Core Viewpoint - The House Majority Leader Scalise expresses strong confidence that the House will pass the Trump tax reform bill [1] Group 1 - Scalise's statement indicates a positive outlook for the passage of the tax reform, which may have significant implications for the U.S. economy and corporate tax rates [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead has declined, which provides some support for prices. However, the lead price continues to be under pressure due to weakening demand. Although inventories have decreased, overseas inventories remain high, significantly pressuring the lead price. Attention should be paid to the new impacts brought by changes in tariff policies. Technically, it is currently in a triangular consolidation structure, with a rebound today but the rebound strength gradually weakening. It is recommended to short on rallies [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,695 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the 3 - month lead quotation on LME is 1,986 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The 07 - 08 contract spread of Shanghai lead is 0 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 88,284 lots, down 2,414 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 711 lots, down 162 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 41,698 tons, unchanged. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 46,500 tons, down 1,928 tons; the LME lead inventory is 283,150 tons, down 1,000 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,500 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,680 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract is - 195 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 19.72 US dollars/ton, up 2.45 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 15,704 yuan, down 241 yuan; the domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory average price is 720 yuan/ton, unchanged. The production capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 51.28%, down 3.13 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 70.57%, down 3.31 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.39 tons, down 0.04 tons. The global lead ore output is 399.7 thousand tons, down 3.7 thousand tons; the lead ore import volume is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41,450 thousand pieces, down 425 thousand pieces. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,175 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources is 1,690.16 points, up 34.81 points. The monthly automobile production is 260.4 tons, down 44.06 tons; the monthly new energy vehicle production is 164.7 tons, up 7.3 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - **Tariff News**: There are negotiations and responses regarding tariffs among the US, Canada, the EU, the UK, Vietnam, and Mexico. For example, the US - Canada agreement may be reached next week, and Mexico will announce measures against US steel and aluminum tariffs next week [2] - **US Economic Data**: In May, the ADP employment number increased by 37,000, far lower than the expected 110,000. The US May ISM non - manufacturing index dropped to 49.9, the first contraction in nearly a year [2] - **Trump - related News**: Trump called for the Fed to cut interest rates, advocated canceling the debt ceiling, and had a 75 - minute call with Putin [2] 3.7 Macro - situation - The US Congressional Budget Office stated that the Trump tax bill will increase the US deficit by 2.4 trillion US dollars in 10 years. The primary lead smelters are affected by the unclear lead price, with a decline in the operating rate and output. The continuous decline of lead prices has increased the loss pressure of recycled lead, and the follow - up production increase of recycled lead is difficult [2]

贵金属日报 | 2025-06-05 ADP数据大幅低于预期 特朗普再促美联储降息 市场要闻与重要数据 昨日，在经济数据方面，5月ADP就业人数新增3.7万人，远低于预期的11万人，前值6.2万人。特朗普评ADP数据 称，"太迟先生"美联储主席鲍威尔现在必须降息。此外，他还称，债务上限应彻底取消，呼吁两党合作达成此 事。其他数据方面，美国5月ISM非制造业指数降低至49.9，将近一年来首次萎缩，预期从51.6上扬至52。而在财 政方面，特朗普税收法案将使美国赤字在10年间增加2.4万亿美元。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-06-04，沪金主力合约开于 783.10元/克，收于 782.42元/克，较前一交易日收盘 -0.09%。当日成交量为 191944手，持仓量为 180310手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 782.40 元/克，收于 785.50 元/克，较昨日午后收上 涨0.45%。 2025-06-04，沪银主力合约开于 8475元/千克，收于 8463元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 449279手，持仓量 379627手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 8,486 元/千克，收于 8, ...

Group 1 - The Republican Party, represented by Senator Crapo, expresses "very strong support" and a "very united position" regarding Trump's tax reform proposal [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges facing the U.S. economy, particularly the rising government borrowing costs and the implications of a potential increase in the national debt due to tax cuts and other fiscal policies [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Impact of Rising Debt - The U.S. economy is experiencing a second wave of challenges following the resolution of tariff issues, with rising government borrowing costs becoming increasingly evident [1]. - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating has led to a sell-off in U.S. Treasury bonds, causing yields to rise sharply, with the 30-year Treasury yield reaching 5.089%, the highest since October 2023 [2]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the Republican tax cuts could increase the deficit to about 7% of GDP, an unprecedented level for a low unemployment economy [2][3]. Group 2: Government and Consumer Borrowing Costs - As Treasury yields rise, the government faces higher interest payments on nearly $29 trillion in debt, potentially leading to increased taxes or reduced government services for citizens [4]. - The high interest rate environment not only affects government finances but also impacts consumers, as borrowing costs for significant purchases like homes and cars are linked to long-term yields [4]. Group 3: Political Stance on Fiscal Policy - There is skepticism regarding whether the Trump administration will make substantial fiscal adjustments, with Republican leaders arguing that the CBO's deficit projections are exaggerated [5]. - Analysts suggest that there will be no significant fiscal tightening in the foreseeable future, and the U.S. is likely to continue running large deficits [5][6]. - The Trump administration's previous promises to address the deficit through efficiency measures have been scaled back, indicating a lack of urgency in tackling the growing debt [6][7].

Group 1 - The U.S. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise announced that a vote on the Trump tax reform bill will take place tonight [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses concerns among bond investors regarding the U.S. government's willingness to make tough decisions to balance its budget, indicating a potential issue with national debt [1] Group 1 - Matthew Amis, the investment director at Aberdeen, highlights that the market is questioning whether the U.S. government is prepared to undertake difficult measures for budget balancing [1] - The article notes that the easing of trade tensions means tariffs will not significantly boost revenue, which could impact the government's financial strategy [1] - Recent developments regarding Trump's tax legislation suggest that U.S. debt is trending in a direction that may not align with market expectations [1]

Group 1 - The Trump tax bill, known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, successfully passed the House Budget Committee with a vote of 17 in favor and 16 against after facing significant opposition just days prior [1] - The bill aims to extend the 2017 tax cuts, significantly increase border security spending, cut various social welfare programs, limit climate change investments, and introduce innovative tax credits, with a projected tax reduction of over $4 trillion and spending cuts of at least $1.5 trillion over the next decade [2] - Despite overcoming the Budget Committee hurdle, the bill faces challenges ahead, with the House Rules Committee set to review it soon, and potential resistance anticipated in the Senate [3] Group 2 - The timeline for the bill's passage is tight, with Trump aiming for a signature by July 4, and House Speaker Johnson seeking a vote before Memorial Day [3] - The bill's future is uncertain, as it has been compared to the Titanic by Senator Ron Johnson, indicating possible significant resistance in the Senate [3] - Ongoing discussions between House Speaker Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune are aimed at ensuring the bill's swift passage [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. House Speaker Johnson indicates that the path to passing the Trump tax reform bill remains on track for next week [1] Group 1 - The statement reflects ongoing legislative efforts to advance tax reform initiatives [1] - The timing suggests potential implications for fiscal policy and economic outlook [1]