投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 9月份，由于进入传统旺季，企业生产经营活动加快，制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活 动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为49.8%、50%和50.6%，比上月上升0.2、下降0.3和上升0.1 个百分点，三大指数整体有所回升且高于临界点，我国经济总体产出保持扩张。目前，国内 投资方面，房地产销售有所放缓，房企资金来源有所恶化，且投资端政策受限，房地产投资仍 旧偏弱；基建投资继续放缓，虽然专项债发行加快，但资金到位较慢，基础设施项目建设施工 进度整体较慢；制造业投资继续放缓；由于国外需求保持韧性但国内需求偏弱，制造业企业短 期补库动力有所下降，整体处于被动补库阶段。消费端增长速度有所放缓，但对经济的拉动作 用仍然较强。出口由于外部冲击缓和以及外需回暖，出口整体保持韧性，但未来随着美国补库 需求减弱出口增速或仍将放缓，出口对经济的拉动作用预计在四季度逐步减弱。整体来看，在 需求端，外需短期有所加快、内需短期回暖但仍旧偏弱，需求整体有所改善。在生产方面，由 于国内进入旺季以及外需回升，工业生产增速明显加快；预计四季度随着美国补库减弱，但内 需政策刺激对总需求形成支撑， ...

Core Viewpoint - The impact of production restrictions in Tangshan and Inner Mongolia on the black metal sector has not yet manifested, while the favorable conditions from the US interest rate cut are maintaining high prices in the sector [1] Group 1: Black Metal Sector - Current production restrictions in Tangshan and Inner Mongolia have not yet affected the supply-demand structure of black metal products [1] - The US interest rate cut, being the first of the year, aligns with expectations and sets a positive tone for upcoming domestic meetings, suggesting a potential upward trend in the black construction materials sector [1] - Iron ore fundamentals remain healthy, with production recovering and low inventory levels, although demand for rebar during peak season is yet to be validated, limiting the upward price potential for iron ore [1] Group 2: Steel and Raw Materials - The scrap steel market shows no significant contradictions in fundamentals and is expected to follow the trends of finished products, indicating short-term price fluctuations [1] - Coking coal prices are stabilizing due to cost support, with potential production restrictions in Tangshan's coking steel enterprises, leading to expected short-term price fluctuations [1] - The coal production review is becoming stricter, but supply changes are limited, with downstream restocking beginning and a positive macro sentiment, suggesting a strong short-term price outlook [1] Group 3: Alloy and Glass Markets - The manganese-silicon market is supported by peak season expectations, but long-term supply-demand outlook appears pessimistic, indicating potential downward pressure on prices [1] - The silicon iron market has limited downward space, but the supply-demand balance is expected to loosen in the long term, leading to price pressures [1] - The glass market is experiencing weak demand, but seasonal and policy expectations may lead to fluctuations, with a need for market-driven capacity reduction in the long term [1] Group 4: Overall Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment is influenced by "anti-involution" dynamics, with the US interest rate cut fostering positive expectations for domestic meetings, supporting sector prices [1] - Inventory replenishment before the end of the month is expected to support raw material prices, with cost support for steel prices, indicating a strong overall market despite sector differentiation [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a weak fundamental state with price upward pressure, but there are still expectations for peak - season demand. The short - term trend may be oscillatory, and future focus should be on actual demand and macro - policy trends [3]. - The current high price of iron ore is not sustainable due to weakening steel fundamentals, insufficient demand in the peak season, and pressure on steel mill profits [20]. - After the lifting of coking enterprise production restrictions, the supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow. The coke futures may still decline in the short term, and it is not recommended to short - allocate coking coal [32]. - Ferroalloys have bottom support but face upward pressure under the current situation of high production rates and weak downstream demand [51]. - The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches and stable rigid demand [65]. - The glass market has near - term pressure, with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches. The supply may slightly increase, and the market is in a state of weak balance to weak surplus [93]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the closing prices of steel futures contracts such as rebar and hot - rolled coil changed compared to the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3143 yuan/ton, up from 3117 yuan/ton on September 4. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil also had slight changes [4][7][10]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by the parade, this week's pig iron production decreased significantly. After the parade, the iron ore price rebounded strongly, and the market believes that short - term production restrictions have limited impact on iron ore. The steel market has a weak fundamental state, but there are still expectations for peak - season demand [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore futures contracts such as the 01, 05, and 09 contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the 01 contract closed at 789.5 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao also had slight changes [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: The daily average pig iron production decreased by 11.29 tons this week compared to last week. The 45 - port ore inventory increased by 62.3 tons week - on - week. The global and Australia - Brazil iron ore shipments increased [26]. - **Market Analysis**: The current high price of iron ore is due to the resumption of steel mills' production after the parade and the weakening of coking coal. However, this upward trend is not sustainable due to the weakening steel fundamentals [20]. Coal and Coke - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the prices and spreads of coking coal and coke futures contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the coking coal 01 - 05 spread was - 72 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also had certain changes [38][39]. - **Market Analysis**: After the lifting of production restrictions, the supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow. The coke futures may still decline in the short term. The coking coal market has a relatively loose supply - demand structure, but the short - term surplus problem is not serious [32]. Ferroalloys - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the prices and spreads of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese changed compared to the previous day. For example, the ferrosilicon 01 - 05 spread was - 110 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan from the previous day [52][56]. - **Market Analysis**: Ferroalloys have bottom support but face upward pressure under the current situation of high production rates and weak downstream demand. There is a possibility of production reduction due to falling profits [51]. Soda Ash - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the prices and spreads of soda ash futures contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1387 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from the previous day, with a daily increase of 2.21% [66]. - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches. The rigid demand is stable, and the cost of raw salt and coal is temporarily stable [65]. Glass - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the prices and spreads of glass futures contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the glass 05 contract closed at 1287 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan from the previous day, with a daily increase of 4.13% [94]. - **Market Analysis**: The glass market has near - term pressure, with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches. The supply may slightly increase, and the market is in a state of weak balance to weak surplus [93].

1. PVC and Caustic Soda Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Caustic soda market is in the off - season, with production increasing month - on - month and spot prices generally stable with a weakening trend. There is an expected increase in supply in August, but potential supply reduction in late August may support prices. The overall expectation is neutral to weak [2]. - PVC prices are expected to continue to face pressure, with increasing inventory and limited improvement in demand. New capacity releases will add pressure to the supply side, and the downstream shows no sign of improvement [2]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's folded - 100% price dropped by 2.4%, and Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda's folded - 100% price dropped by 0.8%. The price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.2%, and the price of ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged. Futures prices also showed a downward trend [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate increased by 1.7%, and the PVC industry's operating rate decreased by 3.4%. The profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 12.3%, while the profit of northwest integrated production decreased by 2.2% [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of the caustic soda downstream alumina industry decreased by 4.1%, and the operating rate of PVC downstream products showed mixed trends. The pre - sales volume of PVC increased by 7.3% [2]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda's factory and warehouse inventories decreased, while PVC's total social inventory increased by 4.9% [2]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The supply - demand situation of pure benzene is expected to improve in the third quarter, and its price is slightly strong, but the rebound space is limited. The supply - demand of styrene is still weak, but short - term price support comes from the improvement of the domestic commodity atmosphere and the relatively strong pure benzene [5]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Brent crude oil (October) dropped by 0.7%, and CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.9%. The price of pure benzene in East China increased by 1.2%, and the price of styrene in East China increased by 0.1% [5]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 4.1%, and styrene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 3.0% [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate decreased by 0.5%, and the domestic pure benzene operating rate increased by 2.6%. The operating rates of downstream products showed mixed trends [5]. 3. Polyester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The supply of PX is expected to weaken marginally in August, with limited upward and downward space. PTA's short - term price has some support, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be weak. Ethylene glycol's supply is turning loose, and short - term prices are boosted by the commodity market. Short - fiber's supply - demand pattern is weak, and bottle - chip's processing fee has limited upward space [8]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Brent crude oil (October) dropped by 0.7%, and CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.9%. Most polyester product prices showed a downward trend [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: PX's supply is stable, and PTA's supply and demand are expected to improve in the short term but weaken in the medium term. Ethylene glycol's supply is increasing, and short - fiber's supply - demand is weak. Bottle - chip's demand is not strong [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of various products in the polyester industry chain showed different degrees of decline [8]. 4. Polyolefins Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - In August, the supply pressure of PP and PE increases, and the downstream operating rate is at a low level. However, as the season turns to the peak season, there are potential restocking conditions. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant [11]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: The futures prices of LLDPE and PP showed a downward trend, and the spot prices of some products also decreased slightly [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of PP and PE is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak, but there is potential for restocking [11]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP are increasing [11]. 5. Methanol Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The inland methanol production is at a high level, and the port inventory has increased significantly this week. The downstream demand is weak due to low profits, and the 09 contract has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation. The 01 contract may benefit from the seasonal peak season and potential production cuts in Iran [14]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: The futures prices of methanol decreased slightly, and the spot prices showed different trends in different regions [14]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol decreased by 9.5%, and the port inventory increased by 14.48% [14]. - **Operating Rate**: The domestic upstream operating rate increased by 2.28%, and the operating rates of some downstream products showed different trends [14]. 6. Crude Oil Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Recently, oil prices have been weak due to the reduction of geopolitical risk premiums and the expectation of loose supply. Although there is some demand support, the overall situation still puts pressure on the market. It is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy [17]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Brent crude oil dropped by 0.69%, and WTI crude oil decreased by 0.06%. The prices of refined oil products also showed a downward trend [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, but the decline in US EIA crude oil inventory and refinery processing increases show some demand support [17]. 7. Urea Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The main logic of the urea market this month is the Indian tender news. After the news was realized, the market gave back its gains due to lower - than - expected volume. The supply remains high, and the demand from the agricultural sector weakens. The export has limited support for the market, and the price returns to the oscillation range [22]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: The futures prices of urea showed a downward trend, and the spot prices in different regions also decreased slightly [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea increased, and the operating rate of production enterprises also increased. The domestic urea inventory showed different trends [21][24].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for June is 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, with all sub-indices improving except for employment and business activity expectations[1] - New orders index turned from contraction to expansion at 50.2%, contributing 0.12 percentage points to the marginal improvement of the manufacturing PMI[5] - The procurement volume index also shifted from contraction to expansion, showing the most significant improvement among all sub-indices, marking the highest level since 2015 for this period[5] Group 2: Employment and Expectations - The employment index for June is 47.9%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, marking the weakest level of the year[1] - Business activity expectations index stands at 52%, down 0.5 percentage points, also the weakest year-to-date[1] - There is a disconnection between active procurement activities and the decline in employment and business expectations, indicating potential sustainability issues in procurement[13] Group 3: Construction Sector Analysis - The construction sector's PMI rose to 52.8% in June, primarily supported by the improvement in the real estate sector rather than infrastructure[17] - The civil engineering activity index recorded 56.7%, indicating a high level of activity, but this is a decline from May, suggesting that the construction sector's recovery is not driven by infrastructure projects[17] - The real estate sector's new orders index remains below 50%, indicating that the sustainability of improvements in the construction sector needs further validation from sales and investment trends[18] Group 4: Risk Factors - Consumer confidence recovery is slow, and policy implementation is not meeting expectations, posing risks to the economic outlook[23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the copper price is expected to rise due to macroeconomic factors, including a weakening US dollar and anticipated interest rate cuts, alongside supply constraints and low inventory levels [1][2]. - The US macro data released indicates a downward revision of Q1 GDP to -0.5% and a rise in unemployment claims to the highest level since November 2021, which may enhance expectations for monetary easing [1]. - The LME copper inventory has been declining since the beginning of the year, currently below 100,000 tons, which could trigger a short squeeze and support copper prices [2]. Group 2 - The National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) has shown a strong increase of 1.45%, with notable gains in stocks such as Northern Copper Industry (000737) up 6.08% and Yahua Group (002497) up 5.12% [1]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that copper prices will reach a high of $10,050 per ton in August 2025, with an upward revision of the average copper price forecast for the second half of the year to $9,890 per ton, an increase of 8.2% from previous estimates [2]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index account for 51.92% of the index, with significant companies including Zijin Mining (601899) and Northern Rare Earth (600111) [3].