1. Report Industry Investment Ratings 1.1 Macro Finance - Index Futures: Bullish on dips [1][6] - Treasury Bonds: Sideways [1][6] 1.2 Black Building Materials - Rebar: Hold off for now [1][8] - Iron Ore: Sideways [1][8] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [1][10] 1.3 Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Range trading or hold off [1][13] - Aluminum: Buy on dips after pullbacks [1][15] - Nickel: Hold off or short on rallies [1][17] - Tin: Range trading [1][17] - Gold: Range trading [1][18] - Silver: Range trading [1][18] 1.4 Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Sideways [1][20] - Soda Ash: Short 09 and long 05 arbitrage [1] - Caustic Soda: Sideways [1][22] - Styrene: Sideways [1][24] - Rubber: Sideways with a bullish bias [1][27] - Urea: Sideways [1][31] - Methanol: Sideways [1][32] - Polyolefins: Wide - range sideways [1][33] 1.5 Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Sideways with a bullish bias [1][37] - Apples: Sideways with a bullish bias [1][38] - Jujubes: Sideways with a bullish bias [1][38] 1.6 Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Hogs: Bearish on rallies [1][40] - Eggs: Bearish on rallies [1][42] - Corn: Wide - range sideways [1][43] - Soybean Meal: Range - bound [1][46] - Oils and Fats: Sideways with a bullish bias [1][47] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall futures market shows a diversified trend, with different investment strategies recommended for various sectors based on their supply - demand fundamentals, macro - economic factors, and policy impacts. For example, in the macro - finance sector, the index futures are expected to rise in the medium - term due to policy support and capital inflows, while the treasury bonds are constrained by the strong performance of the equity market. In the non - ferrous metals sector, copper is likely to maintain a high - level sideways trend due to a combination of factors such as economic data and inventory levels [6][13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The US inflation data has affected the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The index has strengthened due to policy support, capital inflows, and event catalysts. After reaching a short - term high, it may consolidate, but the medium - term upward trend remains. Investors with positions can hold or lock in profits on pullbacks, while those without positions can consider buying on dips [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is currently constrained by the strong performance of risk assets. Although the equity market has ended its eight - day winning streak, the adjustment is limited, and the current equity - dominant pattern may continue to suppress the bond market in the short term. Attention should be paid to the upcoming economic data to see if it can support the bond market [6]. 3.2 Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price has continued to decline. The cost is at a neutral level, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market should pay attention to the implementation of crude - steel production limits and the resumption of coking - coal production. It is expected to remain sideways in the short term, and investors can hold off or engage in short - term trading [8][9]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore futures price has been weak. The supply and demand are in a state of weak balance. Considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, the iron - ore price is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias. It can be considered as a long leg when shorting other black - building materials [8][9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking - coal market has limited supply growth and stable demand, with no prominent supply - demand contradictions. The coke market is in a tight supply - demand pattern, but the weak steel sales and high iron - water production are in a game. Attention should be paid to factors such as production - limit policies, iron - water production changes, and raw - material price fluctuations [11]. 3.3 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Chinese economic data is positive, and the Fed's possible interest - rate cut has supported the copper price. However, the domestic copper industry is in the off - season, and the downstream demand is weak. The inventory is expected to accumulate, but the decline in the copper price is limited. It is expected to remain sideways in the short term, with the Shanghai copper running in the range of 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton [13]. - **Aluminum**: The production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing, while the downstream demand is affected by the off - season. The inventory has increased. Although there are still some positive factors such as interest - rate cut expectations, the short - term is expected to be sideways. Investors can consider buying on dips in August [15]. - **Nickel**: In the medium - to - long term, the nickel industry has an oversupply situation. The price of nickel ore is falling slowly, and the stainless - steel price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to short on rallies moderately [17]. - **Tin**: The domestic refined - tin production has increased, and the supply of tin ore is gradually improving. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and the inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the Shanghai tin 09 contract running in the range of 255,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Gold and Silver**: The new US tariffs and weak employment data have increased the market's interest - rate cut expectations, and the precious - metal prices have rebounded. However, the Fed's hawkish remarks have also put pressure on the prices. It is expected that the prices of gold and silver will have support at the bottom and are recommended for range trading [18][19]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low - profit level, the supply is high, and the demand is affected by the real - estate market and export factors. The inventory is slightly lower than last year, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to be sideways in the short term, with the 09 contract focusing on the range of 4,900 - 5,100 yuan/ton [20][21]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is abundant, the demand has rigid support but the growth rate is slowing down. The 09 contract is expected to be sideways in the range of 2,400 - 2,550 yuan/ton, and investors can consider buying on dips for the peak - season contracts [22][23]. - **Styrene**: The cost is affected by factors such as oil prices and pure - benzene production. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The macro - environment is improving slightly. It is expected to be sideways, with the price focusing on the range of 7,100 - 7,400 yuan/ton [24][26]. - **Rubber**: After a continuous rise, the rubber price has slightly corrected, but the cost support remains strong, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias, focusing on the range of 15,200 - 15,600 yuan/ton [27][28]. - **Urea**: The supply has decreased slightly, the agricultural demand is sporadic, and the compound - fertilizer demand is increasing. The price is expected to be range - bound, with support at 1,700 - 1,730 yuan/ton and resistance at 1,800 - 1,830 yuan/ton [31]. - **Methanol**: The supply has decreased slightly, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. The inventory in the port area has increased rapidly. The methanol price is expected to be sideways with a bearish bias [32][33]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply has tightened slightly, the downstream demand has a replenishment need, but the recovery rate of the operating rate is slower than the same period. The polyolefin price is expected to be sideways in the short term, with the L2509 contract focusing on the range of 7,200 - 7,500 yuan/ton and the PP2509 contract focusing on the range of 6,900 - 7,200 yuan/ton [33][34]. - **Soda Ash**: The impact of the relevant policies on production is limited. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is expected to accumulate. The 09 contract is expected to face pressure, and it is recommended to short the 09 contract [36]. 3.5 Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has improved. With the approaching of the peak season and the tight spot market, the cotton price is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias [37]. - **Apples**: The early - maturing apples in the western region have limited trading, and the inventory apples in the Shandong region have slow sales. The price of early - maturing apples is weak, and the inventory apples are stable. With the upcoming supply increase of early - maturing paper - bag Gala apples, attention should be paid to the quality and price trends. The apple price is expected to remain high and sideways [38]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube - fruit is in the swelling period, and the price in the sales area has increased. The jujube price is expected to rise sideways in the near future [38]. 3.6 Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: In the short term, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The pig price is expected to continue to bottom out. In the medium term, the price may rebound due to improved consumption, but the rebound height is limited. In the long term, the supply will continue to increase, and the price will be under pressure. The 09 contract can be observed, and investors can consider shorting the 11 and 01 contracts on rallies and pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [40][41]. - **Eggs**: The current egg price is at a low level, and the demand may increase during the Mid - Autumn Festival and school - opening periods. However, the supply is sufficient, and the high - supply situation in the long term is difficult to reverse. It is recommended to short on rallies for the main 10 contract, and consider going long on dips for the 12 and 01 contracts if the culling process accelerates [42]. - **Corn**: The spot price fluctuates slightly, and the 09 contract is expected to be range - bound between 2,250 - 2,300 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policies and substitute products [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean supply has tightened, and the price has a rising trend, but the increase is limited. The domestic soybean and soybean - meal inventories are accumulating, and the spot - price increase is restricted. In the medium - to - long term, the price may be strong. Investors can hold long positions in the M2511 and M2601 contracts and reduce positions on rallies [46][48]. - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term prices of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils are expected to be sideways with a bullish bias. The 01 contracts of these oils have support and resistance levels, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Attention should be paid to the rapeseed - oil 11 - 01 reverse arbitrage [47][55].