证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 兖矿能源(600188) 高升：煤炭钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 李睿：煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 刘波： 煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 量增本降经营显韧性，并购落地成长启新篇 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 31 日 [Table_S 事件：2025 ummar年y]8 月 29 日，兖矿能源发布中期报告，2025 年上半年公司实 现营业收入 593.49 亿元，同比下降 17.93%，实现归母净利润 46.52 亿元， 同比下降 39.38%；扣非后净利润 44.30 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][80]. Core Views - The company is a state-owned coal giant with stable profitability and growth driven by joint ventures, highlighting its value in dividends [5][10]. - The company has a robust coal resource base, ranking third in total coal reserves and second in recoverable reserves among listed coal companies [7][29]. - The company is actively expanding its coal chemical business, which is expected to contribute to new growth drivers [7][67]. - The company has a strong cash flow and a low debt ratio, indicating potential for increased dividends in the future [10][76]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price of the company's stock is 10.71 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 142 billion yuan [3]. Financial Data - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 192.97 billion yuan, with a net profit of 19.53 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.09% [6]. - The company’s debt-to-asset ratio stands at 44.80% [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 15.40 billion, 16.82 billion, and 17.96 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.2, 8.4, and 7.9 [8][72]. Investment Logic - The company benefits from high-quality coal resources and a high proportion of long-term contracts, ensuring stable coal prices and low sales costs [10][75]. - The company is diversifying into downstream industries, forming a coal-chemical integrated growth model [10][75]. Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a stable dividend payout ratio of around 30% from 2017 to 2022, with plans to increase dividends in 2023 and 2024 [10][76].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for China Coal Energy (601898.SH) [4][8] Core Views - The company's performance demonstrates resilience as increased volume and cost reductions offset the impact of price declines. In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 189.4 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 19.32 billion yuan, down 1.1% year-on-year [4][7][8] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.92 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) for the year 2024 [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the total coal sales volume was 284.83 million tons, a minor decrease of 110,000 tons year-on-year. The total revenue from coal business was 160.71 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 24.7%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points [7] - The self-produced coal sales volume increased by 2.5% to 137.57 million tons, while the sales revenue from this segment was 77.30 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year [7] - The company’s coal chemical business revenue was 20.52 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 15.2% [8] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 184.70 billion yuan, 189.19 billion yuan, and 194.62 billion yuan respectively, with expected net profits of 18.51 billion yuan, 19.62 billion yuan, and 20.22 billion yuan [6][8] - The report anticipates a continued decline in coal prices, with the average price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal expected to drop by 11.4% in 2024 [8] Dividend Policy - The overall cash dividend rate increased from 30% in 2023 to 40.65% in 2024, with projected dividend yields of 5.7% for A shares and 7.7% for H shares based on the closing price on March 24, 2025 [8]