Group 1 - The semiconductor industry continues to recover with rising prices, driven by AI demand and structural opportunities in AI computing, AIOT, semiconductor equipment, key components, and storage price increases [5][7][11] - In December, global semiconductor demand improved, with slight growth in PCs and smartphones, and rapid growth in TWS headphones, wearable devices, smart home products, AI servers, and new energy vehicles [5][7] - The supply side shows high inventory levels, but AI-driven demand in certain segments has led to price increases from upstream wafer foundries, while memory price hikes may slow down shipments of consumer electronics [5][7][11] Group 2 - The mechanical equipment industry has seen some export chain companies announce profit increases for the year, with companies like Juxing Technology and Taotao Automotive projecting significant profit growth [13][14] - Juxing Technology expects a net profit of 2.419 to 2.764 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a growth of 5% to 20% year-on-year, while Taotao Automotive anticipates a net profit of 800 to 850 million yuan, representing an increase of 85.5% to 97.1% [13][14] - Siemens is undergoing a strategic transformation to integrate industrial AI into its operations, aiming for revenue growth of 6% to 9% in the medium term [15][16] Group 3 - The A-share market showed slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.07% at 4082 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices also experienced declines [21][22] - The military equipment sector saw a significant increase of 4.83%, leading the industry gains, while sectors like insurance and securities faced declines [23][25] - The semiconductor sector's valuation remains high, with a PE ratio of 91.50% and a PB ratio of 72.94%, indicating strong market interest despite potential risks [6][7]

又一家国产通用GPU公司登陆资本市场。1月8日，天数智芯正式在港交所主板上市。该股上市首日一度 涨超30%，收盘涨8.44%，总市值为399亿港元，接近400亿港元。 天数智芯是2025年12月以来第四家上市的通用GPU公司，此前摩尔线程、沐曦股份和壁仞科技相继登陆 A股和港股市场，另一家GPU公司燧原科技也已开启上市辅导。 天数智芯同时宣布，将于1月26日正式发布未来三代GPGPU产品路线图，涵盖创新架构设计、高质量算 力基础设施及面向互联网的云端AI训练推理产品。业界预测2026至2028年，该路线图所涉新品将与英 伟达H200、B200系列展开正面角逐，标志着国产GPU加速进入高端AI算力市场。 此次港股IPO，公司的基石投资者阵容堪称豪华，总共引入中兴通讯、UBS AM Singapore、华胜天成 （600410）、第四范式、安擎国际、汇添富、华夏基金、芯鑫控股、明山资本等18家基石投资者，共计 认购15.83亿港元。公司吸金能力相当不俗，IPO前，公司累计募资超55亿元，背后有大钲资本、红杉中 国、元禾辰坤、邦盛资本、Princeville Capital、上海国盛、中关村科学城、第四范式、拓尔思 ...

创始人出走，管理层数次更迭，天数智芯仍未盈利 天数智芯此次融资约35亿港元，约80%将用于研发产品及解决方案。而未来五年内通用GPU芯片及加速卡的研发及商业化投入将占到募资额的一半，其余资 金将用于研发专有的软件栈、AI算力解决方案及销售、市场推广、企业运营资金等。 自去年12月5日"国产GPU第一股"摩尔线程在A股科创板上市至今，短短35天内，已有4家国产GPU公司相继在A股、港股完成IPO，接连引发抢筹，显示出市 场对国产AI芯片的高关注度和高预期值。 天数智芯为国内头部通用GPU芯片及算力系统提供商，开发自主可控、国际领先的通用GPU产品。 相较于更为市场所熟知的"国产GPU四小龙"——摩尔线程、沐曦股份、壁仞科技和燧原科技，天数智芯成立时间更早，公司架构也不同。 在国产GPU赛道中，人们更熟悉的信息是，创始人主导公司的模式，，前者创始人张建中曾为英伟达全球副总裁，决定了该公司发展路线与英伟达更为类 似。而出身于AMD（超威半导体）的陈维良，则为沐曦股份带来了整建制AMD背景的核心团队。 天数智芯的公司所有权由员工持股平台控制，管理层包括4名执行董事和8名高管组成的管理委员会监督和管理，每名成员有一票投 ...

制图:黄亚岚(元宝AI、豆包AI生成) 2025年，沉淀已久的国产AI芯片迎来关键性转折。在DeepSeek助力下，AI算力需求引爆，国产替代被 按下"加速键"。寒武纪股价狂飙，屡次登上科创板"股王"之位。国产替代年底迎来资本"盛宴"——摩尔 线程和沐曦股份先后顶着"国产GPU第一股"和"第二股"的光环登陆科创板，壁仞科技和天数智芯也在港 交所接连传出好消息，将在2026年年初正式赴港上市。几乎同期，市场传出英伟达H200被批准对华出 售的消息，业内探讨这是否会挤压国产AI芯片市场空间。今年国产AI芯片行业的发展将去往何处? 趋势1 DeepSeek引爆国产替代 国产芯片在推理赛道有机会 2025年，国产AI芯片赛道可谓是热闹非凡。2025年年初，DeepSeek横空出世，随其"破圈"而来的是AI 应用侧的大爆发，AI在口口相传间真正走入了寻常百姓家，这也意味着算力需求逐步从训练转向推 理。之后，华为打"头阵"，一众国产AI芯片厂商宣布支持DeepSeek并快速部署，国产算力热情被"点 燃"。 2025年8月，DeepSeek又发布了新一代模型DeepSeekV3.1，并在公众号留言中强调，"UE8M0FP8 ...

在 2025 年末的 A 股市场，一场关于"硬核科技"的盛宴正进入高潮。 如果说国产GPU独角兽的接连上市是令人振奋的"前菜"，那么随着2025年12月30日长鑫科技正式 递交招股书，这场 AI 算力时代的"顶级主菜"终于正式登场。 作为今年科创板最受瞩目的 IPO，长鑫科技代表着中国 AI 算力最深层的"护城河"。 算力王冠：DRAM 才是 AI 的胜负手 在 AI 大模型狂飙的今天，英伟达的GPU无疑是舞台的中心。但业界共识是：算力的上限不仅取决 于 GPU 计 算 有 多 快 ， 更 取 决 于 DRAM （ 动 态 随 机 存 取 存 储 器 ） ， GPU 的 每 一 次 计 算 都 必 须 由 DRAM内存芯片提供实时数据传输。 当前AI计算的瓶颈就是"内存墙"。即使GPU的计算速度提升了一百倍，如果内存存取速度只提升 了十倍，那么昂贵的算力资源就会因空转。在 AI 运算中，海量参数需要被高频调取，DRAM 因 此成为AI 系统的战略中枢。 特 别 是 其 顶 尖 形 态 ——HBM （ 高 带 宽 内 存 ） ， 被 黄 仁 勋 称 为 " 技 术 奇 迹 " 。 HBM 通 过 将 多 个 D ...

Summary of Conference Call on Domestic Computing Power Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the domestic computing power industry in China, particularly in the context of AI and related technologies [2][3][5]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Opportunities in Domestic Computing Power**: The domestic computing power market aligns with global trends in AI, presenting opportunities for domestic substitution, which could enhance growth potential as the overall market environment improves [2]. - **Expected Gaps Between Domestic and Overseas Computing Power**: In 2026, there are anticipated gaps in market perception, with domestic industry sentiment perceived as weaker than overseas. However, long-term capital expenditure in the domestic internet sector is expected to align closely with overseas levels due to GDP and user acceptance factors [3]. - **Catalysts for Growth**: Key catalysts for the growth of domestic computing power in 2026 include policy support, significant events, and performance forecasts, particularly in January [5]. - **CSP Capital Expenditure Trends**: Overseas CSP capital expenditure is projected to grow by approximately 50% in 2026, while domestic growth is expected to be 30-40%. However, historical data suggests that domestic capital expenditure could catch up in the coming years due to supply chain improvements and technological advancements [6]. - **Government Initiatives**: The Chinese government is likely to introduce plans related to intelligent computing during the 14th Five-Year Plan, which could serve as a significant catalyst for the development of AI and related industries [7]. Market Dynamics - **Current Market Conditions**: The market is currently at a low point, but a turning point is expected in the first half of 2026 with clearer market dynamics following internet tenders. Policy support is crucial for the listing of startups, although some advanced cards have not yet been permitted in the domestic market [9]. - **Performance of NVIDIA's H200**: The H200 product is primarily used in the training market, while domestic cards focus on inference needs. Although the H200 may not maintain its competitive edge in 2026, it will not significantly impact the trend towards self-sufficiency in China [11]. - **Chip Development by Major Companies**: Companies like Huawei, Haiguang, and Cambricon are advancing their chip technologies, with Huawei set to launch the 950 series in 2026, while Haiguang's products are expected to compete with NVIDIA's H100 [12]. Emerging Companies and Market Potential - **Startups**: Emerging companies such as Mu Xi, Mo Er, and Bi Ren Technology are rapidly advancing, with varying focuses on supply chain compatibility and performance optimization. Their growth potential is significant, with some companies showing strong revenue and profit growth [13]. - **Future Market Growth**: The outlook for the domestic chip market over the next two to three quarters is optimistic, driven by developments in supercomputing nodes and the resolution of supply chain issues [15]. Investment Recommendations - **Focus Areas for Investors**: Investors are advised to concentrate on the domestic computing power sector, particularly processor companies, server-related enterprises, and supercomputing core node companies. Early positioning in these areas is recommended [17]. - **Risks in the Sector**: Potential risks include macroeconomic impacts on downstream demand and intensified market competition. Individual company fundamentals may also affect overall industry performance [18]. Additional Important Points - **Domestic Inference Demand**: The demand for inference in China remains strong, with local models progressing rapidly, indicating a positive outlook for domestic capital expenditure and innovation [8]. - **Key Market Trends**: The development of supercomputing nodes and the ability to streamline domestic supply chains are critical for shaping the market landscape in 2026 [16].

国产算力&英伟达 Groq 的重要性 20251230 摘要 字节跳动预计 2026 年日均 Token 消耗量将大幅增长至 400 万亿，较 2025 年底的 50 万亿有显著提升，预示着对算力需求的激增，但实际算 力卡消耗量预计增长 3 至 4 倍，需关注参数优化影响。 由于英伟达老款算力卡停产，字节跳动将增加对国产算力卡的采购，尤 其是华为升腾和寒武纪的新款卡。尽管 H200 优先用于训练及外部推理， 对内推理需求将主要依赖国产卡。 市场传言字节跳动向华为下单 400 亿元采购量可能偏低，预计明年其国 产算力卡总采购额至少在六七百亿元左右，但华为升腾在字节内部表现 一般，寒武纪等其他国产厂商份额有望增加。 国产算力发展趋势确定且长期看好，字节跳动等大厂已开始讨论 2026 年采购计划，寒武纪在适配方面表现出色，已与字节完成所有模型适配， 未来份额有望进一步增加，同时关注海光在阿里、腾讯等大厂的进展。 预计 2026 年国产算力市场规模至少增长一倍以上，字节跳动对算力的 需求非常确定，建议重点配置国产算力作为底仓，关注相关量化股票的 投资机会。 英伟达收购 Groq 对其未来发展有何影响？ Q&A Met ...

2025年最后一个交易日，AI算力方向午后走强。云计算ETF（159890）午后拉升涨超1%，日K冲击6连阳。易点天下大涨11.46%，汉得信息涨超8%，中科星 图、万兴科技、泛微网络涨超4%，润泽科技、科大讯飞、金山办公等多股跟涨。 一方面，头部科技企业正抓紧机遇，启动大规模采购以快速补充高端算力。例如，阿里在计划采购英伟达H200的同时，也在寻求对AMDMI308芯片的采 购；字节计划试购2万块H200，其规划中的2026年AI资本开支高达1600亿元，若H200供应稳定，其投入与采购规模预计将进一步扩大。 另一方面，其他国内主要厂商的采购计划呈现"需求存在，但策略分化"的特点，百度正大力推动自研的昆仑芯AI芯片在其AI业务中的规模化应用，以减少对 外部芯片的依赖；腾讯为了获取比H200性能更强的算力，拟通过"算力租用"的间接方式，获得超过12亿美元最新B200/B300芯片使用权。 国海证券认为，本次放开强化了国产算力长期自主可控的战略必然性；考虑到主权AI投资规模庞大以及AI推理市场潜力大，AI算力需求或将维持高景气。 【中国算力规模持续提升】 根据IDC和浪潮信息的联合测算，预计2025年中国智能算 ...

Group 1 - The report discusses whether the A-share market will experience a significant drop in January 2025, similar to previous years, and identifies three main scenarios that could lead to such a decline: macroeconomic overheating leading to policy shifts, continued low sentiment exacerbated by external shocks, or unexpected events [5][11][12] - Current economic recovery is still fragile, making a policy shift unlikely, and the regulatory environment is supportive of the capital market, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5][25][26] - Historical data indicates that spring market rallies in bull years typically begin before the mandatory annual report disclosures, particularly in the tech sector [5][30][31] Group 2 - The report analyzes the relationship between industry performance prior to spring rallies and their continuation during these rallies, noting that industries that performed well before the rally tend to maintain their momentum in the early stages, with a continuation probability of 60-70% [5][33][34] - Conversely, industries that performed poorly before the rally have a 50-60% chance of outperforming in the later stages of the rally, especially if they were previously among the top performers [5][6][33][34] Group 3 - Potential catalysts for the market include the possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut in January, the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair, and further easing of real estate policies in China [5][35][36] - Specific industries to watch include media, computing, automotive, and pharmaceuticals, which have seen significant declines since November 2025, suggesting a potential rebound during the spring rally [5][42][43]

IT之家 12 月 27 日消息，埃隆・马斯克前天在 X 平台表示，他旗下的 xAI 将在五年内拥有比世界上所有机构加起来都多的 AI 算力。 值得注意的是，马斯克的这番话实际上是在回复一则 xAI 员工的帖文，当时这名员工表示，xAI 是"最适合想要进行创新的人加入的团 队"。 同时，马斯克所回应的帖文还引用了半导体研究机构 SemiAnalysis 的数据，指出 xAI 在其位于田纳西州孟菲斯的 Colossus 数据中心屋顶喷 上了"巨硬"（IT之家注：Macrohard）字样，剑指微软（Microsoft）。 目前，xAI 正在全力扩展其 AI 算力，其首个由 10 万颗英伟达 H200 组成的超算集群仅用时 19 天就完成部署，英伟达创始人兼 CEO 黄仁勋 称这一过程通常需要四年时间。与此同时，xAI 的规模也在不断扩大，马斯克称这家公司的目标是在五年内拥有 5000 万颗等效 H100 的 GPU。 不过我们目前很难判断马斯克能否在 AI 领域真正取得成功，虽然他在拥有极其庞大的资金支持，但其他公司和机构同样在烧钱以保持竞争 优势。 ...