一、 所谓交易，不过是借假修真 在这个市场上，每一天开盘，都是一场赤裸裸的人性公开展览。 一根K线，两种颜色。看似冰冷的数字背后，是无数人贪婪、恐惧、犹豫、愤怒与狂喜的交织。它是欲 望与理智激烈搏杀后，在盘面上留下的带血痕迹。 有人说，期货市场是埋葬精英的坟墓。这并非危言耸听。人类历史上的智者，如牛顿、爱因斯坦，甚至 政治强人丘吉尔，都在这片红绿海洋中折戟沉沙。牛顿在巨亏后曾感叹："我可以计算天体运行的轨 迹，却无法计算人性的疯狂。" 为什么？因为在社会生活中，我们可以用面具、用学历、用地位去掩饰人性的弱点。但在交易市场，你 的每一次下单，都会将你内心最深处的贪嗔痴暴露无遗。 你以为你在交易市场，其实是市场在交易你。 它像一面照妖镜，折射人生，映照人性。 二、 痛苦的根源：只有背叛本能，才能触碰真理 在期货市场，做正确的事，往往意味着违背人性。 当应该恐惧时： 本能会让你侥幸，让你死死抱着亏损的单子，幻想价格回调，结果越陷越深，直至爆 仓。 大多数人的失败，不是因为不懂技术，而是无法超越基因里的恐惧与贪婪。 心理学家马斯洛曾说："心若改变，你的态度跟着改变；态度改变，你的习惯跟着改变；习惯改变，你 的性格跟着 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are long - term bullish with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended for selling call options [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for taking profits on long positions at high levels or range short - term trading; Aluminum is suggested to buy on dips; Nickel is for waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][10][11][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade in a range; Soda ash 01 contract is for a short - selling strategy [1][21][23][24][30][32] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade in a range; PTA is in low - level oscillation; Apples are expected to be slightly bullish; Jujubes are expected to be slightly bearish [1][33][34][35] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs are facing resistance in rebound; Eggs have limited upside; Corn is in a bottom - building phase; Soybean meal is in range oscillation; Oils are in a bottom - building and rebounding phase [1][37][39][41][43][45] Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some sectors are affected by policy, supply - demand, and international factors. For example, the macro - financial sector is influenced by domestic policies and global risk preferences; the non - ferrous metals sector is affected by international trade and supply - demand fundamentals; the agricultural and livestock sector is related to production capacity, consumption seasons, and policies [5][10][37] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: A - share market is in oscillation. Global risk preference and domestic policies fail to boost market sentiment. The market lacks a clear main line, so index futures may oscillate. Long - term bullish with a strategy of buying on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The third - quarter monetary policy report maintains a moderately loose tone. The possibility of using total - volume monetary policy tools this year is limited. The bond market is in a range - trading phase, waiting for policy signals from the December Central Economic Work Conference [5] Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking**: The coal market has tight supply - demand and rising prices. Supply is restricted by mine shutdowns, and demand is improving. It is expected to trade in a range [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price is in narrow - range oscillation. The market is affected by macro - policies and supply - demand fundamentals. The price has limited downside due to low valuation [7] - **Glass**: Production cuts are implemented. Supply is reduced, but demand is weak. The inventory is relatively high, and there is delivery pressure. It is recommended to sell call options [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price hits a record high and then falls. It is affected by trade, supply, and interest - rate policies. The supply is tightening, but the demand is suppressed by high prices. It is expected to trade in a high - level range [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The bauxite supply is expected to improve. The production capacity and inventory are changing. The market is over - trading some expectations. It is recommended to strengthen observation [10][11] - **Nickel**: The new RKAB policy brings uncertainty. The supply is expected to be loose in the long - term. It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The production is changing, and the supply is expected to improve. The downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended for range trading [18] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by the US government shutdown, employment, and interest - rate policies, they are in oscillation. They are supported by interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion demand. It is recommended for range trading [18][20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is under pressure, supply is high, and demand is weak. The export growth sustainability is questionable. It is expected to be slightly bearish in oscillation [22] - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by alumina production and inventory, the valuation is under pressure. It is expected to be slightly bearish in oscillation [24] - **Styrene**: The cost and supply - demand fundamentals are weak. It is expected to be slightly bearish in oscillation [25][26] - **Rubber**: The market lacks a clear driving force. The inventory and production capacity utilization are changing. It is expected to trade in a range [26] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is spreading. The price is expected to oscillate, and the rebound sustainability needs attention [27][28] - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, and the demand is weak. The inventory is increasing. It is expected to trade in a range [28] - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand improvement is limited. It is expected to be bearish in oscillation [30] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in surplus, and the demand is weak. The 01 contract is for a short - selling strategy [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation is changing. The seed - cotton price is high, and trade negotiations are progressing. It is expected to trade in a range [33] - **PTA**: The oil price is affecting, and the supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation. It is in low - level oscillation [34] - **Apples**: The ground trading is ending, and the出库 is starting. The production and quality are declining. It is expected to be slightly bullish [34] - **Jujubes**: The acquisition price is changing, and the market sentiment is weak. It is expected to be slightly bearish [36] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The short - term price is in narrow - range oscillation. The long - term supply is high, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to arbitrage [37][38][39] - **Eggs**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is stable. The price increase is limited. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 - contract and trade in a range for the 01 - contract [39][40] - **Corn**: The short - term supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The long - term cost has support. It is in a bottom - building phase [41][42] - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by US policies and Brazilian planting, it is in range oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the 3000 - yuan support level [43][44] - **Oils**: Different oils have different supply - demand situations. They are expected to bottom - build and rebound in the short - term and trade in a wide range in the long - term [45][49]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 10 月 16 日 | ◆股指： | 宏观金融 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | --- | --- | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 建议观望 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 建议逢低持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 逢低买入 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡运行 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头思路 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡运行 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡运行 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡运行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏强 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings 1.1 Macro Finance - Index Futures: Bullish on dips [1][6] - Treasury Bonds: Sideways [1][6] 1.2 Black Building Materials - Rebar: Hold off for now [1][8] - Iron Ore: Sideways [1][8] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [1][10] 1.3 Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Range trading or hold off [1][13] - Aluminum: Buy on dips after pullbacks [1][15] - Nickel: Hold off or short on rallies [1][17] - Tin: Range trading [1][17] - Gold: Range trading [1][18] - Silver: Range trading [1][18] 1.4 Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Sideways [1][20] - Soda Ash: Short 09 and long 05 arbitrage [1] - Caustic Soda: Sideways [1][22] - Styrene: Sideways [1][24] - Rubber: Sideways with a bullish bias [1][27] - Urea: Sideways [1][31] - Methanol: Sideways [1][32] - Polyolefins: Wide - range sideways [1][33] 1.5 Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Sideways with a bullish bias [1][37] - Apples: Sideways with a bullish bias [1][38] - Jujubes: Sideways with a bullish bias [1][38] 1.6 Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Hogs: Bearish on rallies [1][40] - Eggs: Bearish on rallies [1][42] - Corn: Wide - range sideways [1][43] - Soybean Meal: Range - bound [1][46] - Oils and Fats: Sideways with a bullish bias [1][47] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall futures market shows a diversified trend, with different investment strategies recommended for various sectors based on their supply - demand fundamentals, macro - economic factors, and policy impacts. For example, in the macro - finance sector, the index futures are expected to rise in the medium - term due to policy support and capital inflows, while the treasury bonds are constrained by the strong performance of the equity market. In the non - ferrous metals sector, copper is likely to maintain a high - level sideways trend due to a combination of factors such as economic data and inventory levels [6][13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The US inflation data has affected the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The index has strengthened due to policy support, capital inflows, and event catalysts. After reaching a short - term high, it may consolidate, but the medium - term upward trend remains. Investors with positions can hold or lock in profits on pullbacks, while those without positions can consider buying on dips [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is currently constrained by the strong performance of risk assets. Although the equity market has ended its eight - day winning streak, the adjustment is limited, and the current equity - dominant pattern may continue to suppress the bond market in the short term. Attention should be paid to the upcoming economic data to see if it can support the bond market [6]. 3.2 Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price has continued to decline. The cost is at a neutral level, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market should pay attention to the implementation of crude - steel production limits and the resumption of coking - coal production. It is expected to remain sideways in the short term, and investors can hold off or engage in short - term trading [8][9]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore futures price has been weak. The supply and demand are in a state of weak balance. Considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, the iron - ore price is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias. It can be considered as a long leg when shorting other black - building materials [8][9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking - coal market has limited supply growth and stable demand, with no prominent supply - demand contradictions. The coke market is in a tight supply - demand pattern, but the weak steel sales and high iron - water production are in a game. Attention should be paid to factors such as production - limit policies, iron - water production changes, and raw - material price fluctuations [11]. 3.3 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Chinese economic data is positive, and the Fed's possible interest - rate cut has supported the copper price. However, the domestic copper industry is in the off - season, and the downstream demand is weak. The inventory is expected to accumulate, but the decline in the copper price is limited. It is expected to remain sideways in the short term, with the Shanghai copper running in the range of 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton [13]. - **Aluminum**: The production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing, while the downstream demand is affected by the off - season. The inventory has increased. Although there are still some positive factors such as interest - rate cut expectations, the short - term is expected to be sideways. Investors can consider buying on dips in August [15]. - **Nickel**: In the medium - to - long term, the nickel industry has an oversupply situation. The price of nickel ore is falling slowly, and the stainless - steel price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to short on rallies moderately [17]. - **Tin**: The domestic refined - tin production has increased, and the supply of tin ore is gradually improving. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and the inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the Shanghai tin 09 contract running in the range of 255,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Gold and Silver**: The new US tariffs and weak employment data have increased the market's interest - rate cut expectations, and the precious - metal prices have rebounded. However, the Fed's hawkish remarks have also put pressure on the prices. It is expected that the prices of gold and silver will have support at the bottom and are recommended for range trading [18][19]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low - profit level, the supply is high, and the demand is affected by the real - estate market and export factors. The inventory is slightly lower than last year, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to be sideways in the short term, with the 09 contract focusing on the range of 4,900 - 5,100 yuan/ton [20][21]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is abundant, the demand has rigid support but the growth rate is slowing down. The 09 contract is expected to be sideways in the range of 2,400 - 2,550 yuan/ton, and investors can consider buying on dips for the peak - season contracts [22][23]. - **Styrene**: The cost is affected by factors such as oil prices and pure - benzene production. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The macro - environment is improving slightly. It is expected to be sideways, with the price focusing on the range of 7,100 - 7,400 yuan/ton [24][26]. - **Rubber**: After a continuous rise, the rubber price has slightly corrected, but the cost support remains strong, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias, focusing on the range of 15,200 - 15,600 yuan/ton [27][28]. - **Urea**: The supply has decreased slightly, the agricultural demand is sporadic, and the compound - fertilizer demand is increasing. The price is expected to be range - bound, with support at 1,700 - 1,730 yuan/ton and resistance at 1,800 - 1,830 yuan/ton [31]. - **Methanol**: The supply has decreased slightly, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. The inventory in the port area has increased rapidly. The methanol price is expected to be sideways with a bearish bias [32][33]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply has tightened slightly, the downstream demand has a replenishment need, but the recovery rate of the operating rate is slower than the same period. The polyolefin price is expected to be sideways in the short term, with the L2509 contract focusing on the range of 7,200 - 7,500 yuan/ton and the PP2509 contract focusing on the range of 6,900 - 7,200 yuan/ton [33][34]. - **Soda Ash**: The impact of the relevant policies on production is limited. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is expected to accumulate. The 09 contract is expected to face pressure, and it is recommended to short the 09 contract [36]. 3.5 Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has improved. With the approaching of the peak season and the tight spot market, the cotton price is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias [37]. - **Apples**: The early - maturing apples in the western region have limited trading, and the inventory apples in the Shandong region have slow sales. The price of early - maturing apples is weak, and the inventory apples are stable. With the upcoming supply increase of early - maturing paper - bag Gala apples, attention should be paid to the quality and price trends. The apple price is expected to remain high and sideways [38]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube - fruit is in the swelling period, and the price in the sales area has increased. The jujube price is expected to rise sideways in the near future [38]. 3.6 Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: In the short term, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The pig price is expected to continue to bottom out. In the medium term, the price may rebound due to improved consumption, but the rebound height is limited. In the long term, the supply will continue to increase, and the price will be under pressure. The 09 contract can be observed, and investors can consider shorting the 11 and 01 contracts on rallies and pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [40][41]. - **Eggs**: The current egg price is at a low level, and the demand may increase during the Mid - Autumn Festival and school - opening periods. However, the supply is sufficient, and the high - supply situation in the long term is difficult to reverse. It is recommended to short on rallies for the main 10 contract, and consider going long on dips for the 12 and 01 contracts if the culling process accelerates [42]. - **Corn**: The spot price fluctuates slightly, and the 09 contract is expected to be range - bound between 2,250 - 2,300 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policies and substitute products [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean supply has tightened, and the price has a rising trend, but the increase is limited. The domestic soybean and soybean - meal inventories are accumulating, and the spot - price increase is restricted. In the medium - to - long term, the price may be strong. Investors can hold long positions in the M2511 and M2601 contracts and reduce positions on rallies [46][48]. - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term prices of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils are expected to be sideways with a bullish bias. The 01 contracts of these oils have support and resistance levels, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Attention should be paid to the rapeseed - oil 11 - 01 reverse arbitrage [47][55].

Core Insights - The national futures market in China experienced significant growth in July, with trading volume reaching 1.059 billion contracts, a year-on-year increase of 48.89%, and a trading value of 71.31 trillion yuan, up 36.03% year-on-year [1][3][5]. Trading Volume Summary - From January to July, the cumulative trading volume of the national futures market was 5.135 billion contracts, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.11% [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange accounted for 25.90% of the total trading volume, with 1.330 billion contracts traded, marking a 13.15% increase year-on-year [2]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange had a trading volume of 1.785 billion contracts, representing 34.77% of the national market, with a year-on-year growth of 26.06% [2]. Trading Value Summary - The cumulative trading value from January to July was 411.04 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 23.09% [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's trading value was 134.96 trillion yuan, accounting for 32.83% of the total market, with a year-on-year growth of 21.76% [2]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's trading value was 52.27 trillion yuan, representing 12.72% of the national market, with a year-on-year increase of 5.81% [2]. Open Interest Summary - As of the end of July, the total open interest in the national futures market increased by 3.98% compared to the previous month [8]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's open interest was 1.144 billion contracts, accounting for 21.94% of the national market, with a month-on-month decrease of 2.33% [8]. Product Trading Performance - In July, the top three products by trading volume on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were gold (24.95%), silver (14.80%), and crude oil (8.89%) [12]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's top products included soda ash (19.38%), glass (18.18%), and caustic soda (12.26%) [12]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange's leading products were coking coal (26.66%), palm oil (12.24%), and soybean meal (10.45%) [12]. Financial Futures Performance - The top three financial futures by trading volume in July were the CSI 1000 stock index futures (27.52%), 30-year treasury bond futures (15.45%), and CSI 300 stock index futures (14.04%) [13].