燃料油周报 | 2025-09-28 市场分析 本周燃料油期货市场表现：随着地缘局势升温，原油价格本周出现一定幅度反弹，对下游能源板块形成一定提振。 此外，高硫燃料油基本面边际改善，且FU期货仓单部分注销，促进了盘面结构的走强。FU主力合约周度涨幅录得 4.36%，LU主力合约周度涨幅录得1.9%。 油价呈现反弹态势，FU盘面结构边际走强 供应方面：近期燃料油市场未出现大规模断供事件，但局部的供应扰动值得关注。伊朗方面，参考船期数据，9月 份伊朗高硫燃料油发货量目前预计在128万吨，环比减少5万吨，同比下降46万吨。随着美国制裁持续加码，伊朗 油物流与到港遭遇一定阻力，但整体基本盘仍存，需要关注相关制裁政策的变化情况。俄罗斯方面，参考Kpler数 据，9月份俄罗斯高硫燃料油总发货量预计为289万吨，环比增加33万吨，同比下降7万吨。8月份乌克兰无人机的 攻击导致多家俄罗斯炼厂受损而检修，其燃料油供应仍面临一定制约，近期出口有所恢复。往前看，如果俄乌谈 判进展顺利，美国放松制裁、乌克兰停止袭击，俄罗斯燃料油供应存在进一步的增长空间。中东方面，随着欧佩 克放松减产（增产部分以中重质含硫原油为主），将对燃料油的供应 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish/bearish trend with limited trading operability [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish/bearish trend with limited trading operability [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bullish/bearish trend with limited trading operability [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning the short-term bullish/bearish trend is in a relatively balanced state, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating the short-term bullish/bearish trend is in a relatively balanced state, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil may fluctuate weakly in the short term, influenced by macro and supply-demand factors, with attention on the progress of US-Iran nuclear talks and the recurrence risk of the Middle East situation [1] - Fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures are running weakly, with different trends in their cracking spreads [2] - Asphalt has shown strong performance recently, with potential increases in supply and demand [3] - LPG's fundamentals are generally loose, and the market is oscillating after the geopolitical impact fades [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined slightly, with the SC08 contract dropping 1.12% during the day [1] - Last week, US EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 5.836 million barrels more than expected, but the four-week average of refined oil apparent demand was still 1.6% lower than the same period last year [1] - In the third-quarter peak season, the global oil inventory accumulation may narrow, but the loose situation is difficult to fundamentally change under the OPEC+ production increase pressure [1] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The decline of SC has led to the weak operation of fuel oil futures [2] - As the geopolitical premium of high-sulfur fuel oil fades, FU is weaker than LU [2] - The demand for ship bunkering and deep processing is sluggish, and the demand boost for high-sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East and North Africa in summer is discounted due to the high cracking valuation [2] - The cracking spread of low-sulfur fuel oil has rebounded from a low level [2] Asphalt - BU remained strong today despite SC leading the decline [3] - In July, refineries plan to produce 2.47 million tons of asphalt, with some refinery overhauls postponed and others resuming production [3] - The supply of asphalt may be compressed due to the expected increase in the operating rate of Sinopec's deep processing units [3] - The cumulative year-on-year increase in the shipment volume of 54 sample refineries is considerable, and the terminal demand is expected to be substantially boosted soon [3] LPG - After the geopolitical situation eases, the Middle East market has declined significantly [4] - The domestic chemical demand has rebounded, and the cost advantage of PG in the chemical industry has increased [4] - The supply pressure may decrease, and the market is oscillating after the geopolitical impact fades [4]

Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil Industry Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: June 2, 2025 [2] - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - Crude oil production increase expectations and macro bearish factors weaken cost support. Coupled with weak demand in the off - season and high inventory pressure, fuel oil maintains a pattern where it is easier to fall than to rise [5] Summary by Content Fundamental Information - Fujeirah fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.395 million barrels (a 12.7% decline) weekly, and the start of power generation demand in the Middle East alleviates regional supply pressure [4] - Middle - Eastern countries such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia have increased high - sulfur fuel oil power generation tenders, supporting the fundamentals of the high - sulfur market [4] - Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 0.832 million barrels to 22.338 million barrels (a new high this year), and the inflow of European cargoes intensifies supply looseness [4] - During the off - season of marine fuel consumption and with the expectation of refinery restart, the spot price dropped by 85 yuan/ton weekly; OPEC+ production increase expectations suppress crude oil costs [4] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Price and Spread Data - **Price Changes**: Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil M + 2 was at $472.35/ton on June 2, 2025, with a daily increase of $6.73 and a weekly decrease of $0.98. Other regions also had corresponding price changes [6] - **Spread Changes**: LU futures M + 3 - Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil M + 2 was at $6.4711/ton on June 2, 2025, with a daily decrease of $19.6327 and a weekly decrease of $6.7902. Other spreads also had different changes [6] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Price and Spread Data - **Price Changes**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil M + 1 was at $407.54/ton on June 2, 2025, with a daily decrease of $3.84 and a weekly decrease of $12.86. Other regions also had price fluctuations [28] - **Spread Changes**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil monthly spread was at 7.45 on June 2, 2025, with a daily decrease of 7.23 and a weekly decrease of 10.42. Other spreads also changed accordingly [28] Supply and Demand - Related Data - **Supply**: Data on low - sulfur fuel oil exports from Kuwait, Brazil, and Russia, as well as China's bonded port fuel oil monthly supply are presented [15][17][21] - **Demand**: Data on China's low - sulfur fuel oil port actual consumption, Singapore's marine fuel bunkering volume, and high - sulfur fuel oil sales in Singapore and Fujairah are provided [22][29][40] Inventory - Related Data - Inventory data for Singapore's residue, ARA fuel oil, Fujeirah fuel oil, and fuel oil in Zhoushan Port's bonded warehouse are shown [24][25] - Seasonal data on high - sulfur floating storage inventories in Malaysia and Singapore are also presented [48][49] Other Data - Seasonal data on low - sulfur fuel oil cracking spreads, monthly spreads, and price differences between different regions are provided [7][9][12] - Seasonal data on high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spreads, monthly spreads, and price differences between different regions are also included [32][34][37]