1. Report Industry Investment Ratings 1.1 Macro Finance - Index Futures: Bullish on dips [1][6] - Treasury Bonds: Sideways [1][6] 1.2 Black Building Materials - Rebar: Hold off for now [1][8] - Iron Ore: Sideways [1][8] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [1][10] 1.3 Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Range trading or hold off [1][13] - Aluminum: Buy on dips after pullbacks [1][15] - Nickel: Hold off or short on rallies [1][17] - Tin: Range trading [1][17] - Gold: Range trading [1][18] - Silver: Range trading [1][18] 1.4 Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Sideways [1][20] - Soda Ash: Short 09 and long 05 arbitrage [1] - Caustic Soda: Sideways [1][22] - Styrene: Sideways [1][24] - Rubber: Sideways with a bullish bias [1][27] - Urea: Sideways [1][31] - Methanol: Sideways [1][32] - Polyolefins: Wide - range sideways [1][33] 1.5 Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Sideways with a bullish bias [1][37] - Apples: Sideways with a bullish bias [1][38] - Jujubes: Sideways with a bullish bias [1][38] 1.6 Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Hogs: Bearish on rallies [1][40] - Eggs: Bearish on rallies [1][42] - Corn: Wide - range sideways [1][43] - Soybean Meal: Range - bound [1][46] - Oils and Fats: Sideways with a bullish bias [1][47] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall futures market shows a diversified trend, with different investment strategies recommended for various sectors based on their supply - demand fundamentals, macro - economic factors, and policy impacts. For example, in the macro - finance sector, the index futures are expected to rise in the medium - term due to policy support and capital inflows, while the treasury bonds are constrained by the strong performance of the equity market. In the non - ferrous metals sector, copper is likely to maintain a high - level sideways trend due to a combination of factors such as economic data and inventory levels [6][13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The US inflation data has affected the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The index has strengthened due to policy support, capital inflows, and event catalysts. After reaching a short - term high, it may consolidate, but the medium - term upward trend remains. Investors with positions can hold or lock in profits on pullbacks, while those without positions can consider buying on dips [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is currently constrained by the strong performance of risk assets. Although the equity market has ended its eight - day winning streak, the adjustment is limited, and the current equity - dominant pattern may continue to suppress the bond market in the short term. Attention should be paid to the upcoming economic data to see if it can support the bond market [6]. 3.2 Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price has continued to decline. The cost is at a neutral level, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market should pay attention to the implementation of crude - steel production limits and the resumption of coking - coal production. It is expected to remain sideways in the short term, and investors can hold off or engage in short - term trading [8][9]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore futures price has been weak. The supply and demand are in a state of weak balance. Considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, the iron - ore price is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias. It can be considered as a long leg when shorting other black - building materials [8][9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking - coal market has limited supply growth and stable demand, with no prominent supply - demand contradictions. The coke market is in a tight supply - demand pattern, but the weak steel sales and high iron - water production are in a game. Attention should be paid to factors such as production - limit policies, iron - water production changes, and raw - material price fluctuations [11]. 3.3 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Chinese economic data is positive, and the Fed's possible interest - rate cut has supported the copper price. However, the domestic copper industry is in the off - season, and the downstream demand is weak. The inventory is expected to accumulate, but the decline in the copper price is limited. It is expected to remain sideways in the short term, with the Shanghai copper running in the range of 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton [13]. - **Aluminum**: The production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing, while the downstream demand is affected by the off - season. The inventory has increased. Although there are still some positive factors such as interest - rate cut expectations, the short - term is expected to be sideways. Investors can consider buying on dips in August [15]. - **Nickel**: In the medium - to - long term, the nickel industry has an oversupply situation. The price of nickel ore is falling slowly, and the stainless - steel price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to short on rallies moderately [17]. - **Tin**: The domestic refined - tin production has increased, and the supply of tin ore is gradually improving. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and the inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the Shanghai tin 09 contract running in the range of 255,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Gold and Silver**: The new US tariffs and weak employment data have increased the market's interest - rate cut expectations, and the precious - metal prices have rebounded. However, the Fed's hawkish remarks have also put pressure on the prices. It is expected that the prices of gold and silver will have support at the bottom and are recommended for range trading [18][19]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low - profit level, the supply is high, and the demand is affected by the real - estate market and export factors. The inventory is slightly lower than last year, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to be sideways in the short term, with the 09 contract focusing on the range of 4,900 - 5,100 yuan/ton [20][21]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is abundant, the demand has rigid support but the growth rate is slowing down. The 09 contract is expected to be sideways in the range of 2,400 - 2,550 yuan/ton, and investors can consider buying on dips for the peak - season contracts [22][23]. - **Styrene**: The cost is affected by factors such as oil prices and pure - benzene production. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The macro - environment is improving slightly. It is expected to be sideways, with the price focusing on the range of 7,100 - 7,400 yuan/ton [24][26]. - **Rubber**: After a continuous rise, the rubber price has slightly corrected, but the cost support remains strong, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias, focusing on the range of 15,200 - 15,600 yuan/ton [27][28]. - **Urea**: The supply has decreased slightly, the agricultural demand is sporadic, and the compound - fertilizer demand is increasing. The price is expected to be range - bound, with support at 1,700 - 1,730 yuan/ton and resistance at 1,800 - 1,830 yuan/ton [31]. - **Methanol**: The supply has decreased slightly, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. The inventory in the port area has increased rapidly. The methanol price is expected to be sideways with a bearish bias [32][33]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply has tightened slightly, the downstream demand has a replenishment need, but the recovery rate of the operating rate is slower than the same period. The polyolefin price is expected to be sideways in the short term, with the L2509 contract focusing on the range of 7,200 - 7,500 yuan/ton and the PP2509 contract focusing on the range of 6,900 - 7,200 yuan/ton [33][34]. - **Soda Ash**: The impact of the relevant policies on production is limited. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is expected to accumulate. The 09 contract is expected to face pressure, and it is recommended to short the 09 contract [36]. 3.5 Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has improved. With the approaching of the peak season and the tight spot market, the cotton price is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias [37]. - **Apples**: The early - maturing apples in the western region have limited trading, and the inventory apples in the Shandong region have slow sales. The price of early - maturing apples is weak, and the inventory apples are stable. With the upcoming supply increase of early - maturing paper - bag Gala apples, attention should be paid to the quality and price trends. The apple price is expected to remain high and sideways [38]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube - fruit is in the swelling period, and the price in the sales area has increased. The jujube price is expected to rise sideways in the near future [38]. 3.6 Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: In the short term, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The pig price is expected to continue to bottom out. In the medium term, the price may rebound due to improved consumption, but the rebound height is limited. In the long term, the supply will continue to increase, and the price will be under pressure. The 09 contract can be observed, and investors can consider shorting the 11 and 01 contracts on rallies and pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [40][41]. - **Eggs**: The current egg price is at a low level, and the demand may increase during the Mid - Autumn Festival and school - opening periods. However, the supply is sufficient, and the high - supply situation in the long term is difficult to reverse. It is recommended to short on rallies for the main 10 contract, and consider going long on dips for the 12 and 01 contracts if the culling process accelerates [42]. - **Corn**: The spot price fluctuates slightly, and the 09 contract is expected to be range - bound between 2,250 - 2,300 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policies and substitute products [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean supply has tightened, and the price has a rising trend, but the increase is limited. The domestic soybean and soybean - meal inventories are accumulating, and the spot - price increase is restricted. In the medium - to - long term, the price may be strong. Investors can hold long positions in the M2511 and M2601 contracts and reduce positions on rallies [46][48]. - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term prices of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils are expected to be sideways with a bullish bias. The 01 contracts of these oils have support and resistance levels, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Attention should be paid to the rapeseed - oil 11 - 01 reverse arbitrage [47][55].

01 螺纹：短线交易 02 03 铁矿：震荡偏强 双焦：中性观望 目 录 黑色：维持震荡格局 区间交易为主 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-8-11 【产业服务总部 | 黑色产业中心】 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 螺纹钢：短线交易 01 01 投资策略：维持震荡格局 区间交易为主 p 主要观点 上周煤矿相关消息较多，部分矿山重启276工作日制度，双焦期货价格大幅上涨，不过原料未能带动钢价上行，螺 纹钢期、现货价格均窄幅震荡。基本面方面，根据钢联统计口径，最近一期螺纹钢表需环比增加7.38万吨，产量增加 10.12万吨，库存增加10.39万吨，需求淡季矛盾积累尚不明显，供需保持相对均衡，不过上周累库速度略有加快。 后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格低于电炉平电成本、高于电炉谷电成本，静态估值中性；驱动方面，宏观端， 过度乐观预期有所降温，关注中美关税政策变化（8月12日是中美双方达成暂停关税协议的最后期限），产业端，现实 供需均衡，关注粗钢限产执行情况、焦煤复产进度，预计短期保持震荡格局。 p 交易策略 短线交易，RB2510关 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures and government bonds are expected to fluctuate [1][6]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation, iron ore and coking coal are expected to fluctuate [1][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is suitable for range trading or observation, aluminum is recommended to buy on dips, nickel is suggested to observe or short on rallies, tin, gold, and silver are suitable for range trading [1][11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range fluctuations; soda ash is recommended for a short - 09 and long - 05 arbitrage [1][21]. - **Cotton Spinning Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to have a fluctuating adjustment, apples and jujubes are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][36]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs are recommended to short on rallies, corn is expected to have range fluctuations, soybean meal is expected to have limited increases, and oils are at a high - level with an increasing risk of correction [1][40]. Core Viewpoints - The market is affected by various factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international events, resulting in different trends for different varieties. For example, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, China's economic data, and trade policies all have an impact on the market [6][11]. - Most varieties are in a state of fluctuating operation, and investors should choose appropriate investment strategies according to the characteristics of each variety, such as range trading, short - long arbitrage, and buying on dips [1]. Summaries by Catalog Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and China's economic data, the stock market turnover and index continue to recover, and the index futures are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Government Bonds**: In the short term, the market lacks a clear trend, and the yield is at a neutral level, so it is expected to fluctuate [6]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The supply - demand is relatively balanced in the off - season, and the short - term is expected to remain volatile. Investors can observe or conduct short - term trading [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Although the supply is increasing, considering the possible macro - benefits in the fourth quarter, the iron ore is expected to fluctuate strongly and can be used as a long - leg in the short - other - black - varieties strategy [8][9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal supply is tight, and the coke market has mixed factors. Both are expected to fluctuate in the short term [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Supported by factors such as China's economic improvement and low inventory, but facing the pressure of inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [11]. - **Aluminum**: The bauxite supply is decreasing, but the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price falls [12][14]. - **Nickel**: With an oversupply pattern in the medium - long term, it is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to short on rallies [17]. - **Tin**: The supply gap is improving, and the demand is in the off - season. It is suitable for range trading in the range of 25.5 - 27.5 million yuan/ton [19]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the Fed's policies and trade policies, they are expected to fluctuate and are suitable for range trading [19][20]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply and uncertain export sustainability, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4900 - 5100 [21][23]. - **Caustic Soda**: With high supply and stable demand, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2550 [23][24]. - **Styrene**: With limited fundamental benefits and a warm macro - environment, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7100 - 7400 [25][26]. - **Rubber**: With limited cost and supply support and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15200 - 15600 [27][28]. - **Urea**: With supply and demand in a balanced state, it is suitable for range operation in the range of 1700 - 1830 [30]. - **Methanol**: With supply and demand stabilizing, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [31][32]. - **Polyolefins**: With high supply pressure and low - season demand, they are expected to fluctuate in the range of L2509: 7200 - 7500 and PP2509: 6900 - 7200 [32][33]. - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended for a short - 09 and long - 05 arbitrage due to the weak spot market and expected inventory accumulation [33][35]. Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Affected by global supply - demand and domestic production expectations, they are expected to have a fluctuating adjustment [36][37]. - **Apples and Jujubes**: With slow sales and normal new - fruit growth, they are expected to fluctuate weakly [37][39]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: In the short term, the supply exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. Different contracts have different trends, and investors can consider arbitrage strategies [40][42]. - **Eggs**: With high supply and uncertain demand, it is recommended to short on rallies [42][44]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short term, the supply is abundant, and the price increase is limited. In the long term, there are supply gaps, and different contracts have different investment strategies [46][47]. - **Oils**: With expected negative reports and high inventory, there is an increasing risk of correction, but there are also some supporting factors. Different varieties have different trends, and investors can consider arbitrage strategies [48][55].