 [19][22] - The market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend due to low inventory levels and upcoming demand from the school season [22][23] Apples and Dates - The apple market is experiencing high prices despite weak demand and ample supply, while the red date market is expected to be influenced by inventory reduction [20] - Both markets are characterized by a focus on quality and demand rather than production costs [20] Pork and Eggs - The pork and egg markets are currently facing high production capacity and slow inventory reduction, with prices at historical lows. The market outlook remains cautious [20][24] - The dynamics of the pork market are shifting towards a tighter supply situation post-holiday, contrary to typical seasonal expectations [24][25] Meal and Oil - The soybean meal market's supply is contingent on the import volume of soybeans and processing rates, with potential price rebounds if supply tightens [21] - The oil market is characterized by overall ample supply, with interdependencies between domestic and international markets affecting prices [21][29] Overall Market Trends - The agricultural futures index has shown a rising trend, reflecting the overall positive sentiment in the market [27] - The cotton and sugar markets are expected to be influenced by seasonal demand and policy changes, while corn and soybean markets are likely to benefit from reduced supply and increased demand [28][29]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating for the Industry - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is "shockingly strong" [1]. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The overall supply of soda ash is abundant, and the core contradiction is the continuous inventory accumulation caused by strong supply and weak demand, with the industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern unchanged. In the short term, the price may fluctuate strongly, but as the Spring Festival approaches and downstream demand weakens, the price may adjust weakly. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The main soda ash contract opened and closed higher, showing a short - term shock - strong signal. The trading volume increased by 447,000 lots, and the open interest increased by 12,546 lots compared to the previous day. The closing price was 1,229 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton or 2.08% [1]. - **Spot Market**: It was oscillating at a low level. The enterprise equipment had a narrow - range fluctuation, with Xuzhou Fengcheng under maintenance and production slightly decreasing. Downstream demand was tepid, with a "use - as - you - buy" approach [1]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1,250 yuan/ton, with a basis of 21 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, domestic soda ash production was 783,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,400 tons or 1.47%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.19%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%. Overall supply was abundant [2]. - **Inventory**: As of February 2, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5604 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,200 tons or 1.05%. Inventory was at a historical high with an obvious inventory - accumulation trend [2]. - **Demand**: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 760,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.94%. The overall shipment rate was 97.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 9.92%. Downstream procurement enthusiasm was poor, and pre - holiday stocking was insufficient [2]. - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information, the theoretical profit of the combined - alkali method (double - ton) was - 26.5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.5 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - alkali method was - 88.35 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.95 yuan/ton. The cost decreased slightly [3]. Main Logic Summary - Soda ash capacity utilization is at a high level, and with new capacity gradually coming on stream, overall production is increasing. The core contradiction is the supply - demand mismatch. In the short term, the price may fluctuate strongly, but may adjust weakly as the Spring Festival approaches [4].

Production Side - In January, the operating rate of 247 blast furnaces was 78.96%, showing a slight increase but still weak[3] - The operating rates for electric furnaces and rebar were 62.44% and 38.77%, respectively, both higher than the previous month's average[3] - Cement mill operating rate fell to 27.92%, a decrease from last month[3] - Chemical product operating rates generally improved, with soda ash, PVC, and PTA at 84.36%, 79.12%, and 76.10%, respectively, all significantly higher than last month[3] Demand Side - In January, the average transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities decreased by 27.64% year-on-year, while land transaction area in 100 cities fell by 32.92%[4] - The average daily sales of passenger cars significantly cooled down, while movie box office revenue dropped by 11.21% year-on-year and 25.26% month-on-month[4] - The average subway passenger volume in ten major cities was 62.89 million, up 5.19% year-on-year and 0.82% month-on-month[4] Price Side - The wholesale price index for agricultural products rose by 5.55% year-on-year, while the chemical product price index increased by 3.70% month-on-month but decreased by 7.37% year-on-year[5] - Copper and aluminum prices rose by 8.45% and 6.39% month-on-month, with year-on-year increases of 32.26% and 15.58%, respectively[6] - Rebar prices remained low, with a month-on-month increase of 0.17% but a year-on-year decrease of 6.88%[6] Risk Factors - Risks include domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations and overseas policies exceeding expectations[7]

Report Investment Ratings | Product | Rating | | --- | --- | | Urea | ★★☆ | | Methanol | ★★★ | | Pure Benzene | ★★★ | | Propylene | ★☆☆ | | Plastic | ★★☆ | | PVC | ★☆☆ | | Caustic Soda | ★★★ | | PX | ★★★ | | PTA | ★★★ | | Ethylene Glycol | ★★★ | | Short Fiber | ☆☆☆ | | Glass | ★★★ | | Soda Ash | ☆☆☆ | | Bottle Chip | ★★★ | | Propylene | ★★★ | [1] Core Views - The olefin - polyolefin market is weak due to factors such as falling oil prices, reduced downstream demand, and supply pressure [2] - The polyester market faces challenges like price drops, inventory accumulation, and weak demand, but there are potential opportunities in the second quarter [3] - The pure benzene - styrene market has a weakening fundamental outlook with cost support weakening and supply increasing [5] - The coal - chemical market has a weak methanol market and a range - bound urea market [6] - The chlor - alkali market shows a PVC with a potentially strong trend and a weak caustic soda market [7] - The soda ash - glass market has a soda ash facing supply - demand surplus and a glass with potential seasonal inventory build - up but low valuation [8] Summary by Directory Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures: Falling oil prices lead to a pessimistic market sentiment, and reduced downstream demand weakens the support for propylene [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures: There is supply pressure in the polyethylene market, and weak downstream demand and high - price transaction difficulties exist in the polypropylene market [2] Polyester - PX and PTA: Prices fall due to oil prices. There are different outlooks in different periods, with current weak reality and potential opportunities in the second quarter [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory increases, but there is a possibility of supply - demand improvement in the second quarter, while long - term pressure remains [3] - Short Fiber: Good short - term supply - demand pattern but weak downstream orders lead to a price decline following raw materials [3] - Bottle Chip:开工率下降，加工差有所修复，但长期产能压力仍在，短期随原料回落，中期关注库存表现 [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene: Spot price in East China rises, and there are expectations of increased utilization of downstream comprehensive production capacity, but the fundamental outlook is weakening [5] - Styrene: Futures price falls due to cost pressure, and the supply - demand fundamentals are weakening [5] Coal - Chemical - Methanol: Futures price drops, with weak coastal demand and difficult port de - stocking, and short - term行情受地缘风险影响较大 [6] - Urea: Spot price is stable with a slight decline, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC: Night - session trading shows a strong trend, with cost support and good export demand [7] - Caustic Soda: Weak operation due to weak cost support and high inventory pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda Ash: Shows an oscillating trend, with high supply and inventory pressure, and a long - term supply - demand surplus [8] - Glass: Shows a slightly strong oscillating trend, with potential seasonal inventory build - up but low valuation [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX & PTA: Geopolitical risks disrupt oil price fluctuations on the cost side. Currently, polyester costs are high, and profit distribution has shifted from being concentrated on the PX side to a situation where both PXN and TA processing margins have rebounded to a moderately high level in the past five years. With acceptable processing profits for PX and TA, there are few changes in PX and TA devices. TA overseas devices have maintenance plans in February. China's PX maintains a monthly average of 90%, and domestic TA maintains a monthly average of 77%. On the demand side, with the Spring Festival holiday in February, the weak reality of downstream industries is gradually materializing. Polyester factories, including terminal texturing, weaving, and dyeing factories, will gradually resume work from early to mid - March. According to CCF's assessment, the average operating load of polyester in February can drop to 80 - 82%. Then, in mid - to late March, as the devices restart, the polyester operating load will rebound. Overall, polyester raw materials will enter the inventory accumulation channel in February, and the seasonal inventory accumulation pressure for PX and PTA in February is obvious. In the second quarter, polyester raw materials will undergo spring maintenance, and the polyester restart load will rebound. The far - month fundamentals are expected to be good. It is expected that the market in February will be low at first and then high. Attention should be paid to the risk of less - than - expected demand recovery in the second half of the month and significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [144]. - MEG: On the supply side, some overseas devices, including those in Saudi Arabia and Singapore, have restart plans around March. There are few changes in domestic devices in February. Currently, the domestic operating rate of ethylene glycol is at a high level, and port inventories continue to accumulate. On the demand side, with the Spring Festival holiday in February, the weak reality of downstream industries is gradually materializing. Polyester factories, including terminal texturing, weaving, and dyeing factories, will gradually resume work from early to mid - March. According to CCF's assessment, the average operating load of polyester in February can drop to 80 - 82%. Then, in mid - to late March, as the devices restart, the polyester operating load will rebound. Overall, the supply of ethylene glycol increases while the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulation expectation in February is strong. The valuation has been repaired, and it is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to unexpected device changes, cost - side price fluctuations, and the risk of less - than - expected demand recovery in the second half of February [144]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 PX&PTA&MEG Price: Geopolitical Disturbance of Crude Oil Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of January 30, 2026, the closing prices of PTA, MEG, and PX were 5270 yuan/ton, 3913 yuan/ton, and 7400 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10 yuan/ton, + 67 yuan/ton, and - 156 yuan/ton compared to December 26, 2025, and the corresponding percentage changes were - 0.2%, 1.7%, and - 2.1% [6]. - **PTA Basis and Spread**: The PTA basis and spread data show certain seasonal characteristics. For example, the basis of TA01, TA05, and TA09 contracts has different trends in different months. The PTA nine - one spread and five - nine spread also show different values in different periods [8][9][10]. - **MEG Basis and Spread**: Similar to PTA, the MEG basis and spread also have seasonal characteristics, and the basis and spread of different contracts (EG01, EG05, EG09) change over time [12]. - **PX Basis**: As of January 30, 2026, the PX basis was 30 yuan/ton, with a change of 162 yuan/ton compared to December 26, 2025, and a percentage change of 122.8% [14]. - **TA - EG Spread**: As of January 30, 2026, the TA - EG spread was 1357 yuan/ton, with a change of - 77 yuan/ton compared to December 26, 2025, and a percentage change of - 5.4% [16]. - **TA - PX Processing Margin**: As of January 30, 2026, the TA - PX * 0.656 spread was 416 yuan/ton, with a change of 92 yuan/ton compared to December 26, 2025, and a percentage change of 28.6% [20]. - **Domestic and Overseas Ethylene Glycol Spread**: As of January 29, 2026, the ethylene glycol spread between Europe and China was 199 US dollars/ton, with a change of - 17 US dollars/ton compared to December 26, 2025, and a percentage change of - 7.8% [23]. 3.2 PX&PTA&MEG Supply Situation: Little Change in Devices - **PX**: As of January 30, the Asian PX operating load was 81.5%, with a month - on - month increase of 2 percentage points; the Chinese PX operating load was 89.2%, with a month - on - month increase of 1 percentage point. The 800,000 - ton PX device of Sinochem Quanzhou was restarting at the end of January and was expected to produce products soon [33]. - **PTA**: As of January 30, the PTA operating load was 76.6%, with a month - on - month increase of 4.1 percentage points. Some devices had maintenance plans, such as the 1.25 - million - ton/year device of Ineos, which stopped on January 16 and was expected to restart in March; the 700,000 - ton/year (6) device of CAPCO in Taiwan was planned to be overhauled from February 5 and was expected to last until mid - March; the 225,000 - ton/year (QTA) device of Hanwha in South Korea was shut down for maintenance from January to March [36]. - **MEG**: As of January 30, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 74.27% (a month - on - month increase of 0.95%), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) was 81.02% (a month - on - month increase of 3.74%). Some devices had maintenance or production - transfer plans, such as the 700,000 - ton/year device of Gulei Petrochemical, which would start maintenance in early March and was expected to last for 50 - 60 days; one line of Satellite Petrochemical was planned to stop production and transfer to PE production in mid - to late February, and the recovery time was to be determined [52]. 3.3 PX&PTA&MEG Import and Export Situation: Cancellation of India's BIS Certification - **PX Import**: In December 2025, the total import volume of PX in the Chinese mainland was about 933,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.3% and a year - on - year increase of 11.2% [56]. - **PTA Export**: In December 2025, the PTA export volume was 361,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.3%. The cumulative export volume from January to December 2025 was 3.82 million tons, a decrease of 600,000 tons compared to the same period last year, with a year - on - year decline of 13.6% [59]. - **MEG Import**: In December 2025, the ethylene glycol import volume was 835,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43.2% and a year - on - year increase of 44.2%. The cumulative import volume from January to December 2025 was 7.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.8% [63]. - **Polyester Export**: In December 2025, the total export volume of polyester products was 1.3074 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 32,600 tons [67]. 3.4 PX&PTA&MEG Inventory Situation: Low Profits and Low Inventories of Downstream Finished Products - **PTA Inventory**: The PTA total inventory is at the bottom. The inventory data of PTA in different aspects, such as total inventory, polyester factory inventory, in - warehouse and in - port inventory, and total warehouse receipts, show certain trends over time [76][77]. - **MEG Inventory**: As of January 26, the ethylene glycol port inventory in some main ports in East China was about 858,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 128,000 tons [79]. 3.5 Polyester Demand Situation: Terminal Demand Faces Tests - **Domestic Polyester Device Changes**: In January 2026, many polyester devices had maintenance or restart plans, involving different types of products such as short - fiber, long - fiber, and bottle - chip [83]. - **Domestic Polyester - Related Data**: As of January 30, 2026, the polyester operating load was 84.2%, with a month - on - month decrease of 6.2 percentage points. The operating rates of texturing machines, looms, and dyeing factories also decreased to varying degrees. The inventory days and cash - flow data of different polyester products also changed [86]. - **Polyester Demand and Terminal Demand**: Polyester demand shows certain resilience, but terminal demand is declining. The operating rates of polyester, texturing machines, and looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, as well as the sales volume of polyester yarns, show different trends. The inventory of long - fiber and short - fiber products is at a low level, but the terminal digestion ability of the weaving industry is weak, and the export of textiles and clothing in China is also weak [87][101]. 3.6 PX&PTA&MEG Position Situation - **PTA Futures Position**: As of January 30, 2026, the total PTA futures position was 2,186,334 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 335,082 lots and a year - on - year increase of 897,595 lots [114]. - **MEG Futures Position**: As of January 30, 2026, the total MEG futures position was 453,170 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 102,376 lots and a year - on - year increase of 184,266 lots [114]. - **PX Futures Position**: As of January 30, 2026, the total PX futures position was 460,833 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 17,922 lots and a year - on - year increase of 331,416 lots [114].