证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 预计钢矿继续震荡走势 2025年12月12日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：纪晓云 联系方式：010-56711796 期货从业资格证号：F3066027 期货交易咨询号：Z0011402 钢矿观点 钢材：中央经济工作会议部分内容超预期，但政策总体侧重于托底，不在于提振，对盘面无明显刺激作用。 宏观预期因素已经减退，市场重回产业层面。本期螺卷产销存均下降。高炉检修增多，铁水产量继续下降。 总体看，供需双弱。上游焦炭第二轮提降已全面落地，成本线不断下移。预计螺卷震荡偏弱，关注螺纹主 力2605合约3050能否跌破。 铁矿石：本期铁水日产229.2万吨，环比减少3.1万吨。预期后期继续减量。本期国内铁矿到港下降，但发 运积极。综合判断，预计铁矿继续维持震荡走势。新主力2605合约压力位800，支撑位734。 【交易策略】 建议短线操作。 重要资讯 3、美联储货币政策委员会（FOMC）会后公布，降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%–3.75%。这是美联储年内 的第三次降息，幅度均为25个基点。 4、国家统计局：11月份，中国CPI同比上 ...

Market Performance - On December 10, 2025, the A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3900.5 points, down 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.29% to 13316.42 points, and the ChiNext Index fell slightly by 0.02% to 3209 points. Overall, more than 2800 stocks declined, with total trading volume reaching 1.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 650 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The Hong Kong stock market was sluggish, but all three major indices turned positive by the end of the day. The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.42% or 106.55 points to close at 25540.78 points, with a total trading volume of 193.392 billion HKD. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 0.2% to 8954.69 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index gained 0.48% to 5581.1 points [1] - In the U.S. stock market, the three major indices had mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.61% to 47716.42 points, the S&P 500 Index increasing by 0.54% to 6849.09 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index up by 0.65% to 23365.69 points [1] New Stock Information - Yuan Chuang Co., Ltd. (stock code 001325) has an issuance price of 24.75 yuan per share and a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.93 times. The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of rubber track products, including rubber tracks for agricultural machinery and engineering machinery, which are used in various applications such as agricultural production and construction [1] Government Initiatives - The Ministry of Finance announced that the 2025 maturing special government bonds will be rolled over in an equal amount, totaling 750 billion yuan, with 400 billion yuan in 10-year bonds and 350 billion yuan in 15-year bonds. This issuance will not involve social investors, and individual investors cannot purchase these bonds. The rollover will not increase the fiscal deficit as it corresponds to existing assets and liabilities [2] - The Shenzhen Maritime Bureau has introduced 16 innovative measures to support the high-quality development of the port and shipping industry. These measures focus on safety, green development, smart development, creating an optimal business environment, and efficient industrial development. Key initiatives include implementing a "non-stop operation for ship registration" process and promoting self-service for yacht driving license renewals [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points [1] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue special treasury bonds maturing in 2025, which will be a rolling issuance of the original special treasury bonds without increasing the fiscal deficit [1] - UBS's annual outlook predicts a potential 15% upside for global stocks by the end of 2026 [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has confirmed a joint letter with the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to IPO sponsors regarding the quality of listing applications [1] - The General Administration of Market Supervision has issued a plan for enhancing professional certification capabilities from 2025 to 2030 [1] - Haiguang Information has responded to the approval of NVIDIA's H200 export to China, stating it will strengthen performance benchmarking and ecosystem compatibility [1]