证券研究报告 煤炭 | 煤炭开采 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 26 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邱达治 SAC：S1350525050001 qiudazhi@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | 2025 | 年 | 08 | 月 25 | 日 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | 12.25 | | | | | | 一 年 最 | / | 最 | | | | 15.92/9.42 | | 高 | 内 | 低 | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | 162,418.63 | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | 162 ...

Economic Outlook - Several foreign institutions have raised their economic growth forecasts and stock index targets for China, indicating optimism about the Chinese economy and assets [2] - Morgan Stanley has increased its target for Chinese stock indices, while Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight stance on Chinese stocks due to the strengthening of the RMB against the USD [2] - The positive outlook is supported by improved corporate earnings prospects and relatively low valuations of Chinese assets, enhancing their long-term appeal to global investors [2] Macro Economy - From January to April, the value added of large and medium-sized industrial enterprises in China grew by 8.2% year-on-year, with total operating income reaching 25.8 trillion yuan [3] - The equipment manufacturing and raw materials manufacturing sectors have seen significant demand growth due to technological upgrades, with 28 out of 31 manufacturing categories experiencing growth [3] - The average number of participants in new stock subscriptions (excluding the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and Beijing Stock Exchange) has approached 12 million this year, significantly higher than in 2023 and 2024 [4] Investment News - The People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority are actively promoting the interconnectivity of rapid payment systems between the two regions, with some services expected to launch mid-year [4] - The trend of mainland companies listing in Hong Kong is gaining momentum, with 28 mainland companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this year, raising a total of 561 million HKD in May alone, the highest monthly total since March 2021 [4] - Central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are shifting from policy advocacy to substantive implementation of market value management, with expectations for improved valuations and market confidence as assessment mechanisms are refined [4][5] Company Movements - Atour Group has issued a statement regarding an incident at its Hangzhou hotel, attributing the issue to a mistake by the laundry supplier, and has temporarily closed the affected store for comprehensive rectification [6] - Zhongying Electronics' controlling shareholder is planning a change in company control, leading to a suspension of its stock [6] - Ruoyuchen's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 4,768,071 shares, not exceeding 3% of the total share capital [7] - Wuliangye has introduced younger-targeted products and plans to accelerate the development of such products based on market conditions [8]

Summary of Baosteel Co., Ltd. Conference Call Industry Overview - The steel industry experienced significant losses in the first half of 2024, but saw a rebound at the end of September due to policy drivers. However, it faced a weak supply-demand situation again by year-end [2][4] - In the first four months of 2025, industry profits showed some recovery, but the second half of Q2 is expected to face downward pressure on steel prices due to insufficient demand and trade war tariffs [2][4] Company Performance - Baosteel Co., Ltd. reported a total profit of 9.3 billion yuan for the entire year of 2024, with a profit of 3.29 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, primarily due to lower raw material costs [2][5] - The company maintained its leading position in the domestic industry despite a challenging environment [4][21] Strategic Initiatives - Baosteel has increased its stake in Maanshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. to enhance product competitiveness and sales capabilities, transitioning from a 1+1+n strategy to a 2+2+m strategy focusing on automotive sheets, silicon steel, and high-end long products [2][6] - The Baowu Group aims to add nearly 30 million tons of new capacity through investments in Maanshan (16 million tons), Rizhao (9 million tons), and a joint venture in Saudi Arabia (planned 2.5 million tons DRI capacity) [2][7][8] Product Focus - The choice to focus on thick plates is driven by local demand in Saudi Arabia for marine engineering and shipbuilding, aligning with the country's 2030 vision for large-scale infrastructure development [8] - Baosteel's product lines include automotive and silicon steel, with good order intake in Q2 2025, although competition in low-grade silicon steel remains intense [10][11] Market Challenges - The steel market has been characterized by weak demand and price fluctuations, with cold-rolled product prices peaking in Q1 2025 before declining due to demand exhaustion and trade war impacts [12][19] - The company is actively responding to international tariffs and trade conflicts by exploring new markets and adjusting export structures to mitigate risks [14][21] Financial Outlook - Capital expenditures are expected to decrease significantly from 2026 onwards, potentially enhancing the company's ability to increase dividends [15][16] - The company aims to optimize existing capacity rather than expand further, focusing on improving efficiency and profitability [9][20] Collaboration and Competition - Baosteel is addressing competition with Maanshan by enhancing collaboration in marketing and sales, aiming to reduce reliance on intermediaries and improve overall profitability [17] - The company remains vigilant regarding international trade policies and their potential impacts on sales and market dynamics [13][14] Conclusion - Baosteel Co., Ltd. is navigating a challenging steel market with strategic investments, a focus on product optimization, and proactive measures to mitigate external risks, while maintaining profitability and preparing for future growth opportunities [21]

Group 1 - The central government aims to establish a modern enterprise system suitable for China's conditions within approximately five years, emphasizing the integrity obligations of controlling shareholders and encouraging the introduction of institutional investors with over 5% shareholding as active shareholders in listed companies [1] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) previously proposed incorporating market value management into the performance assessment of central enterprise leaders, leading to a significant increase in the market value of state-owned enterprises [1] - Central enterprises are crucial in key industries such as finance, electronics, biomedicine, power equipment, national defense, and public utilities, and their performance is closely correlated with major stock indices [1] Group 2 - The "Kotevaluation" concept focuses on strategic emerging industries and advanced technologies that can transform into future industries, emphasizing high innovation, low valuation, and international competitiveness, particularly in critical areas like semiconductors and biotechnology [2] - China National Chemical Equipment Corporation focuses on chemical equipment and rubber machinery as a central enterprise [3] - CITIC Heavy Industries is a leading company in mining machinery and is developing special robots as a second growth curve [4]